Effects of age and alcohol exposure during early life on pyramidal cell numbers in the CA1-CA3 region of the rat hippocampus

We have previously shown that exposing rats to a relatively high dose of ethanol during early postnatal life can result in an alteration in spatial learning ability. The hippocampal formation is known to be involved in the control of this ability. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure of rats to ethanol during early postnatal life had either immediate or delayed effects on the numbers of pyramidal cells in the CA1-CA3 subregion of the hippocampus. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol at postnatal day 10-15 by placing them for 3 h/day in a chamber containing ethanol vapor. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anesthetized and killed at 16 and 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle was used to determine the volumes of the CA1 and CA2+CA3 regions. The physical disector method was used to estimate the numerical density of neurons in each of the subdivisions. The total number of pyramidal cells was calculated by multiplying the appropriate estimates of the numerical density by the volume. There were significant age-related reductions in the total numbers of pyramidal cells at 16-30 days of age irrespective of the groups examined. Ethanol treated rats were found to have slightly but significantly fewer pyramidal cell neurons than either the MRC or SC groups. These observations indicate that pyramidal cells in the hippocampus may be vulnerable to a relatively high dose of ethanol exposure during this short period of early postnatal life. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

(Review) Body mass index and risk of diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region

Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

An assessment of biological and population parameters of the Common whelk, Buccinum undatum (L.) in the region of the North West Irish whelk fishery

The Common whelk, Buccinum undatum (L.) is a conspicuous benthic scavenger in Irish waters, and is a valuable fisheries resource in South East Ireland. B. undatum is fished in many parts of its range, and previous studies have shown that certain life history parameters, which vary with location, make this species vulnerable to overexploitation. This makes research into each exploited stock essential to ensure sustainable fisheries management of the species. In 2003, interest in B. undatum as a complementary species in the inshore fishery east of the Inishowen Peninsula, North West Ireland, initiated investigation into fisheries related biological and population aspects of the species in this region. The current study presents estimates of spatial variation and density of the stock, size at age and growth rates, size and age at onset of sexual maturity, and timing of reproductive events in the region of the North West Irish whelk fishery for the period of June 2003 to May 2004. Analysis of variance of the total shell length of whelk landings to the fishery was conducted over spatial scales of fishing pot, fishing string and landings to vessels. Landings varied significantly in shell length at the spatial scale at which whelks are attracted to baited pots, but did not vary significantly over larger spatial scales. Depletion estimates of stock density from fisheries derived Catch per Unit Effort data and a mark re-capture experiment estimate 0.134 - 0.227 whelks per m2. Two independent methods of age determination found similar growth logistics functions for B. undatum.Modal analysis of length frequency distribution of landings to the fishery estimated symptotic length, Leo = 151.64 mm and Brody growth coefficient, K = 0.04. Analysis of the striae in individual opercula, where each stria was found to represent annual growth, estimated Loo = 137.73 mm and K = 0.12. Common whelks in the region of the North West Irish whelk fishery grow slowly and are long-lived, with 19 opercula striae recorded in one individual. Onset of sexual maturity is late, and no sex-specific differences in size or age at maturity were determined in the present study. Males were found to achieve sexual maturity at 83.30 ± 10.77 mm, and 8.9 - 11.1 years of age, and females at 82.62 ± 10.68 mm and 8.8 to 11.1 years of age. Systematic observations of reproductive events, including histological changes to the female ovary and male testis, and changes in the size and mass of body components, suggest that breeding occurred between the autumn and winter months of October and December 2003. Biological aspects of B. undatum in the study region are compared with previous studies from other regions, and discussed in relation to sustainable management of the fishery.

Generic super-exponential stability of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this article, we consider solutions starting close to some linearly stable invariant tori in an analytic Hamiltonian system and we prove results of stability for a super-exponentially long interval of time, under generic conditions. The proof combines classical Birkhoff normal forms and a new method to obtain generic Nekhoroshev estimates developed by the author and L. Niederman in another paper. We will mainly focus on the neighbourhood of elliptic fixed points, the other cases being completely similar.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

Optimal robust estimates using the Hellinger distance

Optimal robust M-estimates of a multidimensional parameter are described using Hampel's infinitesimal approach. The optimal estimates are derived by minimizing a measure of efficiency under the model, subject to a bounded measure of infinitesimal robustness. To this purpose we define measures of efficiency and infinitesimal sensitivity based on the Hellinger distance.We show that these two measures coincide with similar ones defined by Yohai using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and therefore the corresponding optimal estimates coincide too.We also give an example where we fit a negative binomial distribution to a real dataset of "days of stay in hospital" using the optimal robust estimates.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region approach: Part I, the single-station case

We address the performance optimization problem in a single-stationmulticlass queueing network with changeover times by means of theachievable region approach. This approach seeks to obtainperformance bounds and scheduling policies from the solution of amathematical program over a relaxation of the system's performanceregion. Relaxed formulations (including linear, convex, nonconvexand positive semidefinite constraints) of this region are developedby formulating equilibrium relations satisfied by the system, withthe help of Palm calculus. Our contributions include: (1) newconstraints formulating equilibrium relations on server dynamics;(2) a flow conservation interpretation of the constraintspreviously derived by the potential function method; (3) newpositive semidefinite constraints; (4) new work decomposition lawsfor single-station multiclass queueing networks, which yield newconvex constraints; (5) a unified buffer occupancy method ofperformance analysis obtained from the constraints; (6) heuristicscheduling policies from the solution of the relaxations.

Repeatability of adaptability and stability parameters of common bean in unpredictable environments

The objective of this work was to estimate the repeatability of adaptability and stability parameters of common bean between years, within each biennium from 2003 to 2012, in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Grain yield data from trials of value for cultivation and use common bean were analyzed. Grain yield, ecovalence, regression coefficient, and coefficient of determination were estimated considering location and sowing season per year, within each biennium. Subsequently, a analysis of variance these estimates was carried out, and repeatability was estimated in the biennia. Repeatability estimate for grain yield in most of the biennia was relatively high, but for ecovalence and regression coefficient it was null or of small magnitude, which indicates that confidence on identification of common bean lines for recommendation is greater when using means of yield, instead of stability parameters.

Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.

Stability of preconditioned finite volume schemes at low Mach numbers

In [4], Guillard and Viozat propose a finite volume method for the simulation of inviscid steady as well as unsteady flows at low Mach numbers, based on a preconditioning technique. The scheme satisfies the results of a single scale asymptotic analysis in a discrete sense and comprises the advantage that this can be derived by a slight modification of the dissipation term within the numerical flux function. Unfortunately, it can be observed by numerical experiments that the preconditioned approach combined with an explicit time integration scheme turns out to be unstable if the time step Dt does not satisfy the requirement to be O(M2) as the Mach number M tends to zero, whereas the corresponding standard method remains stable up to Dt=O(M), M to 0, which results from the well-known CFL-condition. We present a comprehensive mathematical substantiation of this numerical phenomenon by means of a von Neumann stability analysis, which reveals that in contrast to the standard approach, the dissipation matrix of the preconditioned numerical flux function possesses an eigenvalue growing like M-2 as M tends to zero, thus causing the diminishment of the stability region of the explicit scheme. Thereby, we present statements for both the standard preconditioner used by Guillard and Viozat [4] and the more general one due to Turkel [21]. The theoretical results are after wards confirmed by numerical experiments.

On the stability of populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects

A key concern for conservation biologists is whether populations of plants and animals are likely to fluctuate widely in number or remain relatively stable around some steady-state value. In our study of 634 populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects, we find that most can be expected to remain stable despite year to year fluctuations caused by environmental factors. Mean return rates were generally around one but were higher in insects (1.09 +/- 0.02 SE) and declined with body size in mammals. In general, this is good news for conservation, as stable populations are less likely to go extinct. However, the lower return rates of the large mammals may make them more vulnerable to extinction. Our estimates of return rates were generally well below the threshold for chaos, which makes it unlikely that chaotic dynamics occur in natural populations - one of ecology's key unanswered questions.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

DNA variation in a 13-Mb region including the F9 gene: inferring the genealogical history and causal role of a hemophilia B mutation (IVS 5+13 A -> G)

About 5.5% of all UK hemophilia B patients have the base substitution IVS 5+13 A-->G as the only change in their factor (F)IX gene (F9). This generates a novel donor splice site which fits the consensus better than the normal intron 5 donor splice. Use of the novel splice site should result in a missense mutation followed by the abnormal addition of four amino acids to the patients' FIX. In order to explain the prevalence of this mutation, its genealogical history is examined. Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism in the 21 reference UK individuals (from different families) with the above mutation showed identical haplotypes in 19 while two differed from the rest and from each other. In order to investigate the history of the mutation and to verify that it had occurred independently more than once, the sequence variation in 1.5-kb segments scattered over a 13-Mb region including F9 was examined in 18 patients and 15 controls. This variation was then analyzed with a recently developed Bayesian approach that reconstructs the genealogy of the gene investigated while providing evidence of independent mutations that contribute disconnected branches to the genealogical tree. The method also provides minimum estimates of the age of the mutation inherited by the members of coherent trees. This revealed that 17 or 18 mutant genes descend from a founder who probably lived 450 years ago, while one patient carries an independent mutation. The independent recurrence of the IVS5+13 A-->G mutation strongly supports the conclusion that it is the cause of these patients' mild hemophilia.

Exact error estimates and optimal randomized algorithms for integration

Exact error estimates for evaluating multi-dimensional integrals are considered. An estimate is called exact if the rates of convergence for the low- and upper-bound estimate coincide. The algorithm with such an exact rate is called optimal. Such an algorithm has an unimprovable rate of convergence. The problem of existing exact estimates and optimal algorithms is discussed for some functional spaces that define the regularity of the integrand. Important for practical computations data classes are considered: classes of functions with bounded derivatives and Holder type conditions. The aim of the paper is to analyze the performance of two optimal classes of algorithms: deterministic and randomized for computing multidimensional integrals. It is also shown how the smoothness of the integrand can be exploited to construct better randomized algorithms.

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km2 area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements.