Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design

As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Developing a robust self evaluation framework for active learning:the first stage of an ERASMUS+ project (QAEMarketPlace4HEI)

In ensuring the quality of learning and teaching in Higher Education, self-evaluation is an important component of the process. An example would be the approach taken within the CDIO community whereby self-evaluation against the CDIO standards is part of the quality assurance process. Eight European universities (Reykjavik University, Iceland; Turku University of Applied Sciences, Finland; Aarhus University, Denmark; Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, Finland; Ume? University, Sweden; Telecom Bretagne, France; Aston University, United Kingdom; Queens University Belfast, United Kingdom) are engaged in an EU funded Erasmus + project that is exploring the quality assurance process associated with active learning. The development of a new self-evaluation framework that feeds into a ?Marketplace? where participating institutions can be paired up and then engage in peer evaluations and sharing around each institutions approach to and implementation of active learning. All of the partner institutions are engaged in the application of CDIO within their engineering programmes and this has provided a common starting point for the partnership to form and the project to be developed. Although the initial focus will be CDIO, the longer term aim is that the approach could be of value beyond CDIO and within other disciplines. The focus of this paper is the process by which the self-evaluation framework is being developed and the form of the draft framework. In today?s Higher Education environment, the need to comply with Quality Assurance standards is an ever present feature of programme development and review. When engaging in a project that spans several countries, the wealth of applicable standards and guidelines is significant. In working towards the development of a robust Self Evaluation Framework for this project, the project team decided to take a wide view of the available resources to ensure a full consideration of different requirements and practices. The approach to developing the framework considered: a) institutional standards and processes b) national standards and processes e.g. QAA in the UK c) documents relating to regional / global accreditation schemes e.g. ABET d) requirements / guidelines relating to particular learning and teaching frameworks e.g. CDIO. The resulting draft self-evaluation framework is to be implemented within the project team to start with to support the initial ?Marketplace? pairing process. Following this initial work, changes will be considered before a final version is made available as part of the project outputs. Particular consideration has been paid to the extent of the framework, as a key objective of the project is to ensure that the approach to quality assurance has impact but is not overly demanding in terms of time or paperwork. In other words that it is focused on action and value added to staff, students and the programmes being considered.

Disability Discrimination: Obesity and the Court of Justice of the European Union’s decision in Karsten Kaltoft v Billund Kommune Case C-354/13 ECJ

Walker and Karsten are two important decisions in disability discrimination law – not solely on the basis of their legal and practical repercussions for the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU), respectively, but because they capture the very ideological spirit of domestic and European anti-discrimination legislation. The former directly relates to disability discrimination in the UK and the entire EU is feeling the brunt of the Court of Justice of the European Union’s decision in the latter. This article explores the impact of both these decisions and to what extent the obese or those suffering from a functional overlay are now protected from being discriminated against by the Framework Directive 2000/78 and the United Kingdom’s Equality Act 2010.

Return Migration in the Ecuadorian and Bolivian population: motivations, strategies and discourses

This article analyses the motivations for return migration among the Ecuadorians and Bolivians who, after living in Spain, returned to their countries of origin during the economic crisis that started in 2008. From the analysis of 22 interviews in-depth which took place in Ecuador and 38 in Bolivia to women, men and young people from migrant families, this decision-making process is shown to be embedded into a gendered dynamics of relationships. Particular detail is given to affective and economic elements that had an influence on the decision to return, as well as to the strategies deployed to project their readjustment back in origin. Males and females occupy differential positions within the family, work and social circle, their expectations being built in a gendered manner. Despite the fact migration has brought women greater economic power within the family group, their reintegration upon return redefines their role as main managers in the household and the dynamics that allow their social reproduction. Men, for their part, aspire to refresh their role as providers in spite of their frail labour position upon return. Social mobility for females is passed on through generations by a strong investment on education for their daughters and sons, while for males this mobility revolves around setting up family businesses and around their demonstrative abilities.

Cooperative or collaborative learning: Is there a difference in university students’ perceptions?

The hypothesis that the same educational objective, raised as cooperative or collaborative learning in university teaching does not affect students’ perceptions of the learning model, leads this study. It analyses the reflections of two students groups of engineering that shared the same educational goals implemented through two different methodological active learning strategies: Simulation as cooperative learning strategy and Problem-based Learning as a collaborative one. The different number of participants per group (eighty-five and sixty-five, respectively) as well as the use of two active learning strategies, either collaborative or cooperative, did not show differences in the results from a qualitative perspective.

A generic method of engagement to elicit regional coastal management options

Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions.

The significant role of third-party logistics (3pl) operators as fosterers of organizational performance in colombian companies

La eliminación de barreras entre países es una consecuencia que llega con la globalización y con los acuerdos de TLC firmados en los últimos años. Esto implica un crecimiento significativo del comercio exterior, lo cual se ve reflejado en un aumento de la complejidad de la cadena de suministro de las empresas. Debido a lo anterior, se hace necesaria la búsqueda de alternativas para obtener altos niveles de productividad y competitividad dentro de las empresas en Colombia, ya que el entorno se ha vuelto cada vez más complejo, saturado de competencia no sólo nacional, sino también internacional. Para mantenerse en una posición competitiva favorable, las compañías deben enfocarse en las actividades que le agregan valor a su negocio, por lo cual una de las alternativas que se están adoptando hoy en día es la tercerización de funciones logísticas a empresas especializadas en el manejo de estos servicios. Tales empresas son los Proveedores de servicios logísticos (LSP), quienes actúan como agentes externos a la organización al gestionar, controlar y proporcionar actividades logísticas en nombre de un contratante. Las actividades realizadas pueden incluir todas o parte de las actividades logísticas, pero como mínimo la gestión y ejecución del transporte y almacenamiento deben estar incluidos (Berglund, 2000). El propósito del documento es analizar el papel de los Operadores Logísticos de Tercer nivel (3PL) como promotores del desempeño organizacional en las empresas colombianas, con el fin de informar a las MIPYMES acerca de los beneficios que se obtienen al trabajar con LSP como un medio para mejorar la posición competitiva del país.

Mercadeo farmacéutico de productos bajo prescripción: efectos de las estrategias Direct-to-Consumer-Advertising en el comportamiento de los consumidores y de prescripción de los médicos

Este proyecto se origina en el interés de analizar las estrategias actuales de promoción de productos farmacéuticos, en el marco del debate sobre el efecto persuasivo o informativo que la publicidad directa tiene sobre los consumidores. El objetivo es determinar el efecto de las estrategias de promoción directa para consumidores (Direct to Consumer Advertising [DTCA]) sobre el comportamiento de compra de pacientes y las prescripciones que formulan los médicos en el mercado de productos bajo receta en Estados Unidos. Para tal fin se propuso realizar una monografía que incluyera una revisión de literatura de carácter argumentativo, consultando información de nivel secundario en bases de datos científicas cuyos contenidos obedecieran a criterios metodológicos determinados por la naturaleza argumentativa del estudio. Adicionalmente, se analizó el debate sobre estos anuncios a la luz de dos estudios realizados a pacientes con cáncer de seno, próstata y colon, liderados por el Pennsylvania Cancer Registry con los productos biofarmacéuticos Avodart® y Flomax®. Finalmente, la investigación se fundamentó en la relación del mercado farmacéutico en Estados Unidos con cada uno de los agentes que interactúan en él; consumidores, médicos prescriptores y empresas farmacéuticas, así como el valor que estos comparten través de dichas interacciones. Se concluye que el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores está determinado por la naturaleza de la patología que padecen y el comportamiento de los profesionales que prescriben a sus pacientes se ve influenciado por los anuncios DTCA.

Wavelets And Adaptive Grids For The Discontinuous Galerkin Method

In this paper, space adaptivity is introduced to control the error in the numerical solution of hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. The reference numerical scheme is a new version of the discontinuous Galerkin method, which uses an implicit diffusive term in the direction of the streamlines, for stability purposes. The decision whether to refine or to unrefine the grid in a certain location is taken according to the magnitude of wavelet coefficients, which are indicators of local smoothness of the numerical solution. Numerical solutions of the nonlinear Euler equations illustrate the efficiency of the method. © Springer 2005.

A regionalização intramunicipal do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS): um estudo de caso do município de São Paulo-SP, Brasil

A regionalização tem sido apontada como um dos principais desafios para viabilizar a equidade e a integralidade do SUS. Este artigo tem como objetivo avaliar o processo de implementação de um projeto de organização de regiões de saúde no município de São Paulo. Para tanto, foi realizado um estudo de caso em uma região selecionada desse município, a partir do referencial da análise de implantação, utilizando-se como fonte de dados documentos da gestão e entrevistas semiestruturadas com informantes-chave da gestão municipal 2005-2008. A análise temática evidenciou que o projeto de regionalização idealizado no início da gestão não foi efetivamente implementado. Dentre os fatores que interferiram nesse insucesso, destacam-se: a) a Secretaria Municipal de Saúde (SMS), além de seu caráter centralizador, manteve estruturas político-administrativas independentes para a gestão da atenção básica e da assistência hospitalar; b) a SMS não assumiu a gestão, de fato, de ambulatórios e hospitais estaduais; c) o poder institucional e a resistência dos hospitais em se integrar ao sistema de saúde. Discute-se, ainda, a necessidade de avançar na descentralização intramunicipal do SUS e buscar novas estratégias para a construção de pactos que consigam superar as resistências e articular instituições historicamente consolidadas, visando uma regionalização cooperativa e solidária.

Maternal decision on obtaining prenatal care: a study in Brazil

Objective: to address the social aspects of pregnancy and the views of pregnant women regarding prenatal assistance in Brazil. Design: this qualitative study was focused on describing the Social Representations of prenatal care held by pregnant women. The discourse of the collective subject (DCS) framework was used to analyse the data collected, within the theoretical background of social representations, as proposed and developed by Serge Moscovici. Participants and setting: 21 pregnant women who were users of the publicly funded Brazilian unified health-care system and resided in the area served by its family health programme in a low- to middle-income neighbourhood on the outskirts of Campo Grande, the capital of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, in southwestern Brazil. Data were collected by conducting in-depth, face-to-face interviews from January to October 2006. Findings: all participants were married. Formal education of the participants was less than five years in four cases, between five and eight years in six cases, and greater than 11 years in 10 cases. Nine participants had informal jobs and earned up to US$ 200 per month, four paricipants had administrative jobs and earned over US$ 500 per month, and eight participants did not work. No specific racial/ethnic background predominated. Lack of adherence to prenatal care allowed for the identification of two DCS themes: `organisation of prenatal care services` and `lifestyle features`. Key conclusions: the respondents were found to have negative feelings about pregnancy which manifest as many fears, including the fear of harming their children`s health, of being punished during labour, and of being reprimanded by health-care professionals for overlooking their prenatal care, in addition to the insecurity felt towards the infant and self. Implications for practice: the findings reveal that communication between pregnant women and healthcare professionals has been ineffective and that prenatal care has not been effective for the group interviewed-features that are likely to be found among other low- to middle-income groups living elsewhere in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning about knowledge management for improving environmental impact assessment in a government agency: The Western Australian experience

How does knowledge management (KM) by a government agency responsible for environmental impact assessment (EIA) potentially contribute to better environmental assessment and management practice? Staff members at government agencies in charge of the EIA process are knowledge workers who perform judgement-oriented tasks highly reliant on individual expertise, but also grounded on the agency`s knowledge accumulated over the years. Part of an agency`s knowledge can be codified and stored in an organizational memory, but is subject to decay or loss if not properly managed. The EIA agency operating in Western Australia was used as a case study. Its KM initiatives were reviewed, knowledge repositories were identified and staff surveyed to gauge the utilisation and effectiveness of such repositories in enabling them to perform EIA tasks. Key elements of KM are the preparation of substantive guidance and spatial information management. It was found that treatment of cumulative impacts on the environment is very limited and information derived from project follow-up is not properly captured and stored, thus not used to create new knowledge and to improve practice and effectiveness. Other opportunities for improving organizational learning include the use of after-action reviews. The learning about knowledge management in EIA practice gained from Western Australian experience should be of value to agencies worldwide seeking to understand where best to direct their resources for their own knowledge repositories and environmental management practice. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult. The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing. Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on `what is strategic` is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.