Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.

An adaptive drug delivery design using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases: A simulation study

An adaptive drug delivery design is presented in this paper using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases. The generic mathematical model used describes the coupled evolution of concentration of pathogens, plasma cells, antibodies and a numerical value that indicates the relative characteristic of a damaged organ due to the disease under the influence of external drugs. From a system theoretic point of view, the external drugs can be interpreted as control inputs, which can be designed based on control theoretic concepts. In this study, assuming a set of nominal parameters in the mathematical model, first a nonlinear controller (drug administration) is designed based on the principle of dynamic inversion. This nominal drug administration plan was found to be effective in curing "nominal model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics conform to the mathematical model used for the control design exactly. However, it was found to be ineffective in curing "realistic model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics may have off-nominal parameter values and possibly unwanted inputs) in general. Hence, to make the drug delivery dosage design more effective for realistic model patients, a model-following adaptive control design is carried out next by taking the help of neural networks, that are trained online. Simulation studies indicate that the adaptive controller proposed in this paper holds promise in killing the invading pathogens and healing the damaged organ even in the presence of parameter uncertainties and continued pathogen attack. Note that the computational requirements for computing the control are very minimal and all associated computations (including the training of neural networks) can be carried out online. However it assumes that the required diagnosis process can be carried out at a sufficient faster rate so that all the states are available for control computation.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

Analytical modelling of integrated solar drying system

The drying of fruit and vegetables is a subject of great importance. Dried fruit and vegetables have gained commercial importance, and their growth on a commercial scale has become an important sector of the agricultural industry. However, food drying is one of the most energy intensive processes of the major industrial process and accounts for up to 15 % of all industrial energy usage. Due to increasingly high electricity prices and environmental concern, a dryer using traditional energy sources is not a feasible option anymore. Therefore, an alternative/renewable energy source is needed. In this regard, an integrated solar drying system that includes highly efficient double-pass counter flow v-groove solar collector, conical-shaped rock-bed thermal storage, auxiliary heater, the centrifugal fan and the drying chamber has been designed and constructed. Mathematical model for all the individual components as well as an integrated model combining all components of the drying system has been developed. Mathematical equations were solved using MATLAB program. This paper presents the analytical model and key finding of the simulation.

Simulation of Dust Loaded V-I Characteristics of a Commercial Thermal Power Plant Precipitator

A new approach based on finite difference method, is proposed for the simulation of electrical conditions in a dc energized wire-duct electrostatic precipitator with and without dust loading. Simulated voltage-curren characteristics with and without dust loading were compared with the measured characteristics for analyzing the performance of a precipitator. The simple finite difference method gives sufficiently accurate results with reduced mesh size. The results for dust free simulation were validated with published experimental data. Further measurements were conducted at a thermal power plant in India and the results compares well with the measured ones.

Dynamic simulation of activated sludge based wastewater treatment processes: Case studies with Titagarh Sewage Treatment Plant, India

STOAT has been extensively used for the dynamic simulation of an activated sludge based wastewater treatment plant in the Titagarh Sewage Treatment Plant, near Kolkata, India. Some alternative schemes were suggested. Different schemes were compared for the removal of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), b-COD, ammonia, nitrates etc. A combination of IAWQ#1 module with the Takacs module gave best results for the existing scenarios of the Titagarh Sewage Treatment Plant. The modified Bardenpho process was found most effective for reducing the mean b-COD level to as low as 31.4 mg/l, while the mean TSS level was as high as 100.98 mg/l as compared to the mean levels of TSS (92 62 mg/l) and b-COD (92.0 mg/l) in the existing plant. Scheme 2 gave a better scenario for the mean TSS level bringing it down to a mean value of 0.4 mg/l, but a higher mean value for the b-COD level at 54.89 mg/l. The Scheme Final could reduce the mean TSS level to 2.9 mg/l and the mean b-COD level to as low as 38.8 mg/l. The Final Scheme looks to be a technically viable scheme with respect to the overall effluent quality for the plant. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lateral impact derailment mechanisms, simulation and analysis

Lateral collisions between heavy road vehicles and passenger trains at level crossings and the associated derailments are serious safety issues. This paper presents a detailed investigation of the dynamic responses and derailment mechanisms of trains under lateral impact using a multi-body dynamics simulation method. Formulation of a three-dimensional dynamic model of a passenger train running on a ballasted track subject to lateral impact caused by a road truck is presented. This model is shown to predict derailment due to wheel climb and car body overturning mechanisms through numerical examples. Sensitivities of the truck speed and mass, wheel/rail friction and the train suspension to the lateral stability and derailment of the train are reported. It is shown that improvements to the design of train suspensions, including secondary and inter-vehicle lateral dampers have higher potential to mitigate the severity of the collision-induced derailments.

Discrete parameter simulation optimization algorithms with applications to admission control with dependent service times

We propose certain discrete parameter variants of well known simulation optimization algorithms. Two of these algorithms are based on the smoothed functional (SF) technique while two others are based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. They differ from each other in the way perturbations are obtained and also the manner in which projections and parameter updates are performed. All our algorithms use two simulations and two-timescale stochastic approximation. As an application setting, we consider the important problem of admission control of packets in communication networks under dependent service times. We consider a discrete time slotted queueing model of the system and consider two different scenarios - one where the service times have a dependence on the system state and the other where they depend on the number of arrivals in a time slot. Under our settings, the simulated objective function appears ill-behaved with multiple local minima and a unique global minimum characterized by a sharp dip in the objective function in a small region of the parameter space. We compare the performance of our algorithms on these settings and observe that the two SF algorithms show the best results overall. In fact, in many cases studied, SF algorithms converge to the global minimum.

Hydrographic observations and model simulation of the Bay of Bengal freshwater plume

Hydrographic observations were taken along two coastal sections and one open ocean section in the Bay of Bengal during the 1999 southwest monsoon, as a part of the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The coastal section in the northwestern Bay of Bengal, which was occupied twice, captured a freshwater plume in its two stages: first when the plume was restricted to the coastal region although separated from the coast, and then when the plume spread offshore. Below the freshwater layer there were indications of an undercurrent. The coastal section in the southern Bay of Bengal was marked by intense coastal upwelling in a 50 km wide band. In regions under the influence of the freshwater plume, the mixed layer was considerably thinner and occasionally led to the formation of a temperature inversion. The mixed layer and isothermal layer were of similar depth for most of the profiles within and outside the freshwater plume and temperature below the mixed layer decreased rapidly till the top of seasonal thermocline. There was no barrier layer even in regions well under the influence of the freshwater plume. The freshwater plume in the open Bay of Bengal does not advect to the south of 16 degrees N during the southwest monsoon. A model of the Indian Ocean, forced by heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes for the year 1999, reproduces the freshwater plume in the Bay of Bengal reasonably well. Model currents as well as the surface circulation calculated as the sum of geostrophic and Ekman drift show a southeastward North Bay Monsoon Current (NBMC) across the Bay, which forms the southern arm of a cyclonic gyre. The NBMC separates the very low salinity waters of the northern Bay from the higher salinities in the south and thus plays an important role in the regulation of near surface stratification. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrographic observations and model simulation of the Bay of Bengal freshwater plume

Hydrographic observations were taken along two coastal sections and one open ocean section in the Bay of Bengal during the 1999 southwest monsoon, as a part of the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The coastal section in the northwestern Bay of Bengal, which was occupied twice, captured a freshwater plume in its two stages: first when the plume was restricted to the coastal region although separated from the coast, and then when the plume spread offshore. Below the freshwater layer there were indications of an undercurrent. The coastal section in the southern Bay of Bengal was marked by intense coastal upwelling in a 50 km wide band. In regions under the influence of the freshwater plume, the mixed layer was considerably thinner and occasionally led to the formation of a temperature inversion. The mixed layer and isothermal layer were of similar depth for most of the profiles within and outside the freshwater plume and temperature below the mixed layer decreased rapidly till the top of seasonal thermocline. There was no barrier layer even in regions well under the influence of the freshwater plume. The freshwater plume in the open Bay of Bengal does not advect to the south of 16 degrees N during the southwest monsoon. A model of the Indian Ocean, forced by heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes for the year 1999, reproduces the freshwater plume in the Bay of Bengal reasonably well. Model currents as well as the surface circulation calculated as the sum of geostrophic and Ekman drift show a southeastward North Bay Monsoon Current (NBMC) across the Bay, which forms the southern arm of a cyclonic gyre. The NBMC separates the very low salinity waters of the northern Bay from the higher salinities in the south and thus plays an important role in the regulation of near surface stratification. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow with Gradually Increasing Heterogeneity due to Clogging

Well injection replenishes depleting water levels in a well field. Observation well water levels some distance away from the injection well are the indicators of the success of a well injection program. Simulation of the observation well response, located a few tens of meters from the injection well, is likely to be affected by the effects of nonhomogeneous medium, inclined initial water table, and aquifer clogging. Existing algorithms, such as the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow software MODFLOW, are capable of handling the first two conditions, whereas time-dependent clogging effects are yet to be introduced in the groundwater flow models. Elsewhere, aquifer clogging is extensively researched in theory of filtration; scope for its application in a well field is a potential research problem. In the present paper, coupling of one such filtration theory to MODFLOW is introduced. Simulation of clogging effects during “Hansol” well recharge in the parts of western India is found to be encouraging.

Necessity for quantum mechanical simulation for the future technology nodes

In this paper we present and compare the results obtained from semi-classical and quantum mechanical simulation for a Double Gate MOSFET structure to analyze the electrostatics and carrier dynamics of this device. The geometries like gate length, body, thickness of this device have been chosen according to the ITRS specification for the different technology nodes. We have shown the extent of deviation between the semi-classical and quantum mechanical results and hence the need of quantum simulations for the promising nanoscale devices in the future technology nodes predicted in ITRS.