975 resultados para Predictive-value
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Hintergrund: Die Systembiopsie gilt als Goldstandard zum Nachweis eines Prostatakarzinoms, obwohl ein relevanter Anteil an Prostatakarzinomen nicht diagnostiziert wird. Wir wollten mit unserer Arbeit die Frage beantworten, ob mittels elastographisch gezielter Biopsien die Prostatakarzinom-Detektion im Vergleich zur Goldstandard-Systembiopsie verbessert werden kann. Material und Methode: 152 Patienten wurden in einer prospektiven Studie einer 12-fachen Prostata-Systembiopsie unterzogen. In Linksseitenlagerung wurde dabei aus jedem der vordefinierten 6 Prostatasegmente je 1 laterale und 1 mediale Stanze entnommen. Elastographisch suspekte Areale wurden zusätzlich gezielt biopsiert. Als statistisch signifikant wurde p<0,05 angenommen. Ergebnisse: Bei 62 der 152 Patienten (40,8%) wurde ein Prostatakarzinom diagnostiziert. Die Detektionsrate der Systembiopsie betrug 39,5% (60/152), die Detektionsrate der Elastographie 29,6% (45/152). Somit war die Systembiopsie der elastographisch gezielten Biopsie signifikant überlegen (p=0,039).Jedoch war die Wahrscheinlichkeit mit einer Prostatastanze ein Karzinomherd zu entdecken, für die elastographischen Biopsien 3,7-fach höher als für die Systembiopsien. Die Sensitivität der Elastographie betrug 72,6% und die Spezifität 66,6%. Der positive Vorhersagewert für die Elastographie war 60%, der negative Vorhersagewert 78%. Die Kombination von Systembiopsie und elastographisch gezielten Biopsien bot die höchste Detektionsrate. In der rechten Prostatahälfte (48%) verzeichneten wir doppelt so viele elastographisch falsch-positive Befunde wie in der linken Prostatahälfte (25%). Desweiteren fanden sich am häufigsten falsch-positive Befunde im Prostata-Apex (46%) und am seltensten in der Prostata-Basis (29%). Schlussfolgerung: In unserer Studie war die elastographisch gezielte Biopsie der Systembiopsie signifikant unterlegen (p=0,039). Die Kombination von Systembiopsie mit elastographisch gezielten Biopsien bot die höchste Detektionsrate und kann daher empfohlen werden. Die Auffälligkeiten in der Segment-bezogenen Auswertung und ein möglicher Einfluss der Patienten-Lagerung müssen durch weitere Studien überprüft werden.rn
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Die Arzneimittelcompliance hat eine hohe Vorhersagekraft für den Ausgang einer Organtransplantation. Allerdings wurden soweit keine Studien zur Arzneimittelcompliance mittels eletronischen Compliancemessung bei Dialyse- und Leberzirrhosepatienten durchgeführt. Das primäre Ziel dieser Studie war die Arzneimittelcompliance dieser beiden Patientenkollektive zu evaluieren und als sekundäres Ziel wurden die Einflussfaktoren von Non-Compliance untersucht. rnLeberzirrhosepatinten, die Propranolol und Dialysepatienten, die Phosphatbinder, jeweils 3 x tgl. einnahmen, konnten in der Studie teilnehmen. Die Arzneimittelcompliance wurde mittels MEMSTM über einen Zeitraum von jeweils 6 Monaten bestimmt. Des Weiteren wurde nach Einflussfaktoren wie die demopraphischen Daten, Depression, Lebensqualität und der Gesundheitszustand, bei den Dialysepatienten zusätzlich die Formulierung der Phosphatbinder und die Anzahl evaluiert. Zwischen den organinsuffizienten Patientenkollektiven war ein signifikanter Unterschied in der Dosing Compliancerate auszumachen (p<0,023). Die mittlere DC Rate war bei 61%±6% für Leberzirrhosepatienten im Vergleich zu 43%±5% in Dialysepatienten. Nur 10 Leberzirrhosepatienten (30%) and 6 Dialysepatienten (17%) konnten als compliant eingestuft werden. Je höher die Phosphatbinderdosen waren, umso niedrigere Dosing Complianceraten wurden erzielt. Bei 1,5-3 Tabletten pro Tag betrug die Compliancerate 55%±8% (n=16), bei 4-6 Tabletten pro Tag nur noch 37%±7% (n=15) und bei mehr als 7 Tabletten lediglich 21%±10% (n=5) (p<0,036). Bei den Dialysepatienten war jedoch auffällig, dass die Dosing Compliancerate in Abhängigkeit von der Anzahl der dokumentierten Erkrankungen inkl. Grunderkrankung stieg (Dosing Compliancerate 34%±9% für ≤1 Grunderkrankung, 42%±6% für 1-4 Komorbiditäten, 83%±3% für ≥5 Komorbiditäten; p<0,036).Das geringe Patientenwissen über die Arzneimittel und die Erkrankung und die niedrige Compliancerate bedürfen weitere Untersuchungen um die Aspekte zu verbessern. Diese Studie zeigte das eine pharmazeutische Betreuung schon vor einer Transplantation benötigt wird. Aber eine pharmazeutische Betreuung ist sehr kosten- und zeitintensiv. Vielleicht müssen neue Modelle der pharmazeutische Betreuung untersucht werden oder non-compliante Patienten müssen noch besser identifiziert werden für eine selektive pharmazeutische Betreuung.
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OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.
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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.
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Prediction of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is essential. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement of brain volume may be of predictive value but sophisticated MRI techniques are often inaccessible in clinical practice. The corpus callosum index (CCI) is a normalized measurement that reflects changes of brain volume. We investigated medical records and 533 MRI scans at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up of 169 MS patients (mean age 42 +/- 11 years, 86% relapsing-remitting MS, time since first relapse 11 +/- 9 years). CCI at diagnosis was 0.345 +/- 0.04 and correlated with duration of disease (p = 0.002; r = -0.234) and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score at diagnosis (r = -0.428; p < 0.001). Linear regression analyses identified age, duration of disease, relapse rate and EDSS at diagnosis as independent predictors for disability after mean of 7.1 years (Nagelkerkes' R:0.56). Annual CCI decrease was 0.01 +/- 0.02 (annual tissue loss: 1.3%). In secondary progressive MS patients, CCI decrease was double compared to that in relapsing-remitting MS patients (p = 0.04). There was a trend of greater CCI decrease in untreated patients compared to those who received disease modifying drugs (p = 0.2). CCI is an easy to use MRI marker for estimating brain atrophy in patients with MS. Brain atrophy as measured with CCI was associated with disability progression but it was not an independent predictor of long-term disability.
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Acute type A aortic dissection is a serious emergency with a mortality rate of up to 40% within the first 24 h when left untreated. Surgical therapy needs to be initiated promptly. Due to this urgent situation, preoperative evaluation of the coronary arteries is not routinely performed in these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of 64-slice computed tomography angiography (CTA) for postoperative coronary artery assessment in these patients. Ten consecutive patients with two or more cardiovascular risk factors were prospectively enrolled. Patients had type A aortic dissection treated surgically with a supracoronary graft of the ascending aorta. Performance of CTA to exclude significant stenosis (>50% lumen narrowing) and/or coronary artery dissection was compared with quantitative coronary angiography. A total of 147 segments were evaluated. Three segments (2%) were excluded from analysis. CTA correctly assessed one of three significant stenoses in three patients and correctly excluded coronary artery disease (CAD) in six of ten patients. One patient was rated false positive. Overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of CT for identifying coronary artery disease by segment was 98%, 33%, 99%, 50%, and 99%, respectively (P<0.05). By patient, it was 70%, 33%, 86%, 50%, and 75%, respectively. No coronary artery dissection was found. Noninvasive CTA may be a viable alternative to conventional angiography for postoperative coronary artery evaluation in patients with surgically treated type A aortic dissection and cardiovascular risk factors. An NPV of 99% should allow for reliable exclusion of CAD. Further studies with higher patient numbers are warranted.
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Objective : To compare two scoring systems: the Huddart/Bodenham system (HB system) and the Bauru-BCLP yardstick (BCLP yardstick), which classify treatment outcome in terms of dental arch relationships in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). The predictive value of these scoring systems for treatment outcome was also evaluated. Design : Retrospective longitudinal study. Patients : Dental arch relationships of 43 CBCLP patients were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years. Setting : Treatment outcome in BCLP patients using two scoring systems. Main Outcome Measures : For each age group, the HB scores were correlated with the BCLP yardstick scores using Spearman's correlation coefficient. The predictive value of the two scoring systems was evaluated by backward regression analysis. Results : Intraobserver Kappa values for the BCLP yardstick scoring for the two observers were .506 and .627, respectively, and the interobserver reliability ranged from .427 and .581. The intraobserver reliability for the HB system ranged from .92 to .97 and the interobserver reliability from .88 to .96. The BCLP yardstick scores of 6 and 9 years together were predictors for the outcome at 12 years (explained variance 41.3%). Adding the incisor and lateral HB scores in the regression model increased the explained variance to 67%. Conclusions : The BCLP yardstick and the HB system are reliable scoring systems for evaluation of dental arch relationships of CBCLP patients. The HB system categorizes treatment outcome into similar categories as the BCLP yardstick. In case a more sensitive measure of treatment outcome is needed, selectively both scoring systems should be used.
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Although the ischial spine sign (ISS) has been advocated to detect acetabular retroversion, it is unknown whether the sign is valid on anteroposterior (AP) pelvic radiographs with tilted or rotated pelves. We therefore evaluated reliability of the ISS as a tool for diagnosing acetabular retroversion in the presence of considerable pelvic tilt and/or malrotation. We obtained radiographs of 20 cadaver pelves in 19 different malorientations resulting in 380 pelvis images (760 hips) for evaluation. In addition, 129 clinical radiographs of patients' hips that had varying pelvis orientations were reviewed. We found an overall sensitivity of 81% (90%), specificity of 70% (71%), positive predictive value of 77% (80.7%), and negative predictive value of 75% (85%) in the cadaver (patient) hips. Our data suggest the ISS is a valid tool for diagnosing acetabular retroversion on plain radiographs taken using a standardized technique regardless of the degree of pelvic tilt and rotation.
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Procalcitonin has been well established as an important marker of sepsis and systemic infection. The authors evaluated the diagnostic and predictive value of calcitonin and its prohormone procalcitonin in medullary thyroid cancer.
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We hypothesized that bone SPECT combined with multiplanar reconstructed CT can identify and target the pain-inducing focus in the foot and can be used to successfully guide anaesthetic infiltrations. Therefore we prospectively investigated feasibility and predictive value of bone SPECT/CT for image guided diagnostic infiltrations in patients with chronic foot pain.
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There is a demand for technologies able to assess the perfusion of surgical flaps quantitatively and reliably to avoid ischemic complications. The aim of this study is to test a new high-speed high-definition laser Doppler imaging (LDI) system (FluxEXPLORER, Microvascular Imaging, Lausanne, Switzerland) in terms of preoperative mapping of the vascular supply (perforator vessels) and postoperative flow monitoring. The FluxEXPLORER performs perfusion mapping of an area 9 x 9 cm with a resolution of 256 x 256 pixels within 6 s in high-definition imaging mode. The sensitivity and predictability to localize perforators is expressed by the coincidence of preoperatively assessed LDI high flow spots with intraoperatively verified perforators in nine patients. 18 free flaps are monitored before, during, and after total ischemia. 63% of all verified perforators correspond to a high flow spot, and 38% of all high flow spots correspond to a verified perforator (positive predictive value). All perfused flaps reveal a value of above 221 perfusion units (PUs), and all values obtained in the ischemic flaps are beneath 187 PU. In summary, we conclude that the present LDI system can serve as a reliable, fast, and easy-to-handle tool to detect ischemia in free flaps, whereas perforator vessels cannot be detected appropriately.
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Treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) that present with arterial hypotension or shock because of the high risk of death in this setting. For haemodynamically stable patients with PE, the categorization of risk for subgroups may assist with decision-making regarding PE therapy. Clinical models [e.g. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of overall death in the first 3 months after the diagnosis of PE, and such patients might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. Though some evidence suggests that a subset of high-risk normotensive patients with PE may have a reasonable risk to benefit ratio for thrombolytic therapy, single markers of right ventricular dysfunction (e.g. echocardiography, spiral computed tomography, or brain natriuretic peptide testing) and myocardial injury (e.g. cardiac troponin T or I testing) have an insufficient positive predictive value for PE-specific mortality to drive decision-making toward such therapy. Recommendations for outpatient treatment or thrombolytic therapy for patients with PE necessitate further development of prognostic models and conduct of clinical trials that assess various treatment strategies.
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The cognitive mechanisms underlying personal neglect are not well known. One theory postulates that personal neglect is due to a disorder of contralesional body representation. In the present study, we have investigated whether personal neglect is best explained by impairments in the representation of the contralesional side of the body, in particular, or a dysfunction of the mental representation of the contralesional space in general. For this, 22 patients with right hemisphere cerebral lesions (7 with personal neglect, 15 without personal neglect) and 13 healthy controls have been studied using two experimental tasks measuring representation of the body and extrapersonal space. In the tasks, photographs of left and right hands as well as left and right rear-view mirrors presented from the front and the back had to be judged as left or right. Our results show that patients with personal neglect made more errors when asked to judge stimuli of left hands and left rear-view mirrors than either patients without personal neglect or healthy controls. Furthermore, regression analyses indicated that errors in interpreting left hands were the best predictor of personal neglect, while other variables such as extrapersonal neglect, somatosensory or motor impairments, or deficits in left extrapersonal space representation had no predictive value of personal neglect. These findings suggest that deficient body representation is the major mechanism underlying personal neglect.
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We aimed to evaluate whether carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) or the presence of plaque can confer additional predictive value of future cardiovascular (CV) ischemic events in patients with pre-existing atherosclerotic vascular disease. We identified 2317 patients enrolled in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry who had atherosclerotic vascular disease and baseline CIMT measurements. The entire range of CIMT was divided into quartiles and the fourth quartile (? 1.5 mm) was defined as carotid plaque. Mean ± standard deviation baseline CIMT was 1.31 ± 0.65 mm. Associated CV ischemic events and vascular-related hospitalizations were evaluated over a 2-year follow-up. There was a positive increase in adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (p = 0.04 for trend) and the quadruple endpoint (CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, hospitalization for CV events) with increasing quartiles of CIMT (p = 0.0008 for trend), which was mainly driven by the fourth quartile (carotid plaque). HRs for all-cause mortality, CV death, CV death/MI/stroke and the quadruple endpoint comparing the highest (carotid plaque) with the lowest CIMT quartile were 2.09 (95% CI, 1.07-4.10; p = 0.03); 2.49 (1.10-5.67; p = 0.03); 1.71 (1.10-2.67; p = 0.02); and 1.73 (1.31-2.27; p = 0.0001). In conclusion, our analyses suggest that the presence of carotid plaque, rather than the thickness of intima-media, appears to be associated with increased risk of CV morbidity and mortality, but confirmation of these findings in other population and prospective studies is required.
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BACKGROUND: To develop risk-adapted prevention of psychosis, an accurate estimation of the individual risk of psychosis at a given time is needed. Inclusion of biological parameters into multilevel prediction models is thought to improve predictive accuracy of models on the basis of clinical variables. To this aim, mismatch negativity (MMN) was investigated in a sample clinically at high risk, comparing individuals with and without subsequent conversion to psychosis. METHODS: At baseline, an auditory oddball paradigm was used in 62 subjects meeting criteria of a late risk at-state who remained antipsychotic-naive throughout the study. Median follow-up period was 32 months (minimum of 24 months in nonconverters, n = 37). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed to analyze the MMN recorded at frontocentral electrodes; additional comparisons with healthy controls (HC, n = 67) and first-episode schizophrenia patients (FES, n = 33) were performed. Predictive value was evaluated by a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Compared with nonconverters, duration MMN in converters (n = 25) showed significantly reduced amplitudes across the six frontocentral electrodes; the same applied in comparison with HC, but not FES, whereas the duration MMN in in nonconverters was comparable to HC and larger than in FES. A prognostic score was calculated based on a Cox regression model and stratified into two risk classes, which showed significantly different survival curves. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the duration MMN is significantly reduced in at-risk subjects converting to first-episode psychosis compared with nonconverters and may contribute not only to the prediction of conversion but also to a more individualized risk estimation and thus risk-adapted prevention.