The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

Evaluation of stunned and infarcted canine myocardium by real time myocardial contrast echocardiography

Differentiation between stunned and infarcted myocardium in the setting of acute ischemia is challenging. Real time myocardial contrast echocardiography allows the simultaneous assessment of myocardial perfusion and function. In the present study we evaluated infarcted and stunned myocardium in an experimental model using real time myocardial contrast echocardiography. Sixteen dogs underwent 180 min of coronary occlusion followed by reperfusion (infarct model) and seven other dogs were submitted to 20 min of coronary occlusion followed by reperfusion (stunned model). Wall motion abnormality and perfusional myocardial defect areas were measured by planimetry. Risk and infarct areas were determined by tissue staining. In the infarct model, the wall motion abnormality area during coronary occlusion (5.52 ± 1.14 cm²) was larger than the perfusional myocardial defect area (3.71 ± 1.45 cm²; P < 0.001). Reperfusion resulted in maintenance of wall motion abnormality (5.45 ± 1.41 cm²; P = 0.43 versus occlusion) and reduction of perfusional myocardial defect (1.51 ± 1.29 cm²; P = 0.004 versus occlusion). Infarct size determined by contrast echocardiography correlated with tissue staining (r = 0.71; P = 0.002). In the stunned model, the wall motion abnormality area was 5.49 ± 0.68 cm² during occlusion and remained 5.1 ± 0.63 cm² after reperfusion (P = 0.07). Perfusional defect area was 2.43 ± 0.79 cm² during occlusion and was reduced to 0.2 ± 0.53 cm² after reperfusion (P = 0.04). 2,3,5-Triphenyl tetrazolium chloride staining confirmed the absence of necrotic myocardium in all dogs in the stunned model. Real time myocardial contrast echocardiography is a noninvasive technique capable of distinguishing between stunned and infarcted myocardium after acute ischemia.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Bioeffects of albumin-encapsulated microbubbles and real-time myocardial contrast echocardiography in an experimental canine model

Myocardial contrast echocardiography has been used for assessing myocardial perfusion. Some concerns regarding its safety still remain, mainly regarding the induction of microvascular alterations. We sought to determine the bioeffects of microbubbles and real-time myocardial contrast echocardiography (RTMCE) in a closed-chest canine model. Eighteen mongrel dogs were randomly assigned to two groups. Nine were submitted to continuous intravenous infusion of perfluorocarbon-exposed sonicated dextrose albumin (PESDA) plus continuous imaging using power pulse inversion RTMCE for 180 min, associated with manually deflagrated high-mechanical index impulses. The control group consisted of 3 dogs submitted to continuous imaging using RTMCE without PESDA, 3 dogs received PESDA alone, and 3 dogs were sham-operated. Hemodynamics and cardiac rhythm were monitored continuously. Histological analysis was performed on cardiac and pulmonary tissues. No hemodynamic changes or cardiac arrhythmias were observed in any group. Normal left ventricular ejection fraction and myocardial perfusion were maintained throughout the protocol. Frequency of mild and focal microhemorrhage areas in myocardial and pulmonary tissue was similar in PESDA plus RTMCE and control groups. The percentages of positive microscopical fields in the myocardium were 0.4 and 0.7% (P = NS) in the PESDA plus RTMCE and control groups, respectively, and in the lungs they were 2.1 and 1.1%, respectively (P = NS). In this canine model, myocardial perfusion imaging obtained with PESDA and RTMCE was safe, with no alteration in cardiac rhythm or left ventricular function. Mild and focal myocardial and pulmonary microhemorrhages were observed in both groups, and may be attributed to surgical tissue manipulation.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Simultaneous detection of the C282Y, H63D and S65C mutations in the hemochromatosis gene using quenched-FRET real-time PCR

Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a common autosomal disorder of iron metabolism mainly affecting Caucasian populations. Three recurrent disease-associated mutations have been detected in the hemochromatosis gene (HFE): C282Y, H63D, and S65C. Although HH phenotype has been associated with all three mutations, C282Y is considered the most relevant mutation responsible for hemochromatosis. Clinical complications of HH include cirrhosis of the liver, congestive cardiac failure and cardiac arrhythmias, endocrine pancreatic disease, which can be prevented by early diagnosis and treatment. Therefore, a reliable genotyping method is required for presymptomatic diagnosis. We describe the simultaneous detection of the C282Y, H63D and S65C mutations in the hemochromatosis gene by real-time PCR followed by melting curve analysis using fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) probes. The acceptor fluorophore may be replaced by a quencher, increasing multiplex possibilities. Real-time PCR results were compared to the results of sequencing and conventional PCR followed by restriction digestion and detection by agarose gel electrophoresis (PCR-RFLP). Genotypes from 80 individuals obtained both by the conventional PCR-RFLP method and quenched-FRET real-time PCR were in full agreement. Sequencing also confirmed the results obtained by the new method, which proved to be an accurate, rapid and cost-effective diagnostic assay. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness of real-time PCR for the simultaneous detection of mutations in the HFE gene, which allows a reduction of a significant amount of time in sample processing compared to the PCR-RFLP method, eliminates the use of toxic reagents, reduces the risk of contamination in the laboratory, and enables full process automation.

The performance of semi-quantitative differential PCR is similar to that of real-time PCR for the detection of the MYCN gene in neuroblastomas

Amplification of the MYCN gene in neuroblastomas is a potent biological marker of highly aggressive tumors, which are invariably fatal unless sound clinical management is applied. To determine the usefulness of semi-quantitative differential PCR (SQ-PCR) for accurate quantification of MYCN gene copy number, we evaluated the analytical performance of this method by comparing the results obtained with it for 101 tumor samples of neuroblastoma to that obtained by absolute and relative real-time PCR. Similar results were obtained for 100 (99%) samples, no significant difference was detected between the median log10 MYCN copy number (1.53 by SQ-PCR versus 1.55 by absolute real-time PCR), and the results of the two assays correlated closely (r = 0.8, Pearson correlation; P < 0.001). In the comparison of SQ-PCR and relative real-time PCR, SQ-PCR versus relative real-time PCR concordant results were found in 100 (99%) samples, no significant difference was found in median log10 MYCN copy number (1.53 by SQ-PCR versus 1.27 by relative real-time PCR), and the results of the two assays correlated closely (r = 0.8, Pearson correlation; P < 0.001). These findings indicate that the performance of SQ-PCR was comparable to that of real-time PCR for the amplification and quantification of MYCN copy number. Thus, SQ-PCR can be reliably used as an alternative assay in laboratories without facilities for real-time PCR.

Value added KPI service delivery with quality function deployment: Multiple case study in asset & real estate management

The aim of this study is to investigate value added service concept for an asset and real estate management case company. The initial purpose was to recognize the most value adding key performance indicators (KPIs) information delivered for its customers, real estate investors with value added service. The multiple case study strategy included two focus group interviews with five case interviews in total. Additionally, quality function deployment (QFD) was used in order to form up the service process. The study starts with introduction and methodology explaining the demand for the thesis study. The subsequent chapter presents the theoretical background on real estate management KPIs in four main points of views and quality function deployment from the service development point of view. The chapter also defines research gap for the case study. According to the case study interviews, the most favored KPIs to deliver for the clients are income maturity of lease agreements and leasing activity. These KPIs and quality characteristics are translated into the QFD. In total, the service QFD explains the service planning, process control, and action plan phases.

Detection and quantification of Roundup Ready® soybean residues in sausage samples by conventional and real-time PCR

The increasing presence of products derived from genetically modified (GM) plants in human and animal diets has led to the development of detection methods to distinguish biotechnology-derived foods from conventional ones. The conventional and real-time PCR have been used, respectively, to detect and quantify GM residues in highly processed foods. DNA extraction is a critical step during the analysis process. Some factors such as DNA degradation, matrix effects, and the presence of PCR inhibitors imply that a detection or quantification limit, established for a given method, is restricted to a matrix used during validation and cannot be projected to any other matrix outside the scope of the method. In Brazil, sausage samples were the main class of processed products in which Roundup Ready® (RR) soybean residues were detected. Thus, the validation of methodologies for the detection and quantification of those residues is absolutely necessary. Sausage samples were submitted to two different methods of DNA extraction: modified Wizard and the CTAB method. The yield and quality were compared for both methods. DNA samples were analyzed by conventional and real-time PCR for the detection and quantification of Roundup Ready® soybean in the samples. At least 200 ng of total sausage DNA was necessary for a reliable quantification. Reactions containing DNA amounts below this value led to large variations on the expected GM percentage value. In conventional PCR, the detection limit varied from 1.0 to 500 ng, depending on the GM soybean content in the sample. The precision, performance, and linearity were relatively high indicating that the method used for analysis was satisfactory.

Qualidade do palmito da palmeira real em conserva

A pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar o aproveitamento industrial e a qualidade do palmito da palmeira Real Australiana (Archontophoenix alexandrae e A. cunninghamiana) em comparação aos palmitos das palmeiras Açaí (Euterpe oleracea) e Pupunha (Bactris gasipaes). O palmito foi processado como conserva acidificada e pasteurizada e submetido às análises de comprimento e diâmetro dos toletes, peso bruto, líquido e drenado, espaço livre, vácuo, pH, avaliação microbiológica, cor e textura objetivas e avaliação sensorial quanto à cor, aparência, textura, sabor e preferência geral. Os resultados da pesquisa mostraram que o palmito da palmeira Real é adequado para processamento em forma de conserva acidificada e pasteurizada, apresentando características sensoriais semelhantes às das outras variedades. Do ponto de vista da estabilidade ao armazenamento, as análises físico-químicas e microbiológicas mostraram que o palmito da palmeira Real em conserva se apresentou estável durante o período de doze meses de armazenamento. Pode-se afirmar então, que a palmeira Real Australiana apresenta boa qualidade em termos de industrialização na forma de palmito em conserva acidificada e pasteurizada.

Biosensor for determination of glucose in real samples of beverages

A biosensor was developed for spectrophotometric determination of glucose concentrations in real samples of orange juice energetic drinks, and sport drinks. The biosensor consisted of glucose oxidase (GOD) and horseradish peroxidase (HRP) immobilized onto polyaniline activated with glutaraldehyde (PANIG). Immobilization parameters were optimized for GOD, and maximum immobilization yield was 16% when 5.0 mg of PANIG and 8.9 U prepared in 0.1 mol.L-1 sodium phosphate buffer (pH 7.0) reacted for 60 minutes at 4 °C with gentle stirring. The linear operational range for glucose determination using optimized operational parameters was between 0.05 and 6.0 mg.mL-1 with a very good reproducibility of response. The results obtained in the biosensor were compared with those obtained using free enzymes (commercial kits) and then validated through statistical analysis using the Tukey test (95% confidence interval).

Use of real-time PCR to evaluate two DNA extraction methods from food

The DNA extraction is a critical step in Genetically Modified Organisms analysis based on real-time PCR. In this study, the CTAB and DNeasy methods provided good quality and quantity of DNA from the texturized soy protein, infant formula, and soy milk samples. Concerning the Certified Reference Material consisting of 5% Roundup Ready® soybean, neither method yielded DNA of good quality. However, the dilution test applied in the CTAB extracts showed no interference of inhibitory substances. The PCR efficiencies of lectin target amplification were not statistically different, and the coefficients of correlation (R²) demonstrated high degree of correlation between the copy numbers and the threshold cycle (Ct) values. ANOVA showed suitable adjustment of the regression and absence of significant linear deviations. The efficiencies of the p35S amplification were not statistically different, and all R² values using DNeasy extracts were above 0.98 with no significant linear deviations. Two out of three R² values using CTAB extracts were lower than 0.98, corresponding to lower degree of correlation, and the lack-of-fit test showed significant linear deviation in one run. The comparative analysis of the Ct values for the p35S and lectin targets demonstrated no statistical significant differences between the analytical curves of each target.