850 resultados para Poisson Mixed Model
Resumo:
This mixed-methods study examined effects of a staff development model on instructional practices and dispositions of P-12 teachers. The model design was guided by participants’ varying developmental levels and their values and beliefs about teaching and learning. The study adds to our understanding of the need for teacher-centered professional development.
Resumo:
During the past three decades, the use of roundabouts has increased throughout the world due to their greater benefits in comparison with intersections controlled by traditional means. Roundabouts are often chosen because they are widely associated with low accident rates, lower construction and operating costs, and reasonable capacities and delay. ^ In the planning and design of roundabouts, special attention should be given to the movement of pedestrians and bicycles. As a result, there are several guidelines for the design of pedestrian and bicycle treatments at roundabouts that increase the safety of both pedestrians and bicyclists at existing and proposed roundabout locations. Different design guidelines have differing criteria for handling pedestrians and bicyclists at roundabout locations. Although all of the investigated guidelines provide better safety (depending on the traffic conditions at a specific location), their effects on the performance of the roundabout have not been examined yet. ^ Existing roundabout analysis software packages provide estimates of capacity and performance characteristics. This includes characteristics such as delay, queue lengths, stop rates, effects of heavy vehicles, crash frequencies, and geometric delays, as well as fuel consumption, pollutant emissions and operating costs for roundabouts. None of these software packages, however, are capable of determining the effects of various pedestrian crossing locations, nor the effect of different bicycle treatments on the performance of roundabouts. ^ The objective of this research is to develop simulation models capable of determining the effect of various pedestrian and bicycle treatments at single-lane roundabouts. To achieve this, four models were developed. The first model simulates a single-lane roundabout without bicycle and pedestrian traffic. The second model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and mixed flow bicyclists. The third model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a combined pedestrian and bicycle crossing, while the fourth model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and a bicycle lane at the outer perimeter of the roundabout for the bicycles. Traffic data was collected at a modern roundabout in Boca Raton, Florida. ^ The results of this effort show that installing a pedestrian crossing on the roundabout approach will have a negative impact on the entry flow, while the downstream approach will benefit from the newly created gaps by pedestrians. Also, it was concluded that a bicycle lane configuration is more beneficial for all users of the roundabout instead of the mixed flow or combined crossing. Installing the pedestrian crossing at one-car length is more beneficial for pedestrians than two- and three-car lengths. Finally, it was concluded that the effect of the pedestrian crossing on the vehicle queues diminishes as the distance between the crossing and the roundabout increases. ^
Resumo:
A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.
Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.
The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.
The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.
All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.
Resumo:
Canadian young people are increasingly more connected through technological devices. This computer-mediated communication (CMC) can result in heightened connection and social support but can also lead to inadequate personal and physical connections. As technology evolves, its influence on health and well-being is important to investigate, especially among youth. This study aims to investigate the potential influences of computer-mediated communication (CMC) on the health of Canadian youth, using both quantitative and qualitative research approaches. This mixed-methods study utilized data from the 2013-2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey for Canada (n=30,117) and focus group data involving Ontario youth (7 groups involving 40 youth). In the quantitative component, a random-effects multilevel Poisson regression was employed to identify the effects of CMC on loneliness, stratified to explore interaction with family communication quality. A qualitative, inductive content analysis was applied to the focus group transcripts using a grounded theory inspired methodology. Through open line-by-line coding followed by axial coding, main categories and themes were identified. The quality of family communication modified the association between CMC use and loneliness. Among youth experiencing the highest quartile of family communication, daily use of verbal and social media CMC was significantly associated with reports of loneliness. The qualitative analysis revealed two overarching concepts that: (1) the health impacts of CMC are multidimensional and (2) there exists a duality of both positive and negative influences of CMC on health. Four themes were identified within this framework: (1) physical activity, (2) mental and emotional disturbance, (3) mindfulness, and (4) relationships. Overall, there is a high proportion of loneliness among Canadian youth, but this is not uniform for all. The associations between CMC and health are influenced by external and contextual factors, including family communication quality. Further, the technologically rich world in which young people live has a diverse impact on their health. For youth, their relationships with others and the context of CMC use shape overall influences on their health.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Considering the high rates of pain as well as its under-management in long-term care (LTC) settings, research is needed to explore innovations in pain management that take into account limited resource realities. It has been suggested that nurse practitioners, working within an inter-professional model, could potentially address the under-management of pain in LTC.
OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the effectiveness of implementing a nurse practitioner-led, inter-professional pain management team in LTC in improving (a) pain-related resident outcomes; (b) clinical practice behaviours (e.g., documentation of pain assessments, use of non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions); and, (c) quality of pain medication prescribing practices.
METHODS: A mixed method design was used to evaluate a nurse practitioner-led pain management team, including both a quantitative and qualitative component. Using a controlled before-after study, six LTC homes were allocated to one of three groups: 1) a nurse practitioner-led pain team (full intervention); 2) nurse practitioner but no pain management team (partial intervention); or, 3) no nurse practitioner, no pain management team (control group). In total, 345 LTC residents were recruited to participate in the study; 139 residents for the full intervention group, 108 for the partial intervention group, and 98 residents for the control group. Data was collected in Canada from 2010 to 2012.
RESULTS: Implementing a nurse practitioner-led pain team in LTC significantly reduced residents' pain and improved functional status compared to usual care without access to a nurse practitioner. Positive changes in clinical practice behaviours (e.g., assessing pain, developing care plans related to pain management, documenting effectiveness of pain interventions) occurred over the intervention period for both the nurse practitioner-led pain team and nurse practitioner-only groups; these changes did not occur to the same extent, if at all, in the control group. Qualitative analysis highlighted the perceived benefits of LTC staff about having access to a nurse practitioner and benefits of the pain team, along with barriers to managing pain in LTC.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study showed that implementing a nurse practitioner-led pain team can significantly improve resident pain and functional status as well as clinical practice behaviours of LTC staff. LTC homes should employ a nurse practitioner, ideally located onsite as opposed to an offsite consultative role, to enhance inter-professional collaboration and facilitate more consistent and timely access to pain management.
Resumo:
A new variant of the Element-Free Galerkin (EFG) method, that combines the diffraction method, to characterize the crack tip solution, and the Heaviside enrichment function for representing discontinuity due to a crack, has been used to model crack propagation through non-homogenous materials. In the case of interface crack propagation, the kink angle is predicted by applying the maximum tangential principal stress (MTPS) criterion in conjunction with consideration of the energy release rate (ERR). The MTPS criterion is applied to the crack tip stress field described by both the stress intensity factor (SIF) and the T-stress, which are extracted using the interaction integral method. The proposed EFG method has been developed and applied for 2D case studies involving a crack in an orthotropic material, crack along an interface and a crack terminating at a bi-material interface, under mechanical or thermal loading; this is done to demonstrate the advantages and efficiency of the proposed methodology. The computed SIFs, T-stress and the predicted interface crack kink angles are compared with existing results in the literature and are found to be in good agreement. An example of crack growth through a particle-reinforced composite materials, which may involve crack meandering around the particle, is reported.
Resumo:
Tests for dependence of continuous, discrete and mixed continuous-discrete variables are ubiquitous in science. The goal of this paper is to derive Bayesian alternatives to frequentist null hypothesis significance tests for dependence. In particular, we will present three Bayesian tests for dependence of binary, continuous and mixed variables. These tests are nonparametric and based on the Dirichlet Process, which allows us to use the same prior model for all of them. Therefore, the tests are “consistent” among each other, in the sense that the probabilities that variables are dependent computed with these tests are commensurable across the different types of variables being tested. By means of simulations with artificial data, we show the effectiveness of the new tests.
Resumo:
Current trends in the automotive industry have placed increased importance on engine downsizing for passenger vehicles. Engine downsizing often results in reduced power output and turbochargers have been relied upon to restore the power output and maintain drivability. As improved power output is required across a wide range of engine operating conditions, it is necessary for the turbocharger to operate effectively at both design and off-design conditions. One off-design condition of considerable importance for turbocharger turbines is low velocity ratio operation, which refers to the combination of high exhaust gas velocity and low turbine rotational speed. Conventional radial flow turbines are constrained to achieve peak efficiency at the relatively high velocity ratio of 0.7, due the requirement to maintain a zero inlet blade angle for structural reasons. Several methods exist to potentially shift turbine peak efficiency to lower velocity ratios. One method is to utilize a mixed flow turbine as an alternative to a radial flow turbine. In addition to radial and circumferential components, the flow entering a mixed flow turbine also has an axial component. This allows the flow to experience a non-zero inlet blade angle, potentially shifting peak efficiency to a lower velocity ratio when compared to an equivalent radial flow turbine.
This study examined the effects of varying the flow conditions at the inlet to a mixed flow turbine and evaluated the subsequent impact on performance. The primary parameters examined were average inlet flow angle, the spanwise distribution of flow angle across the inlet and inlet flow cone angle. The results have indicated that the inlet flow angle significantly influenced the degree of reaction across the rotor and the turbine efficiency. The rotor studied was a custom in-house design based on a state-of-the-art radial flow turbine design. A numerical approach was used as the basis for this investigation and the numerical model has been validated against experimental data obtained from the cold flow turbine test rig at Queen’s University Belfast. The results of the study have provided a useful insight into how the flow conditions at rotor inlet influence the performance of a mixed flow turbine.
Resumo:
We present an analytical solution of a mixed boundary value problem for an unbounded 2D doubly periodic domain which is a model of a composite material with mixed imperfect interface conditions. We find the effective conductivity of the composite material with mixed imperfect interface conditions, and also give numerical analysis of several of their properties such as temperature and flux.
Resumo:
Plantings of mixed native species (termed 'environmental plantings') are increasingly being established for carbon sequestration whilst providing additional environmental benefits such as biodiversity and water quality. In Australia, they are currently one of the most common forms of reforestation. Investment in establishing and maintaining such plantings relies on having a cost-effective modelling approach to providing unbiased estimates of biomass production and carbon sequestration rates. In Australia, the Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is used for both national greenhouse gas accounting and project-scale sequestration activities. Prior to undertaking the work presented here, the FullCAM tree growth curve was not calibrated specifically for environmental plantings and generally under-estimated their biomass. Here we collected and analysed above-ground biomass data from 605 mixed-species environmental plantings, and tested the effects of several planting characteristics on growth rates. Plantings were then categorised based on significant differences in growth rates. Growth of plantings differed between temperate and tropical regions. Tropical plantings were relatively uniform in terms of planting methods and their growth was largely related to stand age, consistent with the un-calibrated growth curve. However, in temperate regions where plantings were more variable, key factors influencing growth were planting width, stand density and species-mix (proportion of individuals that were trees). These categories provided the basis for FullCAM calibration. Although the overall model efficiency was only 39-46%, there was nonetheless no significant bias when the model was applied to the various planting categories. Thus, modelled estimates of biomass accumulation will be reliable on average, but estimates at any particular location will be uncertain, with either under- or over-prediction possible. When compared with the un-calibrated yield curves, predictions using the new calibrations show that early growth is likely to be more rapid and total above-ground biomass may be higher for many plantings at maturity. This study has considerably improved understanding of the patterns of growth in different types of environmental plantings, and in modelling biomass accumulation in young (<25. years old) plantings. However, significant challenges remain to understand longer-term stand dynamics, particularly with temporal changes in stand density and species composition. © 2014.
Resumo:
We describe the evolution of a bistable chemical reaction in a closed two-dimensional chaotic laminar flow, from a localized initial disturbance. When the fluid mixing is sufficiently slow, the disturbance may spread and eventually occupy the entire fluid domain. By contrast, rapid mixing tends to dilute the initial state and so extinguish the disturbance. Such a dichotomy is well known. However, we report here a hitherto apparently unremarked intermediate case, a persistent highly localized disturbance. Such a localized state arises when the Damkoehler number is great enough to sustain a "hot spot," but not so great as to lead to global spread. We show that such a disturbance is located in the neighborhood of an unstable periodic orbit of the flow, and we describe some limited aspects of its behavior using a reduced, lamellar model. Copyright American Physical Society (APS) 2006.
Resumo:
Background: Among other causes the long-term result of hip prostheses in dogs is determined by aseptic loosening. A prevention of prosthesis complications can be achieved by an optimization of the tribological system which finally results in improved implant duration. In this context a computerized model for the calculation of hip joint loadings during different motions would be of benefit. In a first step in the development of such an inverse dynamic multi-body simulation (MBS-) model we here present the setup of a canine hind limb model applicable for the calculation of ground reaction forces. Methods: The anatomical geometries of the MBS-model have been established using computer tomography- (CT-) and magnetic resonance imaging- (MRI-) data. The CT-data were collected from the pelvis, femora, tibiae and pads of a mixed-breed adult dog. Geometric information about 22 muscles of the pelvic extremity of 4 mixed-breed adult dogs was determined using MRI. Kinematic and kinetic data obtained by motion analysis of a clinically healthy dog during a gait cycle (1 m/s) on an instrumented treadmill were used to drive the model in the multi-body simulation. Results and Discussion: As a result the vertical ground reaction forces (z-direction) calculated by the MBS-system show a maximum deviation of 1.75%BW for the left and 4.65%BW for the right hind limb from the treadmill measurements. The calculated peak ground reaction forces in z- and y-direction were found to be comparable to the treadmill measurements, whereas the curve characteristics of the forces in y-direction were not in complete alignment. Conclusion: In conclusion, it could be demonstrated that the developed MBS-model is suitable for simulating ground reaction forces of dogs during walking. In forthcoming investigations the model will be developed further for the calculation of forces and moments acting on the hip joint during different movements, which can be of help in context with the in silico development and testing of hip prostheses.
Resumo:
A quasigeostrophic model is developed to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation, including the vertical velocity, in the upper ocean from high-resolution observations of sea surface height and buoyancy. The formulation for the adiabatic component departs from the classical surface quasigeostrophic framework considered before since it takes into account the stratification within the surface mixed layer that is usually much weaker than that in the ocean interior. To achieve this, the model approximates the ocean with two constant stratification layers: a finite-thickness surface layer (or the mixed layer) and an infinitely deep interior layer. It is shown that the leading-order adiabatic circulation is entirely determined if both the surface streamfunction and buoyancy anomalies are considered. The surface layer further includes a diabatic dynamical contribution. Parameterization of diabatic vertical velocities is based on their restoring impacts of the thermal wind balance that is perturbed by turbulent vertical mixing of momentum and buoyancy. The model skill in reproducing the three-dimensional circulation in the upper ocean from surface data is checked against the output of a high-resolution primitive equation numerical simulation
Resumo:
In this paper, we use an observational dataset built from Argo in situ profiles to describe the main large-scale patterns of intraseasonal mixed layer depth (MLD) variations in the Indian Ocean. An eddy permitting (0.25A degrees) regional ocean model that generally agrees well with those observed estimates is then used to investigate the mechanisms that drive MLD intraseasonal variations and to assess their potential impact on the related SST response. During summer, intraseasonal MLD variations in the Bay of Bengal and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean primarily respond to active/break convective phases of the summer monsoon. In the southern Arabian Sea, summer MLD variations are largely driven by seemingly-independent intraseasonal fluctuations of the Findlater jet intensity. During winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation drives most of the intraseasonal MLD variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Large winter MLD signals in northern Arabian Sea can, on the other hand, be related to advection of continental temperature anomalies from the northern end of the basin. In all the aforementioned regions, peak-to-peak MLD variations usually reach 10 m, but can exceed 20 m for the largest events. Buoyancy flux and wind stirring contribute to intraseasonal MLD fluctuations in roughly equal proportions, except for the Northern Arabian Sea in winter, where buoyancy fluxes dominate. A simple slab ocean analysis finally suggests that the impact of these MLD fluctuations on intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability is probably rather weak, because of the compensating effects of thermal capacity and sunlight penetration: a thin mixed-layer is more efficiently warmed at the surface by heat fluxes but loses more solar flux through its lower base.
Resumo:
Salinity gradient power (SGP) is the energy that can be obtained from the mixing entropy of two solutions with a different salt concentration. River estuary, as a place for mixing salt water and fresh water, has a huge potential of this renewable energy. In this study, this potential in the estuaries of rivers leading to the Persian Gulf and the factors affecting it are analysis and assessment. Since most of the full water rivers are in the Asia, this continent with the potential power of 338GW is a second major source of energy from the salinity gradient power in the world (Wetsus institute, 2009). Persian Gulf, with the proper salinity gradient in its river estuaries, has Particular importance for extraction of this energy. Considering the total river flow into the Persian Gulf, which is approximately equal to 3486 m3/s, the amount of theoretical extractable power from salinity gradient in this region is 5.2GW. Iran, with its numerous rivers along the coast of the Persian Gulf, has a great share of this energy source. For example, with study calculations done on data from three hydrometery stations located on the Arvand River, Khorramshahr Station with releasing 1.91M/ energy which is obtained by combining 1.26m3 river water with 0.74 m3 sea water, is devoted to itself extracting the maximum amount of extractable energy. Considering the average of annual discharge of Arvand River in Khorramshahr hydrometery station, the amount of theoretical extractable power is 955 MW. Another part of parameters that are studied in this research, are the intrusion length of salt water and its flushing time in the estuary that have a significant influence on the salinity gradient power. According to the calculation done in conditions HWS and the average discharge of rivers, the maximum of salinity intrusion length in to the estuary of the river by 41km is related to Arvand River and the lowest with 8km is for Helle River. Also the highest rate of salt water flushing time in the estuary with 9.8 days is related to the Arvand River and the lowest with 3.3 days is for Helle River. Influence of these two parameters on reduces the amount of extractable energy from salinity gradient power as well as can be seen in the estuaries of the rivers studied. For example, at the estuary of the Arvand River in the interval 8.9 days, salinity gradient power decreases 9.2%. But another part of this research focuses on the design of a suitable system for extracting electrical energy from the salinity gradient. So far, five methods have been proposed to convert this energy to electricity that among them, reverse electro-dialysis (RED) method and pressure-retarded osmosis (PRO) method have special importance in practical terms. In theory both techniques generate the same amount of energy from given volumes of sea and river water with specified salinity; in practice the RED technique seems to be more attractive for power generation using sea water and river water. Because it is less necessity of salinity gradient to PRO method. In addition to this, in RED method, it does not need to use turbine to change energy and the electricity generation is started when two solutions are mixed. In this research, the power density and the efficiency of generated energy was assessment by designing a physical method. The physical designed model is an unicellular reverse electro-dialysis battery with nano heterogenic membrane has 20cmx20cm dimension, which produced power density 0.58 W/m2 by using river water (1 g NaCl/lit) and sea water (30 g NaCl/lit) in laboratorial condition. This value was obtained because of nano method used on the membrane of this system and suitable design of the cell which led to increase the yield of the system efficiency 11% more than non nano ones.