Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Olympic social responsibility : a challenge for the future

Social responsibility, especially in the fields of education, society and peace, is one of the cornerstones of the olympic ideal and strategic vision (contribute to building a better world through sport). The article reviews the literature on organizational social responsibility (OSR) and the relationship between sport/olympism and OSR in order to examine the conditions governing the implementation and success of the International Olympic Committee's strategic vision. Several ways in which the IOC could promote a more ambitious and better-integrated social strategy: revise its performance model, notably evaluate and present in a social responsibility report; promote the adoption of OSR initiatives and strategies within the Olympic System from the bottom-up, rather than from the top-down; share best practices in the different countries for promoting and developing "sport for all"; create a World Agency for Development through Sport, or partnering and funding the international platform on sport and development; creating a World Agency for the International Governance of Sport. Two possible scenarios for the future of Olympic responsibility are finally discussed: strategy of "small steps" and a more ambitious local and global social strategy through sport and olympism.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Current and future trens in the quality control of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaticals : impacts on Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

[Summary] 2. Roles of quality control in the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries. - 2.1. Pharmaceutical industry. - 2.2. Biopharmaceutical industry. - 2.3. Policy and regulatory. - 2.3.1. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). - 2.3.2. The European Medicine Agency (EMEA). - 2.3.3. The Japanese Ministry of Work, Labor and Welfare (MHLW). - 2.3.4. The Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products (Swissmedic). - 2.3.5. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH). - - 3. Types of testing. - 3.1. Microbiological purity tests. - 3.2. Physiochemical tests. - 3.3. Critical to quality steps. - 3.3.1. API starting materials and excipients. - 3.3.2. Intermediates. - 3.3.3. APIs (drug substances) and final drug product. - 3.3.4. Primary and secondary packaging materials fro drug products. - - 4. Manufacturing cost and quality control. - 4.1.1. Pharmaceutical manufacturing cost breakdown. - 4.1.2. Biopharmaceutical manufacturing cost breakdown. - 4.2. Batch failure / rejection / rework / recalls. - - 5. Future trends in the quality control of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals. - 5.1. Rapid and real time testing. - 5.1.1. Physio-chemicals testing. - 5.1.2. Rapid microbiology methods

Emerging bacterial pathogens: the past and beyond.

Since the 1950s, medical communities have been facing with emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, and emerging pathogens are now considered to be a major microbiologic public health threat. In this review, we focus on bacterial emerging diseases and explore factors involved in their emergence as well as future challenges. We identified 26 major emerging and reemerging infectious diseases of bacterial origin; most of them originated either from an animal and are considered to be zoonoses or from water sources. Major contributing factors in the emergence of these bacterial infections are: (1) development of new diagnostic tools, such as improvements in culture methods, development of molecular techniques and implementation of mass spectrometry in microbiology; (2) increase in human exposure to bacterial pathogens as a result of sociodemographic and environmental changes; and (3) emergence of more virulent bacterial strains and opportunistic infections, especially affecting immunocompromised populations. A precise definition of their implications in human disease is challenging and requires the comprehensive integration of microbiological, clinical and epidemiologic aspects as well as the use of experimental models. It is now urgent to allocate financial resources to gather international data to provide a better understanding of the clinical relevance of these waterborne and zoonotic emerging diseases.

Analyse de réseau piéton et gestion scolaire: sinuosité, centricité et transport optimal régularisé

Que ce soit d'un point de vue, urbanistique, social, ou encore de la gouvernance, l'évolution des villes est un défi majeur de nos sociétés contemporaines. En offrant la possibilité d'analyser des configurations spatiales et sociales existantes ou en tentant de simuler celles à venir, les systèmes d'information géographique sont devenus incontournables dans la gestion et dans la planification urbaine. En cinq ans la population de la ville de Lausanne est passée de 134'700 à 140'570 habitants, alors que les effectifs de l'école publique ont crû de 12'200 à 13'500 élèves. Cet accroissement démographique associé à un vaste processus d'harmonisation de la scolarité obligatoire en Suisse ont amené le Service des écoles à mettre en place et à développer en collaboration avec l'université de Lausanne des solutions SIG à même de répondre à différentes problématiques spatiales. Établies en 1989, les limites des établissements scolaires (bassins de recrutement) ont dû être redéfinies afin de les réadapter aux réalités d'un paysage urbain et politique en pleine mutation. Dans un contexte de mobilité et de durabilité, un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics basé sur la distance domicile-école et sur l'âge des écoliers, a été conçu. La réalisation de ces projets a nécessité la construction de bases de données géographiques ainsi que l'élaboration de nouvelles méthodes d'analyses exposées dans ce travail. Cette thèse s'est ainsi faite selon une dialectique permanente entre recherches théoriques et nécessités pratiques. La première partie de ce travail porte sur l'analyse du réseau piéton de la ville. La morphologie du réseau est investiguée au travers d'approches multi-échelles du concept de centralité. La première conception, nommée sinuo-centralité ("straightness centrality"), stipule qu'être central c'est être relié aux autres en ligne droite. La deuxième, sans doute plus intuitive, est intitulée centricité ("closeness centrality") et exprime le fait qu'être central c'est être proche des autres (fig. 1, II). Les méthodes développées ont pour but d'évaluer la connectivité et la marchabilité du réseau, tout en suggérant de possibles améliorations (création de raccourcis piétons). Le troisième et dernier volet théorique expose et développe un algorithme de transport optimal régularisé. En minimisant la distance domicile-école et en respectant la taille des écoles, l'algorithme permet de réaliser des scénarios d'enclassement. L'implémentation des multiplicateurs de Lagrange offre une visualisation du "coût spatial" des infrastructures scolaires et des lieux de résidence des écoliers. La deuxième partie de cette thèse retrace les aspects principaux de trois projets réalisés dans le cadre de la gestion scolaire. À savoir : la conception d'un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics, la redéfinition de la carte scolaire, ou encore la simulation des flux d'élèves se rendant à l'école à pied. *** May it be from an urbanistic, a social or from a governance point of view, the evolution of cities is a major challenge in our contemporary societies. By giving the opportunity to analyse spatial and social configurations or attempting to simulate future ones, geographic information systems cannot be overlooked in urban planning and management. In five years, the population of the city of Lausanne has grown from 134'700 to 140'570 inhabitants while the numbers in public schools have increased from 12'200 to 13'500 students. Associated to a considerable harmonisation process of compulsory schooling in Switzerland, this demographic rise has driven schooling services, in collaboration with the University of Lausanne, to set up and develop GIS capable of tackling various spatial issues. Established in 1989, the school districts had to be altered so that they might fit the reality of a continuously changing urban and political landscape. In a context of mobility and durability, an attribution system for public transport subventions based on the distance between residence and school and on the age of the students was designed. The implementation of these projects required the built of geographical databases as well as the elaboration of new analysis methods exposed in this thesis. The first part of this work focuses on the analysis of the city's pedestrian network. Its morphology is investigated through multi-scale approaches of the concept of centrality. The first conception, named the straightness centrality, stipulates that being central is being connected to the others in a straight line. The second, undoubtedly more intuitive, is called closeness centrality and expresses the fact that being central is being close to the others. The goal of the methods developed is to evaluate the connectivity and walkability of the network along with suggesting possible improvements (creation of pedestrian shortcuts).The third and final theoretical section exposes and develops an algorithm of regularised optimal transport. By minimising home to school distances and by respecting school capacity, the algorithm enables the production of student allocation scheme. The implementation of the Lagrange multipliers offers a visualisation of the spatial cost associated to the schooling infrastructures and to the student home locations. The second part of this thesis recounts the principal aspects of three projects fulfilled in the context of school management. It focuses namely on the built of an attribution system for public transport subventions, a school redistricting process and on simulating student pedestrian flows.

The use of future-oriented knowledge in regional innovation processes: Research on knowledge generation, transfer and conversion

The importance of the regional level in research has risen in the last few decades and a vast literature in the fields of, for instance, evolutionary and institutional economics, network theories, innovations and learning systems, as well as sociology, has focused on regional level questions. Recently the policy makers and regional actors have also began to pay increasing attention to the knowledge economy and its needs, in general, and the connectivity and support structures of regional clusters in particular. Nowadays knowledge is generally considered as the most important source of competitive advantage, but even the most specialised forms of knowledge are becoming a short-lived resource for example due to the accelerating pace of technological change. This emphasizes the need of foresight activities in national, regional and organizational levels and the integration of foresight and innovation activities. In regional setting this development sets great challenges especially in those regions having no university and thus usually very limited resources for research activities. Also the research problem of this dissertation is related to the need to better incorporate the information produced by foresight process to facilitate and to be used in regional practice-based innovation processes. This dissertation is a constructive case study the case being Lahti region and a network facilitating innovation policy adopted in that region. Dissertation consists of a summary and five articles and during the research process a construct or a conceptual model for solving this real life problem has been developed. It is also being implemented as part of the network facilitating innovation policy in the Lahti region.

Maasulkuvirtojen kehitys ja kompensointi Haminan Energia Oy:n keskijänniteverkossa

Tässä työssä tutkitaan maasulkuvirtoja sekä niiden vaikutusta ja kehitystä Haminan Ener-gia Oy:n keskijänniteverkossa. Lisäksi tarkastellaan erilaisia mahdollisuuksia rajoittaa maasulkuvirtojen suuruuksia. Tutkimusalueena käytetään koko Haminan Energia Oy:n keskijänniteverkkoaluetta. Maasulkuvirtojen suuruuden ja vaikutusten tutkimiseksi suori-tetaan erilaisin lähtökriteerein maasulkujen vikavirtalaskennat verkkotietojärjestelmällä. Verkon kehittymisen analysoimiseksi selvitetään sen ikätietoja, kaava-alueiden muutok-sia sekä päämuuntaja- ja varasyöttökapasiteetteja. Analyysien pohjalta saatujen tulosten perusteella työssä laaditaan arvio maasulkuvirtojen kehityksestä tulevaisuudessa. Maasulkuvirtojen kompensoimiseksi päädytään rakenta-maan uusi päämuuntaja Laurilan sähköasemalle sekä parantamaan eräiden muuntamoiden ja erottimien maadoituksia. Nämä parannusehdotukset toteuttamalla pystytään sähkötur-vallisuusmääräykset täyttämään maasulkujen osalta pitkälle tulevaisuuteen sekä vähentä-mään asiakkaiden kokemia keskeytyksiä. Lisäksi työssä tehdään ohjeistus Haminan Energia Oy:lle maasulkuvirtojen laskentaa varten.

Materiaalin varaus globaalissa paperiteollisuuden järjestelmässä

Tärkeä osa paperiteollisuuden myyntitapahtumaa on tarkistaa tilatun tuotteen saatavuus ja toimittamisen aikataulu. Käytännössä tämä tarkoittaa kuljetusten, tuotannon ja valmistetun materiaalin tarkistamista. Tässä työssä on tehty olemassa olevan vapaan materiaalin tarkistaminen. Materiaalin tarkastus ei ole uusi idea, mutta kapasiteettivarauksen uudelleen toteutus on tehty tulevan ylläpitotyön helpottamiseksi ja järjestelmän suorituskyvyn parantamiseksi. Lisäksi uutta varauslogiikkaa pystytään käyttämään muissakin tuotannonohjausjärjestelmän ohjelmistoissa. Kapasiteettivaraukseen on myös rakennettu uusi kustannuspohjainen priorisointijärjestelmä, ja mietitty kuinka tätä olisi tulevaisuudessa helppo jalostaa. Erityishuomiota on kiinnitetty toiminnan läpinäkyvyyteen eli siihen, että tarkistuslogiikka kertoo syyt eri materiaalin hylkäämiseen. Työn yhteydessä on analysoitu materiaalivarauksen aiheuttamaa kuormaa järjestelmässä ja mietitty eri tekniikoita suorituskyvyn parantamiseksi.

Kunnallisen palveluyksikön toimintojen kehittäminen ja kustannusten

Työn tavoitteena on sisäisen palveluyksikön prosessikuvauksien kautta kehittää nykyistä toimintaa, laskea tuotettujen palveluiden yksikkökustannuksia ja arvioida palkitsemisen vaikutusta sisäisten tukipalveluiden tuottamisen tehostamiseen Nurmijärven kunnassa. Toimintolaskennalla saadaan aikaiseksi tuotetuille palveluille kustannukset ja tuotehinnoittelu. Tällä saadaan aikaan lähes aiheuttamisperiaatteen mukainen kustannusten kohdistaminen. Lisäksi työssä arvioidaan kustannusten kautta saavutettavaa toiminnan tehokkuutta. Työssä haastateltiin yksikön henkilökuntaa, minkä tuloksena saatiin toiminnasta prosessikuvaukset. Toimintolaskennassa tiedot kerättiin eri järjestelmistä ja yksikössä mitattiin työtehtävien hoitoon käytettyä aikaa. Kannusteiden vaikutuksista järjestettiin kolmen organisaation tietotekniikkayksiköiden henkilökunnalle kysely sekä yksikön esimiehet haastateltiin. Haastattelun avulla selvitettiin palkitsemisen nykytilannetta ja tulevaisuuden kehittämismahdollisuuksia. Tuloksena saatiin tukipalveluhinnasto, jolla toteutettiin sisäisten kustannusten kohdistaminen organisaatiossa. Tukipalveluprosessien kuvaamisen tuloksena saatiin toimenpide-ehdotuksia toteutukseen ja lisäkehittämishankkeita. Työntekijöiden kannustekyselyn tuloksena rahapalkitsemisen lisäksi nousi esiin esimiehen antaman palautteen arvostus sekä oman osaamisen kehittäminen.