Services PTAs: Lessons from Practice

Presentation given by Pierre Sauvé at the international conference on the political economy of liberalising trade in services at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem

Explaining the Persistence of State-ownership in China

In the recent decade China witnessed an upsurge of privatization of small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast to the consequent sharp reduction in the number of firms, however, the estimated share of broadly-defined SOEs that includes limited liabilities companies controlled by the State has shown virtually no sign of decline. We explain the backgrounds of this seemingly paradoxical persistence of state-ownership by looking into two distinctive types of large SOEs: traditional SOEs that remain dominant in oligopolistic industries and manager-controlled SOEs surviving in competitive industries. The two types exemplify several factors constraining further progress of SOE reform such as, financing the costs of restructuring, redefining the role of the State as the single dominant shareholder, and balancing the interests of the State and managers as entrepreneurs. Sorting these issues out will take time, which means that instabilities associated with state corporate ownership will remain in place in the foreseeable future in China.

An Asian Triangle of Growth and Cluster-to-Cluster Linkages

It is expected that an Asian triangle of growth will be formed in the coming few decades. China, India and ASEAN surround the Asian triangle, which is home to many industrial clusters. Multinational corporations will link these clusters together. Regional integration will help them in this task by lowering the barriers of national borders. This paper explains the necessity of regional integration for cluster-to-cluster linkages in the Asian triangle of growth.

「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題の力学－グローバル・イシュー化と議論の欠落－

ダイヤモンド原石の取引とアフリカの紛争をめぐる「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題は、近年国際社会が熱心に討議するグローバル・イシューとなった。この問題は2000年になって急速に顕在化し、年末には国連総会において全会一致で加盟国に取り組みを求める決議が採択された。国連の報告書やNGOの運動によって国際世論が盛り上がり、シエラレオネ問題の解決を進めたいイギリス政府、あるいは消費者運動を恐れる業界や生産国が取り組みに加わったことなどがその理由である。しかし、現在の「紛争ダイヤモンド」をめぐる議論では、ダイヤモンドとアフリカの紛争をめぐる問題が部分的にしか扱われていない。そこではアンゴラとシエラレオネにおける反政府勢力の活動を抑えることに主眼が置かれているが、コンゴのように状況が複雑な地域に対する取り組みは遅れている。さらに、ダイヤモンドを武器購入や民間軍事会社への支払いに充当するアフリカ各国政府の行動については、深刻な問題を内包するにもかかわらず、ほとんど議論されていない。「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題が、脆弱な国家における公的な資源の管理・開発という論点と繋がっていることを忘れるべきではない。

Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction under Mubarak's Program

This paper describes and analyzes the major features of economic development and poverty reduction in Egypt during its transition to a market Economy. It focuses on the changes in the situation of poverty and economic policies pursued as remedies by the government of Egypt and the ruling NDP. Sustainable development and poverty reduction is the core of the President Mubarak’s election campaign for his fifth term for the presidency. We attempt to explain the obstacles encountered by the Egyptian economy in terms of adjustments and general economic arguments on poverty. Finally, we refer to the necessity for enhanced accountability in the society to accomplish the goal.

Social movements and the crisis of neoliberalism in Malaysia and Thailand

Of the Southeast Asian countries most badly affected by the 1997 financial crisis, Malaysia and Thailand remain the most unsettled by its political fallout. Their present political situations are not akin to 'politics as usual'. Instead, they capture the unpredicted outcomes of post-crisis struggles to reorganize structures of economic and political power. Comparing the situations in Malaysia and Thailand, this paper focuses on their differing state and civil society engagements with neoliberalism. It is suggested that the post-crisis contestations, sometimes tied to pre-crisis conflicts in political economy, left something of a stalemate: neither neoliberalism nor the social movements satisfactorily fulfilled their agendas in either country.

Growth and public finance in Bihar

This paper explores the causal links between the role of public finance and Bihar's growth and development in the last decade; and argues that these links are tenuous. Bihar's growth acceleration precedes the ‘policy reforms' in public finance based on the ‘good governance' agenda initiated since 2005-06. However, the constraints on sustaining efforts to close Bihar's development gap with the rest of India stems from the nature of the growth process in its regional, sectoral and social dimensions and the contradictory means and ends of the ‘policy reforms' in public finance. Together, this has not only prevented the economic growth to add to public coiffeurs of the state but also occluded the role of tax institutions.

Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

State-business relations in the smaller gulf monarchies -- the role of business actors in the decision-making process

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).

La centralidad y la representación de la cotidianidad en la ciudad globalizada. Madrid y la evolución de la Almendra Central de 1998 a 2008

En un escenario de cambio en el ciclo sistémico de acumulación, la centralidad urbana adquiere un papel de espacio para la acumulación de capital económico y simbólico en torno al discurso de la excelencia y el prestigio derivado de la globalización. La producción de un espacio diferenciado y competitivo tiende a normalizar las formas de vida, contribuyendo a la aspiración coercitiva neoliberal. Tras dos décadas de máxima expansión del sistema de acumulación en Madrid, las inversiones realizadas en la Almendra Central han transformado el espacio de centralidad, facilitando la producción de un espacio excluyente en busca de ventajas para la atracción de capital. Surge así una competencia entre espacios para extender el sistema de acumulación, lo que lleva a referenciar la cotidianidad en el consumo, convertido en instrumento de referencia de la posición social. El análisis desde tres enfoques —la economía política, la forma urbana y la ideología— nos sugiere que la Almendra Central de Madrid, como construcción física y social, se ha convertido en la representación no solo del mundo de la mercancía, sino también del estatus del individuo en la globalización. ABSTRACT In the change of the systemic cycle of accumulation, urban centrality acquires a role as accumulation space for the economic and symbolic capital, around an excellence and prestige discourse, characteristic of globalisation. The production of one difference and competitive space suggests the normalization of ways of life. This contributes to the neoliberal aspiration of coercion. Before two decades of maximum expansion of accumulation cycle in Madrid, the investment in the “Almendra Central” has transform the centrality space, producing a distinguished space, searching for advantages in the attraction of capital. So it is necessary a competition between spaces inside the city to extend the accumulation system, and then, the everyday life is referenced in consumption as a social position reference. From three approaches —political economy, urban form and ideology— our analysis suggests that the “Almendra Central” in Madrid is now, not only the representation of world commodity, but also the social status in globalisation.

“O CRISTO AFOGADO: UMA NÃO-CRISTOLOGIA” RELIGIÃO, LITERATURA E PÓS-COLONIALISMO

O objetivo dessa tese é aprofundar, a partir do discurso pós-colonial, uma crise na perspectiva teológica da libertação. Esta promoveu, na década de 1970, uma reviravolta nos estudos teológicos no terceiro mundo. Para tanto, leremos um conto de Gabriel García Márquez chamado “El ahogado más hermosodel mundo” (1968) analizando e avaliando as estratégias políticas e culturais ali inscritas. Para levar a frente tal avaliação é preciso ampliar o escopo de uma visão que divide o mundo em secular/religioso, ou em ideias/práticas religiosas e não religiosas, para dar passo a uma visão unificada que compreende a mundanalidade, tanto do que é catalogado como ‘religioso’ quanto do que se pretende ‘não religioso’. A teologia/ciências da religião, como discurso científico sobre a economia das trocas que lidam com visões, compreensões e práticas de mundo marcadas pelo reconhecimento do mistério que lhes é inerente, possuem um papel fundamental na compreensão, explicitação, articulação e disponibilização de tais forças culturais. A percepção de existirem elementos no conto que se relacionam com os símbolos sobre Jesus/Cristo nos ofereceu um vetor de análise; entretanto, não nos deixamos limitar pelos grilhões disciplinares que essa simbologia implica. Ao mesmo tempo, esse vínculo, compreendido desde a relação imperial/colonial inerente aos discursos e imagens sobre Jesus-Cristo, embora sem centralizar a análise, não poderia ficar intocado. Partimos para a construção de uma estrutura teórica que explicitasse os valores, gestos, e horizontes mundanos do conto, cristológicos e não-cristológicos, contribuindo assim para uma desestabilização dos quadros tradicionais a partir dos quais se concebem a teologia e as ciências da religião, a obra de García Márquez como literatura, e a geografia imperial/colonial que postula o realismo ficcional de territórios como “América Latina”. Abrimos, assim, um espaço de significação que lê o conto como uma “não-cristologia”, deslocando o aprisionamento disciplinar e classificatório dos elementos envolvidos na análise. O discurso crítico de Edward Said, Homi Bhabha e GayatriSpivak soma-se à prática teórica de teólogas críticas feministas da Ásia, da África e da América Latina para formular o cenário político emancipatório que denominaremos teologia crítica secular.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.