919 resultados para Model-based Categorical Sequence Clustering


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In the context of the investigation of the use of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) for the evaluation of fingerprint evidence, the current study presents investigations into the variability of scores from an AFIS system when fingermarks from a known donor are compared to fingerprints that are not from the same source. The ultimate goal is to propose a model, based on likelihood ratios, which allows the evaluation of mark-to-print comparisons. In particular, this model, through its use of AFIS technology, benefits from the possibility of using a large amount of data, as well as from an already built-in proximity measure, the AFIS score. More precisely, the numerator of the LR is obtained from scores issued from comparisons between impressions from the same source and showing the same minutia configuration. The denominator of the LR is obtained by extracting scores from comparisons of the questioned mark with a database of non-matching sources. This paper focuses solely on the assignment of the denominator of the LR. We refer to it by the generic term of between-finger variability. The issues addressed in this paper in relation to between-finger variability are the required sample size, the influence of the finger number and general pattern, as well as that of the number of minutiae included and their configuration on a given finger. Results show that reliable estimation of between-finger variability is feasible with 10,000 scores. These scores should come from the appropriate finger number/general pattern combination as defined by the mark. Furthermore, strategies of obtaining between-finger variability when these elements cannot be conclusively seen on the mark (and its position with respect to other marks for finger number) have been presented. These results immediately allow case-by-case estimation of the between-finger variability in an operational setting.

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OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.

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Los sistemas de radio cognitivos son una solución a la deficiente distribución del espectro inalámbrico de frecuencias. Usando acceso dinámico al medio, los usuarios secundarios pueden comunicarse en canales de frecuencia disponibles, mientras los usuarios asignados no están usando dichos canales. Un buen sistema de mensajería de control es necesario para que los usuarios secundarios no interfieran con los usuarios primarios en las redes de radio cognitivas. Para redes en donde los usuarios son heterogéneos en frecuencia, es decir, no poseen los mismos canales de frecuencia para comunicarse, el grupo de canales utilizado para transmitir información de control debe elegirse cuidadosamente. Por esta razón, en esta tesis se estudian las ideas básicas de los esquemas de mensajería de control usados en las redes de radio cognitivas y se presenta un esquema adecuado para un control adecuado para usuarios heterogéneos en canales de frecuencia. Para ello, primero se presenta una nueva taxonomía para clasificar las estrategias de mensajería de control, identificando las principales características que debe cumplir un esquema de control para sistemas heterogéneos en frecuencia. Luego, se revisan diversas técnicas matemáticas para escoger el mínimo número de canales por los cuales se transmite la información de control. Después, se introduce un modelo de un esquema de mensajería de control que use el mínimo número de canales y que utilice las características de los sistemas heterogéneos en frecuencia. Por último, se comparan diversos esquemas de mensajería de control en términos de la eficiencia de transmisión.

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AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.

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OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

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Los sistemas de radio cognitivos son una solución a la deficiente distribución del espectro inalámbrico de frecuencias. Usando acceso dinámico al medio, los usuarios secundarios pueden comunicarse en canales de frecuencia disponibles, mientras los usuarios asignados no están usando dichos canales. Un buen sistema de mensajería de control es necesario para que los usuarios secundarios no interfieran con los usuarios primarios en las redes de radio cognitivas. Para redes en donde los usuarios son heterogéneos en frecuencia, es decir, no poseen los mismos canales de frecuencia para comunicarse, el grupo de canales utilizado para transmitir información de control debe elegirse cuidadosamente. Por esta razón, en esta tesis se estudian las ideas básicas de los esquemas de mensajería de control usados en las redes de radio cognitivas y se presenta un esquema adecuado para un control adecuado para usuarios heterogéneos en canales de frecuencia. Para ello, primero se presenta una nueva taxonomía para clasificar las estrategias de mensajería de control, identificando las principales características que debe cumplir un esquema de control para sistemas heterogéneos en frecuencia. Luego, se revisan diversas técnicas matemáticas para escoger el mínimo número de canales por los cuales se transmite la información de control. Después, se introduce un modelo de un esquema de mensajería de control que use el mínimo número de canales y que utilice las características de los sistemas heterogéneos en frecuencia. Por último, se comparan diversos esquemas de mensajería de control en términos de la eficiencia de transmisión.

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The 2009-2010 Data Fusion Contest organized by the Data Fusion Technical Committee of the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society was focused on the detection of flooded areas using multi-temporal and multi-modal images. Both high spatial resolution optical and synthetic aperture radar data were provided. The goal was not only to identify the best algorithms (in terms of accuracy), but also to investigate the further improvement derived from decision fusion. This paper presents the four awarded algorithms and the conclusions of the contest, investigating both supervised and unsupervised methods and the use of multi-modal data for flood detection. Interestingly, a simple unsupervised change detection method provided similar accuracy as supervised approaches, and a digital elevation model-based predictive method yielded a comparable projected change detection map without using post-event data.

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This paper presents a new type of very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of a PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the influence of this rain on a PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) on a catchment area in Switzerland. The spatiotemporal distribution of the PMP was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flow, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the resurgence and the snowmelt. These added factors make the developed model closer to reality and also offer flexibility in the initial condition that is added to the factors concerning the PMP, such as the duration of the rain, the speed and direction of the wind. All these initial conditions taken together offer a complete image of the PMF.

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Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a l’Institut Desenvolupat a School of Comparative American Studies adscrit a la University of Warwick, Regne Unit, entre 2011 i 2012. Aquest projecte analitza en primer lloc la mobilització popular del primer liberalisme i la formació de les primeres organitzacions polítiques liberals que es constituïren a partir de les societats secretes i es propagaren a través dels principals centres de sociabilitat liberal: les societats patriòtiques. En segon lloc mitjançant l’estudi de la mobilitat dels liberals entre l’Espanya metropolitana i el virregnat de Nueva Espanya demostra com es dibuixà un nou model polític basat en el federalisme. El tercer aspecte d’anàlisi és com els exiliats catalans a Anglaterra reberen el suport de la Foreign Bible Society perquè havia mantingut contactes des dels primers anys vint amb l’alt clergat espanyol. El darrer aspecte de la recerca abasta l’estudi de l’espai urbà en relació amb les pràctiques polítiques dels ciutadans a partir de l’anàlisi de la formació i ampliació de les places de la ciutat de Barcelona durant la primera meitat del segle XIX.

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Introduction: Responses to external stimuli are typically investigated by averaging peri-stimulus electroencephalography (EEG) epochs in order to derive event-related potentials (ERPs) across the electrode montage, under the assumption that signals that are related to the external stimulus are fixed in time across trials. We demonstrate the applicability of a single-trial model based on patterns of scalp topographies (De Lucia et al, 2007) that can be used for ERP analysis at the single-subject level. The model is able to classify new trials (or groups of trials) with minimal a priori hypotheses, using information derived from a training dataset. The features used for the classification (the topography of responses and their latency) can be neurophysiologically interpreted, because a difference in scalp topography indicates a different configuration of brain generators. An above chance classification accuracy on test datasets implicitly demonstrates the suitability of this model for EEG data. Methods: The data analyzed in this study were acquired from two separate visual evoked potential (VEP) experiments. The first entailed passive presentation of checkerboard stimuli to each of the four visual quadrants (hereafter, "Checkerboard Experiment") (Plomp et al, submitted). The second entailed active discrimination of novel versus repeated line drawings of common objects (hereafter, "Priming Experiment") (Murray et al, 2004). Four subjects per experiment were analyzed, using approx. 200 trials per experimental condition. These trials were randomly separated in training (90%) and testing (10%) datasets in 10 independent shuffles. In order to perform the ERP analysis we estimated the statistical distribution of voltage topographies by a Mixture of Gaussians (MofGs), which reduces our original dataset to a small number of representative voltage topographies. We then evaluated statistically the degree of presence of these template maps across trials and whether and when this was different across experimental conditions. Based on these differences, single-trials or sets of a few single-trials were classified as belonging to one or the other experimental condition. Classification performance was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: For the Checkerboard Experiment contrasts entailed left vs. right visual field presentations for upper and lower quadrants, separately. The average posterior probabilities, indicating the presence of the computed template maps in time and across trials revealed significant differences starting at ~60-70 ms post-stimulus. The average ROC curve area across all four subjects was 0.80 and 0.85 for upper and lower quadrants, respectively and was in all cases significantly higher than chance (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). In the Priming Experiment, we contrasted initial versus repeated presentations of visual object stimuli. Their posterior probabilities revealed significant differences, which started at 250ms post-stimulus onset. The classification accuracy rates with single-trial test data were at chance level. We therefore considered sub-averages based on five single trials. We found that for three out of four subjects' classification rates were significantly above chance level (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). Conclusions: The main advantage of the present approach is that it is based on topographic features that are readily interpretable along neurophysiologic lines. As these maps were previously normalized by the overall strength of the field potential on the scalp, a change in their presence across trials and between conditions forcibly reflects a change in the underlying generator configurations. The temporal periods of statistical difference between conditions were estimated for each training dataset for ten shuffles of the data. Across the ten shuffles and in both experiments, we observed a high level of consistency in the temporal periods over which the two conditions differed. With this method we are able to analyze ERPs at the single-subject level providing a novel tool to compare normal electrophysiological responses versus single cases that cannot be considered part of any cohort of subjects. This aspect promises to have a strong impact on both basic and clinical research.

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In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

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Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

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The websites are becoming the firms’ first contact interface with their clients. Hence, understanding customers’ online attitudes and behaviors have been capturing increased research attention. The extant research has pointed customers’ satisfaction with the websites as the main reason for customers’ online behaviors. This research has used mostly variables related to the characteristics of the websites as the predictors of customers’ website satisfaction. However, recent research shows that groups of individuals displaying distinctive characteristics react differently to the same context. Therefore, behavior may be considerably different among groups of customers. In this study, we develop a conceptual model of the influence of individual characteristics on the traditional website quality – website satisfaction relationship. We propose a model based on the construct of consumer technology attractiveness (CTA) to represent the genuine positive propensity of individuals toward technology. We further test the moderating effect of this construct on the commonly used predictors of customer’s website satisfaction using Hierarchical Multiple Regression. The empirical study was based on websites of banks operating in Portuguese market. The commercial banking industry is one of the Portuguese industries that better uses the Internet to establish relationships with clients. Data were collected through an online website satisfaction survey, participated by the lecturers and postgraduate students from four Portuguese Universities and Polytechnic Institutes. Our final sample comprised 276 valid questionnaires. Our study permits to conclude that the most commonly used antecedents of website overall satisfaction are still relevant for analyzing consumer’s satisfaction with the banks websites. We also conclude that CTA has a significant moderating effect on almost all customers’ website satisfaction variables used in the study. This study contributes to highlight the theoretical importance and significant influence of consumers’ personal characteristics on their online behavior. Moreover, for the practitioners, a better understanding of these individual characteristics will assist them in developing customized websites that will meet customers’ expectations. O estudo dos comportamentos dos consumidores em ambientes online tem vindo a ter um crescente interesse, uma vez que os websites estão a transformar-se num importante ponto de contacto entre as empresas e os seus clientes. A satisfação dos clientes com os websites tem sido apontada pela Literatura como o principal condicionante dos comportamentos online dos consumidores. No entanto, a investigação científica tem conseguido provar que grupos de indivíduos com características distintas reagem de forma diferente quando submetidos a contextos idênticos, o que poderá levar a diferenças significativas no comportamento online de consumidores pertencentes a diferentes grupos. Neste estudo desenvolvemos um modelo conceptual que reflecte a influência de características individuais na relação entre a qualidade e a satisfação com os websites. Propomos um modelo assente na atractividade tecnológica do consumidor (CTA), que representa a propensão genuína que os indivíduos possuem em relação à tecnologia. Testamos o efeito moderador deste conceito sobre as variáveis mais utilizadas nos estudos sobre a satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, utilizando a Regressão Múltipla Hierárquica. O estudo empírico baseou-se nos websites dos bancos que operam no mercado português, uma vez que este sector é um dos que melhor utiliza a Internet na sua relação com os clientes. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário sobre satisfação com os websites, colocado online e dirigido a docentes e estudantes de programas de pós-graduações, mestrados e doutoramentos de quatro universidades e instituto politécnico portugueses, tendo resultado numa amostra final de 276 questionários validados estatisticamente. Este estudo permitiu concluir que as variáveis que são mais utilizadas como antecedentes da satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, continuam a ser igualmente válidas para a análise dos websites dos bancos. Também concluímos que a CTA tem efeitos moderadores significativos na grande maioria das variáveis utilizadas neste estudo. Assim, conseguimos realçar a importância teórica das características pessoais dos consumidores no seu comportamento online. Para os gestores, uma melhor compreensão destas características individuais permitir-lhes-á desenvolver websites customizados que irão satisfazer as expectativas dos seus clientes.

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Secreted proteases constitute potential virulence factors of dermatophytes. A total of seven genes encoding putative serine proteases of the subtilisin family (SUB) were isolated in Trichophyton rubrum. Based on sequence data and intron-exon structure, a phylogenetic analysis of subtilisins from T. rubrum and other fungi revealed a presumed ancestral lineage comprising T. rubrum SUB2 and Aspergillus SUBs. All other SUBs (SUB1, SUB3-7) are dermatophyte-specific and have apparently emerged more recently, through successive gene duplication events. We showed that two subtilisins, Sub3 and Sub4, were detected in culture supernatants of T. rubrum grown in a medium containing soy protein as a sole nitrogen source. Both recombinant enzymes produced in Pichia pastoris are highly active on keratin azure suggesting that these proteases play an important role in invasion of keratinised tissues by the fungus. The set of deduced amino acid sequences of T. rubrum SUB ORFs allowed the identification of orthologous Subs secreted by other dermatophyte species using proteolysis and mass spectrometry.