Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decay of geometry for Fibonacci critical covering maps of the circle

We study the growth of Df `` (f(c)) when f is a Fibonacci critical covering map of the circle with negative Schwarzian derivative, degree d >= 2 and critical point c of order l > 1. As an application we prove that f exhibits exponential decay of geometry if and only if l <= 2, and in this case it has an absolutely continuous invariant probability measure, although not satisfying the so-called Collet-Eckmann condition. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Skew-symmetric identities of octonions

Quadratic alternative superalgebras are introduced and their super-identities and central functions on one odd generator are described. As a corollary, all multilinear skew-symmetric identities and central polynomials of octonions are classified. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An application of lattice basis reduction to polynomial identities for algebraic structures

The authors` recent classification of trilinear operations includes, among other cases, a fourth family of operations with parameter q epsilon Q boolean OR {infinity}, and weakly commutative and weakly anticommutative operations. These operations satisfy polynomial identities in degree 3 and further identities in degree 5. For each operation, using the row canonical form of the expansion matrix E to find the identities in degree 5 gives extremely complicated results. We use lattice basis reduction to simplify these identities: we compute the Hermite normal form H of E(t), obtain a basis of the nullspace lattice from the last rows of a matrix U for which UE(t) = H, and then use the LLL algorithm to reduce the basis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A stronger Dunford-Pettis property

We discuss a strong version of the Dunford-Pettis property, earlier named (DP*) property, which is shared by both l(1) and l(infinity) It is equivalent to the Dunford-Pettis property plus the fact that every quotient map onto c(0) is completely continuous. Other weak sequential continuity results on polynomials and analytic mappings related to the (DP*) property are shown.

Finite-dimensional non-associative algebras and codimension growth

Let A be a (non-necessarily associative) finite-dimensional algebra over a field of characteristic zero. A quantitative estimate of the polynomial identities satisfied by A is achieved through the study of the asymptotics of the sequence of codimensions of A. It is well known that for such an algebra this sequence is exponentially bounded. Here we capture the exponential rate of growth of the sequence of codimensions for several classes of algebras including simple algebras with a special non-degenerate form, finite-dimensional Jordan or alternative algebras and many more. In all cases such rate of growth is integer and is explicitly related to the dimension of a subalgebra of A. One of the main tools of independent interest is the construction in the free non-associative algebra of multialternating polynomials satisfying special properties. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A full family of multimodal maps on the circle

We exhibit a family of trigonometric polynomials inducing a family of 2m-multimodal maps on the circle which contains all relevant dynamical behavior.

UNIFORM APPROXIMATION ON IDEALS OF MULTILINEAR MAPPINGS

For each ideal of multilinear mappings M we explicitly construct a corresponding ideal (a)M such that multilinear forms in (a)M are exactly those which can be approximated, in the uniform norm, by multilinear forms in M. This construction is then applied to finite type, compact, weakly compact and absolutely summing multilinear mappings. It is also proved that the correspondence M bar right arrow (a)M. IS Aron-Berner stability preserving.

Nonhomogeneous subalgebras of Lie and special Jordan superalgebras

We consider polynomial identities satisfied by nonhomogeneous subalgebras of Lie and special Jordan superalgebras: we ignore the grading and regard the superalgebra as an ordinary algebra. The Lie case has been studied by Volichenko and Baranov: they found identities in degrees 3, 4 and 5 which imply all the identities in degrees <= 6. We simplify their identities in degree 5, and show that there are no new identities in degree 7. The Jordan case has not previously been studied: we find identities in degrees 3, 4, 5 and 6 which imply all the identities in degrees <= 6, and demonstrate the existence of further new identities in degree 7. our proofs depend on computer algebra: we use the representation theory of the symmetric group, the Hermite normal form of an integer matrix, the LLL algorithm for lattice basis reduction, and the Chinese remainder theorem. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermo-solvatochromism of merocyanine polarity probes - What are the consequences of increasing probe lipophilicity through annelation?

The question raised in the title has been answered by comparing the solvatochromism of two series of polarity probes, the lipophilicities of which were increased either by increasing the length of an alkyl group (R) attached to a fixed pyridine-based structure or through annelation (i.e., by fusing benzene rings onto a central pyridine-based structure). The following novel solvatochromic probes were synthesized: 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylquinolinium-4-yl)ethenyl]-phenolate (MeQMBr(2)) and 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methyl-acridinium-4- yl) ethenyl)]phenolate (MeAMBr(2) The solvatochromic behavior of these probes, along with that of 2,6dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl]phenol-ate(MePMBr(2)) was analyzed in terms of increasing probe lipophilicity, through annelation. Values of the empirical solvent polarity scale [E(T)(MePMBr(2))] in kcalmol(-1) correlated linearly with ET(30), the corresponding values for the extensively employed probe 2,6-diphenyl-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl)phenolate (RB). On the other hand, the nonlinear correlations of ET(MeQMBr(2)) or ET(MeAMBr(2)) with E(T)(30) are described by second-order polynomials. Possible reasons for this behavior include: i) self-aggregation of the probe, ii) photoinduced cis/trans isomerization of the dye, and iii) probe structure- and solvent-dependent contributions of the quinonoid and zwitterionic limiting formulas to the ground and excited states of the probe. We show that mechanisms (i) and (ii) are not operative under the experimental conditions employed; experimental evidence (NMR) and theoretical calculations are presented to support the conjecture that the length of the central ethenylic bond in the dye increases in the order MeAMBr(2) > MeQMBr(2) > MePMBr(2), That is, the contribution of the zwitterionic limiting formula predominates for the latter probe, as is also the case for RB, this being the reason for the observed linear correlation between the ET(MePMBr2) and the ET(30) scales. The effect of increasing probe lipophilicity on solvatochromic behavior therefore depends on the strategy employed. Increasing the length of R affects solvatochromism much less than annelation, because the former structural change hardly perturbs the energy of the intramolecular charge-transfer transition responsible for solvatochromism. The thermo-solvatochromic behavior (effect of temperature on solvatochromism) of the three probes was studied in mixtures of water with propanol and/or with DMSO. The solvation model used explicitly considers the presence of three ""species"" in the system: bulk solution and probe solvation shell [namely, water (W), organic solvent (Solv)], and solvent-water hydrogen-bonded aggregate (Solv-W). For aqueous propanol, the probe is efficiently solvated by Solv-W; the strong interaction of DMSO with W drastically decreases the efficiency of Solv-W in solvating the probe, relative to its precursor solvents. Temperature increases resulted in desolvation of the probes, due to the concomitant reduction in the structured characters of the components of the binary mixtures.

Nurses' research utilization two years after graduation : a national survey ofassociated individual, organizational, and educational factors

Background. Nurses' research utilization (RU) as part of evidence-based practice is strongly emphasized in today's nursing education and clinical practice. The primary aim of RU is to provide high-quality nursing care to patients. Data on newly graduated nurses' RU are scarce, but a predominance of low use has been reported in recent studies. Factors associated with nurses' RU have previously been identified among individual and organizational/contextual factors, but there is a lack of knowledge about how these factors, including educational ones, interact with each other and with RU, particularly in nurses during the first years after graduation. The purpose of this study was therefore to identify factors that predict the probability for low RU among registered nurses two years after graduation. Methods. Data were collected as part of the LANE study (Longitudinal Analysis of Nursing Education), a Swedish national survey of nursing students and registered nurses. Data on nurses' instrumental, conceptual, and persuasive RU were collected two years after graduation (2007, n = 845), together with data on work contextual factors. Data on individual and educational factors were collected in the first year (2002) and last term of education (2004). Guided by an analytic schedule, bivariate analyses, followed by logistic regression modeling, were applied. Results. Of the variables associated with RU in the bivariate analyses, six were found to be significantly related to low RU in the final logistic regression model: work in the psychiatric setting, role ambiguity, sufficient staffing, low work challenge, being male, and low student activity. Conclusions. A number of factors associated with nurses' low extent of RU two years postgraduation were found, most of them potentially modifiable. These findings illustrate the multitude of factors related to low RU extent and take their interrelationships into account. This knowledge might serve as useful input in planning future studies aiming to improve nurses', specifically newly graduated nurses', RU.

Fatores associados ao controle metabólico em pacientes com diabetes melito tipo 2 não usuários de insulina

Introdução: a obtenção de um bom controle metabólico é essencial para a prevenção das complicações crônicas do Diabetes Melito (DM). O tratamento é complexo e depende da implementação efetiva das diferentes estratégias terapêuticas disponíveis. Para que isso seja possível, é necessário que o paciente entenda os princípios terapêuticos e consiga executá-los. A precária educação em diabetes é percebida como um dos obstáculos para o alcance das metas terapêuticas. Objetivo: analisar, os fatores associados ao controle metabólico, em pacientes com DM tipo 2 (DM2) não usuários de insulina. Métodos: foi realizado um estudo transversal em pacientes com DM2 não usuários de insulina, selecionados ao acaso entre aqueles que consultavam nos ambulatórios de Medicina Interna, Endocrinologia e Enfermagem do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Os pacientes foram submetidos à avaliação clínica, laboratorial e responderam um questionário que incluía o tipo de tratamento realizado para DM, outros medicamentos e co-morbidades, pesquisa de complicações em ano prévio e avaliação do conhecimento sobre DM. Os pacientes foram classificados em dois grupos, com bom ou mau controle glicêmico, de acordo com o valor da glico-hemoglobina de 1 ponto % acima do limite superior do método utilizado. As comparações entre variáveis contínuas, com distribuição normal, foram analisadas pelo teste t de Student para amostras não-pareadas e para as variáveis de distribuição assimétrica ou com variância heterogênea o teste U de Mann-Whitney. A comparação entre percentagem foi feita pelo teste de qui-quadrado ou exato de Fisher. Foi realizada uma análise logística múltipla para identificar os fatores mais relevantes associados ao controle metabólico (variável dependente). As variáveis independentes com um nível de significância de P < 0,1 na análise bivariada, foram incluídas no modelo. Resultados: foram avaliados 143 pacientes com DM2, idade de 59,3 ± 10,1 anos, duração conhecida do DM 7,5 ± 6,3 anos, índice de massa corporal (IMC) de 29,7 ± 5,2 kg/m².Destes, 94 pacientes (65,73%) apresentavam bom controle glicêmico. Os pacientes com mau controle glicêmico usavam mais anti-hiperglicemiantes orais como monoterapia (OR = 9,37; IC = 2,60-33,81; P=0,004) ou associados (OR = 31,08; IC = 7,42-130,15; P < 0,001). Da mesma maneira, não fizeram dieta em dias de festa (OR = 3,29; IC = 1,51-7,16; P = 0,012). A inclusão do conhecimento sobre diabetes não foi diferente entre os pacientes com bom ou mau controle glicêmico (OR = 1,08; IC = 0,97 - 1,21; P = 0,219). A análise multivariada demonstrou que a consulta com a enfermeira educadora (OR = 0,24; IC = 0,108-0,534; P = 0,003), com o endocrinologista (OR = 0,15 ; IC = 0,063-0,373; P = 0,001) e o uso de hipolipemiantes (OR = 0,10; IC = 0,016 - 0,72; P = 0,054) foram associados ao bom controle glicêmico, ajustados para a não realização de dieta em festas, uso de anti-hiperglicemiantes orais e conhecimento sobre diabetes. Conclusão: o controle metabólico em pacientes DM2 é influenciado pelas atividades de educação com enfermeira e endocrinologista. O tratamento do DM2 deve incluir atividades de educação de forma sistemática.

Estimação de regressões aditivas via backfitting e integração marginal: performance em pequenas amostras

Nesta dissertação realizou-se um experimento de Monte Carlo para re- velar algumas características das distribuições em amostras finitas dos estimadores Backfitting (B) e de Integração Marginal(MI) para uma regressão aditiva bivariada. Está-se particularmente interessado em fornecer alguma evidência de como os diferentes métodos de seleção da janela hn, tais co- mo os métodos plug-in, impactam as propriedades em pequenas amostras dos estimadores. Está-se interessado, também, em fornecer evidência do comportamento de diferentes estimadores de hn relativamente a seqüência ótima de hn que minimiza uma função perda escolhida. O impacto de ignorar a dependência entre os regressores na estimação da janela é tam- bém investigado. Esta é uma prática comum e deve ter impacto sobre o desempenho dos estimadores. Além disso, não há nenhuma rotina atual- mente disponível nos pacotes estatísticos/econométricos para a estimação de regressões aditivas via os métodos de Backfitting e Integração Marginal. É um dos objetivos a criação de rotinas em Gauss para a implementação prática destes estimadores. Por fim, diferentemente do que ocorre atual- mente, quando a utilização dos estimadores-B e MI é feita de maneira completamente ad-hoc, há o objetivo de fornecer a usuários informação que permita uma escolha mais objetiva de qual estimador usar quando se está trabalhando com uma amostra finita.

Consumption smoothing in Latin America: an empirical assessment of present value models

The study aims to assess the empirical adherence of the permanent income theory and the consumption smoothing view in Latin America. Two present value models are considered, one describing household behavior and the other open economy macroeconomics. Following the methodology developed in Campbell and Schiller (1987), Bivariate Vector Autoregressions are estimated for the saving ratio and the real growth rate of income concerning the household behavior model and for the current account and the change in national cash ‡ow regarding the open economy model. The countries in the sample are considered separately in the estimation process (individual system estimation) as well as jointly (joint system estimation). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURE) estimates of the coe¢cients are generated. Wald Tests are then conducted to verify if the VAR coe¢cient estimates are in conformity with those predicted by the theory. While the empirical results are sensitive to the estimation method and discount factors used, there is only weak evidence in favor of the permanent income theory and consumption smoothing view in the group of countries analyzed.