917 resultados para C51 - Model Construction and Estimation


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Earlier research developed theoretically-based aggregate metrics for technology strategy and used them to analyze California bridge construction firms (Hampson, 1993). Determinants of firm performance, including trend in contract awards, market share and contract awards per employee, were used as indicators for competitive performance. The results of this research were a series of refined theoretically-based measures for technology strategy and a demonstrated positive relationship between technology strategy and competitive performance within the bridge construction sector. This research showed that three technology strategy dimensions—competitive positioning, depth of technology strategy, and organizational fit— show very strong correlation with the competitive performance indicators of absolute growth in contract awards, and contract awards per employee. Both researchers and industry professionals need improved understanding of how technology affects results, and how to better target investments to improve competitive performance in particular industry sectors. This paper builds on the previous research findings by evaluating the strategic fit of firms' approach to technology with industry segment characteristics. It begins with a brief overview of the background regarding technology strategy. The major sections of the paper describe niches and firms in an example infrastructure construction market, analyze appropriate technology strategies, and describe managerial actions to implement these strategies and support the business objectives of the firm.

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The functional properties of cartilaginous tissues are determined predominantly by the content, distribution, and organization of proteoglycan and collagen in the extracellular matrix. Extracellular matrix accumulates in tissue-engineered cartilage constructs by metabolism and transport of matrix molecules, processes that are modulated by physical and chemical factors. Constructs incubated under free-swelling conditions with freely permeable or highly permeable membranes exhibit symmetric surface regions of soft tissue. The variation in tissue properties with depth from the surfaces suggests the hypothesis that the transport processes mediated by the boundary conditions govern the distribution of proteoglycan in such constructs. A continuum model (DiMicco and Sah in Transport Porus Med 50:57-73, 2003) was extended to test the effects of membrane permeability and perfusion on proteoglycan accumulation in tissue-engineered cartilage. The concentrations of soluble, bound, and degraded proteoglycan were analyzed as functions of time, space, and non-dimensional parameters for several experimental configurations. The results of the model suggest that the boundary condition at the membrane surface and the rate of perfusion, described by non-dimensional parameters, are important determinants of the pattern of proteoglycan accumulation. With perfusion, the proteoglycan profile is skewed, and decreases or increases in magnitude depending on the level of flow-based stimulation. Utilization of a semi-permeable membrane with or without unidirectional flow may lead to tissues with depth-increasing proteoglycan content, resembling native articular cartilage.

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Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

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The contributions of this thesis fall into three areas of certificateless cryptography. The first area is encryption, where we propose new constructions for both identity-based and certificateless cryptography. We construct an n-out-of- n group encryption scheme for identity-based cryptography that does not require any special means to generate the keys of the trusted authorities that are participating. We also introduce a new security definition for chosen ciphertext secure multi-key encryption. We prove that our construction is secure as long as at least one authority is uncompromised, and show that the existing constructions for chosen ciphertext security from identity-based encryption also hold in the group encryption case. We then consider certificateless encryption as the special case of 2-out-of-2 group encryption and give constructions for highly efficient certificateless schemes in the standard model. Among these is the first construction of a lattice-based certificateless encryption scheme. Our next contribution is a highly efficient certificateless key encapsulation mechanism (KEM), that we prove secure in the standard model. We introduce a new way of proving the security of certificateless schemes based that are based on identity-based schemes. We leave the identity-based part of the proof intact, and just extend it to cover the part that is introduced by the certificateless scheme. We show that our construction is more efficient than any instanciation of generic constructions for certificateless key encapsulation in the standard model. The third area where the thesis contributes to the advancement of certificateless cryptography is key agreement. Swanson showed that many certificateless key agreement schemes are insecure if considered in a reasonable security model. We propose the first provably secure certificateless key agreement schemes in the strongest model for certificateless key agreement. We extend Swanson's definition for certificateless key agreement and give more power to the adversary. Our new schemes are secure as long as each party has at least one uncompromised secret. Our first construction is in the random oracle model and gives the adversary slightly more capabilities than our second construction in the standard model. Interestingly, our standard model construction is as efficient as the random oracle model construction.

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In this paper we describe a body of work aimed at extending the reach of mobile navigation and mapping. We describe how running topological and metric mapping and pose estimation processes concurrently, using vision and laser ranging, has produced a full six-degree-of-freedom outdoor navigation system. It is capable of producing intricate three-dimensional maps over many kilometers and in real time. We consider issues concerning the intrinsic quality of the built maps and describe our progress towards adding semantic labels to maps via scene de-construction and labeling. We show how our choices of representation, inference methods and use of both topological and metric techniques naturally allow us to fuse maps built from multiple sessions with no need for manual frame alignment or data association.

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The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

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This article examines shifts in educational and social governance taking place in Queensland, Australia, through Industry School Engagement Strategy of Education Queensland and its Gateway Schools program. This significant educational initiative is set within the context of the social investment agenda first articulated in the education policy framework, Queensland State Education-2010. The article traces the historic extension of this governmental strategy through establishment of the Gateway Schools concept that brokers industry-school partnerships with global players in the Queensland economy. Industry sectors forming the partnerships include Minerals and Energy, Aerospace, Wine Tourism, Agribusiness, Manufacturing and Engineering, Building and Construction and ICT. We argue that this ‘post-bureaucratic’ model of schooling represents a new social settlement of neoliberal governance, in which educational outcomes align with economic objectives, and frame the conditions for community self-governance.

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Vehicle emitted particles are of significant concern based on their potential to influence local air quality and human health. Transport microenvironments usually contain higher vehicle emission concentrations compared to other environments, and people spend a substantial amount of time in these microenvironments when commuting. Currently there is limited scientific knowledge on particle concentration, passenger exposure and the distribution of vehicle emissions in transport microenvironments, partially due to the fact that the instrumentation required to conduct such measurements is not available in many research centres. Information on passenger waiting time and location in such microenvironments has also not been investigated, which makes it difficult to evaluate a passenger’s spatial-temporal exposure to vehicle emissions. Furthermore, current emission models are incapable of rapidly predicting emission distribution, given the complexity of variations in emission rates that result from changes in driving conditions, as well as the time spent in driving condition within the transport microenvironment. In order to address these scientific gaps in knowledge, this work conducted, for the first time, a comprehensive statistical analysis of experimental data, along with multi-parameter assessment, exposure evaluation and comparison, and emission model development and application, in relation to traffic interrupted transport microenvironments. The work aimed to quantify and characterise particle emissions and human exposure in the transport microenvironments, with bus stations and a pedestrian crossing identified as suitable research locations representing a typical transport microenvironment. Firstly, two bus stations in Brisbane, Australia, with different designs, were selected to conduct measurements of particle number size distributions, particle number and PM2.5 concentrations during two different seasons. Simultaneous traffic and meteorological parameters were also monitored, aiming to quantify particle characteristics and investigate the impact of bus flow rate, station design and meteorological conditions on particle characteristics at stations. The results showed higher concentrations of PN20-30 at the station situated in an open area (open station), which is likely to be attributed to the lower average daily temperature compared to the station with a canyon structure (canyon station). During precipitation events, it was found that particle number concentration in the size range 25-250 nm decreased greatly, and that the average daily reduction in PM2.5 concentration on rainy days compared to fine days was 44.2 % and 22.6 % at the open and canyon station, respectively. The effect of ambient wind speeds on particle number concentrations was also examined, and no relationship was found between particle number concentration and wind speed for the entire measurement period. In addition, 33 pairs of average half-hourly PN7-3000 concentrations were calculated and identified at the two stations, during the same time of a day, and with the same ambient wind speeds and precipitation conditions. The results of a paired t-test showed that the average half-hourly PN7-3000 concentrations at the two stations were not significantly different at the 5% confidence level (t = 0.06, p = 0.96), which indicates that the different station designs were not a crucial factor for influencing PN7-3000 concentrations. A further assessment of passenger exposure to bus emissions on a platform was evaluated at another bus station in Brisbane, Australia. The sampling was conducted over seven weekdays to investigate spatial-temporal variations in size-fractionated particle number and PM2.5 concentrations, as well as human exposure on the platform. For the whole day, the average PN13-800 concentration was 1.3 x 104 and 1.0 x 104 particle/cm3 at the centre and end of the platform, respectively, of which PN50-100 accounted for the largest proportion to the total count. Furthermore, the contribution of exposure at the bus station to the overall daily exposure was assessed using two assumed scenarios of a school student and an office worker. It was found that, although the daily time fraction (the percentage of time spend at a location in a whole day) at the station was only 0.8 %, the daily exposure fractions (the percentage of exposures at a location accounting for the daily exposure) at the station were 2.7% and 2.8 % for exposure to PN13-800 and 2.7% and 3.5% for exposure to PM2.5 for the school student and the office worker, respectively. A new parameter, “exposure intensity” (the ratio of daily exposure fraction and the daily time fraction) was also defined and calculated at the station, with values of 3.3 and 3.4 for exposure to PN13-880, and 3.3 and 4.2 for exposure to PM2.5, for the school student and the office worker, respectively. In order to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations and define the emission distribution in further dispersion models for traffic interrupted transport microenvironments, a composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. This model does not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bidirectional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. The CLSE model was also applied at a signalled pedestrian crossing, in order to assess increased particle number emissions from motor vehicles when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. The CLSE model was used to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses including 1 car travelling in 1 direction (/1 direction), 14 cars / 1 direction, 1 bus / 1 direction, 28 cars / 2 directions, 24 cars and 2 buses / 2 directions, and 20 cars and 4 buses / 2 directions. It was found that the total emissions produced during stopping on a red signal were significantly higher than when the traffic moved at a steady speed. Overall, total emissions due to the interruption of the traffic increased by a factor of 13, 11, 45, 11, 41, and 43 for the above 6 cases, respectively. In summary, this PhD thesis presents the results of a comprehensive study on particle number and mass concentration, together with particle size distribution, in a bus station transport microenvironment, influenced by bus flow rates, meteorological conditions and station design. Passenger spatial-temporal exposure to bus emitted particles was also assessed according to waiting time and location along the platform, as well as the contribution of exposure at the bus station to overall daily exposure. Due to the complexity of the interrupted traffic flow within the transport microenvironments, a unique CLSE model was also developed, which is capable of quantifying emission levels at critical locations within the transport microenvironment, for the purpose of evaluating passenger exposure and conducting simulations of vehicle emission dispersion. The application of the CLSE model at a pedestrian crossing also proved its applicability and simplicity for use in a real-world transport microenvironment.

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The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

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In Mango Boulevard Pty Ltd v Spencer [2010] QCA 207, a self-executing order had been made in consequence of continuing default by parties to the proceedings in meeting their disclosure obligations. The case involved several questions about the construction and implications of the self-executing order. This note focuses on the aspects of the case relating to that order.

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The purpose of this paper is to study the profiling of property, plant and equipment (PPE) contributions in Australia and Malaysia construction companies. A company’s worth is usually based on the listed share price on the stock exchange. In arriving at the net profit, the contribution of PPE in the company’s assets is somehow being neglected. This paper will investigate the followings; firstly the level of PPE contribution in the construction firms by comparing the PPE contributions to the company’s asset as a whole which includes fixed (non-current) assets and current assets. This will determine the true strength of the companies, rather than relying on the share prices alone. Secondly, the paper will determine the trend of company’s asset ownership to show the company’s performance of the PPE ownership during the period of study. The data is based on the selected construction companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and Malaysian Stock Exchange, known as Bursa Malaysia. The profiling will help to determine the strength of the construction firms based on the PPE holding, and the level of PPE ownerships in the two countries construction firms during the period of study.

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Discovering factors that help or impede business model change is an important quest, both for researchers and practitioners. In this study we present preliminary findings based on the CAUSEE survey of young and nascent firms in Australia. In particular, we seek to determine an association between business model adaptation and external orientation among young and nascent firms within the random sample and amongst an oversample of high potential firms. The concept of external orientation is made operational by asking respondents whether, and to what extent, they rely on certain sources of advice and information. We find that high potential firms are more likely to have made at least some change to their business model, that greater use of external sources of advice is generally significantly associated with business model adaptation, but also that there appear to be different patterns of behaviour between the random sample and the over sample.

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The method on concurrent multi-scale model of structural behavior (CMSM-of-SB) for the purpose of structural health monitoring including model updating and validating has been studied. The detailed process of model updating and validating is discussed in terms of reduced scale specimen of the steel box girder in longitudinal stiffening truss of a long span bridge. Firstly, some influence factors affecting the accuracy of the CMSM-of-SB including the boundary restraint regidity, the geometry and material parameters on the toe of the weld and its neighbor are analyzed using sensitivity method. Then, sensitivity-based model updating technology is adopted to update the developed CMSM-of-SB and model verification is carried out through calculating and comparing stresses on different locations under various loading from dynamic characteristic and static response. It can be concluded that the CMSM-of-SB based on the substructure method is valid.

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The goal of this research project is to develop specific BIM objects for temporary construction activities which are fully integrated with object design, construction efficiency and safety parameters. Specifically, the project will deliver modularised electronic scaffolding and formwork objects that will allow designers to easily incorporate them into BIM models to facilitate smarter and safer infrastructure and building construction. This research first identified there is currently a distinct lack of BIM objects for temporary construction works resulting in productivity loss during design and construction, and opportunities for improved consideration of safety standards and practices with the design of scaffolding and formwork. This is particularly relevant in Australia, given the “harmonisation” of OHS legislation across all states and territories from 1 January 2012, meaning that enhancements to Queensland practices will have direct application across Australia. Thus, in conjunction with government and industry partners in Queensland, Australia, the research team developed a strategic three-phase research methodology: (1) the preliminary review phase on industrial scaffolding and formwork practices and BIM implementation; (2) the BIM object development phase with specific safety and productivity functions; and (3) the Queensland-wide workshop phase for product dissemination and training. This paper discusses background review findings, details of the developed methodology, and expected research outcomes and their contributions to the Australian construction industry.

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Partnering has drawn attention from both academics and practitioners in the construction industry in the context of construction and facilities management. The past decades have seen a number of articles reporting the application of partnering in construction. The Chinese construction industry is one of the largest industries in the world; however, to the authors’ best knowledge, no project in mainland China has adopted this procurement approach in a formal and systematic manner as yet. This study employed a qualitative approach to investigate the factors that support or impede the implementation of partnering in mainland China. The findings indicate that the partnering practice is feasible in the construction industry of China due to the large demand brought about by China’s strong economic growth and government support. However, the implementation of partnering in the Chinese construction industry is being impeded by the restrictions of the current Chinese regulatory framework and tender evaluation framework, the incompatible features of Chinese culture and the general lack of trust. Six strategies that help to facilitate the implementation of partnering in China have been developed. This study offers a useful reference to implement collaborative contracting models such as partnering in developing countries.