896 resultados para Law of Propagation of Uncertainty
Resumo:
What if you could check out of your world, and enter a place where the social environment was different, where real world laws didn't apply, and where the political system could be anything you wanted it to be? What if you could socialize there with family and friends, build your own palace, go skiing, and even hold down a job there? And what if there wasn't one alternate world, there were hundreds, and what if millions of people checked out of Earth and went there every day? Virtual worlds - online worlds where millions of people come to interact, play, and socialize - are a new type of social order. In this Article, we examine the implications of virtual worlds for our understanding of law, and demonstrate how law affects the interests of those within the world. After providing an extensive primer on virtual worlds, including their history and function, we examine two fundamental issues in detail. First, we focus on property, and ask whether it is possible to say that virtual world users have real world property interests in virtual objects. Adopting economic accounts that demonstrate the real world value of these objects and the exchange mechanisms for trading these objects, we show that, descriptively, these types of objects are indistinguishable from real world property interests. Further, the normative justifications for property interests in the real world apply - sometimes more strongly - in the virtual worlds. Second, we discuss whether avatars have enforceable legal and moral rights. Avatars, the user-controlled entities that interact with virtual worlds, are a persistent extension of their human users, and users identify with them so closely that the human-avatar being can be thought of as a cyborg. We examine the issue of cyborg rights within virtual worlds and whether they may have real world significance. The issues of virtual property and avatar rights constitute legal challenges for our online future. Though virtual worlds may be games now, they are rapidly becoming as significant as real-world places where people interact, shop, sell, and work. As society and law begin to develop within virtual worlds, we need to have a better understanding of the interaction of the laws of the virtual worlds with the law of this world.
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In this paper, we consider a passivity-based approach for the design of a control law of multiple ship-roll gyro-stabiliser units. We extend previous work on control of ship roll gyro-stabilisation by considering the problem within a nonlinear framework. In particular, we derive an energy-based model using the port-Hamiltonian theory and then design an active precession controller using passivity-based control interconnection and damping assignment. The design considers the possibility of having multiple gyro-stabiliser units, and the desired potential energy of the system (in closed loop) is chosen to behave like a barrier function, which allows us to enforce constraints on the precession angle of the gyros.
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We present a theoretical model describing a plasma-assisted growth of carbon nanofibers (CNFs), which involves two competing channels of carbon incorporation into stacked graphene sheets: via surface diffusion and through the bulk of the catalyst particle (on the top of the nanofiber), accounting for a range of ion- and radical-assisted processes on the catalyst surface. Using this model, it is found that at low surface temperatures, Ts, the CNF growth is indeed controlled by surface diffusion, thus quantifying the semiempirical conclusions of earlier experiments. On the other hand, both the surface and bulk diffusion channels provide a comparable supply of carbon atoms to the stacked graphene sheets at elevated synthesis temperatures. It is also shown that at low Ts, insufficient for effective catalytic precursor decomposition, the plasma ions play a key role in the production of carbon atoms on the catalyst surface. The model is used to compute the growth rates for the two extreme cases of thermal and plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition of CNFs. More importantly, these results quantify and explain a number of observations and semiempirical conclusions of earlier experiments.
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In this work we test the feasibility of a new calibration method for gel dosimetry. We examine, through Monte Carlo modelling, whether the inclusion of an organic plastic scintillator system at key points within the gel phantom would perturb the dose map. Such a system would remove the requirement for a separate calibration gel, removing many sources of uncertainty.
Resumo:
A recurring feature of modern practice is the stress placed on project professionals, with both debilitating effects on the people concerned and indirectly affecting project success. Cost estimation, for example, is an essential task for successful project management involving a high level of uncertainty. It is not surprising, therefore, that young cost estimators especially can become stressful at work due to a lack of experience and the heavy responsibilities involved. However, the concept of work stress and the associated underlying dimensions has not been clearly defined in extant studies in the construction management field. To redress this situation, an updated psychology perceived stress questionnaire (PSQ) , first developed by Levenstein et al (1993) and revised by Fliege et al (2005), is used to explore the dimensions of work stress with empirical evidence from the construction industry in China. With 145 reliable responses from young (less than 5 years’ experience) Chinese cost estimators, this study explores the internal dimensions of work stress, identifying four dimensions of tension, demands, lack of joy and worries. It is suggested that this four-dimensional structure may also be applicable in a more general context.
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Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making
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Through an examination of Wallace v Kam, this article considers and evaluates the law of causation in the specific context of a medical practitioner’s duty to provide information to patients concerning material risks of treatment. To supply a contextual background for the analysis which follows, Part II summarises the basic principles of causation law, while Part III provides an overview of the case and the reasoning adopted in the decisions at first instance and on appeal. With particular emphasis upon the reasoning in the courts of appeal, Part IV then examines the implications of the case in the context of other jurisprudence in this field and, in so doing, provides a framework for a structured consideration of causation issues in future non-disclosure cases under the Australian civil liability legislation. As will become clear, Wallace was fundamentally decided on the basis of policy reasoning centred upon the purpose behind the legal duty violated. Although the plurality in Rogers v Whitaker rejected the utility of expressions such as ‘the patient’s right of self-determination’ in this context, some Australian jurisprudence may be thought to frame the practitioner’s duty to warn in terms of promoting a patient’s autonomy, or right to decide whether to submit to treatment proposed. Accordingly, the impact of Wallace upon the protection of this right, and the interrelation between it and the duty to warn’s purpose, is investigated. The analysis in Part IV also evaluates the courts’ reasoning in Wallace by questioning the extent to which Wallace’s approach to liability and causal connection in non-disclosure of risk cases: depends upon the nature and classification of the risk(s) in question; and can be reconciled with the way in which patients make decisions. Finally, Part V adopts a comparative approach by considering whether the same decision might be reached if Wallace was determined according to English law.
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Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, TinkerPlots. Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of uncertainty, although an understanding of chance concepts appeared limited. Predicting outcomes of 10 tosses reflected an intuitive notion of equiprobability, with little awareness of variation. Understanding the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability did not emerge until multiple outcomes and representations were generated with the software.
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Critical to the research of urban morphologists is the availability of historical records that document the urban transformation of the study area. However, thus far little work has been done towards an empirical approach to the validation of archival data in this field. Outlined in this paper, therefore, is a new methodology for validating the accuracy of archival records and mapping data, accrued through the process of urban morphological research, so as to establish a reliable platform from which analysis can proceed. The paper particularly addresses the problems of inaccuracies in existing curated historical information, as well as errors in archival research by student assistants, which together give rise to unacceptable levels of uncertainty in the documentation. The paper discusses the problems relating to the reliability of historical information, demonstrates the importance of data verification in urban morphological research, and proposes a rigorous method for objective testing of collected archival data through the use of qualitative data analysis software.
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We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
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Groundwater modelling studies rely on an accurate determination of inputs and outputs that make up the water balance. Often there is large uncertainty associated with estimates of recharge and unmetered groundwater use. This can translate to equivalent uncertainty in the forecasting of sustainable yields, impacts of extraction, and susceptibility of groundwater dependent ecosystems. In the case of Coal Seam Gas, it is important to characterise the temporal and special distribution of depressurisation in the reservoir and how this may or may not extend to the adjacent aquifers. A regional groundwater flow model has been developed by the Queensland Government to predict drawdown impacts due to Coal Seam Gas activities in the Surat basin. This groundwater model is undergoing continued refinement and there is currently scope to address some of the key areas of uncertainty including better quantification of groundwater recharge and unmetered groundwater extractions. Research is currently underway to improve the accuracy of estimates of both of these components of the groundwater balance in order to reduce uncertainty in predicted groundwater drawdowns due to CSG activities.
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The concept of energy gap(s) is useful for understanding the consequence of a small daily, weekly, or monthly positive energy balance and the inconspicuous shift in weight gain ultimately leading to overweight and obesity. Energy gap is a dynamic concept: an initial positive energy gap incurred via an increase in energy intake (or a decrease in physical activity) is not constant, may fade out with time if the initial conditions are maintained, and depends on the 'efficiency' with which the readjustment of the energy imbalance gap occurs with time. The metabolic response to an energy imbalance gap and the magnitude of the energy gap(s) can be estimated by at least two methods, i.e. i) assessment by longitudinal overfeeding studies, imposing (by design) an initial positive energy imbalance gap; ii) retrospective assessment based on epidemiological surveys, whereby the accumulated endogenous energy storage per unit of time is calculated from the change in body weight and body composition. In order to illustrate the difficulty of accurately assessing an energy gap we have used, as an illustrative example, a recent epidemiological study which tracked changes in total energy intake (estimated by gross food availability) and body weight over 3 decades in the US, combined with total energy expenditure prediction from body weight using doubly labelled water data. At the population level, the study attempted to assess the cause of the energy gap purported to be entirely due to increased food intake. Based on an estimate of change in energy intake judged to be more reliable (i.e. in the same study population) and together with calculations of simple energetic indices, our analysis suggests that conclusions about the fundamental causes of obesity development in a population (excess intake vs. low physical activity or both) is clouded by a high level of uncertainty.
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In this article, we present the detailed investigations on platinum related midgap state corresponding to E-c -0.52 eV probed by deep level transient spectroscopy. By irradiating the platinum doped samples with high-energy (1.1 MeV) gamma rays, we observed that the concentration of the midgap state increases and follows a square dependence with irradiation dose. However, the concentration of the acceptor corresponding to E-c -20.28 eV remained constant. Furthermore, from the studies on passivation by atomic hydrogen and thermal reactivation, we noticed that the E-c -0.52 eV level reappears in the samples annealed at high temperatures after hydrogenation. The interaction of platinum with various defects and the qualitative arguments based on the law of mass action suggest that the platinum related midgap defect might possibly correspond to the interstitial platinum-divacancy complex (V-Pt-V).
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Quinuclidine grafted cationic bile salts are forming salted hydrogels. An extensive investigation of the effect of the electrolyte and counterions on the gelation has been envisaged. The special interest of the quinuclidine grafted bile salt is due to its broader experimental range of gelation to study the effect of electrolyte. Rheological features of the hydrogels are typical of enthalpic networks exhibiting a scaling law of the elastic shear modulus with the concentration (scaling exponent 2.2) modeling cellular solids in which the bending modulus is the dominant parameter. The addition of monovalent salt (NaCl) favors the formation of gels in a first range (0.00117 g cm-3 (0.02 M) < TNaCl < 0.04675 g cm-3 (0.8 M)). At larger salt concentrations, the gels become more heterogeneous with nodal zones in the micron scale. Small-angle neutron scattering experiments have been used to characterize the rigid fibers (
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Quantifying the stiffness properties of soft tissues is essential for the diagnosis of many cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis. In these pathologies it is widely agreed that the arterial wall stiffness is an indicator of vulnerability. The present paper focuses on the carotid artery and proposes a new inversion methodology for deriving the stiffness properties of the wall from cine-MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) data. We address this problem by setting-up a cost function defined as the distance between the modeled pixel signals and the measured ones. Minimizing this cost function yields the unknown stiffness properties of both the arterial wall and the surrounding tissues. The sensitivity of the identified properties to various sources of uncertainty is studied. Validation of the method is performed on a rubber phantom. The elastic modulus identified using the developed methodology lies within a mean error of 9.6%. It is then applied to two young healthy subjects as a proof of practical feasibility, with identified values of 625 kPa and 587 kPa for one of the carotid of each subject.