Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of the 10% electric vehicles target of the single electricity market

In late 2008, the Government of the Republic of Ireland set a specific target that 10% of all vehicles in its transport fleet be powered by electricity by 2020 in order to meet European Union renewable energy targets and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. International there are similar targets. This is a considerable challenge as in 2009, transport accounted for 29% of non-emissions trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions, 32% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, 21% of total greenhouse gas emissions and approximately 50% of energy-related non-emission trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper the impacts of 10% electric vehicle charging on the single wholesale electricity market for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is examined. The energy consumed and the total carbon dioxide emissions generated under different charging scenarios is quantified and the results of the charging scenarios are compared to identify the best implementation strategy.

An Analysis of the Effect of Electric Vehicle Charging on the Operation of the Single Electricity Market

To meet European Union renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets the Irish government set a target in 2008 that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet be powered by electricity by 2020. Similar electric vehicle targets have been introduced in other countries. However, reducing energy consumption and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions in transport is a considerable challenge due to heavy reliance on fossil fuels. In fact, transport in the Republic of Ireland in 2009 accounted for 29% of non-emissions trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions, 32% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, 21% of total greenhouse gas emissions and approximately 50% of energy-related non-emission trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper the effect of electric vehicle charging on the operation of the single wholesale electricity market for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is analysed. The energy consumed, greenhouse gas emissions generated and changes to the wholesale price of electricity under peak and off-peak charging scenarios are quantified and discussed. Results from the study show that off-peak charging is more beneficial than peak charging.

Transmission-Line Class-E Power Amplifier With Extended Maximum Operating Frequency

A novel Class-E power amplifier (PA) topology with transmission-line load network is presented in this brief. When compared with the classic Class-E topology, the new circuit can increase the maximum operating frequency up to 50% higher without trading the other Class-E figures of merit. Neither quarterwave line/massive radio-frequency choke for collector/drain biasing nor additional fundamental-frequency output matching circuit are needed in the proposed PA, thus resulting in a compact design. Closed-form formulations are derived and verified by simulations with practical design limitations carefully taken into consideration and good agreement achieved.

The WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism – An Effective Surveillance Mechanism for Aid for Trade?

There has always been a question mark over how best to integrate developing countries into the world trading system and traditionally the WTO has used special and differential treatment (S&D) to do so. However, since 1996 the WTO has been involved with the Aid for Trade (AfT) initiative typically co-ordinated by the OECD and UN. This article firstly outlines the background to AfT since 1996 under the numerous agencies working in the area, highlighting how importance has always been placed on the monitoring and effectiveness of the process. It then turns to assessing the various methods currently used and the proposal of the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM) as a potential monitoring tool of AfT.

Interlocking directorates and conflicts of interest: The Rotterdamsche Bankvereeniging, Müller & Co. and the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s

How can interlocking directorates cause financial instability for universal banks? A detailed history of the Rotterdamsche Bankvereeninging in the 1920s answers this question in a case study. This large commercial bank adopted a new German-style universal banking business model from the early 1910s, sharing directors with the firms it financed as a means of controlling its interests. Then, in 1924, it required assistance from the Dutch state in order to survive a bank run brought on by public concerns over its close ties with Müller & Co., a trading conglomerate that suffered badly in the economic downturn of the early 1920s. Using a new narrative history combined with an interpretive model, this article shows how the interlocking directorates between the bank and this major client, and in particular the direction of influence of these interlocks, resulted in a conflict of interest that could not be easily overcome.

High-efficiency low-voltage-stress Class-EF PA with extended maximum operating frequency

The Class-EF power amplifier (PA) introduced recently has a peak switch voltage much lower than the well-known Class-E PA. However, the value of the transistor output capacitance at high frequencies is typically larger than the required Class-EF optimum shunt capacitance. As a result, softswitching operation that minimizes power dissipation during OFF-to-ON transient cannot be achieved at high frequencies. A novel Class-EF topology with transmission-line load network proposed in this paper allows the PA to operate at much higher frequencies without trading the other figures of merit. Closed-form formulations are derived to simultaneously satisfy the Class-EF impedances requirement at fundamental frequency, all even harmonics, and the first two odd harmonics as well as to provide matching to 50O load. © 2011 Institut fur Mikrowellen.

Psychological management of intractable seizures in an adolescent with a learning disability

Psychological interventions aimed at seizure management are described with a 14-year-old buy with a learning disability and intractable epilepsy. Baseline records suggested that a majority of tonic seizures and 'drop attacks' were associated with going off to sleep and by environmental 'startles'. Psychological formulation implicated sudden changes in arousal levels as an underlying mechanism of action. Cognitive-behavioural countermeasures were employed to alter arousal levels and processes in different ways in different 'at-risk' situations. A multiple baseline design was used to control for non-specific effects of interventions on non-targeted seizures. Results suggested significant declines in the number of sleep onset and startle-response seizures were attained by these methods. Gains were maintained at 2-month follow-up. (C) 1999 BEA Trading Ltd.

The Multiple Facets of ETF Investing: A World-Wide Analysis

The global ETF industry provides more complicated investment vehicles than low-cost index trackers. Instead, we find that the real investments of ETFs that do not fully replicate their benchmarks may deviate from their benchmarks to leverage informational advantages (which leads to a surprising stock-selection ability), to benefit from the securities lending market, to support ETF-affiliated banks’ stock prices, and to help affiliated OEFs through cross-trading. These effects are more prevalent in ETFs domiciled in Europe. Market awareness of such additional risk is reflected in ETF outflows. These results have important normative implications for consumer protection and financial stability.

UK: general - UK enforcement.

Reports that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) began operations in "shadow form" on October 1, 2013 prior to it taking over the mandates of the Competition Commission and the Office of Fair Trading in April 2014. Outlines the CMA's draft guidance, issued for consultation on September 17, 2013, on prosecutions for the cartel offence. Presents links to other CMA communications.

Rigorous Specification and Low-Latency Implementation of Technical Market Indicators

Technical market indicators are tools used by technical an- alysts to understand trends in trading markets. Technical (market) indicators are often calculated in real-time, as trading progresses. This paper presents a mathematically- founded framework for calculating technical indicators. Our framework consists of a domain specific language for the un- ambiguous specification of technical indicators, and a run- time system based on Click, for computing the indicators. We argue that our solution enhances the ease of program- ming due to aligning our domain-specific language to the mathematical description of technical indicators, and that it enables executing programs in kernel space for decreased latency, without exposing the system to users’ programming errors.

A pilot study to evaluate aflatoxin exposure in a rural Ugandan population

Objectives: The fungal metabolite aflatoxin is a common contaminant of foodstuffs, especially when stored in damp conditions. In humans, high levels can result in acute hepatic necrosis and death, while chronic exposure is carcinogenic. We conducted a pilot study nested within an existing population cohort (the General Population Cohort), to assess exposure to aflatoxin, among people living in rural south-western Uganda. Methods: Sera from 100 adults and 96 children under 3 years of age (85 male, 111 female) were tested for aflatoxin-albumin adduct (AF-alb), using an ELISA assay. Socio-demographic and dietary data were obtained for all participants; HIV serostatus was available for 90 adults and liver function tests (LFTs) for 99. Results: Every adult and all but four children had detectable AF-alb adduct, including five babies reported to be exclusively breastfed. Levels ranged from 0 to 237.7 pg/mg albumin and did not differ significantly between men and women, by age or by HIV serostatus; 25% had levels above 15.1 pg/mg albumin. There was evidence of heterogeneity between villages (P = 0.003); those closest to trading centres had higher levels. Adults who consumed more Matooke (bananas) had lower levels of AF-alb adduct (P = 0.02) than adults who did not, possibly because their diet contained fewer aflatoxin-contaminated foods such as posho (made from maize). Children who consumed soya, which is not grown locally, had levels of AF-alb adduct that were almost twice as high as those who did not eat soya (P = 0.04). Conclusions: Exposure to aflatoxin is ubiquitous among the rural Ugandans studied, with a significant number of people having relatively high levels. Sources of exposure need to be better understood to instigate practical and sustainable interventions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.