Interrelatedness of grazing livestock with vegetation parameters and farmers’ livelihoods in the Mahafaly region, southwestern Madagascar

The study aims to get deeper insight into the highly extensive system of animal husbandry in the Mahafaly region of southwestern Madagascar. It tries to understand the major drivers for pastoral dynamics, land and resource use along a gradient in altitude and vegetation to consider the area’s high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The study also analyzes the reproductive performance of local livestock as well as the owners’ culling strategies to determine herd dynamics, opportunities for economic growth, and future potential for rural development. Across seasons, plateau herds from both livestock species covered longer distances (cattle 13.6±3.02 km, goats 12.3±3.48 km) and were found further away from the settlements (cattle 3.1±0.96 km, goats 2.8±0.98 km) than those from the coastal plain (walking_dist: cattle 9.5±3.25 km, goats 9.2±2.57 km; max_dist: cattle 2.6±1.28 km, goats 1.8±0.61 km). Transhumant cattle were detected more vulnerable through limited access to pasture land and water resources compared to local herds. Seasonal water shortage has been confirmed as a key constraint on the plateau while livestock keeping along the coast is more limited by dry season forage availability. However, recent security issues and land use conflicts with local crop farmers are gaining importance and force livestock owners to adapt their traditional grazing management, resulting in spatio-temporal variation of livestock numbers and in the impending risk of local overgrazing and degradation of rangelands. Among the 133 plant species consumed by livestock, 13 were determined of major importance for the animals’ nutrition. The nutritive value and digestibility of the natural forage, as well as its abundance in the coastal zone, substantially decreased over the course of the dry season and emphasized the importance of supplementary forage plants, in particular Euphorbia stenoclada. At the same time, an unsustainable utilization and overexploitation of its wild stocks may raise the pressure on the vegetation and pasture resources within the nearby Tsimanampetsotsa National Park. Age at first parturition was 40.5±0.59 months for cattle and 21.3±0.63 months for goats. Both species showed long parturition intervals (cattle 24.2±0.48 months, goats 12.4±0.30 months), mostly due to the maintenance of poorly performing breeding females within the herds. Reported offspring mortality, however, was low with 2.5% of cattle and 18.8% of goats dying before reaching maturity. The analysis of economic information revealed higher than expected market dynamics, especially for zebus, resulting in annual contribution margins of 33 € per cattle unit and 11 € per goat unit. The application of the PRY Herd Life model to simulate herd development for present management and two alternate scenarios confirmed the economic profitability of the current livestock system and showed potential for further productive and economic development. However, this might be clearly limited by the region’s restricted carrying capacity. Summarizing, this study illustrates the highly extensive and resources-driven character of the livestock system in the Mahafaly region, with herd mobility being a central element to cope with seasonal shortages in forage and water. But additional key drivers and external factors are gaining importance and increasingly affect migration decisions and grazing management. This leads to an increased risk of local overgrazing and overexploitation of natural pasture resources and intensifies the tension between pastoral and conservation interests. At the same time, it hampers the region’s agronomic development, which has not yet been fully exploited. The situation therefore demonstrates the need for practical improvement suggestions and implication measures, such as the systematic forestation of supplemental forage plant species in the coastal zone or a stronger integration of animal husbandry and crop production, to sustain the traditional livestock system without compromising peoples’ livelihoods while at the same time minimizing the pastoral impact on the area’s unique nature and environment.

Learning-Based Approach to Estimation of Morphable Model Parameters

We describe the key role played by partial evaluation in the Supercomputing Toolkit, a parallel computing system for scientific applications that effectively exploits the vast amount of parallelism exposed by partial evaluation. The Supercomputing Toolkit parallel processor and its associated partial evaluation-based compiler have been used extensively by scientists at MIT, and have made possible recent results in astrophysics showing that the motion of the planets in our solar system is chaotically unstable.

Model Order Reduction for Determining Bubble Parameters to Attain a Desired Fluid Surface Shape

In this paper, a new methodology for predicting fluid free surface shape using Model Order Reduction (MOR) is presented. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition combined with a linear interpolation procedure for its coefficient is applied to a problem involving bubble dynamics near to a free surface. A model is developed to accurately and efficiently capture the variation of the free surface shape with different bubble parameters. In addition, a systematic approach is developed within the MOR framework to find the best initial locations and pressures for a set of bubbles beneath the quiescent free surface such that the resultant free surface attained is close to a desired shape. Predictions of the free surface in two-dimensions and three-dimensions are presented.

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of being compositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond the capabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and complete absence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of the analyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimum concentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of the element. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generate unbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that different detection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributions starting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects). The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in the simplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow from the large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method is used to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributional parameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The case study illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are made using the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes the problems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, it is necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation

La Comunidad geospacial y el acceso a datos oceanográficos

Nowadays, Oceanographic and Geospatial communities are closely related worlds. The problem is that they follow parallel paths in data storage, distributions, modelling and data analyzing. This situation produces different data model implementations for the same features. While Geospatial information systems have 2 or 3 dimensions, the Oceanographic models uses multidimensional parameters like temperature, salinity, streams, ocean colour... This implies significant differences between data models of both communities, and leads to difficulties in dataset analysis for both sciences. These troubles affect directly to the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies ( IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)). Researchers from this Institute perform intensive processing with data from oceanographic facilities like CTDs, moorings, gliders… and geospatial data collected related to the integrated management of coastal zones. In this paper, we present an approach solution based on THREDDS (Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services). THREDDS allows data access through the standard geospatial data protocol Web Coverage Service, inside the European project (European Coastal Sea Operational Observing and Forecasting system). The goal of ECOOP is to consolidate, integrate and further develop existing European coastal and regional seas operational observing and forecasting systems into an integrated pan- European system targeted at detecting environmental and climate changes

ROC parameters in item and context recognition. 'Par??metros ROC en el reconocimiento de items y contextos'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n. Resumen tambi??n en ingl??s

Operational Cost Reduction in WDM Networks using Lighttours

Wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) networks have been adopted as a near-future solution for the broadband Internet. In previous work we proposed a new architecture, named enhanced grooming (G+), that extends the capabilities of traditional optical routes (lightpaths). In this paper, we compare the operational expenditures incurred by routing a set of demands using lightpaths with that of lighttours. The comparison is done by solving an integer linear programming (ILP) problem based on a path formulation. Results show that, under the assumption of single-hop routing, almost 15% of the operational cost can be reduced with our architecture. In multi-hop routing the operation cost is reduced in 7.1% and at the same time the ratio of operational cost to number of optical-electro-optical conversions is reduced for our architecture. This means that ISPs could provide the same satisfaction in terms of delay to the end-user with a lower investment in the network architecture

Prediction of glucose excursions under uncertain parameters and food intake in intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes mellitus

Considering the difficulty in the insulin dosage selection and the problem of hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes in type 1 diabetes, dosage-aid systems appear as tremendously helpful for these patients. A model-based approach to this problem must unavoidably consider uncertainty sources such as the large intra-patient variability and food intake. This work addresses the prediction of glycaemia for a given insulin therapy face to parametric and input uncertainty, by means of modal interval analysis. As result, a band containing all possible glucose excursions suffered by the patient for the given uncertainty is obtained. From it, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemia episodes can be calculated

Operational Research

Exam questions, exercises and solutions for a second year operational research course.

Bioinformatics & Operational Research

Challenges for Web Science - applications in Bio & OR

Perdurabilidad empresarial: concepto y significados

Los grandes aportes generados por las antiguas civilizaciones y los filósofos más destacados a lo largo del tiempo, permiten entender la procedencia de algunos términos de los que hoy en día se hace uso. Estas contribuciones comienzan a través de la concepción del término tiempo, desde la antigüedad hasta los tiempos modernos, las cuales conllevan a entender que el tiempo es aquel que define la durabilidad de las cosas. De acuerdo a esto, se propone un acercamiento sobre el origen del término perdurabilidad, el cual será la base de la presente investigación. Entender la procedencia del término y el uso que se le da a sí mismo, facilita la aplicación el ámbito empresarial; el cual, a partir de diferentes posturas de autores nacionales e internacionales y basados en los parámetros que ha establecido la Universidad del Rosario, se establece un marco teórico de apoyo para futuras investigaciones dedicadas a la perdurabilidad empresarial. Asimismo, se establecen o se plasman algunos principios o factores de éxito que ayudan a que una empresa logre traspasar fronteras en tiempo y en rentabilidad; es decir que no solo permanezca muchos años en el mercado, sino que además se mantenga en constante crecimiento y rentabilidad.

Diferencia venoarterial de Pco2 como predictor de disfunción miocárdica en niños con sepsis severa y choque séptico.

Introducción: La sepsis es una de las principales causas de morbilidad y mortalidad en la población pediátrica a nivel mundial, siendo la disminución del gasto cardiaco uno de los principales factores asociados a mortalidad. Se ha planteado la diferencia venoarterial de pCO2 como predictor de la función miocárdica en pacientes con sepsis, sin embargo hasta el momento no hay estudios en la población pediátrica que lo evalúen. Objetivo: Determinar la capacidad predictora y las características operativas de la diferencia venoarterial de pCO2, como predictor de disfunción miocárdica en pacientes pediátricos con sepsis severa y choque séptico. Métodos: Para alcanzar los objetivos del estudio, se llevo a cabo un estudio prospectivo de pruebas diagnósticas. Se realizó ecocardiograma y diferencia venoarterial de pCO2 en cada paciente, posteriormente se calculó las características operativas de la diferencia venoarterial de pCO2 para determinar su utilidad. Resultados: Se incluyeron 71 pacientes. La mediana de la diferencia venoarterial de pCO2 no fue significativamente mayor en los pacientes que tuvieron disfunción cardiaca en el ecocardiograma en comparación con los que no tuvieron disfunción. Se encontró una relación estadísticamente significativa de valores de 1,5 a 2,1 mmHg, como predictor negativo de disfunción miocárdica con una sensibilidad de 100% y una especificidad de 88%. Conclusiones: La diferencia venoarterial de pCO2 requiere de estudios mas extensos para determinar la probabilidad como predictor de disfunción miocárdica en pacientes pediátricos con sepsis severa y choque séptico, incluso cuando otros biomarcadores se encuentran dentro de límites normales.

Comparación de parámetros de atención en una escala de triage de 5 niveles con los parámetros estándar

Introducción: La escala de severidad en emergencias es una herramienta que ofrece seguridad a pacientes en servicios de urgencias. Este trabajo evalúa la aplicación de la escala ESI 4.0 en términos de oportunidad de atención y consumo de recursos en la Fundación Santa Fé de Bogotá, para comparar los resultados con parámetros estándar. Metodología Estudio observacional analítico de corte transversal. Se incluyeron 385 pacientes aleatorizados por nivel de atención. Se tomaron datos demográficos y variables como consumo de recursos y destino del paciente para su descripción y análisis. Resultados: El promedio de edad fue 44.9 años IC95%42.9–46.9, el 54.5% fueron mujeres. Se encontró un tiempo promedio de espera para nivel 1 de 1.39 min, para el nivel 2 de 22.9 min 2, para el nivel 3 de 41.9 min, para el nivel 4 de 56.9 min y para el nivel 5 de 52.1 min. El tiempo promedio de estancia en urgencias fue 5.9 horas y el 78.9% consumió recursos. Al comparar los tiempos con estándares mundiales en el nivel 1, 2 y 3 son significativamente mayores (P<0,05), en el nivel 4 es similar (p0,51) y en el nivel 5 es significativamente menor (p=0,00) Discusión: La escala ESI 4.0 es una herramienta segura, con un comportamiento similar en oportunidad de atención y consumo de recursos con respecto a los estándares de cuidado en los servicios de urgencias.

Analysing Strategy Use in Terms of the Four Parameters of Strategic Competence : Contributions from a Numerosity Judgement Task.'Analizando el uso de estrategias en términos de cuatro parámetros de la competencia estratégica: contribuciones de una tarea de juicio de cantidad'.

Resumen tomado parcialmente de la revista.- El artículo forma parte de un monográfico de la revista dedicado a Psicología de las Matemáticas

The Role of Context-Related Parameters in Adults' Mental Computational Acts. 'El papel de los parámetros relacionados con el contexto en actos de cálculo mental en adultos'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación