Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Sustainable miracles : protection and competition in the Brazilian oil industry

It is often suggested that competition improves productivity, however, the underlying support for this idea is surprisingly thin. This paper presents a case study examining the e ects of a change in the competitive environment on productivity at the Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company. Petrobras had a legal monopoly on production, re ning, transportation and importation of oil in Brazil until it was removed in 1995. Even though Petrobras continues to have a de facto monopoly, the end of legal monopoly labor productivity growth rate more than doubled. A growth accounting of the industry shows that between 1977 and 1993 output growth rate (and productivity growth rate) is explained by the accumulation of capital, while Total Factor Productivity (TFP) decreased. Between 1994 and 2000 labor productivity growth rate is completely explained by the growth rate of TFP. The results suggest that the threat of competition alone is su cient to improve productivity. They also provide evidence that restricting competition help cause Brazil's depression of the 1980s.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with mass spectrometry as a powerful analytical tool for profiling the terpenoid metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety

Hop(HumuluslupulusL.,Cannabaceaefamily)isprizedforitsessentialoilcontents,usedin beer production and, more recently, in biological and pharmacological applications. In this work,a methodinvolvingheadspace solid-phase microextractionand gas chromatography– mass spectrometry was developed and optimized to establish the terpenoid (monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes) metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety as a mean to explore this matrix as a powerful biological source for newer, more selective, biodegradable and naturally produced antimicrobial and antioxidant compounds. Different parameters affecting terpenoid metabolites extraction by headspace solid-phase microextraction were considered and optimized: type of fiber coatings, extraction temperature, extraction time, ionic strength, and sample agitation. In the optimized method, analytes were extracted for 30 min at 40 C in the sample headspace with a 50/30 m divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane coating fiber. The methodology allowed the identification of a total of 27 terpenoid metabolites, representing 92.5% of the total Saaz hop-essential oil volatile terpenoid composition. The headspace composition was dominated by monoterpenes (56.1%, 13 compounds), sesquiterpenes (34.9%, 10), oxygenated monoterpenes (1.41%, 3), and hemiterpenes (0.04%, 1) some of which can probably contribute to the hop of Saaz variety aroma. Mass spectrometry analysis revealed that the main metabolites are the monoterpene -myrcene (53.0±1.1% of the total volatile fraction), and the cyclic sesquiterpenes, -humulene (16.6 ± 0.8%), and -caryophyllene (14.7 ± 0.4%), which together represent about 80% of the total volatile fraction from the hop-essential oil. Thesefindingssuggestthatthismatrixcanbeexploredasapowerfulbiosourceofterpenoid metabolites.

Desenvolvimento de tubulação em compósito polimérico revestida externamente com poliuretano de alta densidade

Pipelines for the transport of crude oil from the production wells to the collecting stations are named production lines . These pipes are subjected to chemical and electrochemical corrosion according to the environment and the type of petroleum transported. Some of these lines, depending upon the composition of the fluid produced, may leak within less than one year of operation due to internal corrosion. This work aims at the development of composite pipes with an external protecting layer of high density polyurethane for use in production lines of onshore oil wells, meeting operational requirements. The pipes were manufactured using glass fibers, epoxy resin, polyester resin, quartz sand and high density polyurethane. The pipes were produced by filament winding with the deposition of high density polyurethane on the external surface and threaded ends (API 15 HR/PM-VII). Three types of pipes were manufactured: glass/epoxy, glass/epoxy with an external polyurethane layer and glass/epoxy with an intermediate layer of glass fiber, polyester, sand and with an external polyurethane layer. The three samples were characterized by Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM) and for the determination of constituent content. In addition, the following tests were conducted: hydrostatic test, instant rupture, shorttime failure pressure, Gardner impact, transverse stiffness and axial tension. Field tests were conducted in Mossoró RN (BRAZIL), where 1,677 meters of piping were used. The tests results of the three types of pipes were compared in two events: after two months from manufacturing of the samples and after nine months of field application. The results indicate that the glass/epoxy pipes with an intermediate layer of fiber glass composite, polyester e sand and with an external layer of high density polyurethane showed superior properties as compared to the other two and met the requirements of pressure class, axial tensile strength, transverse stiffness, impact and environmental conditions, for onshore applications as production lines

Cinemática de partículas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo: avaliação durante paradas operacionais

The new oil reservoirs discoveries in onshore and ultra deep water offshore fields and complex trajectories require the optimization of procedures to reduce the stops operation during the well drilling, especially because the platforms and equipment high cost, and risks which are inherent to the operation. Among the most important aspects stands out the drilling fluids project and their behavior against different situations that may occur during the process. By means of sedimentation experiments, a correlation has been validated to determe the sedimentation particles velocity in variable viscosity fluids over time, applying the correction due to effective viscosity that is a shear rate and time function. The viscosity evolution over time was obtained by carrying out rheologic tests using a fixed shear rate, small enough to not interfere in the fluid gelling process. With the sedimentation particles velocity and the fluid viscosity over time equations an iterative procedure was proposed to determine the particles displacement over time. These equations were implemented in a case study to simulate the cuttings sedimentation generated in the oil well drilling during stops operation, especially in the connections and tripping, allowing the drilling fluid project in order to maintain the cuttings in suspension, avoiding risks, such as stuck pipe and in more drastic conditions, the loss of the well

Implementação de um Módulo de Supervisão para um Sistema de Detecção de Vazamentos em Dutos de Petróleo

The transport of fluids through pipes is used in the oil industry, being the pipelines an important link in the logistics flow of fluids. However, the pipelines suffer deterioration in their walls caused by several factors which may cause loss of fluids to the environment, justifying the investment in techniques and methods of leak detection to minimize fluid loss and environmental damage. This work presents the development of a supervisory module in order to inform to the operator the leakage in the pipeline monitored in the shortest time possible, in order that the operator log procedure that entails the end of the leak. This module is a component of a system designed to detect leaks in oil pipelines using sonic technology, wavelets and neural networks. The plant used in the development and testing of the module presented here was the system of tanks of LAMP, and its LAN, as monitoring network. The proposal consists of, basically, two stages. Initially, assess the performance of the communication infrastructure of the supervisory module. Later, simulate leaks so that the DSP sends information to the supervisory performs the calculation of the location of leaks and indicate to which sensor the leak is closer, and using the system of tanks of LAMP, capture the pressure in the pipeline monitored by piezoresistive sensors, this information being processed by the DSP and sent to the supervisory to be presented to the user in real time

Volatile Oil of Psidium cattleianum Sabine from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of Urucu oil (Brazilian Amazon) on the biomass of the aquatic macrophyte Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae)

Os rios e lagos de várzea da província petrolífera de Urucu, na Amazônia Central, são amplamente colonizados por macrófitas aquáticas, que podem ser afetadas por acidentes durante a exploração e o transporte de petróleo. Entre as macrófitas, a espécie flutuante Eichhornia crassipes (aguapé) ocorre abundantemente na região; OBJETIVO: O objetivo desse estudo foi verificar o efeito de diferentes dosagens do petróleo de Urucu (0; 0,5; 1,5 e 3,0 L.m-2) na biomassa viva e morta de E. crassipes e em algumas características físicas e químicas da água; MÉTODOS: O experimento teve oitenta e quatro dias de duração. A cada sete dias foi determinada a biomassa (viva e morta) de E. crassipes e os valores de temperatura, pH, condutividade elétrica e oxigênio dissolvido da água; RESULTADOS: A dosagem de 0,5 L.m-2 foi suficiente para causar mortalidade parcial (48%) em E. crassipes após trinta e cinco dias de exposição ao petróleo. A dosagem de 3,0 L.m-2 causou mortalidade total (100%) em E. crassipes em oitenta e quatro dias de exposição. A decomposição do petróleo e da biomassa morta de E. crassipes provocam a redução do oxigênio dissolvido e do pH, e aumento da condutividade elétrica e de fósforo total na água; CONCLUSÕES: Nós concluímos que um derramamento de petróleo pode provocar mortalidade total em uma população de uma espécie de macrófita, mas não em uma outra. Isto pode alterar a diversidade de espécies de macrófitas na região impactada. No caso de Eichhornia crassipes e Pistia stratiotes, um derramamento de petróleo de Urucu pode favorecer E. crassipes, a espécie menos sensível ao petróleo.

Biosurfactants production by yeasts using soybean oil and glycerol as low cost substrate

Biosurfactants are bioactive agents that can be produced by many different microorganisms. Among those, special attention is given to yeasts, since they can produce many types of biosurfactants in large scale, using several kinds of substrates, justifying its use for industrial production of those products. For this production to be economically viable, the use of residual carbon sources is recommended. The present study isolated yeasts from soil contaminated with petroleum oil hydrocarbons and assessed their capacity for producing biosurfactants in low cost substrates. From a microbial consortium enriched, seven yeasts were isolated, all showing potential for producing biosurfactants in soybean oil. The isolate LBPF 3, characterized as Candida antarctica, obtained the highest levels of production - with a final production of 13.86 g/L. The isolate LBPF 9, using glycerol carbon source, obtained the highest reduction in surface tension in the growth medium: approximately 43% of reduction after 24 hours of incubation. The products obtained by the isolates presented surfactant activity, which reduced water surface tension to values that varied from 34 mN/m, obtained from the product of isolates LBPF 3 and 16 LBPF 7 (respectively characterized as Candida antarctica and Candida albicans) to 43 mN/m from the isolate LPPF 9, using glycerol as substrate. The assessed isolates all showed potential for the production of biosurfactants in conventional sources of carbon as well as in agroindustrial residue, especially in glycerol.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa LBI production as an integrated process using the wastes from sunflower-oil refining as a substrate

Pseudomonas aeruginosa LBI produced surface active rhamnolipids when cultivated on waste from the sunflower-oil process under different conditions. These biosurfactants, which reduce the superficial and interfacial tensions between fluids, offer advantages over their chemical counterparts, especially because of their ecological acceptability. These molecules can be used in fields as diverse as chemical, pharmaceutical and petrochemical industries. In this work, we present the effect of C/N ratio on growth and production yield. The best production yields (Y-P/S) were achieved for C/N ratios (in g/g) of 8/1 (0.22) and 6.4/1 (0.23). The product concentration was very satisfactory (7.3 g/L) at C/N ratio of 8/1, especially when considering that the substrate was basically composed of wastes that would otherwise constitute an environmental disposal problem. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular analysis of the bacterial diversity in a specialized consortium for diesel oil degradation

Diesel oil is a compound derived from petroleum, consisting primarily of hydrocarbons. Poor conditions in transportation and storage of this product can contribute significantly to accidental spills causing serious ecological problems in soil and water and affecting the diversity of the microbial environment. The cloning and sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene is one of the molecular techniques that allows estimation and comparison of the microbial diversity in different environmental samples. The aim of this work was to estimate the diversity of microorganisms from the Bacteria domain in a consortium specialized in diesel oil degradation through partial sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. After the extraction of DNA metagenomics, the material was amplified by PCR reaction using specific oligonucleotide primers for the 16S rRNA gene. The PCR products were cloned into a pGEM-T-Easy vector (Promega), and Escherichia coli was used as the host cell for recombinant DNAs. The partial clone sequencing was obtained using universal oligonucleotide primers from the vector. The genetic library obtained generated 431 clones. All the sequenced clones presented similarity to phylum Proteobacteria, with Gammaproteobacteria the most present group (49.8 % of the clones), followed by Alphaproteobacteira (44.8 %) and Betaproteobacteria (5.4 %). The Pseudomonas genus was the most abundant in the metagenomic library, followed by the Parvibaculum and the Sphingobium genus, respectively. After partial sequencing of the 16S rRNA, the diversity of the bacterial consortium was estimated using DOTUR software. When comparing these sequences to the database from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), a strong correlation was found between the data generated by the software used and the data deposited in NCBI.

Molecular Identification and Characterization of Ileal and Cecal Fungus Communities in Broilers Given Probiotics, Specific Essential Oil Blends, and Under Mixed Eimeria Infection

Broiler digestive tract fungal communities have gained far less scrutiny than that given corresponding bacterial communities. Attention given poultry-associated fungi have focused primarily on feed-associated toxin-producers, yeast, and yeast products. The current project focused on the use of pyrosequencing and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) to identify and monitor broiler digestive fungal communities. Eight different treatments were included. Four controls were an Uninfected-Unmedicated Control, an Unmedicated-Infected Control, the antibiotic bacitracin methylene disalicylate plus the ionophore monensin as Positive Control, and the ionophore monensin alone as a Negative Control. Four treatments were two probiotics (BC-30 and Calsporin) and two specific essential oil blends (Crina Poultry Plus and Crina Poultry AF). All chickens except the Unmedicated-Uninfected Control were given, at 15 days of age, a standard oral Eimeria inoculum of sporulated oocysts. Ileal and cecal digesta were collected at pre-Eimeria infection at 14 days of age and at 7 days post-Eimeria infection at 22 days of age. Extracted cecal DNA was analyzed by pyrosequencing to examine the impact of diet supplements and Eimeria infection on individual constituents in the fungal community, while DGGE was used to compare more qualitative changes in ileal and cecal communities. Pyrosequencing identified three phyla, seven classes, eight orders, 13 families, 17 genera, and 23 fungal species. Ileal and cecal DGGE patterns showed fungal communities were clustered mainly into pre- and post-infection patterns. Post-infection Unmedicated-Uninfected patterns were clustered with pre-infection groups demonstrating a strong effect of Eimeria infection on digestive fungal populations. These combined techniques offered added versatility towards unraveling the effects of enteropathogen infection and performance enhancing feed additives on broiler digestive microflora.

Sistema inteligente para detecção de vazamentos em dutos de petróleo usando transformada Wavelet e redes neurais

This work consists in the use of techniques of signals processing and artificial neural networks to identify leaks in pipes with multiphase flow. In the traditional methods of leak detection exists a great difficulty to mount a profile, that is adjusted to the found in real conditions of the oil transport. These difficult conditions go since the unevenly soil that cause columns or vacuum throughout pipelines until the presence of multiphases like water, gas and oil; plus other components as sand, which use to produce discontinuous flow off and diverse variations. To attenuate these difficulties, the transform wavelet was used to map the signal pressure in different resolution plan allowing the extraction of descriptors that identify leaks patterns and with then to provide training for the neural network to learning of how to classify this pattern and report whenever this characterize leaks. During the tests were used transient and regime signals and pipelines with punctures with size variations from ½' to 1' of diameter to simulate leaks and between Upanema and Estreito B, of the UN-RNCE of the Petrobras, where it was possible to detect leaks. The results show that the proposed descriptors considered, based in statistical methods applied in domain transform, are sufficient to identify leaks patterns and make it possible to train the neural classifier to indicate the occurrence of pipeline leaks