First-passage-time statistics for diffusion processes with an external random force

We present exact equations and expressions for the first-passage-time statistics of dynamical systems that are a combination of a diffusion process and a random external force modeled as dichotomous Markov noise. We prove that the mean first passage time for this system does not show any resonantlike behavior.

Free inertial processes driven by Gaussian noise: Probability distributions, anomalous diffusion and fractal behavior

We study the motion of an unbound particle under the influence of a random force modeled as Gaussian colored noise with an arbitrary correlation function. We derive exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions and find the associated solutions. We analyze in detail anomalous diffusion behaviors along with the fractal structure of the trajectories of the particle and explore possible connections between dynamical exponents of the variance and the fractal dimension of the trajectories.

Modelling diffusion of innovations in a social network

A simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information, agents decide whether to upgrade their level or not, balancing their possible benefit with the upgrading cost. A critical point where technological avalanches display a power-law behavior is also found. This critical point is characterized by a macroscopic observable that turns out to optimize technological growth in the stationary state. Analytical results supporting our findings are found for the globally coupled case.

Random diffusion and leverage effect in financial markets

We prove that Brownian market models with random diffusion coefficients provide an exact measure of the leverage effect [J-P. Bouchaud et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 228701 (2001)]. This empirical fact asserts that past returns are anticorrelated with future diffusion coefficient. Several models with random diffusion have been suggested but without a quantitative study of the leverage effect. Our analysis lets us to fully estimate all parameters involved and allows a deeper study of correlated random diffusion models that may have practical implications for many aspects of financial markets.

Self and cross-velocity correlation functions and diffusion coefficients in liquids: a molecular dynamics study of binary mixtures of soft spheres

Molecular dynamics simulation is applied to the study of the diffusion properties in binary liquid mixtures made up of soft-sphere particles with different sizes and masses. Self- and distinct velocity correlation functions and related diffusion coefficients have been calculated. Special attention has been paid to the dynamic cross correlations which have been computed through recently introduced relative mean molecular velocity correlation functions which are independent on the reference frame. The differences between the distinct velocity correlations and diffusion coefficients in different reference frames (mass-fixed, number-fixed, and solvent-fixed) are discussed.

Generalized Langevin equations: Anomalous diffusion and probability distributions

We study the motion of a particle governed by a generalized Langevin equation. We show that, when no fluctuation-dissipation relation holds, the long-time behavior of the particle may be from stationary to superdiffusive, along with subdiffusive and diffusive. When the random force is Gaussian, we derive the exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions for the position and velocity of the particle and find their solutions.

Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

Exact temporal evolution for some non-linear diffusion process

Exact solutions to FokkerPlanck equations with nonlinear drift are considered. Applications of these exact solutions for concrete models are studied. We arrive at the conclusion that for certain drifts we obtain divergent moments (and infinite relaxation time) if the diffusion process can be extended without any obstacle to the whole space. But if we introduce a potential barrier that limits the diffusion process, moments converge with a finite relaxation time.

Diffusion Spectrum Imaging after stroke shows structural changes in the contra-lateral motor network correlating with functional recovery

There is growing interest in understanding the role of the non-injured contra-lateral hemisphere in stroke recovery. In the experimental field, histological evidence has been reported that structural changes occur in the contra-lateral connectivity and circuits during stroke recovery. In humans, some recent imaging studies indicated that contra-lateral sub-cortical pathways and functional and structural cortical networks are remodeling, after stroke. Structural changes in the contra-lateral networks, however, have never been correlated to clinical recovery in patients. To determine the importance of the contra-lateral structural changes in post-stroke recovery, we selected a population of patients with motor deficits after stroke affecting the motor cortex and/or sub-cortical motor white matter. We explored i) the presence of Generalized Fractional Anisotropy (GFA) changes indicating structural alterations in the motor network of patientsâeuro? contra-lateral hemisphere as well as their longitudinal evolution ii) the correlation of GFA changes with patientsâeuro? clinical scores, stroke size and demographics data iii) and a predictive model.

Diffusion in spatially and temporarily inhomogeneous media: Effects of turbulent mixing

We consider diffusion of a passive substance C in a phase-separating nonmiscible binary alloy under turbulent mixing. The substance is assumed to have different diffusion coefficients in the pure phases A and B, leading to a spatially and temporarily dependent diffusion ¿coefficient¿ in the diffusion equation plus convective term. In this paper we consider especially the effects of a turbulent flow field coupled to both the Cahn-Hilliard type evolution equation of the medium and the diffusion equation (both, therefore, supplemented by a convective term). It is shown that the formerly observed prolonged anomalous diffusion [H. Lehr, F. Sagués, and J.M. Sancho, Phys. Rev. E 54, 5028 (1996)] is no longer seen if a flow of sufficient intensity is supplied.

Diffusion in spatially and temporarily inhomogeneous media

In this paper we consider diffusion of a passive substance C in a temporarily and spatially inhomogeneous two-dimensional medium. As a realization for the latter we choose a phase-separating medium consisting of two substances A and B, whose dynamics is determined by the Cahn-Hilliard equation. Assuming different diffusion coefficients of C in A and B, we find that the variance of the distribution function of the said substance grows less than linearly in time. We derive a simple identity for the variance using a probabilistic ansatz and are then able to identify the interface between A and B as the main cause for this nonlinear dependence. We argue that, finally, for very large times the here temporarily dependent diffusion "constant" goes like t-1/3 to a constant asymptotic value D¿. The latter is calculated approximately by employing the effective-medium approximation and by fitting the simulation data to the said time dependence.

Morphological changes in convection-diffusion-limited deposition

The effect of hydrodynamic flow upon diffusion-limited deposition on a line is investigated using a Monte Carlo model. The growth process is governed by the convection and diffusion field. The convective diffusion field is simulated by the biased-random walker resulting from a superimposed drift that represents the convective flow. The development of distinct morphologies is found with varying direction and strength of drift. By introducing a horizontal drift parallel to the deposition plate, the diffusion-limited deposit changes into a single needle inclined to the plate. The width of the needle decreases with increasing strength of drift. The angle between the needle and the plate is about 45° at high flow rate. In the presence of an inclined drift to the plate, the convection-diffusion-limited deposit leads to the formation of a characteristic columnar morphology. In the limiting case where the convection dominates, the deposition process is equivalent to ballistic deposition onto an inclined surface.