Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Strength improvement of adhesively-bonded scarf repairs in aluminium structures with external reinforcements

Adhesively bonded techniques are an attractive option to repair aluminium structures, compared to more traditional methods. Actually, as a result of the improvement in the mechanical characteristics of adhesives, adhesive bonding has progressively replaced the traditional joining methods. There are several bonded repair configurations, as single-strap, double-strap and scarf. Compared with strap repairs, scarf repairs have the advantages of a higher efficiency and the absence of aerodynamic disturbance. The higher efficiency is caused by the elimination of the significant joint eccentricities of strap repairs. Moreover, stress distributions along the bond length are more uniform, due to tapering of the scarf edges. The main disadvantages of this technique are the difficult machining of the surfaces, associated costs and requirement of specialised labour. This work reports on an experimental and numerical study of the tensile behaviour of two-dimensional (2D) scarf repairs of aluminium structures bonded with the ductile epoxy adhesive Araldite® 2015. The numerical analysis, by Finite Elements (FE), was performed in Abaqus® and used cohesive zone models (CZM) for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer, thus enabling the strength prediction of the repairs. A parametric study was performed on the scarf angle (α) and different configurations of external reinforcement (applied on one or two sides of the repair, and also different reinforcement lengths). The obtained results allowed the establishment of design guidelines for repairing, showing that the use of external reinforcements enables increasing α for equal strength recovery, which makes the repair procedure easier. The numerical technique was accurate in predicting the repairs’ strength, enabling its use for design and optimisation purposes.

Monitoring morphisms to support sustainable interoperability of enterprise systems

Dissertation to obtain the Master degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

High diagnostic efficiency of IgM-ELISA with the use of multiple antigen peptides (MAP1) from T. gondii ESA (SAG-1, GRA-1 and GRA-7), in acute toxoplasmosis

The main serological marker for the diagnosis of recent toxoplasmosis is the specific IgM antibody, along with IgG antibodies of low avidity. However, in some patients these antibodies may persist long after the acute/recent phase, contributing to misdiagnosis in suspected cases of toxoplasmosis. In the present study, the diagnostic efficiency of ELISA was evaluated, with the use of peptides derived from T. gondii ESA antigens, named SAG-1, GRA-1 and GRA-7. In the assay referred to, we studied each of these peptides individually, as well as in four different combinations, as Multiple Antigen Peptides (MAP), aiming to establish a reliable profile for the acute/recent toxoplasmosis with only one patient serum sample. The diagnostic performance of the assay using MAP1, with the combination of SAG-1, GRA-1 and GRA-7 peptides, demonstrated better discrimination of the acute/recent phase from non acute/recent phase of toxoplasmosis. Our results show that IgM antibodies to MAP1 may be useful as a serological marker, enhancing the diagnostic efficiency of the assay for acute/recent phase of toxoplasmosis.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.

Efficiency of strengthening techniques assessed for existing masonry buildings

The Azores archipelago is a zone with a vast cultural heritage, presenting a building stock mainly constructed in traditional stone masonry. It is known that this type of construction exhibits poor behaviour under seismic excitations; however it is extensively used in seismic prone areas, such as this case. The 9th of July of 1998 earthquake was the last seismic event in the islands, leaving many traditional stone constructions severely damaged or totally destroyed. This scenario led to an effort by the local government of improving the seismic resistance of these constructions, with the application of several reinforcement techniques. This work aims to study some of the most used reinforcement schemes after the 1998 earthquake, and to assess their effectiveness in the mitigation of the construction’s seismic vulnerability. A brief evaluation of the cost versus benefit of these retrofitting techniques is also made, seeking to identify those that are most suitable for each building typology. Thus, it was sought to analyze the case of real structures with different geometrical and physical characteristics, by establishing a comparison between the seismic performance of reinforced and non-reinforced structures. The first section contains the analysis of a total of six reinforcement scenarios for each building chosen. Using the recorded 1998 earthquake accelerograms, a linear time-history analysis was performed for each reinforcement scenario. A comparison was then established between the maximum displacements, inter-storey drift and maximum stress obtained, in order to evaluate the global seismic response of each reinforced structure. In the second part of the work, the examination of the performance obtained in the previous section, in relation to the cost of implementing each reinforcement technique, allowed to draw conclusions concerning the viability of implementing each reinforcement method, based on the book value of the buildings in study.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

A criação de valor no mercado da saúde enquanto fator diferenciador para a negociação de preços e competitividade em contexto de crise mundial

Numa altura em que o setor da saúde é apontado como uma área crítica de gastos, nunca foi tão pertinente, pela falta de verbas, refletir e discutir o formato de contratação e de gestão dos cuidados de saúde. A sua fundamentação em custo, volume ou diferenciação, bem como, os indicadores que refletem o investimento, a eficiência e eficácia dos cuidados. Pretendeu-se como objetivo principal estudar a criação de valor no mercado da saúde enquanto fator diferenciador para a negociação de preços e competitividade em contexto de crise económica. Com vista a alcançar este objetivo, procedeu-se à revisão dos modelos teóricos, recorrendo a pesquisa bibliográfica. Procedeu-se também à comparação dos resultados operacionais de uma empresa enquanto prestadora de serviços de oxigenoterapia ao domicílio, tendo por base duas estratégias diferentes: redução direta de preços ou manutenção de preços com criação de valor para o cliente. Tendo em vista as duas estratégias, foram elaboradas duas propostas e posteriormente apresentadas para avaliação e votação on-line por um grupo oito gestores hospitalares. O valor em cuidados de saúde é visível nos benefícios clínicos alcançados pelo dinheiro investido. A estrutura dos atuais sistemas de saúde apenas reconhece redução de gastos, fontes de receita, volume de cuidados, sem orientação para a valorização dos resultados clínicos. Os prestadores deviam competir pela focalização na obtenção de melhores resultados clínicos, pois deve ser a essa a preocupação central dos serviços médicos. Uma boa gestão pode levar a que numa negociação de contratos, uma proposta baseada em valor possa garantir a manutenção dos preços.

Estudo e análise do sequenciamento de tarefas de produção: job shop scheduling

Esta dissertação apresenta um estudo sobre os problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas de produção do tipo job shop scheduling. Os problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas de produção pretendem encontrar a melhor sequência para o processamento de uma lista de tarefas, o instante de início e término de cada tarefa e a afetação de máquinas para as tarefas. Entre estes, encontram-se os problemas com máquinas paralelas, os problemas job shop e flow shop. As medidas de desempenho mais comuns são o makespan (instante de término da execução de todas as tarefas), o tempo de fluxo total, a soma dos atrasos (tardiness), o atraso máximo, o número de tarefas que são completadas após a data limite, entre outros. Num problema do tipo job shop, as tarefas (jobs) consistem num conjunto de operações que têm de ser executadas numa máquina pré-determinada, obedecendo a um determinado sequenciamento com tempos pré-definidos. Estes ambientes permitem diferentes cenários de sequenciamento das tarefas. Normalmente, não são permitidas interrupções no processamento das tarefas (preemption) e pode ainda ser necessário considerar tempos de preparação dependentes da sequência (sequence dependent setup times) ou atribuir pesos (prioridades) diferentes em função da importância da tarefa ou do cliente. Pretende-se o estudo dos modelos matemáticos existentes para várias variantes dos problemas de sequenciamento de tarefas do tipo job shop e a comparação dos resultados das diversas medidas de desempenho da produção. Este trabalho contribui para demonstrar a importância que um bom sequenciamento da produção pode ter na sua eficiência e consequente impacto financeiro.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Avaliação dos mecanismos de concorrência na API do Java 8

As plataformas com múltiplos núcleos tornaram a programação paralela/concorrente num tópico de interesse geral. Diversos modelos de programação têm vindo a ser propostos, facilitando aos programadores a identificação de regiões de código potencialmente paralelizáveis, deixando ao sistema operativo a tarefa de as escalonar dinamicamente em tempo de execução, explorando o maior grau possível de paralelismo. O Java não foge a esta tendência, disponibilizando ao programador um número crescente de bibliotecas de mecanismos de sincronização e paralelização de código. Neste contexto, esta tese apresenta e discute um conjunto de resultados obtidos através de testes intensivos à eficiência de algoritmos de ordenação implementados com recurso aos mecanismos de concorrência da API do Java 8 (Threads, Threadpools, ExecutorService, CountdownLach, ExecutorCompletionService e ForkJoinPools) em sistemas com um número de núcleos variável. Para cada um dos mecanismos, são apresentadas conclusões sobre o seu funcionamento e discutidos os cenários em que o seu uso pode ser rentabilizado de modo a serem obtidos melhores tempos de execução.