Do real balance effects invalidate the Taylor principle in closed and open economies?

This paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast-based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a Neo-Wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects. We show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the Taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium. The problem is exacerbated in open economies, particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer-price, rather than domestic-price, inflation. However, determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia.

An evaluation of the correlation between open solar flux and total solar irradiance

The correlation between the coronal source flux F_{S} and the total solar irradiance I_{TS} is re-evaluated in the light of an additional 5 years' data from the rising phase of solar cycle 23 and also by using cosmic ray fluxes detected at Earth. Tests on monthly averages show that the correlation with F_{S} deduced from the interplanetary magnetic field (correlation coefficient, r = 0.62) is highly significant (99.999%), but that there is insufficient data for the higher correlation with annual means (r = 0.80) to be considered significant. Anti-correlations between I_{TS} and cosmic ray fluxes are found in monthly data for all stations and geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs (r ranging from −0.63 to −0.74) and these have significance levels between 85% and 98%. In all cases, the t is poorest for the earliest data (i.e., prior to 1982). Excluding these data improves the anticorrelation with cosmic rays to r = −0:93 for one-year running means. Both the interplanetary magnetic field data and the cosmic ray fluxes indicate that the total solar irradiance lags behind the open solar flux with a delay that is estimated to have an optimum value of 2.8 months (and is within the uncertainty range 0.8-8.0 months at the 90% level).

The dependence of high-latitude dayside ionospheric flows on the North-South component of the IMF: A high time resolution correlation analysis using EISCAT “Polar” and AMPTE UKS and IRM data

In 1984 and 1985 a series of experiments was undertaken in which dayside ionospheric flows were measured by the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, while observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) were made by the AMPTE UKS and IRM spacecraft upstream from the Earth's bow shock. As a result, 40 h of simultaneous data were acquired, which are analysed in this paper to investigate the relationship between the ionospheric flow and the North-South (Bz) component of the IMF. The ionospheric flow data have 2.5 min resolution, and cover the dayside local time sector from ∼ 09:30 to ∼ 18:30 M.L.T. and the latitude range from 70.8° to 74.3°. Using cross-correlation analysis it is shown that clear relationships do exist between the ionospheric flow and IMF Bz, but that the form of the relations depends strongly on latitude and local time. These dependencies are readily interpreted in terms of a twinvortex flow pattern in which the magnitude and latitudinal extent of the flows become successively larger as Bz becomes successively more negative. Detailed maps of the flow are derived for a range of Bz values (between ± 4 nT) which clearly demonstrate the presence of these effects in the data. The data also suggest that the morning reversal in the East-West component of flow moves to earlier local times as Bz, declines in value and becomes negative. The correlation analysis also provides information on the ionospheric response time to changes in IMF Bz, it being found that the response is very rapid indeed. The most rapid response occurs in the noon to mid-afternoon sector, where the westward flows of the dusk cell respond with a delay of 3.9 ± 2.2 min to changes in the North-South field at the subsolar magnetopause. The flows appear to evolve in form over the subsequent ~ 5 min interval, however, as indicated by the longer response times found for the northward component of flow in this sector (6.7 ±2.2 min), and in data from earlier and later local times. No evidence is found for a latitudinal gradient in response time; changes in flow take place coherently in time across the entire radar field-of-view.

1H-13C HSQC NMR spectroscopy for estimating procyanidin/prodelphinidin and cis/trans-flavan-3-ol ratios of condensed tannin samples: correlation with thiolysis

Studies with a diverse array of 22 purified condensed tannin (CT) samples from nine plant species demonstrated that procyanidin/prodelphinidin (PC/PD) and cis/trans-flavan-3-ol ratios can be appraised by 1H-13C HSQC NMR spectroscopy. The method was developed from samples containing 44 to ~100% CT, PC/PD ratios ranging from 0/100 to 99/1, and cis/trans ratios from 58/42 to 95/5 as determined by thiolysis with benzyl mercaptan. Integration of cross-peak contours of H/C-6' signals from PC and of H/C-2',6' signals from PD yielded nuclei adjusted estimates that were highly correlated with PC/PD ratios obtained by thiolysis (R2 = 0.99). Cis/trans-flavan-3-ol ratios, obtained by integration of the respective H/C-4 cross-peak contours, were also related to determinations made by thiolysis (R2 = 0.89). Overall, 1H-13C HSQC NMR spectroscopy appears to be a viable alternative to thiolysis for estimating PC/PD and cis/trans ratios of CT, if precautions are taken to avoid integration of cross-peak contours of contaminants.

Neural stem cells, inflammation and NF-kappaB: basic principle of maintenance and repair or origin of brain tumours?

Several recent reports suggest that inflammatory signals play a decisive role in the self-renewal, migration and differentiation of multipotent neural stem cells (NSCs). NSCs are believed to be able to ameliorate the symptoms of several brain pathologies through proliferation, migration into the area of the lesion and either differentiation into the appropriate cell type or secretion of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Although NSCs have beneficial roles, current evidence indicates that brain tumours, such as astrogliomas or ependymomas are also caused by tumour-initiating cells with stem-like properties. However, little is known about the cellular and molecular processes potentially generating tumours from NSCs. Most pro-inflammatory conditions are considered to activate the transcription factor NF-kappaB in various cell types. Strong inductive effects of NF-kappaB on proliferation and migration of NSCs have been described. Moreover, NF-kappaB is constitutively active in most tumour cells described so far. Chronic inflammation is also known to initiate cancer. Thus, NF-kappaB might provide a novel mechanistic link between chronic inflammation, stem cells and cancer. This review discusses the apparently ambivalent role of NF-kappaB: physiological maintenance and repair of the brain via NSCs, and a potential role in tumour initiation. Furthermore, it reveals a possible mechanism of brain tumour formation based on inflammation and NF-kappaB activity in NSCs.

Borderline cases and the collapsing principle

John Broome has argued that value incommensurability is vagueness, by appeal to a controversial ‘collapsing principle’ about comparative indeterminacy. I offer a new counterexample to the collapsing principle. That principle allows us to derive an outright contradiction from the claim that some object is a borderline case of some predicate. But if there are no borderline cases, then the principle is empty. The collapsing principle is either false or empty.

Engineering the electronic bandgaps and band edge positions in carbon-substituted 2D boron nitride: a first-principles investigation

Modification of graphene to open a robust gap in its electronic spectrum is essential for its use in field effect transistors and photochemistry applications. Inspired by recent experimental success in the preparation of homogeneous alloys of graphene and boron nitride (BN), we consider here engineering the electronic structure and bandgap of C2xB1−xN1−x alloys via both compositional and configurational modification. We start from the BN end-member, which already has a large bandgap, and then show that (a) the bandgap can in principle be reduced to about 2 eV with moderate substitution of C (x < 0.25); and (b) the electronic structure of C2xB1−xN1−x can be further tuned not only with composition x, but also with the configuration adopted by C substituents in the BN matrix. Our analysis, based on accurate screened hybrid functional calculations, provides a clear understanding of the correlation found between the bandgap and the level of aggregation of C atoms: the bandgap decreases most when the C atoms are maximally isolated, and increases with aggregation of C atoms due to the formation of bonding and anti-bonding bands associated with hybridization of occupied and empty defect states. We determine the location of valence and conduction band edges relative to vacuum and discuss the implications on the potential use of 2D C2xB1−xN1−x alloys in photocatalytic applications. Finally, we assess the thermodynamic limitations on the formation of these alloys using a cluster expansion model derived from first-principles.

A laboratory incubation method for determining the rate of microbiological degradation of skeletal muscle tissue in soil

A controlled laboratory experiment is described, in principle and practice, which can be used for the of determination the rate of tissue decomposition in soil. By way of example, an experiment was conducted to determine the effect of temperature (12°C, 22°C) on the aerobic decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Organic Texel × Suffolk lamb (Ovis aries)) in a sandy loam soil. Measurements of decomposition processes included muscle tissue mass loss, microbial CO2 respiration, and muscle tissue carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Muscle tissue mass loss at 22°C always was greater than at 12°C (p < 0.001). Microbial respiration was greater in samples incubated at 22°C for the initial 21 days of burial (p < 0.01). All buried muscle tissue samples demonstrated changes in C and N content at the end of the experiment. A significant correlation (p < 0.001) was demonstrated between the loss of muscle tissue-derived C (C1) and microbially-respired C (Cm) demonstrating CO2 respiration may be used to predict mass loss and hence biodegradation. In this experiment Q10 (12°C - 22°C) = 2.0. This method is recommended as a useful tool in determining the effect of environmental variables on the rate of decomposition of various tissues and associated materials.

Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

Generalized convective quasi-equilibrium principle

A generalization of Arakawa and Schubert's convective quasi-equilibrium principle is presented for a closure formulation of mass-flux convection parameterization. The original principle is based on the budget of the cloud work function. This principle is generalized by considering the budget for a vertical integral of an arbitrary convection-related quantity. The closure formulation includes Arakawa and Schubert's quasi-equilibrium, as well as both CAPE and moisture closures as special cases. The formulation also includes new possibilities for considering vertical integrals that are dependent on convective-scale variables, such as the moisture within convection. The generalized convective quasi-equilibrium is defined by a balance between large-scale forcing and convective response for a given vertically-integrated quantity. The latter takes the form of a convolution of a kernel matrix and a mass-flux spectrum, as in the original convective quasi-equilibrium. The kernel reduces to a scalar when either a bulk formulation is adopted, or only large-scale variables are considered within the vertical integral. Various physical implications of the generalized closure are discussed. These include the possibility that precipitation might be considered as a potentially-significant contribution to the large-scale forcing. Two dicta are proposed as guiding physical principles for the specifying a suitable vertically-integrated quantity.

Manifesting carriers of Xp21 muscular dystrophy; lack of correlation between dystrophin expression and clinical weakness.

Ten females presenting with muscle weakness and a raised serum creatine kinase revealed abnormalities in the expression of dystrophin in their muscle biopsies and were diagnosed as manifesting carriers of Xp21 Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy. Seven cases, aged 3-22 yr at the time of biopsy, had a variable proportion of dystrophin-deficient fibres and an abnormal expression on immunoblot. These were confidently diagnosed as manifesting carriers. Results in the remaining three cases, aged 8-10 yr, were less clear-cut. Dystrophin expression on immunoblots was slightly reduced and some unevenness and reduction of immunolabelling was seen on sections, but dystrophin-deficient fibres were not a feature of these cases. The weakness in the ten carriers ranged from minimal to severe and there was no correlation between the degree of weakness and the number of dystrophin-deficient fibres. Two minimally weak girls had a high proportion of dystrophin-deficient fibres. Our results show that analysis of dystrophin expression is useful for the differential diagnosis of carriers of Xp21 dystrophy and autosomal muscular dystrophy, but that dystrophin expression does not correlate directly with the degree of clinical weakness.

Reverse correlation reveals how observers sample visual information when estimating three-dimensional shape

Human observers exhibit large systematic distance-dependent biases when estimating the three-dimensional (3D) shape of objects defined by binocular image disparities. This has led some to question the utility of disparity as a cue to 3D shape and whether accurate estimation of 3D shape is at all possible. Others have argued that accurate perception is possible, but only with large continuous perspective transformations of an object. Using a stimulus that is known to elicit large distance-dependent perceptual bias (random dot stereograms of elliptical cylinders) we show that contrary to these findings the simple adoption of a more naturalistic viewing angle completely eliminates this bias. Using behavioural psychophysics, coupled with a novel surface-based reverse correlation methodology, we show that it is binocular edge and contour information that allows for accurate and precise perception and that observers actively exploit and sample this information when it is available.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source 4 population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to nonacclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

The proportion of failures of the Hasse norm principle

For any number field we calculate the exact proportion of rational numbers which are everywhere locally a norm but not globally a norm from the number field.