Expectation and variation with a virtual die

By the time students reach the middle years they have experienced many chance activities based on dice. Common among these are rolling one die to explore the relationship of frequency and theoretical probability, and rolling two dice and summing the outcomes to consider their probabilities. Although dice may be considered overused by some, the advantage they offer is a familiar context within which to explore much more complex concepts. If the basic chance mechanism of the device is understood, it is possible to enter quickly into an arena of more complex concepts. This is what happened with a two hour activity engaged in by four classes of Grade 6 students in the same school. The activity targeted the concepts of variation and expectation. The teachers held extended discussions with their classes on variation and expectation at the beginning of the activity, with students contributing examples of the two concepts from their own experience. These notions are quite sophisticated for Grade 6, but the underlying concepts describe phenomena that students encounter every day. For example, time varies continuously; sporting results vary from game to game; the maximum temperature varies from day to day. However, there is an expectation about tomorrow’s maximum temperature based on the expert advice from the weather bureau. There may also be an expectation about a sporting result based on the participants’ previous results. It is this juxtaposition that makes life interesting. Variation hence describes the differences we see in phenomena around us. In a scenario displaying variation, expectation describes the effort to characterise or summarise the variation and perhaps make a prediction about the message arising from the scenario. The explicit purpose of the activity described here was to use the familiar scenario of rolling a die to expose these two concepts. Because the students had previously experienced rolling physical dice they knew instinctively about the variation that occurs across many rolls and about the theoretical expectation that each side should “come up” one-sixth of the time. They had observed the instances of the concepts in action, but had not consolidated the underlying terminology to describe it. As the two concepts are so fundamental to understanding statistics, we felt it would be useful to begin building in the familiar environment of rolling a die. Because hand-held dice limit the explorations students can undertake, the classes used the soft-ware TinkerPlots (Konold & Miller, 2011) to simulate rolling a die multiple times.

Climbing skill and complexity of climbing wall design: Assessment of jerk as a novel indicator of performance fluency

This study investigated a new performance indicator to assess climbing fluency (smoothness of the hip trajectory and orientation of a climber using normalized jerk coefficients) to explore effects of practice and hold design on performance. Eight experienced climbers completed four repetitions of two, 10-m high routes with similar difficulty levels, but varying in hold graspability (holds with one edge vs holds with two edges). An inertial measurement unit was attached to the hips of each climber to collect 3D acceleration and 3D orientation data to compute jerk coefficients. Results showed high correlations (r = .99, P < .05) between the normalized jerk coefficient of hip trajectory and orientation. Results showed higher normalized jerk coefficients for the route with two graspable edges, perhaps due to more complex route finding and action regulation behaviors. This effect decreased with practice. Jerk coefficient of hip trajectory and orientation could be a useful indicator of climbing fluency for coaches as its computation takes into account both spatial and temporal parameters (ie, changes in both climbing trajectory and time to travel this trajectory)

Reproducibility of fatmax and fat oxidation rates during exercise in recreationally trained males

Aerobic exercise training performed at the intensity eliciting maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax) has been shown to improve the metabolic profile of obese patients. However, limited information is available on the reproducibility of Fatmax and related physiological measures. The aim of this study was to assess the intra-individual variability of: a) Fatmax measurements determined using three different data analysis approaches and b) fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates at rest and at each stage of an individualized graded test. Fifteen healthy males [body mass index 23.1±0.6 kg/m2, maximal oxygen consumption () 52.0±2.0 ml/kg/min] completed a maximal test and two identical submaximal incremental tests on ergocycle (30-min rest followed by 5-min stages with increments of 7.5% of the maximal power output). Fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. Fatmax was determined with three approaches: the sine model (SIN), measured values (MV) and 3rd polynomial curve (P3). Intra-individual coefficients of variation (CVs) and limits of agreement were calculated. CV for Fatmax determined with SIN was 16.4% and tended to be lower than with P3 and MV (18.6% and 20.8%, respectively). Limits of agreement for Fatmax were −2±27% of with SIN, −4±32 with P3 and −4±28 with MV. CVs of oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production and respiratory exchange rate were <10% at rest and <5% during exercise. Conversely, CVs of fat oxidation rates (20% at rest and 24–49% during exercise) and carbohydrate oxidation rates (33.5% at rest, 8.5–12.9% during exercise) were higher. The intra-individual variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates was high (CV>15%), regardless of the data analysis approach employed. Further research on the determinants of the variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates is required.

Synthesis and luminescent properties of star-burst D-Pi-A compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms

Two new star-burst compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms (1a and 1b) were synthesized and characterized. Their photophysical properties were investigated systematically via spectroscopic and theoretical methods. Both compounds exhibit strong 1π–π⁎ transitions in the UV region and intense 1π–π⁎/intramolecular charge transfer (1ICT) absorption bands in the UV–vis region. Introducing the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm on the 1,3,5-triazine core causes a slight bathochromic shift and enhanced molar extinction coefficient of the 1π–π⁎/1ICT transition band. Both compounds are emissive in solution at room temperature and 77 K, which exhibit pronounced positive solvatochromic effect. The emitting state could be ascribed to 1ICT state in more polar solvent, and 1π–π⁎ state in low-polarity solvent. The high emission quantum yields (Φem=0.90~1.0) of 1a and 1b (in hexane and toluene) make them potential candidates as efficient light-emitting materials. The spectroscopic studies and theoretical calculations indicate that the photophysical properties of these compounds can be tuned by the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm, which would also be useful for rational design of photofunctional materials.

Analysis of solar desalination system using heat pump

This paper investigates a pilot desalination system which consists of a direct expansion solar assisted heat pump (DXSAHP) coupled to a single-effect evaporator unit. The working fluid used is R134a and distillate is obtained via falling film evaporation and flashing in the unit. Experiments have been conducted in both day and night meteorological conditions in Singapore and the effects of solar irradiation and compressor speed have been studied against the system performance. From the experiments, the Performance Ratio (PR) obtained ranges from 0.43 to 0.88, the average Coefficient of Performance (COP) was 8 and the highest distillate production recorded was 1.38 kg/h

Performance analysis of solar desiccant-evaporative cooling for a commercial building under different Australian climates

This paper evaluates and compares the system performance of a solar desiccant-evaporative cooling (SDEC) system with a referenced conventional variable air volume (VAV) system for a typical office building in all 8 Australian capital cities. A simulation model of the building is developed using the whole building simulation software EnergyPlus. The performance indicators for the comparison are system coefficient of performance (COP), annual primary energy consumption, annual energy savings, and annual CO2 emissions reduction. The simulation results show that Darwin has the most apparent advantages for SDEC system applications with an annual energy savings of 557 GJ and CO2 emission reduction of 121 tonnes. The maximum system COP is 7. For other climate zones such as Canberra, Hobart and Melbourne, the SDEC system is not as energy efficient as the conventional VAV system.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Low-temperature electrical conductivity of LaNi1-xFexO3

We report the electrical conductivity between 2 and 300 K for LaNi1-xFexO3 across the composition-controlled metal-insulator (m-i) transition. Using a method first suggested by Mobius, we identify the critical concentration x(c) to be 0.3 for the m-i transition. The negative temperature coefficient of resistivity observed at low temperatures in the metallic phase follows a temperature dependence characteristic of disorder effects. The semiconducting compositions (x greater than or equal to 0.3) do not show a simple activation energy but exhibit variable-range hopping at high temperatures confirming that the m-i transition in this system is driven by increasing disorder effects.

Superconductivity in the nonadiabatic limit

Isotope-shift exponent (cu) and the pressure coefficient of superconducting transition temperature (beta) have been studied in the nonadiabatic limit. We have considered the effect of nonadiabaticity in both within and beyond the Migdal-Eliashberg formalism. It reveals from our study that the pressure coefficient of superconducting transition is high for the low-T-c region and low for the high-T-c region and the minimum value of alpha is obtained where the transition temperature is maximum. Lowest value of isotope-shift exponent is obtained for small momentum exchange between the electrons and the bosonic field. Qualitative variation of beta with temperature is consistent with the experimental results of the hole doped superconductors for small momentum exchange.

Yielding of sensitive clays: micromechanical considerations

Test results reported on several natural sensitive soils show significant anisotropy of the yield curves, which are generally oriented along the coefficient of earth pressure at rest (K-0) axis. An attempt is made in this paper to explain the anisotropy in yielding from microstructural considerations. An elliptic pore, with particle domains aligned along the periphery of the pore, and with the major axis of the pore being oriented along the direction of the in situ major principal stress, is chosen as the unit of microstructure. An analysis of forces at the interdomain contacts around the ellipse is carried out with reference to experimentally determined yield stress conditions of one soil, and a yield criteria is defined. The analysis, with the proposed yield criteria, enables one to define the complete yield curve for any other soil from the results of only two tests (one constant eta compression test with eta close to eta(K?0), where eta is the stress ratio (= q/p) and eta(K?0) is the stress ratio corresponding to anisotropic K-0 compression, and another undrained shear test). Predicted yield curves are compared with experimental yield curves of several soils reported in the literature.

Determination of diffusion parameters and activation energy of diffusion in V3Si phase with A15 crystal structure

Diffusion such is the integrated diffusion coefficient of the phase, the tracer diffusion coefficient of species at different temperatures and the activation energy for diffusion, are determined in V3Si phase with A15 crystal structure. The tracer diffusion coefficient of Si Was found to be negligible compared to the tracer diffusion coefficient of V. The calculated diffusion parameters will help to validate the theoretical analysis of defect structure of the phase, which plays an important role in the superconductivity.

Dynamics of a dilute sheared inelastic fluid. I. Hydrodynamic modes and velocity correlation functions

The hydrodynamic modes and the velocity autocorrelation functions for a dilute sheared inelastic fluid are analyzed using an expansion in the parameter epsilon=(1-e)(1/2), where e is the coefficient of restitution. It is shown that the hydrodynamic modes for a sheared inelastic fluid are very different from those for an elastic fluid in the long-wave limit, since energy is not a conserved variable when the wavelength of perturbations is larger than the ``conduction length.'' In an inelastic fluid under shear, there are three coupled modes, the mass and the momenta in the plane of shear, which have a decay rate proportional to k(2/3) in the limit k -> 0, if the wave vector has a component along the flow direction. When the wave vector is aligned along the gradient-vorticity plane, we find that the scaling of the growth rate is similar to that for an elastic fluid. The Fourier transforms of the velocity autocorrelation functions are calculated for a steady shear flow correct to leading order in an expansion in epsilon. The time dependence of the autocorrelation function in the long-time limit is obtained by estimating the integral of the Fourier transform over wave number space. It is found that the autocorrelation functions for the velocity in the flow and gradient directions decay proportional to t(-5/2) in two dimensions and t(-15/4) in three dimensions. In the vorticity direction, the decay of the autocorrelation function is proportional to t(-3) in two dimensions and t(-7/2) in three dimensions.

An Investigation of Friction During Friction Stir Welding of Metallic Materials

The technique of friction stir welding (FSW) puts effective use frictional heat for the purpose of joining metallic materials. In this research article, we present and discuss an experimental method to determine the coefficient of friction during FSW. The experiments were conducted to study the interaction between the FSW tool (a die steel) and the base metal (a high strength aluminum alloy) at various contact pressures (13MPa, 26MPa, and 39MPa) and rotation speeds (200rpm, 600rpm, 1000rpm, and 1400rpm). The experimental results, the microstructure, and the process temperature reveal the experimental setup to be capable of simulating the conditions during FSW. The coefficient of friction was found to vary from 0.15 to 1.4, and the temperature increased to as high as 450C. The coefficient of friction was found to increase with temperature. There exists a critical temperature at which point a steep increase in the coefficient of friction was observed. The critical temperature decreases from 250C at a contact pressure of 26MPa to 200C at contact pressure of 34MPa. Below the critical temperature at a specific contact pressure the maximum coefficient of friction is 0.6, and above the critical temperature it reaches a value as high as 1.4. The steep increase in the coefficient of friction is found to be due to the seizure phenomenon and the contact condition during FSW between the tool and the workpiece (base metal) is found to be sticking.

Influence of friction during forming processes-a study using a numerical simulation technique

Friction has an important influence in metal forming operations, as it contributes to the success or otherwise of the process. In the present investigation, the effect of friction on metal forming was studied by simulating compression tests on cylindrical Al-Mg alloy using the finite element method (FEM) technique. Three kinds of compression tests were considered wherein a constant coefficient of friction was employed at the upper die-work-piece interface. However, the coefficient of friction between the lower die-work-piece interfaces was varied in the tests. The simulation results showed that a difference in metal flow occurs near the interfaces owing to the differences in the coefficient of friction. It was concluded that the variations in the coefficient of friction between the dies and the work-piece directly affect the stress distribution and shape of the work-piece, having implications on the microstructure of the material being processed.

Studies On Friction And Formation Of Transfer Layer In Hcp Metals

Surface texture plays an important role in the frictional behavior and transfer layer formation of contacting surfaces. In the present investigation, basic experiments were conducted using an inclined pin-on-plate sliding apparatus to better understand the role of surface texture on the coefficient of friction and the formation of a transfer layer. In the experiments, soft HCP materials such as pure Mg and pure Zn were used for the pins and a hardened 080 M40 steel was used for the plate. Two surface parameters of the steel plates—roughness and texture—were varied in tests that were conducted at a sliding speed of 2 mm/s in ambient conditions under both dry and lubricated conditions. The morphologies of the worn surfaces of the pins and the formation of the transfer layer on the counter surfaces were observed using a scanning electron microscope. In the experiments, the occurrence of stick-slip motion, the formation of a transfer layer, and the value of friction were recorded. With respect to the friction, both adhesion and plowing components were analyzed. Based on the experimental results, the effect of surface texture on the friction was attributed to differences in the amount of plowing. Both the plowing component of friction and the amplitude of stick-slip motion were determined to increase surface textures that promote plane strain conditions and decrease the textures that favor plane stress conditions.