Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

Her Confession. The Great Hit of Kessler`s Second Ave. Theatre from Jos. Lateiner`s Play

H.Altman

Allied postage stamps of the Great War and after : 1914-1923 : a descriptive catalogue and guide for collectors : with prices at which the stamps may be obtained from the publisher

Field's war stamp catalogue

Great Britain, Palestine and the Jews : Jewry's celebration of its national charter

Digitalisiert in Kooperation mit dem YIVO Institute for Jewish Research am Center for Jewish History, NY

The Congo Slave State : a protest against the new African slavery ; and an appeal to the public of Great Britain, of the United States, and of the Continent of Europe

by Edmund D. Morel

Mario Lanza als Caruso, Rollenbild, Kniestück, in: Joe Pasternak: The great Caruso

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F10889

Mario Lanza als Caruso, Rollenbild, in: Joe Pasternak: The great Caruso

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F10890

Great leaders of Hebrew history from Manasseh to John the Baptist

by Henry Thatcher Fowler

The Jews of the Empire and the Great War : by Michael Adler

Digitalisiert in Kooperation mit dem YIVO Institute for Jewish Research am Center for Jewish History, NY

The installation sermon of the very Rev. Dr. Joseph Herman Hertz : Chief rabbi of the United Hebrew Congregations of the British Empire ; Monday, April 14th, 5673-1913 ; at the Great Synagogue London

Digitalisiert in Kooperation mit dem YIVO Institute for Jewish Research am Center for Jewish History, NY

Members of "The Samoan Expeditionary Force" who made the supreme sacrifice in the Great War, 1914-1918

[by Stephen John Smith, late 5th (Wellington) Regiment, secretary Samoa administration in military occupation, 1915-1918]

Great Barrier Reef coral element/Ca and stable isotope data and U-Th ages from IODP Expedition 325

Tropical south-western Pacific temperatures are of vital importance to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), but the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the growth of the GBR since the Last Glacial Maximum remains largely unknown. Here we present records of Sr/Ca and d18O for Last Glacial Maximum and deglacial corals that show a considerably steeper meridional SST gradient than the present day in the central GBR. We find a 1-2 °C larger temperature decrease between 17° and 20°S about 20,000 to 13,000 years ago. The result is best explained by the northward expansion of cooler subtropical waters due to a weakening of the South Pacific gyre and East Australian Current. Our findings indicate that the GBR experienced substantial meridional temperature change during the last deglaciation, and serve to explain anomalous deglacial drying of northeastern Australia. Overall, the GBR developed through significant SST change and may be more resilient than previously thought.