Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Strength of stiffened plates with openings

The load-deflection and ultimate strength behaviour of longitudinally stiffened plates with openings was studied using a second-order elastic post-buckling analysis and a rigid-plastic analysis. The ultimate strength was predicted from the intersection point of elastic and rigid-plastic curves and the Perry strut formula. Comparison with experimental results shows that satisfactory prediction of ultimate strength can be obtained by this simple method. Effects of the size of opening, the initial geometrical imperfections and the plate slenderness ratio on the strength of perforated stiffened plates were also studied.

Local plastic mechanisms in thin steel plates under in-plane compression

Thin-walled steel plates subjected to in-plane compression develop two types of local plastic mechanism, namely the roof-shaped mechanism and the so-called flip-disc mechanism, but the intriguing question of why two mechanisms should develop was not answered until recently. It was considered that the location of first yield point shifted from the centre of the plate to the midpoint of the longitudinal edge depending on the b/t ratio, imperfection level, and yield stress of steel, which then decided the type of mechanism. This paper has verified this hypothesis using analysis and laboratory experiments. An elastic analysis using Galerkin's method to solve Marguerre's equations was first used to determine the first yield point, based on which the local plastic mechanism/imperfection tolerance tables have been developed which give the type of mechanism as a function of b/t ratio, imperfection level and yield stress of steel. Laboratory experiments of thin-walled columns verified the imperfection tolerance tables and thus indirectly the hypothesis. Elastic and rigid-plastic curves were them used to predict the effect on the ultimate load due to the change of mechanism. A finite element analysis of selected cases also confirmed the results from simple analyses and experiments.

Flexural capacity of hollow flange beams

The hollow flange beam (HFB) is a unique cold-formed steel section developed in Australia for use as a flexural member. Research has identified that the HFB section's flexural capacity for intermediate span members is limited by lateral distortional buckling, which is characterized by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist, and web distortion. This buckling behaviour is mainly due to the unique geometry of the section, comprising two torsionally stiff triangular flanges connected by a slender web. This paper presents a finite element analytical model suitable for non-linear analysis of HFB flexural members. The model includes all significant effects that may influence the ultimate capacity of such members, including material inelasticity, local buckling, member instability, web distortion, residual stresses, and geometric imperfections. It was found to accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the ultimate capacities of HFB flexural members, and was therefore used in the development of design curves and suitable design procedures.

Tensile properties of Si nanowires with faulted stacking layers

Semiconductor nanowires (NWs) show tremendous applications in micro/nano-electro-mechanical systems. In order to fulfill their promising applications, an understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs becomes increasingly important. Based on the large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, this work investigated the tensile properties of Si NWs with different faulted stacking layers. Different faulted stacking layers were introduced around the centre of the NW by the insertion or removal of certain stacking layers, inducing twins, intrinsic stacking fault, extrinsic stacking fault, and 9R crystal structure. Stress–strain curves obtained from the tensile deformation tests reveal that the presence of faulted stacking layers has induced a considerable decrease to the yield strength while only a minor decrease to Young's modulus. The brittle fracture phenomenon is observed for all tested NWs. In particular, the formation of a monatomic chain is observed for the perfect NW, which exists for a relatively wide strain range. For the defected NW, the monatomic chain appears and lasts shorter. Additionally, all defected NWs show a fracture area near the two ends, in contrast to the perfect NW whose fracture area is adjacent to the middle. This study provides a better understanding of the mechanical properties of Si NWs with the presence of different faulted stacking layers.

Response to chemotherapy is predictive in relation to longer overall survival in an individual patient combined-analysis with pleural mesothelioma

Background: There is currently no early predictive marker of survival for patients receiving chemotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). Tumour response may be predictive for overall survival (OS), though this has not been explored. We have thus undertaken a combined-analysis of OS, from a 42 day landmark, of 526 patients receiving systemic therapy for MPM. We also validate published progression-free survival rates (PFSRs) and a progression-free survival (PFS) prognostic-index model. Methods: Analyses included nine MPM clinical trials incorporating six European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) studies. Analysis of OS from landmark (from day 42 post-treatment) was considered regarding tumour response. PFSR analysis data included six non-EORTC MPM clinical trials. Prognostic index validation was performed on one non-EORTC data-set, with available survival data. Results: Median OS, from landmark, of patients with partial response (PR) was 12·8 months, stable disease (SD), 9·4 months and progressive disease (PD), 3·4 months. Both PR and SD were associated with longer OS from landmark compared with disease progression (both p < 0·0001). PFSRs for platinum-based combination therapies were consistent with published significant clinical activity ranges. Effective separation between PFS and OS curves provided a validation of the EORTC prognostic model, based on histology, stage and performance status. Conclusion: Response to chemotherapy is associated with significantly longer OS from landmark in patients with MPM. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Through-focus performance with multifocal contact lenses : effect of binocularity, pupil diameter and inherent ocular aberrations

Purpose to evaluate the effects of the wearer’s pupil size and spherical aberration on visual performance with centre-near, aspheric multifocal contact lenses (MFCLs). The advantage of binocular over monocular vision was also investigated. Methods Twelve young volunteers, with an average age of 27±5 years, participated in the study. LogMAR Visual Acuity (VA) was measured under cycloplegia for a range of defocus levels (from +3.0 to -3.0D, in 0.5D steps) with no correction and with three aspheric MFCLs (Air Optix Aqua Multifocal, Ciba Vision, Duluth, GA, US) with a centre-near design, providing correction for “Low”, “Med” and “High” near demands. Measurements were performed for all combinations of the following conditions: i) artificial pupils of 6mm and 3mm diameter, ii) binocular and monocular (dominant eye) vision. Depth-of-focus (DOF) was calculated from the VA vs. defocus curves. Ocular aberrations under cycloplegia were measured using iTrace. Results VA at -3.0D defocus (simulating near performance) was statistically higher for the 3mm than for the 6mm pupil (p=0.006), and for binocular rather than for monocular vision (p<0.001). Similarly, DOF was better for the 3mm pupil (p=0.002) and for binocular viewing conditions (p<0.001, ANOVA). Both VA at –3.0D defocus and DOF increased as the “addition” of the MFCL correction increased. Finally, with the centre-near MFCLs a linear correlation was found between VA at –3.0D defocus and the wearer’s ocular spherical aberration (R2=0.20 p<0.001 for 6mm data), with the eyes exhibiting the higher positive spherical aberration experiencing lower VAs. By contrast, no correlation was found between VA and spherical aberration at 0.00D defocus (distance vision). Conclusions Both near VA and depth-of-focus improve with these MFCLs, with the effects being more pronounced for small pupils and binocular than for monocular vision. Coupling of the wearer’s ocular spherical aberration with the aberration profiles provided by MFCLs affects their functionality.

Prognostic factors for malignant mesothelioma in 142 patients : validation of CALGB and EORTC prognostic scoring systems

Background The incidence of malignant mesothelioma is increasing. There is the perception that survival is worse in the UK than in other countries. However, it is important to compare survival in different series based on accurate prognostic data. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Cancer and Leukaemia Group B (CALGB) have recently published prognostic scoring systems. We have assessed the prognostic variables, validated the EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups, and evaluated survival in a series of 142 patients. Methods Case notes of 142 consecutive patients presenting in Leicester since 1988 were reviewed. Univariate analysis of prognostic variables was performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Statistically significant variables were analysed further in a forward, stepwise multivariate model. EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups were derived, Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted, and survival rates were calculated from life tables. Results Significant poor prognostic factors in univariate analysis included male sex, older age, weight loss, chest pain, poor performance status, low haemoglobin, leukocytosis, thrombocytosis, and non-epithelial cell type (p<0.05). The prognostic significance of cell type, haemoglobin, white cell count, performance status, and sex were retained in the multivariate model. Overall median survival was 5.9 (range 0-34.3) months. One and two year survival rates were 21.3% (95% CI 13.9 to 28.7) and 3.5% (0 to 8.5), respectively. Median, one, and two year survival data within prognostic groups in Leicester were equivalent to the EORTC and CALGB series. Survival curves were successfully stratified by the prognostic groups. Conclusions This study validates the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems which should be used both in the assessment of survival data of series in different countries and in the stratification of patients into randomised clinical studies.

Validation of the interRAI Cognitive Performance Scale against independent clinical diagnosis and the Mini-Mental State Examination in older hospitalized patients

Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the interRAI Acute Care (AC) Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS2) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), against independent clinical diagnosis for detecting dementia in older hospitalized patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The study was part of a prospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥70 years admitted to four acute hospitals in Queensland, Australia, between 2008 and 2010. Recruitment was consecutive and patients expected to remain in hospital for ≥48 hours were eligible to participate. Data for 462 patients were available for this study. Measurements Trained research nurses completed comprehensive geriatric assessments and administered the interRAI AC and MMSE to patients. Two physicians independently reviewed patients’ medical records and assessments to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Indicators of diagnostic accuracy included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and areas under receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curves. Results 85 patients (18.4%) were considered to have dementia according to independent clinical diagnosis. The sensitivity of the CPS2 [0.68 (95%CI: 0.58–0.77)] was not statistically different to the MMSE [0.75 (0.64–0.83)] in predicting physician diagnosed dementia. The AUCs for the 2 instruments were also not statistically different: CPS2 AUC = 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78–0.89) and MMSE AUC = 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.91), while the CPS2 demonstrated higher specificity [0.92 95%CI: 0.89–0.95)] than the MMSE [0.82 (0.77–0.85)]. Agreement between the CPS2 and clinical diagnosis was substantial (87.4%; κ=0.61). Conclusion The CPS2 appears to be a reliable screening tool for assessing cognitive impairment in acutely unwell older hospitalized patients. These findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of the interRAI AC, within which the CPS2 is embedded. The interRAI AC offers the advantage of being able to accurately screen for both dementia and delirium without the need to use additional assessments, thus increasing assessment efficiency.

Prognostic value of angiogenesis in operable non-small cell lung cancer

Tumour angiogenesis is an important factor for tumour growth and metastasis. Although some recent reports suggest that microvessel counts in non-small cell lung cancer are related to a poor disease outcome, the results were not conclusive and were not compared with other molecular prognostic markers. In the present study, the vascular grade was assessed in 107 (T1,2-N0,1) operable non-small cell lung carcinomas, using the JC70 monoclonal antibody to CD31. Three vascular grades were defined with appraisal by eye and by Chalkley counting: high (Chalkley score 7-12), medium (5-6), and low (2-4). There was a significant correlation between eye appraisal and Chalkley counting (P < 0.0001). Vascular grade was not related to histology, grade, proliferation index (Ki67), or EGFR or p53 expression. Tumours from younger patients had a higher grade of angiogenesis (P = 0.05). Apart from the vascular grade, none of the other factors examined was statistically related to lymph node metastasis (P < 0.0001). A univariate analysis of survival showed that vascular grade was the most significant prognostic factor (P = 0.0004), followed by N-stage (P = 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, N-stage and vascular grade were not found to be independent prognostic factors, since they were strongly related to each other. Excluding N-stage, vascular grade was the only independent prognostic factor (P = 0.007). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed a statistically significant worse prognosis for patients with high vascular grade, but no difference was observed between low and medium vascular grade. These data suggest that angiogenesis in operable non-small cell lung cancer is a major prognostic factor for survival and, among the parameters tested, is the only factor related to cancer cell migration to lymph nodes. The integration of vascular grading in clinical trials on adjuvant chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy could substantially contribute in defining groups of operable patients who might benefit from cytotoxic treatment.

Drying kinetics, quality changes and shrinkage of two grape varieties of Italy

Two varieties of grapes, white grape and red grape grown in the Campania region of Italy were selected for the study of drying characteristics, moisture diffusion, quality changes (colour) and shrinkage behaviour. Comparisons were made with treated and untreated grapes under constant drying condition of 50o C in a conventional drying system. This temperature was selected to represent farm drying conditions. Grapes were purchased from a local market from the same supplier to maintain the same size of grapes and same properties. An abrasive physical treatment was used as pretreatment. The drying curves were constructed and drying kinetics was calculated using several commonly available models. It was found that treated samples shows better drying characteristics than untreated samples. The objective of this study is to obtain drying kinetics which can be used to optimize the drying operations in grape drying.

A variable diffusivity model for the drying of spherical food particulates

An investigation of the drying of spherical food particles was performed, using peas as the model material. In the development of a mathematical model for drying curves, moisture diffusion was modelled using Fick’s second law for mass transfer. The resulting partial differential equation was solved using a forward-time central-space finite difference approximation, with the assumption of variable effective diffusivity. In order to test the model, experimental data was collected for the drying of green peas in a fluidised bed at three drying temperatures. Through fitting three equation types for effective diffusivity to the data, it was found that a linear equation form, in which diffusivity increased with decreasing moisture content, was most appropriate. The final model accurately described the drying curves of the three experimental temperatures, with an R2 value greater than 98.6% for all temperatures.

Long-term outcomes following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: We present and analyze long-term outcomes following multimodal therapy for esophageal cancer, in particular the relative impact of histomorphologic tumor regression and nodal status. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 243 patients [(adenocarcinoma (n = 170) and squamous cell carcinoma (n = 73)] treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in the period 1990 to 2004 were followed prospectively with a median follow-up of 60 months. Pathologic stage and tumor regression grade (TRG) were documented, the site of first failure was recorded, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted. RESULTS: Thirty patients (12%) did not undergo surgery due to disease progression or deteriorated performance status. Forty-one patients (19%) had a complete pathologic response (pCR), and there were 31(15%) stage I, 69 (32%) stage II, and 72 (34%) stage III cases. The overall median survival was 18 months, and the 5-year survival was 27%. The 5-year survival of patients achieving a pCR was 50% compared with 37% in non-pCR patients who were node-negative (P = 0.86). Histomorphologic tumor regression was not associated with pre-CRT cTN stage but was significantly (P < 0.05) associated with ypN stage. By multivariate analysis, ypN status (P = 0.002) was more predictive of overall survival than TRG (P = 0.06) or ypT stage (P = 0.39). CONCLUSION: Achieving a node-negative status is the major determinant of outcome following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Histomorphologic tumor regression is less predictive of outcome than pathologic nodal status (ypN), and the need to include a primary site regression score in a new staging classification is unclear. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Porohyperelastic analysis of single osteocyte using AFM and inverse FEA

Osteocytes are the mature cells and perform as mechanosensors within the bone. The mechanical property of osteocytes plays an important role to fulfill these functions. However, little researches have been done to investigate the mechanical deformation properties of single osteocytes. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) is a state-of-art experimental facility for high resolution imaging of tissues, cells and any surfaces as well as for probing mechanical properties of the samples both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this paper, the experimental study based on AFM is firstly used to obtain forceindentation curves of single round osteocytes. The porohyperelastic (PHE) model of a single osteocyte is then developed by using the inverse finite element analysis (FEA) to identify and extract mechanical properties from the experiment results. It has been found that the PHE model is a good candidature for biomechanics studies of osteocytes.

Porohyperelastic analysis of single chondrocyte using AFM and inverse FEA

The aim of this paper is to determine the creep and relaxation responses of single chondrocytes in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of single chondrocytes at the strain-rate of 7.05 s-1. This result was then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using porohyperelastic (PHE) idealization of the cells to determine their mechanical properties. The PHE model results agreed well with AFM experimental data. This PHE model was then utilized to study chondrocyte’s creep and relaxation behaviors. The results revealed that the effect of fluid was predominant for cell’s mechanical behaviors and that the PHE is a good model for biomechanics studies of chondrocytes.