899 resultados para Bayesian hierarchical model
Resumo:
O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar as relações entre fatores socioeconômicos, ambientais e biológicos com a hipertensão, segundo gênero. A população estudada foi formada por adultos residentes em dois municípios do Vale do Paraíba (SP), uma das regiões mais pobres do estado de São Paulo. Foi composta por 274 (39,8%) homens e 415 (60,2 %) mulheres. O estudo foi realizado por meio de um modelo de regressão logística hierarquizada, aplicado separadamente para homens e mulheres. Foram estimados os odds ratios ajustados (ORaj), com intervalo de confiança de 95% e a = 0,05. Para os homens, os seguintes fatores de risco estiveram associados à hipertensão: viver na zona rural (ORaj=2,00; p=0,01); etilismo (ORaj= 1,90; p=0,03) e idade acima de 40 anos (ORaj=3,10; p<0,0001). Famílias numerosas, com mais de seis pessoas exerceram efeito protetor (ORaj=0,46; p=0,02). Para mulheres, os fatores de risco associados foram: ausência de escolaridade (ORaj= 2,37; p=0,0003); sedentarismo (ORaj=1,71; p=0,04); obesidade acompanhada de baixa estatura (ORaj= 4,66; p <0,0001) e idade acima de 40 anos ( ORaj=5,29; p=0,01). A obesidade isolada não se associou à hipertensão, nos níveis pressóricos iguais ou maiores do que os correspondentes ao estágio II do padrão de referência.
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In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization
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A desnutrição proteico-energética modifica a resistência à infecção, modificando diversos processos fisiológicos, incluindo a hematopoiese e as funções imunológicas. Neste estudo, avaliamos as concentrações séricas do fator C3 e do Sistema Complemento total (CH50) em um modelo no qual camundongos submetidos à desnutrição proteico-energética são estimulados com lipopolissacarídeo (LPS), e avaliamos a celularidade periférica, medular e esplênica. Camundongos Swiss, machos, adultos, com dois meses de idade foram submetidos ao processo de desnutrição proteica com uma dieta contendo 4% de proteína em comparação aos animais controles com uma dieta contendo 20% de proteína. Quando os animais do grupo desnutrido alcançaram aproximadamente 20% de perda de peso, em relação ao inicial, foram inoculados endovenosamente com LPS. As células do sangue, da medula óssea e do baço foram quantificadas, bem como as concentrações circulantes de C3 e CH50 em animais estimulados com LPS. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram anemia e leucopenia, além de redução significativa da celularidade da medula óssea e do baço. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram menor taxa de sobrevivência, bem como das concentrações do fator C3 do complemento e do complemento total em relação aos animais controles. Estes resultados sugerem que animais desnutridos apresentam uma resposta deficiente aos LPS. A síntese menor do complemento pode ser em parte responsável pela imunodeficiência observada. Estes resultados conduzem-nos a inferir que a desnutrição proteico-energética interfere na ativação da resposta imune
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OBJETIVO: Descrever a freqüência de consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras por adultos e analisar os fatores associados ao seu consumo. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal realizado entre outubro e dezembro de 2003 no município de São Paulo (SP). Foram realizadas entrevistas telefônicas em amostra probabilística da população adulta (>18 anos) residente em domicílios servidos por linhas fixas de telefone, totalizando 1.267 mulheres e 855 homens. A freqüência do consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras foi medida por meio de um roteiro com perguntas curtas e simples. Na avaliação dos fatores associados ao consumo, realizou-se análise de regressão linear multivariada e hierarquizada, com variáveis sociodemográficas no primeiro nível hierárquico, comportamentais no segundo e relacionadas ao padrão alimentar no terceiro nível. RESULTADOS: A freqüência de consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras foi maior entre as mulheres. Para ambos os sexos, verificou-se que a freqüência desse consumo aumentava de acordo com a idade e a escolaridade do indivíduo. Entre mulheres que relataram ter realizado dieta no ano anterior houve maior consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras. O consumo de alimentos que indicam um padrão de consumo não saudável como açúcares e gorduras se mostrou inversamente associado ao consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras em ambos os sexos. CONCLUSÕES: O consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras da população adulta residente em São Paulo foi maior entre as mulheres, sendo influenciado pela idade, escolaridade e dieta
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Background: The cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) is regarded as a model system for tomato genetics due to its short life cycle and miniature size. However, efforts to improve tomato genetic transformation have led to protocols dependent on the costly hormone zeatin, combined with an excessive number of steps. Results: Here we report the development of a MT near-isogenic genotype harboring the allele Rg1 (MT-Rg1), which greatly improves tomato in vitro regeneration. Regeneration was further improved in MT by including a two-day incubation of cotyledonary explants onto medium containing 0.4 mu M 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA) before cytokinin treatment. Both strategies allowed the use of 5 mu M 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP), a cytokinin 100 times less expensive than zeatin. The use of MT-Rg1 and NAA pre-incubation, followed by BAP regeneration, resulted in high transformation frequencies (near 40%), in a shorter protocol with fewer steps, spanning approximately 40 days from Agrobacterium infection to transgenic plant acclimatization. Conclusions: The genetic resource and the protocol presented here represent invaluable tools for routine gene expression manipulation and high throughput functional genomics by insertional mutagenesis in tomato.
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A system of nearest neighbors Kuramoto-like coupled oscillators placed in a ring is studied above the critical synchronization transition. We find a richness of solutions when the coupling increases, which exists only within a solvability region (SR). We also find that the solutions possess different characteristics, depending on the section of the boundary of the SR where they appear. We study the birth of these solutions and how they evolve when the coupling strength increases, and determine the diagram of solutions in phase space.
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A generalized version of the nonequilibrium linear Glauber model with q states in d dimensions is introduced and analyzed. The model is fully symmetric, its dynamics being invariant under all permutations of the q states. Exact expressions for the two-time autocorrelation and response functions on a d-dimensional lattice are obtained. In the stationary regime, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem holds, while in the transient the aging is observed with the fluctuation-dissipation ratio leading to the value predicted for the linear Glauber model.
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In Brazil, the study of pedestrian-induced vibration on footbridges has been undertaken since the early 1990s, for concrete and steel footbridges. However, there are no recorded studies of this kind for timber footbridges. Brazilian code ABNT NBR 7190 (1997) gives design requirements only for static loads in the case of timber footbridges, without considering the serviceability limit state from pedestrian-induced vibrations. The aim of this work is to perform a theoretical dynamic, numerical and experimental analysis on simply-supported timber footbridges, by using a small-scale model developed from a 24 m span and 2 m width timber footbridge, with two main timber beams. Span and width were scaled down (1:4) to 6 m e 0.5 in, respectively. Among the conclusions reached herein, it is emphasized that the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is suitable for calculating the vertical and lateral first natural frequencies in simply-supported timber footbridges; however, special attention should be given to the evaluation of lateral bending stiffness, as it leads to conservative values.
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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.
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The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.
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Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.
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Background: The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plant is both an economically important food crop and an ideal dicot model to investigate various physiological phenomena not possible in Arabidopsis thaliana. Due to the great diversity of tomato cultivars used by the research community, it is often difficult to reliably compare phenotypes. The lack of tomato developmental mutants in a single genetic background prevents the stacking of mutations to facilitate analysis of double and multiple mutants, often required for elucidating developmental pathways. Results: We took advantage of the small size and rapid life cycle of the tomato cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) to create near-isogenic lines (NILs) by introgressing a suite of hormonal and photomorphogenetic mutations (altered sensitivity or endogenous levels of auxin, ethylene, abscisic acid, gibberellin, brassinosteroid, and light response) into this genetic background. To demonstrate the usefulness of this collection, we compared developmental traits between the produced NILs. All expected mutant phenotypes were expressed in the NILs. We also created NILs harboring the wild type alleles for dwarf, self-pruning and uniform fruit, which are mutations characteristic of MT. This amplified both the applications of the mutant collection presented here and of MT as a genetic model system. Conclusions: The community resource presented here is a useful toolkit for plant research, particularly for future studies in plant development, which will require the simultaneous observation of the effect of various hormones, signaling pathways and crosstalk.
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Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.
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Macro- and microarrays are well-established technologies to determine gene functions through repeated measurements of transcript abundance. We constructed a chicken skeletal muscle-associated array based on a muscle-specific EST database, which was used to generate a tissue expression dataset of similar to 4500 chicken genes across 5 adult tissues (skeletal muscle, heart, liver, brain, and skin). Only a small number of ESTs were sufficiently well characterized by BLAST searches to determine their probable cellular functions. Evidence of a particular tissue-characteristic expression can be considered an indication that the transcript is likely to be functionally significant. The skeletal muscle macroarray platform was first used to search for evidence of tissue-specific expression, focusing on the biological function of genes/transcripts, since gene expression profiles generated across tissues were found to be reliable and consistent. Hierarchical clustering analysis revealed consistent clustering among genes assigned to 'developmental growth', such as the ontology genes and germ layers. Accuracy of the expression data was supported by comparing information from known transcripts and tissue from which the transcript was derived with macroarray data. Hybridization assays resulted in consistent tissue expression profile, which will be useful to dissect tissue-regulatory networks and to predict functions of novel genes identified after extensive sequencing of the genomes of model organisms. Screening our skeletal-muscle platform using 5 chicken adult tissues allowed us identifying 43 'tissue-specific' transcripts, and 112 co-expressed uncharacterized transcripts with 62 putative motifs. This platform also represents an important tool for functional investigation of novel genes; to determine expression pattern according to developmental stages; to evaluate differences in muscular growth potential between chicken lines, and to identify tissue-specific genes.
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Background: Francisella tularensis causes severe pulmonary disease, and nasal vaccination could be the ideal measure to effectively prevent it. Nevertheless, the efficacy of this type of vaccine is influenced by the lack of an effective mucosal adjuvant. Methodology/Principal Findings: Mice were immunized via the nasal route with lipopolysaccharide isolated from F. tularensis and neisserial recombinant PorB as an adjuvant candidate. Then, mice were challenged via the same route with the F. tularensis attenuated live vaccine strain (LVS). Mouse survival and analysis of a number of immune parameters were conducted following intranasal challenge. Vaccination induced a systemic antibody response and 70% of mice were protected from challenge as showed by their improved survival and weight regain. Lungs from mice recovering from infection presented prominent lymphoid aggregates in peribronchial and perivascular areas, consistent with the location of bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue (BALT). BALT areas contained proliferating B and T cells, germinal centers, T cell infiltrates, dendritic cells (DCs). We also observed local production of antibody generating cells and homeostatic chemokines in BALT areas. Conclusions: These data indicate that PorB might be an optimal adjuvant candidate for improving the protective effect of F. tularensis antigens. The presence of BALT induced after intranasal challenge in vaccinated mice might play a role in regulation of local immunity and long-term protection, but more work is needed to elucidate mechanisms that lead to its formation.