Evaluation of Pareto/D/1/k Queue by Simulation

The finding that Pareto distributions are adequate to model Internet packet interarrival times has motivated the proposal of methods to evaluate steady-state performance measures of Pareto/D/1/k queues. Some limited analytical derivation for queue models has been proposed in the literature, but their solutions are often of a great mathematical challenge. To overcome such limitations, simulation tools that can deal with general queueing system must be developed. Despite certain limitations, simulation algorithms provide a mechanism to obtain insight and good numerical approximation to parameters of queues. In this work, we give an overview of some of these methods and compare them with our simulation approach, which are suited to solve queues with Generalized-Pareto interarrival time distributions. The paper discusses the properties and use of the Pareto distribution. We propose a real time trace simulation model for estimating the steady-state probability showing the tail-raising effect, loss probability, delay of the Pareto/D/1/k queue and make a comparison with M/D/1/k. The background on Internet traffic will help to do the evaluation correctly. This model can be used to study the long- tailed queueing systems. We close the paper with some general comments and offer thoughts about future work.

Densities with Spherical Level Sets in the Gauss-exponential Domain

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F05, 60B10.

Upper and Lower Bounds for Ruin Probability

In this note we discuss upper and lower bound for the ruin probability in an insurance model with very heavy-tailed claims and interarrival times.

Minimum Description Length Principle in Discriminating Marginal Distributions

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 94A17, 62B10, 62F03.

Progesterone release from a silicone intravaginal ring in pigtailed macaques

Background: Heterosexual HIV transmission continues to spread worldwide. Intravaginal rings (IVRs) formulated with antiretroviral drugs hold great promise for HIV prevention in women. IVRs provide the benefit of being coitally-independent and coitally-covert for an extended period. As a proof-of-concept, we tested the in vivo release of progesterone from a silicone elastomer vaginal ring device. Methods: Six female pig-tailed macaques were treated with a GnRH agonist (Lupron) prior to ring placement. Four macaques received a progesterone-loaded silicone ring, and two macaques received a blank silicone ring. Blood, vaginal swabs, CVL, and/or biopsies were collected during ring placement, and after ring removal. Results: The median plasma progesterone levels for macaques with a progesterone IVR were 13,973 pg/ml (day 3), 12,342 pg/ml (day 7), 10,112 pg/ml (day 14), 8445 pg/ml (day 21) and 8061 pg/ml (day 28), with a significant decrease from day 14 to day 21 (P = 0.0286). The median plasma progesterone levels for macaques with a blank IVR were 221±±± ±±88 pg/ml. Macaques with a progesterone IVR had CVL progesterone levels of 20,935 pg/ml (day 7), 6892 pg/ml (day 21) and 11,515 pg/ml (day 28). Macaques with a blank IVR had CVL progesterone levels of 29 �± 13 pg/ml. There were no disturbances to the normal vaginal microflora, and plasma and CVL cytokine analysis did not indicate a proinflammatory response due to ring placement. The vaginal biopsies did not display any pathology following ring removal. Overall, the IVRs were well tolerated without any indication of inflammation or significant changes in the vaginal compartment.

Quality of the written information about suicide attempters

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was to assess the quality of the clinical records of the patients who are seen in public hospitals in Madrid after a suicide attempt in a blind observation. METHODS: Observational, descriptive cross-sectional study conducted at four general public hospitals in Madrid (Spain). Analyses of the presence of seven indicators of information quality (previous psychiatric treatment, recent suicidal ideation, recent suicide planning behaviour, medical lethality of suicide attempt, previous suicide attempts, attitude towards the attempt, and social or family support) in 993 clinical records of 907 patients (64.5% women), ages ranging from 6 to 92 years (mean 37.1±15), admitted to hospital after a suicide attempt or who committed an attempt whilst in hospital. RESULTS: Of patients who attempted suicide, 94.9% received a psychosocial assessment. All seven indicators were documented in 22.5% of the records, whilst 23.6% recorded four or less than four indicators. Previous suicide attempts and medical lethality of current attempt were the indicators most often missed in the records. The study found no difference between the records of men and women (z=0.296; p=0.767, two tailed Mann-Whitney U test), although clinical records of patients discharged after an emergency unit intervention were more incomplete than the ones from hospitalised patients (z=2.731; p=0.006), and clinical records of repeaters were also more incomplete than the ones from non-repeaters (z=3.511; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical records of patients who have attempted suicide are not complete. The use of semi-structured screening instruments may improve the evaluation of patients who have self- harmed.

Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

Otimização de parâmetros mecânicos e microestruturais dos moldes em areia de sílica ligados quimicamente pelo processo de cura a frio em fundição de aço

Surface defects on steel parts borne costs of smelting industries due to the need of rework. Sand molds are frequently used in foundry industries and largely responsible for providing surface defects. This study aims to optimize the levels of the molding process variables to minimize the occurrence of surface defects in steel castings in silica sand molds chemically linked by cold cure process. The methodology used the experimental design with split plot, being considered in the study the resin percentage factors in the mold formulation, addition of iron oxide, type of paint, the paint application method, amount of ink layers, use of hot air along the lines and waiting time of the mold before casting. They were analyzed as response variables erosion defects, sand inclusion, penetration, porosity and surface finish. Tensile strength tests were performed to evaluate the influence of factors on mechanical parameters and the microstructural parameters were carried out the analysis of X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and thermal analysis (TG / DSC / dilatometry). The results elucidate that for the faulty erosion, the only significant factor with a 95% confidence level was the type of ink and the ink alumina-based superior results obtained. For the sand inclusion of defect, there were three significant factors, with best results obtained with alumina-based paint and spray applied using hot air in the mold before casting the metal. For the defect penetration, there were four significant factors, the best results being achieved with 0.8% of resin and addition of iron oxide in the molding formulation, the paint being applied by brush and standby time of 24 hours before leak. For the defect porosity with a 95% confidence level, no significant factors. For the defect surface finish, the best results were achieved with the 0.8% formulation of the resin in the mold and application of the paint brush. To obtain the levels of the factors that optimize all defects simultaneously, we performed a weighted average of the results of each type of fault, concluding that the best levels of the factors were: 0.8% resin and addition of iron oxide in the formulation of the template, application of two coats of paint applied with a brush or spray, using hot air in the mold before casting and 24 hours of waiting ready the mold before casting. These levels of the optimized factors were used in an experiment to confirm that ratified the results, helping to reduce rework and consequently reducing costs of cast steel parts.

Location and ages of terrestrial peatlands located on continental shelves and in coastal sediments

This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

Relação entre a cárie precoce da infância com o índice de Apgar e outros fatores de risco

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the association of early childhood caries (ECC) with the Apgar score (AS) and other variables related to the child (conditions at birth and medical history) and related to the child and parents and / or guardians and family (demographic, socioeconomic and behavioral). One hundred and twenty healthy children aged between 3-5 years-old treated by Pediatric Dentistry Area of Dentistry College of the Federal University of Uberlandia during 2015 were selected. To obtain qualitative and quantitative variables a questionnaire was applied as an interview to the parents and/or guardians. The 5-minute AS (interest exposure) was obtained through the record in the Child Health Handbook. To assess the prevalence of caries (clinical dependent variable), a single calibrated researcher conducted the clinical examination, according to the criteria of the World Health Organization. Caries experience was measured using the indexes dmft and dmfs. The children were classified into three groups, according to age and dmfs index: no caries (NC), with ECC and with severe early childhood caries (S-ECC). Data were tabulated and submitted to statistical analysis using the SPSS software (IBM, Inc, Chicago, Illinois, USA) 17th version. Three logistics models were carried out having the following classifications: NC and ECC, NC and S-ECC, ECC and S-ECC (p<0.05). The overall ECC prevalence, considering children with ECC and S-ECC, was 55,8% (n= 67). The AS was not a statistically significant variable. The child’s age, weaning age and recent hospitalization were variables associated with the ECC prevalence. The age of brush start and the educational level of the mother were variables associated with the S-ECC prevalence. Considering the ECC and the S-ECC groups, the child's age and the beginning of the use of fluoride toothpaste, recent hospitalization, the educational level of the mother and the father's income were associated with the S-ECC prevalence. Considering the methodology employed and the analysis of results, it was concluded that there was no association between the ECC with the AS in healthy children. However, an association was found of ECC and S-ECC with some variables related to birth and to medical history of the child (recent hospitalization), demographic (child’s age), socioeconomic (educational level of the mother and father's income) and behavioral (age of brush start, weaning age and use of fluoride toothpaste) related to children and to the parents and/or guardians.

Formation of sub-7 nm feature size PS-b-P4VP block copolymer structures by solvent vapour process

The nanometer range structure produced by thin films of diblock copolymers makes them a great of interest as templates for the microelectronics industry. We investigated the effect of annealing solvents and/or mixture of the solvents in case of symmetric Poly (styrene-block-4vinylpyridine) (PS-b-P4VP) diblock copolymer to get the desired line patterns. In this paper, we used different molecular weights PS-b-P4VP to demonstrate the scalability of such high χ BCP system which requires precise fine-tuning of interfacial energies achieved by surface treatment and that improves the wetting property, ordering, and minimizes defect densities. Bare Silicon Substrates were also modified with polystyrene brush and ethylene glycol self-assembled monolayer in a simple quick reproducible way. Also, a novel and simple in situ hard mask technique was used to generate sub-7nm Iron oxide nanowires with a high aspect ratio on Silicon substrate, which can be used to develop silicon nanowires post pattern transfer.

Sobre la medalla a Godoy de la Real Sociedad Económica de Amigos del País de Valencia acuñada en 1807. Documentos inéditos

Entre los documentos del archivo de la Real Sociedad Econó-mica de Amigos del País de Valencia (RSEAPV)1, se encuentra un con-junto muy interesante concerniente a la realización de una medalla por parte de esta sociedad en honor de Manuel Godoy, Príncipe de la Paz. Es en enero de 1807 cuando la RSEAPV decide nombrarlo miembro protector de esa Real Sociedad y, en agradecimiento a su aceptación y su reciente nombramiento al Grande Almirantazgo de España e Yndias, acuña la medalla sobre la cual presento este trabajo. El estudio detallado de los citados documentos nos permitirá ir más allá de las imágenes re-presentadas en el reverso de la misma, proporcionándonos su correcta interpretación dentro del contexto histórico del momento.

Saúde oral e cuidados primários em Odontopediatria

Introdução: A cárie dentária é uma doença multifatorial, infeciosa, transmissível e dependente da dieta, que provoca a desmineralização das estruturas dentárias. Devido a esta natureza etiológica multifatorial é fundamental o aumento da sensibilização e educação das crianças e pais, quer por profissionais de saúde, quer pelos professores em ambiente escolar. A aquisição de hábitos de higiene oral e nutricionais adequados pela criança é um fator imperativo para a manutenção de uma boa saúde oral. Objetivos: Avaliação da Saúde Oral e cuidados primários num grupo de crianças e adolescentes pertencentes ao Agrupamento de Escolas de Alijó. Método: A amostra é constituída por 216 alunos do Agrupamento de Escolas de Alijó, agrupados em três escalões etários: 6-9 anos, 10-14 anos e 15-16 anos. Foi realizada uma observação oral com base no índice de higiene oral simplificado e no índice de cárie (CPOd/cpod- Dentes Cariados, Perdidos e Obturados). Após esta observação foi aplicado um questionário escrito sobre diversos temas relacionados com a saúde oral. Resultados: A percentagem de crianças livres de lesões cariosas aos 6, 12 e 15 anos foi de 33,3%, 28,4% e 16,2%, respetivamente. Os valores da média de número de escovagens diárias aumentam de acordo com a faixa etária. O número de escovagens médias aos 6-9anos, 10-14anos e 15-16anos foi 1,37; 1,48 e 1,55 no sexo masculino, no caso de sexo feminino estes valores passam para 1,58; 1,80 e 1,89 respetivamente. Discussão: Os números registados no presente estudo são semelhantes aos do I Estudo Nacional de Prevalência da Cárie Dentária, onde se verificou percentagens de 33%, 27% e 18,9% para os escalões referentes aos 6 anos, 9 anos e 15 anos. Existe uma melhoria significativa em cada um destes escalões nos dois estudos seguintes realizados pela DGS. Em 2008 estas percentagens foram de 51%, 44% e 28%, respetivamente para cada um dos escalões. Em 2015 existiu apenas um pequeno acréscimo, com percentagens registadas de 54,8%, 53% e 32,4%, respetivamente. A última percentagem, de 32,4%, refere-se neste caso ao escalão dos 18 anos, uma vez que a DGS substituiu o escalão de estudo dos 15 anos de idade. Quando nos referimos ao número de escovagens médio, os números registados neste estudo têm uma evolução semelhante aos encontrados no III Estudo Nacional de Prevalência da Cárie Dentária, publicado em 2015 pela DGS, que refere que aos 6 anos 53% dos inquiridos escova duas vezes ao dia e 25,7% apenas uma vez, enquanto que aos 12 anos nos deparamos com uma descida para 19,9% dos que escovam 1x por dia e um aumento para 69,9% dos que escovam duas vezes. O mesmo estudo afirma ainda que as jovens escovam mais vezes os dentes, tal como no presente estudo. Conclusão: Os últimos anos têm-se revelado determinantes na melhoria da Saúde Oral dos portugueses e a aposta na prevenção, nomeadamente nos Cuidados Primários de Saúde Oral tem apresentado uma mais-valia inquestionável. Como em todos os percursos que se iniciam, a monitorização dos resultados e a sua melhoria contínua podem conduzir à otimização das estratégias e no seu conjunto contribuir para fazer ainda mais e melhor. Este estudo permitiu aferir, que a realidade, em contextos de Saúde Oral, no Concelho de Alijó é preocupante sugerindo que existem assimetrias em Portugal e cabe a todos os intervenientes em Saúde Oral diminuí-las. O envolvimento de cada Médico Dentista neste processo é fundamental.

La manipulation des ressources alimentaires et du risque de prédation afin d’augmenter la vulnérabilité du cerf de Virginie à la chasse

L’utilisation de l’espace par une proie herbivore est souvent modulée par le compromis entre l’acquisition de fourrage et l’évitement de la prédation. Nous avons testé l’effet de la manipulation de la disponibilité de fourrage et du ratio couvert forestier/ouverture sur l’utilisation de l’espace par le cerf de Virginie (Odocoileus virginianus) et sa vulnérabilité à la chasse sportive sur l’île d’Anticosti. Nos résultats ont démontré que l’utilisation de l’espace par le cerf et sa vulnérabilité à la chasse peuvent être modifiées par différentes composantes structurales de l’habitat. L’augmentation de la disponibilité de fourrage a entrainé une plus grande utilisation des prairies fertilisées par le cerf, tandis que la diminution du ratio couvert forestier/ouverture a augmenté sa vulnérabilité à la chasse. Ces résultats procurent des pistes de solutions pour les gestionnaires fauniques qui doivent à la fois réduire les dommages causés par les hautes densités de cerfs et satisfaire les chasseurs en maintenant un nombre élevé d’observation de cerfs.

An investigation of environmental conditions experienced during the life of high-value wood components and products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips (for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in temperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe (including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design.