Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

Nutritional status and dietary intake of acute care patients : results from the Nutrition Care Day Survey 2010

Background & aims: One aim of the Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey was to determine the nutritional status and dietary intake of acute care hospital patients. Methods: Dietitians from 56 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand completed a 24-h survey of nutritional status and dietary intake of adult hospitalised patients. Nutritional risk was evaluated using the Malnutrition Screening Tool. Participants ‘at risk’ underwent nutritional assessment using Subjective Global Assessment. Based on the International Classification of Diseases (Australian modification), participants were also deemed malnourished if their body mass index was <18.5 kg/m2. Dietitians recorded participants’ dietary intake at each main meal and snacks as 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of that offered. Results: 3122 patients (mean age: 64.6 ± 18 years) participated in the study. Forty-one percent of the participants were “at risk” of malnutrition. Overall malnutrition prevalence was 32%. Fifty-five percent of malnourished participants and 35% of well-nourished participants consumed ≤50% of the food during the 24-h audit. “Not hungry” was the most common reason for not consuming everything offered during the audit. Conclusion: Malnutrition and sub-optimal food intake is prevalent in acute care patients across hospitals in Australia and New Zealand and warrants appropriate interventions.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Heritability and genome-wide linkage analysis of migraine in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island

Migraine is a common neurovascular disorder with a complex envirogenomic aetiology. In an effort to identify migraine susceptibility genes, we conducted a study of the isolated population of Norfolk Island, Australia. A large portion of the permanent inhabitants of Norfolk Island are descended from 18th Century English sailors involved in the infamous mutiny on the Bounty and their Polynesian consorts. In total, 600 subjects were recruited including a large pedigree of 377 individuals with lineage to the founders. All individuals were phenotyped for migraine using International Classification of Headache Disorders-II criterion. All subjects were genotyped for a genome-wide panel of microsatellite markers. Genotype and phenotype data for the pedigree were analysed using heritability and linkage methods implemented in the programme SOLAR. Follow-up association analysis was performed using the CLUMP programme. A total of 154 migraine cases (25%) were identified indicating the Norfolk Island population is high-risk for migraine. Heritability estimation of the 377-member pedigree indicated a significant genetic component for migraine (h2 = 0.53, P = 0.016). Linkage analysis showed peaks on chromosome 13q33.1 (P = 0.003) and chromosome 9q22.32 (P = 0.008). Association analysis of the key microsatellites in the remaining 223 unrelated Norfolk Island individuals showed evidence of association, which strengthen support for the linkage findings (P ≤ 0.05). In conclusion, a genome-wide linkage analysis and follow-up association analysis of migraine in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island provided evidence for migraine susceptibility loci on chromosomes 9q22.22 and 13q33.1.

Improving the detection of donations within the RHD negative blood donor panel which weakly express the RHD antigen

This project improved the detection and classification of very weakly expressed RhD variants in the Australian blood donor panel and contributed to the knowledge of anti-D reactivity patterns of RHD alleles that are undescribed. As such, the management of donations possessing these RHD alleles can be improved upon and the overall safety of transfusion medicine pertaining to the Rh blood group system will be increased. Future projects at ARCBS will be able to utilise the procedures developed in this project, thereby decreasing throughput time. The specificity of current testing will be improved and the need for outsourced RHD testing diminished.

Nephrotoxicity and nephrocarcinogenicity of dinitrotoluene : new aspects to be considered

Technical dinitrotoluene (DNT) is a mixture of 2,4- and 2,6-DNT. In humans, industrial or environmental exposure can occur orally, by inhalation, or by skin contact. The classification of DNT as an 'animal carcinogen' is based on the formation of malignant tumors in kidneys, liver, and mammary glands of rats and mice. Clear signs of toxic nephropathy were found in rats dosed with DNT, and the concept was derived of an interrelation between renal toxicity and carcinogenicity. Recent data point to the carcinogenicity of DNT on the urinary tract of exposed humans. Between 1984 and 1997, 6 cases of urothelial cancer and 14 cases of renal cell cancer were diagnosed in a group of 500 underground mining workers in the copper mining industry of the former GDR and having high exposures to explosives containing technical DNT. The incidences of both urothelial and renal cell tumors in this group were 4.5 and 14.3 times higher, respectively, than anticipated on the basis of the cancer registers of the GDR. The genotyping of all identified tumor patients for the polymorphic enzymes NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 identified the urothelial tumor cases as exclusively 'slow acetylates'. A group of 161 miners highly exposed to DNT was investigated for signs of subclinical renal damage. The exposures were categorized semi-quantitatively into 'low', 'medium', 'high', and 'very high'. A straight dose-dependence of the excretion of urinary biomarker proteins with the ranking of exposure was seen. Biomarker excretion (alpha1-microglobulin, glutathione S-transferases alpha and pi) indicated that DNT-induced damage was directed toward the tubular system. New data on DNT-exposed humans appear consistent with the concept of cancer initiation by DNT isomers and the subsequent promotion of renal carcinogenesis by selective damage to the proximal tubule. The differential pathways of metabolic activation of DNT appear to apply to the proximal tubule of the kidney and to the urothelium of the renal pelvis and lower urinary tract as target tissues of carcinogenicity.

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Bayesian computational methods for spatial analysis of images

This thesis introduces a new way of using prior information in a spatial model and develops scalable algorithms for fitting this model to large imaging datasets. These methods are employed for image-guided radiation therapy and satellite based classification of land use and water quality. This study has utilized a pre-computation step to achieve a hundredfold improvement in the elapsed runtime for model fitting. This makes it much more feasible to apply these models to real-world problems, and enables full Bayesian inference for images with a million or more pixels.

Integration over song classification replicates: song variant analysis in the hihi

Human expert analyses are commonly used in bioacoustic studies and can potentially limit the reproducibility of these results. In this paper, a machine learning method is presented to statistically classify avian vocalizations. Automated approaches were applied to isolate bird songs from long field recordings, assess song similarities, and classify songs into distinct variants. Because no positive controls were available to assess the true classification of variants, multiple replicates of automatic classification of song variants were analyzed to investigate clustering uncertainty. The automatic classifications were more similar to the expert classifications than expected by chance. Application of these methods demonstrated the presence of discrete song variants in an island population of the New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta). The geographic patterns of song variation were then revealed by integrating over classification replicates. Because this automated approach considers variation in song variant classification, it reduces potential human bias and facilitates the reproducibility of the results.

Structure matters: Adoption of structured classification Approach in the context of cognitive presence classification

Within online learning communities, receiving timely and meaningful insights into the quality of learning activities is an important part of an effective educational experience. Commonly adopted methods – such as the Community of Inquiry framework – rely on manual coding of online discussion transcripts, which is a costly and time consuming process. There are several efforts underway to enable the automated classification of online discussion messages using supervised machine learning, which would enable the real-time analysis of interactions occurring within online learning communities. This paper investigates the importance of incorporating features that utilise the structure of on-line discussions for the classification of "cognitive presence" – the central dimension of the Community of Inquiry framework focusing on the quality of students' critical thinking within online learning communities. We implemented a Conditional Random Field classification solution, which incorporates structural features that may be useful in increasing classification performance over other implementations. Our approach leads to an improvement in classification accuracy of 5.8% over current existing techniques when tested on the same dataset, with a precision and recall of 0.630 and 0.504 respectively.

A hierarchical system of learning automata that can learn die globally optimal path

Systems of learning automata have been studied by various researchers to evolve useful strategies for decision making under uncertainity. Considered in this paper are a class of hierarchical systems of learning automata where the system gets responses from its environment at each level of the hierarchy. A classification of such sequential learning tasks based on the complexity of the learning problem is presented. It is shown that none of the existing algorithms can perform in the most general type of hierarchical problem. An algorithm for learning the globally optimal path in this general setting is presented, and its convergence is established. This algorithm needs information transfer from the lower levels to the higher levels. Using the methodology of estimator algorithms, this model can be generalized to accommodate other kinds of hierarchical learning tasks.

Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic approach

This paper presents the site classification of Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area using geophysical data and the evaluation of spectral acceleration at ground level using probabilistic approach. Site classification has been carried out using experimental data from the shallow geophysical method of Multichannel Analysis of Surface wave (MASW). One-dimensional (1-D) MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and respective velocity profiles are obtained. The average shear wave velocity for 30 m depth (Vs(30)) has been calculated and is used for the site classification of the BMP area as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program). Based on the Vs(30) values major part of the BMP area can be classified as ``site class D'', and ``site class C'. A smaller portion of the study area, in and around Lalbagh Park, is classified as ``site class B''. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to map the seismic hazard in terms spectral acceleration (S-a) at rock and the ground level considering the site classes and six seismogenic sources identified. The mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for S. have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of spectral acceleration for short period and long period are mapped for rock, site class C and D with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km. In addition to this, the Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at surface level has been developed for the 5% damping and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock, site class C and D These spectral acceleration and uniform hazard spectrums can be used to assess the design force for important structures and also to develop the design spectrum.

Porn, censorship, classification and free speech: Global paradoxes in the governance of media content

In this presentation, I reflect upon the global landscape surrounding the governance and classification of media content, at a time of rapid change in media platforms and services for content production and distribution, and contested cultural and social norms. I discuss the tensions and contradictions arising in the relationship between national, regional and global dimensions of media content distribution, as well as the changing relationships between state and non-state actors. These issues will be explored through consideration of issues such as: recent debates over film censorship; the review of the National Classification Scheme conducted by the Australian Law Reform Commission; online controversies such as the future of the Reddit social media site; and videos posted online by the militant group ISIS.

The validity of the GENEActiv wrist-worn accelerometer for measuring adult sedentary time in free living

OBJECTIVES Based on self-reported measures, sedentary time has been associated with chronic disease and mortality. This study examined the validity of the wrist-worn GENEactiv accelerometer for measuring sedentary time (i.e. sitting and lying) by posture classification, during waking hours in free living adults. DESIGN Fifty-seven participants (age=18-55 years 52% male) were recruited using convenience sampling from a large metropolitan Australian university. METHODS Participants wore a GENEActiv accelerometer on their non-dominant wrist and an activPAL device attached to their right thigh for 24-h (00:00 to 23:59:59). Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to examine the convergent validity of the GENEActiv and the activPAL for estimating total sedentary time during waking hours. Agreement was illustrated using Bland and Altman plots, and intra-individual agreement for posture was assessed with the Kappa statistic. RESULTS Estimates of average total sedentary time over 24-h were 623 (SD 103) min/day from the GENEActiv, and 626 (SD 123) min/day from the activPAL, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient of 0.80 (95% confidence intervals 0.68-0.88). Bland and Altman plots showed slight underestimation of mean total sedentary time for GENEActiv relative to activPAL (mean difference: -3.44min/day), with moderate limits of agreement (-144 to 137min/day). Mean Kappa for posture was 0.53 (SD 0.12), indicating moderate agreement for this sample at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS The estimation of sedentary time by posture classification of the wrist-worn GENEActiv accelerometer was comparable to the activPAL. The GENEActiv may provide an alternative, easy to wear device based measure for descriptive estimates of sedentary time in population samples