Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the author reacts to a paper of Åslund (2011) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region’s recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region’s economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.

A magyar gazdaságpolitika dilemmái = Dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy

A cikk a magyar gazdaságpolitika dilemmáit helyezi szélesebb közgazdasági perspektívába, a stabilizációs programcsomag intézkedéseiből kiindulva. Elemzi azokat az összefüggéseket, amelyek a posztszocialista átmenet három súlyosan nyomasztó feladata: a külső egyensúly és belső pénzügyi egyensúly javítása, valamint a tartós növekedés feltételeinek megteremtése között állnak fenn. A jelen pillanatban a külső egyensúly jól érzékelhető javítása a legsürgősebb; a rövid távú intézkedéseknek elsősorban ennek a feladatnak a szolgálatában kell állniuk. Sajnálatos, hogy az azonnali intézkedések csomagja mindeddig nem ágyazódott be egy meggyőző közép­ és hosszú távú reformtervbe. A cikk végül a gazdasági stabilizáció politikai feltételeit elemzi, és a társadalmi összefogás és önmérséklet jelentőségét hangsúlyozza. / === / The article examines the dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy, placing it into a wider economic perspective and setting out from the measures prescribed stabilization program. The author analyses the interrelations among the three gravely distressing tasks of the post­socialist transition: improvement of the external balances and domestic financial equilibrium, and creation of the conditions of sustainable growth. For the moment, a well perceptible improvement of the external equilibrium is the most urgent task; the short­term measures have to serve first of all this purpose. Unfortunately, the package of short­term measures has not yet been embedded into a convincing medium and long­term reform program. Finally, the article analyses the political conditions of economic stabilization and emphasesizes the importance of joining the social forces and of self restraint.

Can the Paks-2 Nuclear Power Plant operate without State aid? A business economic analysis

Many studies have investigated the prospects for returns, the budgetary and financing background and energy management effects of the new nuclear power plant units to be built at Paks. This document seeks to complement previous economics-based studies by adding a new criterion. The key question in our analysis is whether the power plant company will be capable of independent operations in an economic sense - or will its survival depend on further additional aid by the owner, i.e. via the central budget, after its commissioning? We shall examine from a corporate perspective in what ways the already disclosed financing terms and conditions may affect the everyday operations of the power plant company.

Characterization of design and economic sensitivity of vapor phase carbon adsorption systems to environmental uncertainties

Vapor phase carbon adsorption systems are used to remove aromatics, aliphatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons. The adsorption capacity of granular activated carbon is reduced when environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, and humidity) interfere with homogeneous surface diffusion and pore distribution dynamics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parametric uncertainties in adsorption efficiency. ^ Modified versions of the Langmuir isotherm in conjunction with thermodynamic equations described gaseous adsorption of single component influent onto microporous media. Experimental test results derived from Wang et al. (1999) simulated adsorption kinetics while the Myer and monsoon Langmuir constant accounted for isothermal gas compression and energetic heterogeneity under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Responsiveness of adsorption capacity to environmental uncertainties was analyzed by statistical sensitivity and modeled by breakthrough curves. Results indicated that extensive fluctuations in adsorption capacity significantly reduced carbon consumption while isothermal variations had a pronounced effect on saturation capacity. ^

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Pay or conditions? The role of workplace characteristics in nurses’ labor supply

Acknowledgments We are grateful for the thoughtful comments of two referees. We would also like to thank conference participants at the Scottish Economic Society Conference and seminar participants at Newcastle University. Receipt of financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged (RES-000-23-1240). The Health Economics Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors.

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Pay or conditions? The role of workplace characteristics in nurses’ labor supply

Acknowledgments We are grateful for the thoughtful comments of two referees. We would also like to thank conference participants at the Scottish Economic Society Conference and seminar participants at Newcastle University. Receipt of financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged (RES-000-23-1240). The Health Economics Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors.

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s

Peer reviewed

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Sandcastles of hope? Civil society organizations and the working conditions of migrant farmworkers in North America

This research explores whether civil society organizations (CSOs) can contribute to more effectively regulating the working conditions of temporary migrant farmworkers in North America. This dissertation unfolds in five parts. The first part of the dissertation sets out the background context. The context includes the political economy of agriculture and temporary migrant labour more broadly. It also includes the political economy of the legal regulations that govern immigration and work relations. The second part of the research builds an analytical model for studying the operation of CSOs active in working with the migrant farmworker population. The purpose of the analytical framework is to make sense of real-world examples by providing categories for analysis and a means to get at the channels of influence that CSOs utilize to achieve their aims. To this end, the model incorporates the insights from three significant bodies of literature—regulatory studies, labour studies, and economic sociology. The third part of the dissertation suggests some key strategic issues that CSOs should consider when intervening to assist migrant farmworkers, and also proposes a series of hypotheses about how CSOs can participate in the regulatory process. The fourth part probes and extends these hypotheses by empirically investigating the operation of three CSOs that are currently active in assisting migrant farm workers in North America: the Agricultural Workers Alliance (Canada), Global Workers’ Justice Alliance (USA), and the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (USA). The fifth and final part draws together lessons from the empirical work and concluded that CSOs can fill gaps left by the waning power of actors, such as trade unions and labour inspectorates, as well as act in ways that these traditional actors can not.