Policy learning in Europe : social policy and labour market reforms in 11 countries

This report compares policy learning processes in 11 European countries. Based on the country reports that were produced by the national teams of the INSPIRES project, this paper develops an argument that connects problem pressure and politicization to learning in different labor market innovations. In short, we argue that learning efforts are most likely to impact on policy change if there is a certain problem pressure that clearly necessitates political action. On the other hand, if problem pressure is very low, or so high that governments need to react immediately, chances are low that learning impacts on policy change. The second part of our argument contends that learning impacts on policy change especially if a problem is not very politicized, i.e. there are no main conflicts concerning a reform, because then, solutions are wound up in the search for a compromise. Our results confirm our first hypothesis regarding the connection between problem pressure and policy learning. Governments learn indeed up to a certain degree of problem pressure. However, once political action becomes really urgent, i.e. in anti-crisis policies, there is no time and room for learning. On the other hand, learning occurred independently from the politicization of problem. In fact, in countries that have a consensual political system, learning occurred before the decision on a reform, whereas in majoritarian systems, learning happened after the adoption of a policy during the process of implementation.

Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries

Based on contingent claims analysis, CCA, this paper tries to estimate the systemic risk build-up in the European Economic and Monetary Union, EMU countries using a market based measure distance-to-default, DtD. It analyzes the individual and aggregated series for a comprehensive set of banks in each eurozone country over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. Given the structural differences in financial sector and banking regulations at national level, the indices provide a useful indicator for monitoring country specific banking vulnerability and stress. We find that average DtD indicators are intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk indicators. The underlying trend, fluctuations and correlations among indices help us analyze the interdependence while cross-sectional differences in DtD prior to crisis suggest banking sector fragility in peripheral EMU countries.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

The role of the tourism sector in economic development. Lessons from the Spanish experience

Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the global economy and is considered an efficient tool with which to promote economic growth. The case of Spain¿s economy is well known in this respect; in fact, widespread consensus exists on the part played by tourism in enhancing the industrialisation process in Spain and the part played by foreign currency receipts from tourism in financing the imports of capital goods, which made the expansion of manufacturing possible. This paper aims to assess the real role of foreign currency receipts from tourism in Spain¿s economy from 1960 to the present. The results of Spain¿s experience may well help to guide policy decisions in developing countries in similar circumstances.

The role of the tourism sector in economic development. Lessons from the Spanish experience

Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the global economy and is considered an efficient tool with which to promote economic growth. The case of Spain¿s economy is well known in this respect; in fact, widespread consensus exists on the part played by tourism in enhancing the industrialisation process in Spain and the part played by foreign currency receipts from tourism in financing the imports of capital goods, which made the expansion of manufacturing possible. This paper aims to assess the real role of foreign currency receipts from tourism in Spain¿s economy from 1960 to the present. The results of Spain¿s experience may well help to guide policy decisions in developing countries in similar circumstances.

Health of Immigrants in European countries

The health of older immigrants can have important consequences for needed social support and demands placed on health systems. This paper examines health differences between immigrants and the nativeborn populations aged 50 years and older in 11 European countries. We examine differences in functional ability, disability, disease presence and behavioral risk factors, for immigrants and non-immigrants using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) database. Among the 11 European countries, migrants generally have worse health than the native population. In these countries, there is a little evidence of the “healthy migrant” at ages 50 years and over. In general, it appears that growing numbers of immigrants may portend more health problems in the population in subsequent years.

Wages and productivity: the role of labour market institutions in OECD countries

In the context of a monetary union, to keep a territorial equilibrium in terms of economic activity and employment, the relationship between real wages and productivity is crucial. In this paper, empirical evidence about the response of wages to productivity is obtained for 20 OECD countries and the role of labour market institutions to explain differences in this response is analysed.

Real unit labour costs in Eurozone countries: drivers and clusters

We examine the trajectories of the real unit labour costs (RULCs) in a selection of Eurozone economies. Strong asymmetries in the convergence process of the RULCs and its components —real wages, capital intensity, and technology— are uncovered through decomposition and cluster analyses. In the last three decades, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) succeeded in reducing their RULCs by more than their northern partners. With the exception of Ireland, however, technological progress was weak; it was through capital intensification that periphery economies gained efficiency and competitiveness. Cluster heterogeneity, and lack of robustness in cluster composition, is a reflection of the difficulties in achieving real convergence and, by extension, nominal convergence. We conclude by outlining technology as the key convergence factor, and call for a renewed attention to real convergence indicators to strengthen the process of European integration.

Identification of the Emerging Issues in Recycled Fiber Processing

The objectives of this research work “Identification of the Emerging Issues in Recycled Fiber processing” are discovering of emerging research issues and presenting of new approaches to identify promising research themes in recovered paper application and production. The projected approach consists of identifying technological problems often encountered in wastepaper preparation processes and also improving the quality of recovered paper and increasing its proportion in the composition of paper and board. The source of information for the problem retrieval is scientific publications in which waste paper application and production were discussed. The study has exploited several research methods to understand the changes related to utilization of recovered paper. The all assembled data was carefully studied and categorized by applying software called RefViz and CiteSpace. Suggestions were made on the various classes of these problems that need further investigation in order to propose an emerging research trends in recovered paper.

Social competence and loneliness during the school years - Issues in assessment, interrelations and intergenerational transmission

Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan kouluikäisten lasten ja nuorten sosiaalisen kompetenssin ja yksinäisyyden mittaamista, yhteyksiä ja periytyvyyttä vanhemmilta heidän lapsilleen. Alakouluikäisten lasten tutkimusaineisto (n=985) koostuu lapsilta itseltään, heidän luokkatovereiltaan, opettajiltaan ja vanhemmiltaan vuosina 2000 - 2004 osana Merkitystä etsimässä – tutkimusprojektia (M. Vauras) kerätystä aineistosta. Mukana on itse-, toveri-, opettaja- ja vanhempien arviot lasten sosiaalisesta kompetenssista, seuranta-aineisto lasten yksinäisyydestä, opettajien arviot lasten motivationaalisesta orientaatiosta, standardoiduin testisarjoin arvioidut akateemiset taidot sekä lasten äitien ja isien arviot omasta yksinäisyydestään ja koetusta kyvykkyydestään toimia vanhempana. Yläkouluikäisten nuorten (n=386) aineisto koostuu vuosina 2006 – 2007 osana Sosioemotionaalinen oppiminen ja hyvinvointi yläkouluyhteisössä (P. M. Niemi) kerätystä nuorten yksinäisyyden, sosiaalisen ahdistuneisuuden ja sosiaalisen fobian seuranta-aineistosta. Mitattavuutta (päätavoite 1) tutkittiin erityisesti monitahoarviointien rakenteiden yhtenäisyyksiä, subjektiivisten arvioiden ajallista pysyvyyttä sekä mittareiden validiteettia ja reliabiliteettia testaamalla. Sosiaalisen kompetenssin ja yksinäisyyden keskinäisten yhteyksien lisäksi tarkasteltiin näiden yhteyttä alakoululaisten oppimiseen sekä yläkou¬lulaisten psykososiaaliseen hyvinvointiin (päätavoite 2). Kolmantena päätavoitteena oli selvittää yksinäisyyden mahdollista periytymistä vanhemmilta lapsille. Osana ensimmäistä päätavoitetta kehitettiin Monitahoarviointi sosiaalisesta kompetenssista (MASK) -arviointimenetelmä (artikkeli 1). Konfirmatorisen faktorianalyysin tulosten perusteella nelifaktorinen rakenne (prososiaalisuus sisältäen yhteistyötaidot ja empatiakyvyn sekä antisosiaalisuus sisältäen impulsiivisuuden ja häiritsevyyden) sopi sekä lasten itsensä, heidän luokkatovereidensa, opettajiensa että vanhempiensa tekemiin arviointeihin. Eri tahojen arviointien väliset korrelaatiot olivat tilastollisesti merkitseviä, joskin suhteellisen matalia, ts. eri tahojen näkökulmat lapsen sosiaalisesta kompetenssista ovat toisistaan eriäviä. Täten eri arvioitsijatahojen käyttäminen on kokonaisuuden tutkimisen kannalta tärkeää. Toisena mittaamiseen liittyvänä tavoitteena oli validoida Hozan, Bukowskin ja Beeryn (2000) sosiaalisen ja emotionaalisen yksinäisyyden mittari suomalaisille lapsille (artikkeli 3) ja nuorille (artikkeli 4) soveltuvaksi sekä tutkia, ovatko lasten ja nuorten arviot omasta yksinäisyydestään ajallisesti pysyviä. Alakoululaisten lasten osalta yksinäisyys, erityisesti sosiaalinen yksinäisyys osoittautui suhteellisen pysyväksi, mutta vahvistui entisestään yläkouluikäisten nuorten aineistoa tarkasteltaessa. Huomionarvoista sekä ala- että yläkoululaisten aineistoissa oli poikien kokema vahva emotionaalinen yksinäisyys. Molempien mittareiden osalta sekä validiteetti että reliabiliteetti todettiin hyväksyttäväksi ja niitä voidaan suositella lasten ja nuorten sosiaalisen kompetenssin ja yksinäisyyden arviointimenetelmiksi. Toisena päätavoitteena oli rakenneyhtälömallinnuksen keinoin tarkastella sosiaalisen kompetenssin ja yksinäisyyden yhteyksiä sekä keskenään (artikkelit 2 ja 3) että suhteessa lasten oppimiseen (artikkeli 2) ja nuorten psykososiaaliseen hyvinvointiin (artikkeli 4). Alakouluikäisten lasten osalta sosiaalinen kompetenssi oli yhteydessä pait¬si yksinäisyyteen myös opettajien oppilaistaan tekemiin motivationaalisen orientaation arvioihin sekä standardoiduin testien arvioituihin akateemisiin taitoihin. Yläkouluikäisten nuorten osalta yksinäisyys oli yhteydessä sosiaaliseen ahdistuneisuuteen ja sosiaaliseen fobiaan. Täten sosiaalisen kompetenssin voidaan katsoa olevan koululaisten hyvinvointia ja oppimista vahvistava, ja toisaalta yksinäisyyden nuorten psykososiaalista hyvinvointia heikentävä tekijä. Viimeisenä päätavoitteena mallinnettiin yksinäisyyden mahdollista periytyvyyttä. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa periytyvyyttä tarkasteltiin koko perheen sisällä, vanhempien tai lasten sukupuolta erottelematta (artikkeli 2). Tässä rakenneyhtälömallissa vanhempien kokema yksinäisyys ennusti heikompaa kyvykkyydentunnetta vanhemmuudesta, joka edelleen ennusti lapsen heikompaa toveriarvioitua sosiaalista kompetenssia koulussa ja tätä kautta vahvempaa yksinäisyyden kokemusta. Toisessa mallissa eroteltiin äitien ja isien sekä tyttöjen ja poikien aineistot, jotta periytyvyyttä voitiin tarkastella äiti-tytär, äiti-poika, isä-tytär ja isä-poika dyadisuhteissa. Rakenneyhtälömallinnuksen tulosten perusteella sekä äitien että isien kokema yksinäisyys ennusti