Position sensorless electrically excited synchronous motor drive for industrial use based on direct flux linkage and torque control

Synchronous machines with an AC converter are used mainly in large drives, for example in ship propulsion drives as well as in rolling mill drives in steel industry. These motors are used because of their high efficiency, high overload capacity and good performance in the field weakening area. Present day drives for electrically excited synchronous motors are equipped with position sensors. Most drives for electrically excited synchronous motors will be equipped with position sensors also in future. This kind of drives with good dynamics are mainly used in metal industry. Drives without a position sensor can be used e.g. in ship propulsion and in large pump and blower drives. Nowadays, these drives are equipped with a position sensor, too. The tendency is to avoid a position sensor if possible, since a sensor reduces the reliability of the drive and increases costs (latter is not very significant for large drives). A new control technique for a synchronous motor drive is a combination of the Direct Flux Linkage Control (DFLC) based on a voltage model and a supervising method (e.g. current model). This combination is called Direct Torque Control method (DTC). In the case of the position sensorless drive, the DTC can be implemented by using other supervising methods that keep the stator flux linkage origin centered. In this thesis, a method for the observation of the drift of the real stator flux linkage in the DTC drive is introduced. It is also shown how this method can be used as a supervising method that keeps the stator flux linkage origin centered in the case of the DTC. In the position sensorless case, a synchronous motor can be started up with the DTC control, when a method for the determination of the initial rotor position presented in this thesis is used. The load characteristics of such a drive are not very good at low rotational speeds. Furthermore, continuous operation at a zero speed and at a low rotational speed is not possible, which is partly due to the problems related to the flux linkage estimate. For operation in a low speed area, a stator current control method based on the DFLC modulator (DMCQ is presented. With the DMCC, it is possible to start up and operate a synchronous motor at a zero speed and at low rotational speeds in general. The DMCC is necessary in situations where high torque (e.g. nominal torque) is required at the starting moment, or if the motor runs several seconds at a zero speed or at a low speed range (up to 2 Hz). The behaviour of the described methods is shown with test results. The test results are presented for the direct flux linkage and torque controlled test drive system with a 14.5 kVA, four pole salient pole synchronous motor with a damper winding and electric excitation. The static accuracy of the drive is verified by measuring the torque in a static load operation, and the dynamics of the drive is proven in load transient tests. The performance of the drive concept presented in this work is sufficient e.g. for ship propulsion and for large pump drives. Furthermore, the developed methods are almost independent of the machine parameters.

The state of research and development in Australia: implications for future development

The scale of research and development (R&D), and other technological activities, and the way in which the available resources are managed and organized at the enterprise and national level contribute to the rate of technological change in a country. A well organized national innovation system can be a powerful engine of progress, whereas a lack of interaction between institutions results in the slowing down of technological change, thereby diminishing its contribution to economic growth and welfare. The research object of this thesis is Australia’s national innovation system and the state of R&D in Australia. In order to establish an overall picture of the situation and to be able to make recommendations for future development, the general level of R&D activity and the main performers and funders of R&D within the system are analyzed. The framework policies supporting R&D and prevalent dynamics between different actors and sectors are of specific interest of the research. The findings reveal that the Australian culture is not a culture of research and innovation and that the main challenge is building a coherent system with strong domestic and international linkages.

A study of combustion phenomena in circulating fluidized beds by developing and applying experimental and modelling methods for laboratory-scale reactors

The results shown in this thesis are based on selected publications of the 2000s decade. The work was carried out in several national and EC funded public research projects and in close cooperation with industrial partners. The main objective of the thesis was to study and quantify the most important phenomena of circulating fluidized bed combustors by developing and applying proper experimental and modelling methods using laboratory scale equipments. An understanding of the phenomena plays an essential role in the development of combustion and emission performance, and the availability and controls of CFB boilers. Experimental procedures to study fuel combustion behaviour under CFB conditions are presented in the thesis. Steady state and dynamic measurements under well controlled conditions were carried out to produce the data needed for the development of high efficiency, utility scale CFB technology. The importance of combustion control and furnace dynamics is emphasized when CFB boilers are scaled up with a once through steam cycle. Qualitative information on fuel combustion characteristics was obtained directly by comparing flue gas oxygen responses during the impulse change experiments with fuel feed. A one-dimensional, time dependent model was developed to analyse the measurement data Emission formation was studied combined with fuel combustion behaviour. Correlations were developed for NO, N2O, CO and char loading, as a function of temperature and oxygen concentration in the bed area. An online method to characterize char loading under CFB conditions was developed and validated with the pilot scale CFB tests. Finally, a new method to control air and fuel feeds in CFB combustion was introduced. The method is based on models and an analysis of the fluctuation of the flue gas oxygen concentration. The effect of high oxygen concentrations on fuel combustion behaviour was also studied to evaluate the potential of CFB boilers to apply oxygenfiring technology to CCS. In future studies, it will be necessary to go through the whole scale up chain from laboratory phenomena devices through pilot scale test rigs to large scale, commercial boilers in order to validate the applicability and scalability of the, results. This thesis shows the chain between the laboratory scale phenomena test rig (bench scale) and the CFB process test rig (pilot). CFB technology has been scaled up successfully from an industrial scale to a utility scale during the last decade. The work shown in the thesis, for its part, has supported the development by producing new detailed information on combustion under CFB conditions.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Influence of urbanization on land surface temperature in Recife city

Urbanization has caused significant environmental impacts, replacing natural surfaces by buildings, decreasing green vegetated areas, soil sealing and atmospheric pollution which contribute to increase the land surface temperature in such areas. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the influence of urbanization on land surface temperature (Ts) in Recife city - Pernambuco (PE), in Brazil, using the Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor images from Landsat 5 satellite. To perform the study, images of August 4, 1998 and September 6, 2010 were obtained and processed to generate Ts thematic maps of Recife-PE and of two districts of this city (Curado and Casa Amarela), in order to analyze the transformation dynamics that has occurred in the area. Through the profile produced for the study area, a spatial and temporal increase of the Ts surface was noticeable in the suburb-downtown direction: 6°C of difference between these areas. The Casa Amarela district, with high urban concentration, presented the highest Ts values observed (>27°C).

Serosurvey of Leptospirainterrogans, Brucellaabortus and Chlamydophilaabortus infection in free-ranging giant anteaters (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) from Brazil

Abstract:A serological survey for antibodies against Leptospira interrogans, Brucella abortus, and Chlamydophila abortus was conducted in 21 clinically healthy, free-ranging giant ant- eaters (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) from Parque Nacional das Emas (Goiás State, Brazil; n=6), Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra (Minas Gerais State, Brazil; n=9), and RPPN SESC Pantanal (Mato Grosso State, Brazil; n=6) between July 2001 and September 2006. Sera were screened for antibodies against 22 serovars of Leptospira interrogans with a microscopic agglutination test. Twelve tested positive for L. interrogansserovars sentot (n=5 in PN Emas, n=2 in PN Serra da Canastra), butembo (n=2 in PN Serra da Canastra), autumnalis, bataviae, and shermani/icterohaemorrhagiae(n=1 each in SESC Pantanal)One adult female tested positive for B. abortus with the buffered plate antigen test. All sera were negative for C. abortususing the complement fixation text. This is the first report of pathogens that may interfere with the reproduction and population dynamics of free-ranging giant anteaters.

Mechanical design and analysis of modular active magnetic bearing test rig

Tässä työssä on tutkittu modulaarisen aktiivimagneettilaakeroidun koelaitteen mekaanista suunnittelua ja analysointia. Suurnopeusroottorin suunnittelun teoria on esitelty. Lisäksi monia analyyttisiä mallinnusmenetelmiä mekaanisten kuormitusten mallintamiseksi on esitelty. Koska kyseessä on suurnopeussähkökone, roottoridynamiikka ja sen soveltuvuus suunnittelussa on esitelty. Magneettilaakerien rakenteeseen ja toimintaan on tutustuttu osana tätä työtä. Kirjallisuuskatsaus nykyisistä koelaitteista esimerkiksi komponenttien ominaisuuksien tunnistamiseen ja roottoridynamiikan tutkimuksiin on esitelty. Työn rajauksena on konseptisuunnittelu muunneltavalle magneettilaakeroidulle (AMB) koelaitteelle ja suunnitteluprosessin dokumentointi. Muunneltavuuteen päädyttiin, koska se mahdollistaa erilaisten komponenttiasetteluiden testaamisen erilaisille magneettilaakerikokoonpanoille ja roottoreille. Pääpaino tässä työssä on suurnopeus induktiokoneen roottorin suunnittelussa ja mallintamisessa. Modulaaristen toimilaitteiden kuten magneettilaakerien ja induktiosähkömoottorin rakenne on esitelty ja modulaarisen rakenteen käytettävyyden hyödyistä koelaitekäytössä on dokumentoitu. Analyyttisiä ja elementtimenetelmään perustuvia tutkimusmenetelmiä on käytetty tutkittaessa suunniteltua suurnopeusroottoria. Suunnittelun ja analysoinnin tulokset on esitelty ja verrattu keskenään eri mallinnusmenetelmien välillä. Lisäksi johtopäätökset sähkömagneettisten osien liittämisen monimutkaisuudesta ja vaatimuksista roottoriin ja toimilaitteisiin sekä mekaanisten että sähkömagneettisten ominaisuuksien optimoimiseksi on dokumentoitu.

Adaptive Dynamics of Resource Specialization

Ecological specialization in resource utilization has various facades ranging from nutritional resources via host use of parasites or phytophagous insects to local adaptation in different habitats. Therefore, the evolution of specialization affects the evolution of most other traits, which makes it one of the core issues in the theory of evolution. Hence, the evolution of specialization has gained enormous amounts of research interest, starting already from Darwin’s Origin of species in 1859. Vast majority of the theoretical studies has, however, focused on the mathematically most simple case with well-mixed populations and equilibrium dynamics. This thesis explores the possibilities to extend the evolutionary analysis of resource usage to spatially heterogeneous metapopulation models and to models with non-equilibrium dynamics. These extensions are enabled by the recent advances in the field of adaptive dynamics, which allows for a mechanistic derivation of the invasion-fitness function based on the ecological dynamics. In the evolutionary analyses, special focus is set to the case with two substitutable renewable resources. In this case, the most striking questions are, whether a generalist species is able to coexist with the two specialist species, and can such trimorphic coexistence be attained through natural selection starting from a monomorphic population. This is shown possible both due to spatial heterogeneity and due to non-equilibrium dynamics. In addition, it is shown that chaotic dynamics may sometimes inflict evolutionary suicide or cyclic evolutionary dynamics. Moreover, the relations between various ecological parameters and evolutionary dynamics are investigated. Especially, the relation between specialization and dispersal propensity turns out to be counter-intuitively non-monotonous. This observation served as inspiration to the analysis of joint evolution of dispersal and specialization, which may provide the most natural explanation to the observed coexistence of specialist and generalist species.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Integration of cooking and vacuum cooling of carrots in a same vessel

Cooked vegetables are commonly used in the preparation of ready-to-eat foods. The integration of cooking and cooling of carrots and vacuum cooling in a single vessel is described in this paper. The combination of different methods of cooking and vacuum cooling was investigated. Integrated processes of cooking and vacuum cooling in a same vessel enabled obtaining cooked and cooled carrots at the final temperature of 10 ºC, which is adequate for preparing ready-to-eat foods safely. When cooking and cooling steps were performed with the samples immersed in boiling water, the effective weight loss was approximately 3.6%. When the cooking step was performed with the samples in boiling water or steamed, and the vacuum cooling was applied after draining the boiling water, water loss ranged between 15 and 20%, which caused changes in the product texture. This problem can be solved with rehydration using a small amount of sterile cold water. The instrumental textural properties of carrots samples rehydrated at both vacuum and atmospheric conditions were very similar. Therefore, the integrated process of cooking and vacuum cooling of carrots in a single vessel is a feasible alternative for processing such kind of foods.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

Phonon spectra and thermodynamic properties of rare gas solids based on empirical and semi-empirical (ab initio) two-body potentials : a comparative study /

We study the phonon dispersion, cohesive and thermal properties of raxe gas solids Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe, using a variety of potentials obtained from different approaches; such as, fitting to crystal properties, purely ab initio calculations for molecules and dimers or ab initio calculations for solid crystalline phase, a combination of ab initio calculations and fitting to either gas phase data or sohd state properties. We explore whether potentials derived with a certain approaxih have any obvious benefit over the others in reproducing the solid state properties. In particular, we study phonon dispersion, isothermal ajid adiabatic bulk moduli, thermal expansion, and elastic (shear) constants as a function of temperatiue. Anharmonic effects on thermal expansion, specific heat, and bulk moduli have been studied using A^ perturbation theory in the high temperature limit using the neaxest-neighbor central force (nncf) model as developed by Shukla and MacDonald [4]. In our study, we find that potentials based on fitting to the crystal properties have some advantage, particularly for Kr and Xe, in terms of reproducing the thermodynamic properties over an extended range of temperatiures, but agreement with the phonon frequencies with the measured values is not guaranteed. For the lighter element Ne, the LJ potential which is based on fitting to the gas phase data produces best results for the thermodynamic properties; however, the Eggenberger potential for Ne, where the potential is based on combining ab initio quantum chemical calculations and molecular dynamics simulations, produces results that have better agreement with the measured dispersion, and elastic (shear) values. For At, the Morse-type potential, which is based on M0ller-Plesset perturbation theory to fourth order (MP4) ab initio calculations, yields the best results for the thermodynamic properties, elastic (shear) constants, and the phonon dispersion curves.

Essays in macro finance and monetary economics

Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.

Entrepreneurship and Motivation in Small Business Sector of Kerala

This thesis Entitled entrepreneurship and motivation in small business sector of kerala -A study of rubber products manufacturing industry.Rubber-based industry in Kerala was established only in the first half of the 20th century.the number of licensed manufacturers in the State has increased substantially over the years, particularly in the post- independence period. 54 rubber manufacturing units in 1965-66, the number of licensed rubber-based industrial units has increased to 1300 units in 2001-02. In 2001-02 Kerala occupied the primary position in the number of rubber goods manufacturers in the country.As per the latest report of the Third All India Census of Small Scale Industries 2001-02, Kerala has the third largest number of registered small scale units in the country next after Tamil Nadu and Utter Pradesh.This study of entrepreneurship in the small-scale rubber goods manufacturing industry in Kerala compares a cross section of successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs with respect to socio-economic characteristics and motivational dynamics. Based on a sample survey of 120 entrepreneurs of Kottayam and Ernakulam districts successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs were selected using multiple criteria. The study provides guidelines for the development of entrepreneurship in Kerala.The results on the socio-economic survey support the hypothesis that the successful entrepreneurs will differ from unsuccessful entrepreneurs with respect to education, social contacts, initial investment, sales turnover, profits, capital employed, personal income, and number of employees.Successful entrepreneurs were found to be self~starters. Successful entrepreneurs adopted a lot more technological changes than unsuccessful entrepreneurs. Successful entrepreneurs were more innovative — the percent of successful entrepreneurs and unsuccessful entrepreneurs reporting innovations in business were 31.50 and 8.50 percent respectively.

Seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at Cochin

This thesis entitled seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at cochin.The interesting aspect of studying sea level variability on different time scales can be attributed to the diversity of its applications.Study of tides could perhaps be the oldest branch of physical oceanography.The thesis is presented in seven chapters. The first chapter gives, apart from a general introduction, a survey of literature on sea level variability on different time scales - tidal, seasonal and interannual (geological scales excluded), with particular emphasis on the work carried out in the Indian waters. The second chapter is devoted to the study of observed tides at Cochin on seasonal and interannual time scales using hourly water level data for the period 1988-1993. The third chapter describes the long-term climatology of some important surface oceanographic and meteorological parameters (at Cochin) which are supposed to affect the sea level. The fourth chapter addresses the problem of seasonal forecasting of the meteorological and oceanographic parameters at Cochin using autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average techniques and testing their accuracy with the observed data for the period 1991-1993. The fifth chapter describes the seasonal cycles of sea level and the driving forces at 16 stations along the Indian subcontinent. It also addresses the observed interannual variability of sea level at 15 stations using available multi-annual data sets. The sixth chapter deals with the problem of coastal trapped waves between Cochin and Beypore off the Kerala coast using sea level and atmospheric pressure data sets for the year 1977. The seventh and the last chapter contains the summary and conclusions and future outlook based on this study.