Learning from Shocks and the Decision to Open

Two claims pervade the literature on the political economy of market reforms: that economic crises cause reforms; and that crises matter because they bring into question the validity of the economic model held to be responsible for them. Economic crises are said to spur a process of learning that is conducive to the abandonment of failing models and to the adoption of successful models. But although these claims have become the conventional wisdom, they have been hardly tested empirically due to the lack of agreement on what constitutes a crisis and to difficulties in measuring learning from them. I propose a model of rational learning from experience and apply it to the decision to open the economy. Using data from 1964 through 1990, I show that learning from the 1982 debt crisis was relevant to the first wave of adoption of an export promotion strategy, but learning was conditional on the high variability of economic outcomes in countries that opened up to trade. Learning was also symbolic in that the sheer number of other countries that liberalized was a more important driver of others’ decisions to follow suit.

Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Intervention précoce dans la phase initiale des troubles psychotiques à Lausanne: quels problèmes et quelles solutions [Early intervention for the initial phase of psychotic disorders in Lausanne: what problems and what solutions?]

Schizophrenia has long been considered with pessimism, but the recent interest in the early phase of psychotic disorders has modified this often unjustified perception. Literature has demonstrated the benefit of the development of programs specialised in the treatment of early psychosis, which tend to be developed in many countries. It is however important to match them to local needs as well as to the structure of local health services. This paper reviews elements that justify such a development in Lausanne, Switzerland, and describe its various elements.

Olfactory traces and spatial learning in rats.

We conducted an experiment to assess the use of olfactory traces for spatial orientation in an open environment in rats, Rattus norvegicus. We trained rats to locate a food source at a fixed location from different starting points, in the presence or absence of visual information. A single food source was hidden in an array of 19 petri dishes regularly arranged in an open-field arena. Rats were trained to locate the food source either in white light (with full access to distant visuospatial information) or in darkness (without any visual information). In both cases, the goal was in a fixed location relative to the spatial frame of reference. The results of this experiment revealed that the presence of noncontrolled olfactory traces coherent with the spatial frame of reference enables rats to locate a unique position as accurately in darkness as with full access to visuospatial information. We hypothesize that the olfactory traces complement the use of other orientation mechanisms, such as path integration or the reliance on visuospatial information. This experiment demonstrates that rats can rely on olfactory traces for accurate orientation, and raises questions about the establishment of such traces in the absence of any other orientation mechanism. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Sleep disorders in boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Aim:  Determine the frequency and predictors of sleep disorders in boys with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). Method:  Cross-sectional study by postal questionnaire. Sleep disturbances were assessed using the Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children (validated on 1157 healthy children). A total sleep score and six sleep disturbance factors representing the most common sleep disorders were computed. Potential associations between pathological scores and personal, medical and environmental factors were assessed. Results:  Sixteen of 63 boys (25.4%) had a pathological total sleep score compared with 3% in the general population. The most prevalent sleep disorders were disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep (DIMS) 29.7%, sleep-related breathing disorders 15.6% and sleep hyperhydrosis 14.3%. On multivariate analysis, pathological total sleep scores were associated with the need to be moved by a carer (OR = 9.4; 95%CI: 2.2-40.7; p = 0.003) and being the child of a single-parent family (OR = 7.2; 95%CI: 1.5-35.1; p = 0.015) and DIMS with the need to be moved by a carer (OR = 18.0; 95%CI: 2.9-110.6; p = 0.002), steroid treatment (OR = 7.7; 95%CI: 1.4-44.0; p = 0.021) and being the child of a single-parent family (OR = 7.0; 95%CI: 1.3-38.4; p = 0.025). Conclusion:  Sleep disturbances are frequent in boys with DMD and are strongly associated with immobility. Sleep should be systematically assessed in DMD to implement appropriate interventions.

Immunological abnormalities of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and related disorders in patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The immunoloical profile of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and chronic lymphadenopathy syndrome (CLAS) in 15 and 11 Brazilian patients, respectively, was studied. The AIDS patients showed reduced percentage of total T (CD3) and T-helper-inducer (CD4) lymphocytes, relative increase in numbers of T-suppressor-cytotoxic (CD8) cells and a marked inversion of T-helper-inducer/suppressor-cytotoxic (CD4/CD8) ratio. Lymphoproliferative responses to PHA, ConA, PPD and PWM were diminished. Hypergamaglobulinemia and high levels of circulating immune complexes were also found. The CLAS patients also showed important immunological alterations, but not so intense as those with AIDS. These data seems to be similar to those observed in other parts of the world.

Prise en charge des troubles oculomoteurs après effraction iatrogène de l'orbite au cours d'interventions sinusiennes endoscopiques [Management of motility disorders secondary to iatrogenic orbital fracture during endoscopic sinus surgery.]

PURPOSE: Orbital wall fracture may occur during endoscopic sinus surgery, resulting in oculomotor disorders. We report the management of four cases presenting with this surgical complication. METHODS: A non-comparative observational retrospective study was carried out on four patients presenting with diplopia after endoscopic ethmoidal sinus surgery. All patients underwent full ophthalmologic and orthoptic examination as well as orbital imaging. RESULTS: All four patients presented with diplopia secondary to a medial rectus lesion confirmed by orbital imaging. A large horizontal deviation as well as limitation of adduction was present in all cases. Surgical management consisted of conventional recession-resection procedures in three cases and muscle transposition in one patient. A useful field of binocular single vision was restored in two of the four patients. CONCLUSION: Orbital injury may occur during endoscopic sinus surgery and cause diplopia, usually secondary to medial rectus involvement due to the proximity of this muscle to the lamina papyracea of the ethmoid bone. Surgical management is based on orbital imaging, duration of the lesion, evaluation of anterior segment vasculature, results of forced duction testing and intraoperative findings. In most cases, treatment is aimed at the symptoms rather than the cause, and the functional prognosis remains guarded.

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

Influence of local environmental olfactory cues on place learning in rats

The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of local environmental olfactory cues on place learning in rats. We developed a new experimental design allowing the comparison of the use of local olfactory and visual cues in spatial and discrimination learning. We compared the effect of both types of cues on the discrimination of a single food source in an open-field arena. The goal was either in a fixed or in a variable location, and could be indicated by local olfactory and/or visual cues. The local cues enhanced the discrimination of the goal dish, whether it was in a fixed or in a variable location. However, we did not observe any overshadowing of the spatial information by the local olfactory or visual cue. Rats relied primarily on distant visuospatial information to locate the goal, neglecting local information when it was in conflict with the spatial information.

Troubles de l'humeur et VIH: épidémiologie, clinique et prise en charge thérapeutique [Mood disorders in HIV patients: a challenge for liaison psychiatry consultation].

Mood disorders represent the most prevalent psychiatric condition in patients infected by HIV virus. Screening and treatment of depression as well as the evaluation of the risk suicide is of the utmost importance. When psychopharmacological treatment is required, interaction with antiretroviral treatment must be carefully considered. More generally a close collaboration between the physician and the psychiatrist is recommended.