Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.

The effect of long-term repeated burning and fire exclusion on above- and below-ground Blackbutt (Eucalyptus pilularis) forest vegetation assemblages

We used a long-term fire experiment in south-east Queensland, Australia, to determine the effects of frequent prescribed burning and fire exclusion on understorey vegetation (<7.5 m) richness and density in Eucalyptus pilularis forest. Our study provided a point in time assessment of the standing vegetation and soil-stored vegetation at two experimental sites with treatments of biennial burning, quadrennial burning since 19711972 and no burning since 1969. Vegetation composition, density and richness of certain plant groups in the standing and soil-stored vegetation were influenced by fire treatments. The density of resprouting plants <3 m in height was higher in the biennially burnt treatment than in the unburnt treatment, but resprouters 37.5 m in height were absent from the biennial burning treatment. Obligate seeder richness and density in the standing vegetation was not significantly influenced by the fire treatments, but richness of this plant group in the seed bank was higher in the quadrennial treatment at one site and in the long unburnt treatment at the other site. Long unburnt treatments had an understorey of rainforest species, while biennial burning at one site and quadrennial burning at the other site were associated with greater standing grass density relative to the unburnt treatment. This difference in vegetation composition due to fire regime potentially influences the flammability of the standing understorey vegetation. Significant interactions between fire regime and site, apparent in the standing and soil-stored vegetation, demonstrate the high degree of natural variability in vegetation community responses to fire regimes.

Principles and guidelines for managing cattle grazing in the grazing lands of northern Australia: stocking rates, pasture resting, prescribed fire, paddock size and water points - a review

Beef cattle grazing is the dominant land use in the extensive tropical and sub-tropical rangelands of northern Australia. Despite the considerable knowledge on land and herd management gained from both research and practical experience, the adoption of improved management is limited by an inability to predict how changes in practices and combinations of practices will affect cattle production, economic returns and resource condition. To address these issues, past Australian and international research relating to four management factors that affect productivity and resource condition was reviewed in order to identify key management principles. The four management factors considered were stocking rates, pasture resting, prescribed fire, and fencing and water point development for managing grazing distribution. Four management principles for sound grazing management in northern Australia were formulated as follows: (1) manage stocking rates to meet goals for livestock production and land condition; (2) rest pastures to maintain them in good condition or to restore them from poor condition to increase pasture productivity; (3) devise and apply fire regimes that enhance the condition of grazing land and livestock productivity while minimising undesirable impacts; and (4) use fencing and water points to manipulate grazing distribution. Each principle is supported by several more specific guidelines. These principles and guidelines, and the supporting research on which they are based, are presented.

Feasibility of assimilating ASCAT surface winds into a Limited Area Model

Sea-surface wind observations of previous generation scatterometers have been successfully assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Impact studies conducted with these assimilation implementations have shown a distinct improvement to model analysis and forecast accuracies. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), flown on Metop-A, offers an improved sea-surface wind accuracy and better data coverage when compared to the previous generation scatterometers. Five individual case studies are carried out. The effect of including ASCAT data into High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) assimilation system (4D-Var) is tested to be neutral-positive for situations with general flow direction from the Atlantic Ocean. For northerly flow regimes the effect is negative. This is later discussed to be caused by problems involving modeling northern flows, and also due to the lack of a suitable verification method. Suggestions and an example of an improved verification method is presented later on. A closer examination of a polar low evolution is also shown. It is found that the ASCAT assimilation scheme improves forecast of the initial evolution of the polar low, but the model advects the strong low pressure centre too fast eastward. Finally, the flaws of the implementation are found small and implementing the ASCAT assimilation scheme into the operational HIRLAM suite is feasible, but longer time period validation is still required.

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus tick in vitro feeding methods for functional (dsRNA) and vaccine candidate (antibody) screening

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) ticks cause economic losses for cattle industries throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world estimated at $US2.5 billion annually. Lack of access to efficacious long-lasting vaccination regimes and increases in tick acaricide resistance have led to the investigation of targets for the development of novel tick vaccines and treatments. In vitro tick feeding has been used for many tick species to study the effect of new acaricides on the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. Few studies have reported the use of in vitro feeding for functional genomic studies using RNA interference and/or the effect of specific anti-tick antibodies. In particular, in vitro feeding reports for the cattle tick are limited due to its relatively short hypostome. Previously published methods were further modified to broaden optimal tick sizes/weights, feeding sources including bovine and ovine serum, optimisation of commercially available blood anti-coagulant tubes, and IgG concentrations for effective antibody delivery. Ticks are fed overnight and monitored for ∼5–6 weeks to determine egg output and success of larval emergence using a humidified incubator. Lithium-heparin blood tubes provided the most reliable anti-coagulant for bovine blood feeding compared with commercial citrated (CPDA) and EDTA tubes. Although >30 mg semi-engorged ticks fed more reliably, ticks as small as 15 mg also fed to repletion to lay viable eggs. Ticks which gained less than ∼10 mg during in vitro feeding typically did not lay eggs. One mg/ml IgG from Bm86-vaccinated cattle produced a potent anti-tick effect in vitro (83% efficacy) similar to that observed in vivo. Alternatively, feeding of dsRNA targeting Bm86 did not demonstrate anti-tick effects (11% efficacy) compared with the potent effects of ubiquitin dsRNA. This study optimises R. microplus tick in vitro feeding methods which support the development of cattle tick vaccines and treatments.

Early Childhood teachers’ work in a time of change

This article investigates teacher decision-making in a time of rapid educational reforms. Institutional ethnography is used to discover how teachers’ work is co-ordinated by the texts of a new national curriculum, and a system for the assessment and ratings of kindergarten, preschool and long day-care services in individual settings and across sites. The research draws on video recorded interview data gathered from five teachers working with three to five year old children in kindergarten classrooms throughout South East Queensland. Analysis shows the reported effects of policy regimes designed to improve the quality of learning young children experience, on classroom teachers’ work. Findings suggest that increasing levels of governance enacted through policy texts are creating an audit culture where teachers’ educational work with children is changing. The article argues that the reported workload associated with the production of evidence, and the focus on providing ‘proof’ of quality, is taking teachers away from time spent building educative relationships with children. Note: In Queensland, kindergarten caters for children aged three and a half to five years. This year is known as Preschool in some Australian states.

Plastic response of orthotropic spherical shells under blast loading

The plastic response of a segment of a simply supported orthotropic spherical shell under a uniform blast loading applied on the convex surface of the shell is presented. The blast is assumed to impart a uniform velocity to the shell surface initially. The material of the shell is orthotropic obeying a modified Tresca yield hypersurface conditions and the associated flow rules. The deformation of the shell is determined during all phases of its motion by considering the motion of plastic hinges in different regimes of flow. Numerical results presented include the permanent deformed configuration of the shell and the total time of shell response for different degrees of orthotropy. Conclusions regarding the plastic behaviour of spherical shells with circumferential and meridional stiffening under uniform blast load are presented.

Dietary media for mass rearing of rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) and flat grain beetle, Cryptolestes pusillus (Schonherr) (Coleoptera: Cucujidae)

We developed a suitable diet for mass rearing of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) populations under laboratory conditions. Recently, this pest has developed strong level of resistance to phosphine in Australia, and therefore, a significant amount of research has been directed towards its management. In total, nineteen grain-based diets, containing rolled oats, various combinations of cracked grains and flours of wheat, sorghum, maize and barley were tested. Each diet contained a small proportion of wheat germ (4.5% w/w) and torula yeast (0.5% w/w). Experiments were conducted at fixed temperature and relative humidity regimes of 30 ± 2 °C and 70 ± 2%, respectively, and replicated three times. Adults (n = 40) of a laboratory strain of C. ferrugineus were introduced into each diet, removed after 14 days and total numbers of live adult progeny were recorded. The following diets resulted in highest live progeny production: barley flour (95%) (607.67 ± 11.21) = rolled oats (75%) + cracked sorghum (20%) (597.33 ± 33.79) ≥ wheat flour (47.5%) + barley flour (47.5%) (496.67 ± 52.93) > cracked sorghum (95%) (384.00 ± 60.66). The performance of these four diets was then tested with field-collected populations of C. ferrugineus and Cryptolestes pusillus (Schonherr). The diets based on rolled oats + cracked sorghum, wheat flour + barley flour, and barley flour alone consistently produced highest progeny numbers in field-collected populations of both species, with mean progeny numbers ranging from 359.9 to 478.5. The multiplication of C. pusillus was significantly higher than C. ferrugineus on all four diets. Our findings will help in mass rearing of healthy cultures of C. ferrugineus and C. pusillus that will greatly facilitate laboratory and field research and in particular, in developing management tactics for these species.

Sorghum genotypes differ in high temperature responses for seed set

Significant genotypic differences in tolerance of pollen germination and seed set to high temperatures have been shown in sorghum. However, it is unclear whether differences were associated with variation in either the threshold temperature above which reproductive processes are affected, or in the tolerance to increased temperature above that threshold. The objectives of this study were to (a) dissect known differences in heat tolerance for a range of sorghum genotypes into differences in the threshold temperature and tolerance to increased temperatures, (b) determine whether poor seed set under high temperatures can be compensated by increased seed mass, and (c) identify whether genotypic differences in heat tolerance in a controlled environment facility (CEF) can be reproduced in field conditions. Twenty genotypes were grown in a CEF under four day/night temperatures (31.9/21.0 °C, 32.8/21.0 °C, 36.1/21.0 °C, and 38.0/21.0 °C), and a subset of six genotypes was grown in the field under four different temperature regimes around anthesis. The novelty of the findings in this study related to differences in responsiveness to high temperature—genotypic differences in seed set percentage were found for both the threshold temperature and the tolerance to increased maximum temperature above that threshold. Further, the response of seed set to high temperature in the field study was well correlated to that in the CEF (R2 = 0.69), although the slope was significantly less than unity, indicating that heat stress effects may have been diluted under the variable field conditions. Poor seed set was not compensated by increased seed mass in either CEF or field environments. Grain yield was thus closely related to seed set percentage. This result demonstrates the potential for development of a low-cost field screening method to identify high-temperature tolerant varieties that could deliver sustainable yields under future warmer climates.

Aluesuunnittelu ja kestävä kehitys Luoteis-Venäjällä : Ympäristösuunnittelun mahdollisuus paikallisissa hallintatavoissa

In this Ph.D. thesis I have studied how the objectives of sustainable development have been integrated into Northwest Russian urban and regional planning, and how the Russian planning discourse has changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. By analysing the planning discussion, processes, and strategic documents I have also investigated the use of power and governmentality in urban and regional planning. As a methodological foundation I have used an approach that I call geographical constructivism . It was possible to answer in a relevant manner the question of how sustainable development has become a part of planning in Northwest Russia through a discourse analysis of the planning discussion. During the last decades, the aim of sustainable development has become globally one of the most central societal challenges. Urban and regional planning has a central role to play in promoting this process, since many meta-level objectives actually take shape within its sphere. An ever more actual challenge brought by sustainable development is to plan regions and places while balancing the conflicts of the pressures of safeguarding a good environment and of taking into consideration social and economic needs. I have given these unavoidable conflicts of sustainable development a central place in my work. In my view, complementing instrumental and communicative rationality with conflict rationality gives environmental planning a well-equipped toolbox. Sustainable development can be enhanced in urban and regional planning by seeking open, and especially hidden, potential conflicts. Thus, the expressed thinking (mentality) and actions taken by power regimes in and around conflicts open an interesting viewpoint into Northwest Russian governmentality. I examine the significance of sustainable development in planning through Northwest Russian geography, and also through recent planning legislation and four case studies. In addition, I project my analysis of empirical material onto the latest discussion of planning theory. My four case studies, which are based on independent and separate empirical material (42 thematic interviews and planning documents), consider the republics of Karelia and Komi, Leningrad oblast and the city of Saint Petersburg. In the dissertation I argue how sustainable development is, in the local governmentalities of Northwest Russia, understood as a concept where solving environmental problems is central, and that they can be solved through planning carried out by the planning professionals. Despite this idealism, environmental improvements have been overlooked by appealing to difficult economic factors. This is what I consider environmental racism, which I think is the most central barrier to sustainable development in Northwest Russia. The situation concerning the social dimension of sustainable development is even more difficult, since, for example, the development of local democracy is not highly valued. In the planning discourse this democracy racism is explained by a short history of democracy in Russia. However, precisely through planning conflicts, for example in St. Petersburg, planning has become socially more sustainable: protests by local inhabitants have bypassed the poorly functioning representational democracy, when the governmentality has changed from a mute use of power to one that adopts a stand on a conflicting issue. Keywords: Russia, urban and regional planning, sustainable development, environmental planning, power and conflicts in planning, governmentality, rationalities.

Vertical Distribution of Soil Denitrifying Communities in a Wet Sclerophyll Forest under Long-Term Repeated Burning

Soil biogeochemical cycles are largely mediated by microorganisms, while fire significantly modifies biogeochemical cycles mainly via altering microbial community and substrate availability. Majority of studies on fire effects have focused on the surface soil; therefore, our understanding of the vertical distribution of microbial communities and the impacts of fire on nitrogen (N) dynamics in the soil profile is limited. Here, we examined the changes of soil denitrification capacity (DNC) and denitrifying communities with depth under different burning regimes, and their interaction with environmental gradients along the soil profile. Results showed that soil depth had a more pronounced impact than the burning treatment on the bacterial community size. The abundance of 16S rRNA and denitrification genes (narG, nirK, and nirS) declined exponentially with soil depth. Surprisingly, the nosZ-harboring denitrifiers were enriched in the deeper soil layers, which was likely to indicate that the nosZ-harboring denitrifiers could better adapt to the stress conditions (i.e., oxygen deficiency, nutrient limitation, etc.) than other denitrifiers. Soil nutrients, including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total soluble N (TSN), ammonium (NH4 +), and nitrate (NO3 −), declined significantly with soil depth, which probably contributed to the vertical distribution of denitrifying communities. Soil DNC decreased significantly with soil depth, which was negligible in the depths below 20 cm. These findings have provided new insights into niche separation of the N-cycling functional guilds along the soil profile, under a varied fire disturbance regime.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Dynamic Instabilities in Slender Space Launch Vehicles under Propulsive Thrust and Aerodynamic Forces

A mechanics based linear analysis of the problem of dynamic instabilities in slender space launch vehicles is undertaken. The flexible body dynamics of the moving vehicle is studied in an inertial frame of reference, including velocity induced curvature effects, which have not been considered so far in the published literature. Coupling among the rigid-body modes, the longitudinal vibrational modes and the transverse vibrational modes due to asymmetric lifting-body cross-section are considered. The model also incorporates the effects of aerodynamic forces and the propulsive thrust of the vehicle. The effects of the coupling between the combustion process (mass variation, developed thrust etc.) and the variables involved in the flexible body dynamics (displacements and velocities) are clearly brought out. The model is one-dimensional, and it can be employed to idealised slender vehicles with complex shapes. Computer simulations are carried out using a standard eigenvalue problem within h-p finite element modelling framework. Stability regimes for a vehicle subjected to propulsive thrust are validated by comparing the results from published literature. Numerical simulations are carried out for a representative vehicle to determine the instability regimes with vehicle speed and propulsive thrust as the parameters. The phenomena of static instability (divergence) and dynamic instability (flutter) are observed. The results at low Mach number match closely with the results obtained from previous models published in the literature.

Lighting the way: Towards reducing misorientation of olive ridley hatchlings due to artificial lighting at Rushikulya, India

Sea-finding behavior in sea turtle hatchlings is modified by the visual cues provided by artificial beach front lighting. The consequent landward movement of hatchlings in response to coastal electric lighting reduces their survival rates. We assessed the potential impact of coastal lighting at Rushikulya, an important mass nesting site of the olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) in the Indian Ocean region. We examined the response of hatchlings to light characteristics in an experimental setup, as well as to the existing lighting regimes along the beach, using arena trials. Previous studies on other species indicate preferential orientation towards low wavelength and high intensity light. Our study confirms these preferences among hatchlings from the Indian Ocean population of olive ridleys. In addition we also found that wavelength and intensity could have an interactive effect upon hatchling orientation. Hatchlings at the study site respond both to visible point sources of light and to sheer glows of light. Though beach plantations of introduced Casuarina equisetifolia are generally considered to have negative impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches, we found that they acted as an effective light barrier when planted about 50 m away from the high tide line. We developed a model of the expected impact of artificial lighting on hatchling orientation during mass hatching events of previous years, and predict as much as 50% misorientation in some years. We also developed a map representing the misorientation of hatchlings due to artificial lighting based on arena trials in different regions of the beach. The results of the study helped identify focal areas for light management on the beach, which could be critical for the survival of this population.