An asymptotic test for the Conditional Value-at-Risk

Conditional Value-at-Risk (equivalent to the Expected Shortfall, Tail Value-at-Risk and Tail Conditional Expectation in the case of continuous probability distributions) is an increasingly popular risk measure in the fields of actuarial science, banking and finance, and arguably a more suitable alternative to the currently widespread Value-at-Risk. In my paper, I present a brief literature survey, and propose a statistical test of the location of the CVaR, which may be applied by practising actuaries to test whether CVaR-based capital levels are in line with observed data. Finally, I conclude with numerical experiments and some questions for future research.

Quota bonuses as localized sales bonuses

Managerial bonus schemes and their effects on firm strategies and market outcomes are extensively discussed in the literature. Though quota bonuses are not uncommon in practice, they have not been analysed so far. In this article we compare quota bonuses to profit-based evaluation and sales (quantity) bonuses. In a duopoly setting with independent demand shocks we find that under certain circumstances choosing quota bonuses is a dominant strategy. This may explain the widespread use of quota bonuses in situations where incentive problems are relevant.

An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Essays on durable goods consumption and firm innovation

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters. Chapter Two examines how free riding across neighbors influenced the diffusion of color television sets in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors concerning its patent output. Chapter Four discusses how knowledge stocks influence a patenting firm’s later diversification. Chapter Two documents the existence of a type of network effects—free riding across neighbors—in the consumption of color television sets in rural China, which reduces the propensity of non-owners to purchase. I construct a model of the timing of the purchase of a durable good in the presence of free riding, and test its key implications using household survey data in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors about its patent output by examining insider trading patterns and stock price changes in R&D intensive firms. It demonstrates that management has considerable information about its patent output beyond what is known to investors. It also shows that the predictive power of insider trading patterns on patent output comes from purchases rather than sales. Chapter Four discusses two sequential channels through which knowledge stocks may influence a firm’s later diversification. One is that firms with more knowledge are more likely to enter a new industry. The other is that firms’ businesses have a better chance of surviving, conditional on being formed. By examining U.S. public patenting firms in manufacturing sectors for 1984-1996, I find that knowledge stocks predict the likelihood of new industry entry when controlling for firm size. However, this predictive power is weakened when diversification effects are included. On the other hand, a survival study of newly established segments shows that initial knowledge stocks have significant positive effects on segment survival, whereas diversification effects are insignificant.

Sales tax enforcement: An empirical analysis of compliance enforcement methodologies and pathologies

Most research on tax evasion has focused on the income tax. Sales tax evasion has been largely ignored and dismissed as immaterial. This paper explored the differences between income tax and sales tax evasion and demonstrated that sales tax enforcement is deserving of and requires the use of different tools to achieve compliance. Specifically, the major enforcement problem with sales tax is not evasion: it is theft perpetrated by companies that act as collection agents for the state. Companies engage in a principal-agent relationship with the state and many retain funds collected as an agent of the state for private use. As such, the act of sales tax theft bears more resemblance to embezzlement than to income tax evasion. It has long been assumed that the sales tax is nearly evasion free, and state revenue departments report voluntary compliance in a manner that perpetuates this myth. Current sales tax compliance enforcement methodologies are similar in form to income tax compliance enforcement methodologies and are based largely on trust. The primary focus is on delinquent filers with a very small percentage of businesses subject to audit. As a result, there is a very large group of noncompliant businesses who file on time and fly below the radar while stealing millions of taxpayer dollars. ^ The author utilized a variety of statistical methods with actual field data derived from operations of the Southern Region Criminal Investigations Unit of the Florida Department of Revenue to evaluate current and proposed sales tax compliance enforcement methodologies in a quasi-experimental, time series research design and to set forth a typology of sales tax evaders. This study showed that current estimates of voluntary compliance in sales tax systems are seriously and significantly overstated and that current enforcement methodologies are inadequate to identify the majority of violators and enforce compliance. Sales tax evasion is modeled using the theory of planned behavior and Cressey’s fraud triangle and it is demonstrated that proactive enforcement activities, characterized by substantial contact with non-delinquent taxpayers, results in superior ability to identify noncompliance and provides a structure through which noncompliant businesses can be rehabilitated.^

Empowering Catering Sales Managers with Pricing Authority

In the hotel business, catering sales managers often encounter potential clients who expect to negotiate for items such as room rental fees, audiovisual charges, and bartending fees. This article addresses both the advantages and disadvantages of empowering sales managers with the authority to reduce or waive these charges. Thus, hoteliers are advised to extend a structured yield management mindset into the hotel’s function-space area.

Sales Promotion in Hotels:A British Perspective

In their article - Sales Promotion In Hotels: A British Perspective - by Francis Buttle, Lecturer, Department of Hotel, Restaurant, and Travel Administration, University of Massachusetts and Ini Akpabio, Property Manager, Trusthouse Forte, Britain, Buttle and Akpabio initially state: “Sales promotion in hotels is in its infancy. Other industries, particularly consumer goods manufacturing, have long recognized the contribution that sales promotion can make to the cost-effective achievement of marketing objectives. Sales promotion activities in hotels have remained largely uncharted. The authors define, identify and classify these hotel sales promotion activities to understand their function and form, and to highlight any scope for improvement.” The authors begin their discussion by attempting to define what the phrase sales promotion [SP] actually means. “The Institute of Sales Promotion regards sales promotions as “adding value, usually of a temporary nature, to a product or service in order to persuade the end user to purchase that particular brand as opposed to a competitive brand,” the authors offer. Williams, however, describes sales promotions more broadly as “short term tactical marketing tools which are used to achieve specific marketing objectives during a defined time period,” Buttle and Akpabio present with attribution. “The most significant difference between these two viewpoints is that Williams does not limit his definition to activities which are targeted at the consumer,” is their educated view. A lot of the discussion is centered on the differences in the collective marketing-promotional mix. “…it is not always easy to definitively categorize promotional activity,” Buttle and Akpabio say. “For example, in personal selling, a sales promotion such as a special bonus offer may be used to close the sale; an advertisement may be sales promotional in character in that it offers discounts.” Are promotion and marketing distinguishable as two separate entities? “…not only may there be conceptual confusion between components of the promotional mix, but there is sometimes a blurring of the boundaries between the elements of the marketing mix,” the authors suggest. “There are several reasons why SP is particularly suitable for use in hotels: seasonality, increasing competitiveness, asset characteristics, cost characteristics, increased use of channel intermediaries, new product launches, and deal proneness.” Buttle and Akpabio offer their insight on each of these segments. The authors also want you to know that SP customer applications are not the only game in town, SP trade applications are just as essential. Bonuses, enhanced commission rates, and vouchers are but a few examples of trade SP. The research for the article was compiled from several sources including, mail surveys, telephone surveys, personal interviews, trade magazines and newspapers; essentially in the U.K.

Effect of Smoke-Free Ordinances on Restaurant and Bar Sales

Peer-reviewed studies that have examined the effect of the enactment of smoke-free ordinances on restaurant and bar sales have uniformly found that the enactment of these ordinances does not decrease restaurant or bar sales, with most studies observing no effect on restaurant revenues.

Developing A Catering Sales Program

A successful catering sales program consists of developing and properly following up on three types of accounts: present, past, and new. Ray Hooks reveals a systematic approach to increasing business in catering sales.

A study to adapt various sales forecasting methods for use by military club managers

The purpose of this study is to adapt and combine the following methods of sales forecasting: Classical Time-Series Decomposition, Operationally Based Data and Judgmental Forecasting for use by military club managers.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Analysis of residuals in contingency tables: another nail in the coffin of conditional approaches to significance testing.

Omnibus tests of significance in contingency tables use statistics of the chi-square type. When the null is rejected, residual analyses are conducted to identify cells in which observed frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies. Residual analyses are thus conditioned on a significant omnibus test. Conditional approaches have been shown to substantially alter type I error rates in cases involving t tests conditional on the results of a test of equality of variances, or tests of regression coefficients conditional on the results of tests of heteroscedasticity. We show that residual analyses conditional on a significant omnibus test are also affected by this problem, yielding type I error rates that can be up to 6 times larger than nominal rates, depending on the size of the table and the form of the marginal distributions. We explored several unconditional approaches in search for a method that maintains the nominal type I error rate and found out that a bootstrap correction for multiple testing achieved this goal. The validity of this approach is documented for two-way contingency tables in the contexts of tests of independence, tests of homogeneity, and fitting psychometric functions. Computer code in MATLAB and R to conduct these analyses is provided as Supplementary Material.

Estudio del efecto de la reducción del contenido de sales nitrificantes en la calidad microbiológica y aroma de los embutidos crudos curados

Entre las diferentes técnicas que se utilizan para la conservación de la carne se encuentra el curado, método tradicional basado en el empleo de cloruro sódico conjuntamente con sales nitrificantes (nitratos y/o nitritos). Estos compuestos ejercen un importante papel como antimicrobianos y antioxidantes, y participan en la formación del color y aroma típicos de los productos curados. A pesar de todos estos efectos beneficiosos, las sales nitrificantes pueden ser precursoras de la formación de nitrosaminas, compuestos con actividad carcinogénica, teratogénica y mutagénica demostrada. Por este motivo, en los últimos años se ha planteado la posibilidad de reducir la presencia de nitratos y nitritos o incluso evitar su utilización en los productos cárnicos. Para ello es necesario llevar a cabo estudios rigurosos sobre el impacto real de la concentración de nitrificantes en estos productos, a fin de evaluar la posibilidad de disminuir las cantidades permitidas, sin que ello afecte a su seguridad y calidad sensorial. Teniendo en cuenta estos antecedentes, esta Tesis Doctoral se planteó como objetivo evaluar el efecto de la reducción de la concentración de nitrato y nitrito (hasta en un 50% de la cantidad máxima permitida actualmente) en la evolución de la microbiota habitual de los embutidos crudos curados y en el control de los principales microorganismos patógenos asociados a su consumo, así como en el perfil de compuestos volátiles responsables de su aroma...

Bayesian estimation in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Esta tesis doctoral nace con el propósito de entender, analizar y sobre todo modelizar el comportamiento estadístico de las series financieras. En este sentido, se puede afirmar que los modelos que mejor recogen las especiales características de estas series son los modelos de heterocedasticidad condicionada en tiempo discreto,si los intervalos de tiempo en los que se recogen los datos lo permiten, y en tiempo continuo si tenemos datos diarios o datos intradía. Con esta finalidad, en esta tesis se proponen distintos estimadores bayesianos para la estimación de los parámetros de los modelos GARCH en tiempo discreto (Bollerslev (1986)) y COGARCH en tiempo continuo (Kluppelberg et al. (2004)). En el capítulo 1 se introducen las características de las series financieras y se presentan los modelos ARCH, GARCH y COGARCH, así como sus principales propiedades. Mandelbrot (1963) destacó que las series financieras no presentan estacionariedad y que sus incrementos no presentan autocorrelación, aunque sus cuadrados sí están correlacionados. Señaló también que la volatilidad que presentan no es constante y que aparecen clusters de volatilidad. Observó la falta de normalidad de las series financieras, debida principalmente a su comportamiento leptocúrtico, y también destacó los efectos estacionales que presentan las series, analizando como se ven afectadas por la época del año o el día de la semana. Posteriormente Black (1976) completó la lista de características especiales incluyendo los denominados leverage effects relacionados con como las fluctuaciones positivas y negativas de los precios de los activos afectan a la volatilidad de las series de forma distinta.

Viabilidad tecnológica y biodisponibilidad de diferentes sales de calcio como ingredientes funcionales en productos cárnicos

La carne y los productos cárnicos son alimentos importantes de la dieta, ya que poseen compuestos de un elevado valor biológico como los aminoácidos, vitaminas, principalmente del grupo B y minerales como el hierro, zinc y fósforo. Sin embargo, durante los últimos años, se han relacionado con algunas enfermedades como las cardiovasculares y la obesidad. Este hecho ha contribuido a un descenso de su consumo y se han convertido en objetivo de científicos e industrias cárnicas para transformarlos en nuevos productos de acuerdo con las recomendaciones nutricionales. Por ello se han desarrollado productos cárnicos funcionales mediante el empleo de diferentes estrategias, como la incorporación de compuestos bioactivos beneficiosos para la salud. Entre ellos caben destacar diferentes tipos de fibra, polifenoles, ácidos grasos insaturados, probióticos, vitaminas o minerales. El calcio es uno de los minerales de mayor importancia en el organismo ya que es un componente estructural esencial en huesos y dientes y forma parte de diferentes procesos fisiológicos como la contracción muscular, la coagulación sanguínea, la trasmisión nerviosa y la permeabilidad celular. Su deficiencia se ha asociado con enfermedades como la osteoporosis y la hipertensión arterial. Por ello, las autoridades sanitarias recomiendan una ingesta diaria (IDR) de calcio de 1000 mg para adultos de una edad comprendida entre los 19 y 50 años (Institute of Medicine, 2010) o de 800 mg (Directiva 2008/100/CE), independientemente de la edad de los individuos...