Mirror me : the effect of the voting advice application smartvote on voting preferences and behavior of Swiss voters

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become a central component of election campaigns worldwide. Through matching political preferences of voters to parties and candidates, the web application grants voters a look into their political mirror and reveals the most suitable political choices to them in terms of policy congruence. Both the dense and concise information on the electoral offer and the comparative nature of the application make VAAs an unprecedented information source for electoral decision making. In times where electoral choices are found to be highly individualized and driven by political issue positions, an ever increasing number of voters turn to VAAs before casting their ballots. With VAAs in high demand, the question of their effects on voters has become a pressing research topic. In various countries, survey research has been used to proclaim an impact of VAAs on electoral behavior, yet practically all studies fail to provide the scientific evidence that would allow for making such claims. In this thesis, I set out to systematically establish the causal link between VAA use and electoral behavior, using various data sources and appropriate statistical techniques in doing so. The focus lies on the Swiss VAA smartvote, introduced in the forefront of the 2003 Swiss federal elections and meanwhile an integral part of the national election campaign, smartvote has produced over a million voting recommendations in the last Swiss federal elections to an active electorate of two million, potentially guiding a vast amount of voters in their choices on the ballot. In order to determine the effect of the VAA on electoral behavior, I analyze both voting preferences and choice among Swiss voters during two consecutive election periods. First, I introduce statistical techniques to adequately examine VAA effects in observational studies and use them to demonstrate that voters who used smartvote prior to the 2007 Swiss federal elections were significantly more likely to swing vote in the elections than non- users. Second, I analyze preference voting during the same election and show that the smartvote voting recommendation inclines politically knowledgeable voters to modify their ballots and cast candidate specific preference votes. Third, to further tackle the indication that smartvote use affects the preference structure of voters, I employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that voters who use the application tend to strengthen their vote propensities for their most preferred party and adapt their overall party preferences in a way that they consider more than one party as eligible vote options after engaging with the application. Finally, vote choice is examined for the 2011 Swiss federal election, showing once more that the VAA initiated a change of party choice among voters. In sum, this thesis presents empirical evidence for the transformative effect of the Swiss VAA smartvote on the electoral behavior.

Method to assess and optimise dependability of complex macro-systems: application to a railway signalling system

Achieving a high degree of dependability in complex macro-systems is challenging. Because of the large number of components and numerous independent teams involved, an overview of the global system performance is usually lacking to support both design and operation adequately. A functional failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) approach is proposed to address the dependability optimisation of large and complex systems. The basic inductive model FMECA has been enriched to include considerations such as operational procedures, alarm systems. environmental and human factors, as well as operation in degraded mode. Its implementation on a commercial software tool allows an active linking between the functional layers of the system and facilitates data processing and retrieval, which enables to contribute actively to the system optimisation. The proposed methodology has been applied to optimise dependability in a railway signalling system. Signalling systems are typical example of large complex systems made of multiple hierarchical layers. The proposed approach appears appropriate to assess the global risk- and availability-level of the system as well as to identify its vulnerabilities. This enriched-FMECA approach enables to overcome some of the limitations and pitfalls previously reported with classical FMECA approaches.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

The induced 2-tuple linguistic generalized OWA operator and its application in linguistic decision making

[spa] Se presenta el operador de media ponderada ordenada generalizada lingüística de 2 tuplas inducida (2-TILGOWA). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que extiende los anteriores modelos a través de utilizar medias generalizadas, variables de ordenación inducidas e información lingüística representada mediante el modelo de las 2 tuplas lingüísticas. Su principal ventaja se encuentra en la posibilidad de incluir a un gran número de operadores de agregación lingüísticos como casos particulares. Por eso, el análisis puede ser visto desde diferentes perspectivas de forma que se obtiene una visión más completa del problema considerado y seleccionar la alternativa que parece estar en mayor concordancia con nuestros intereses o creencias. A continuación se desarrolla una generalización mayor a través de utilizar medias cuasi-aritméticas, obteniéndose el operador Quasi-2-TILOWA. El trabajo finaliza analizando la aplicabilidad del nuevo modelo en un problema de toma de decisiones sobre gestión de la producción.

The generalized index of maximum and minimum level and its application in decision making

[spa] El índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel es una técnica muy útil, especialmente para toma de decisiones, que usa la distancia de Hamming y el coeficiente de adecuación en el mismo problema. En este trabajo, se propone una generalización a través de utilizar medias generalizadas y cuasi aritméticas. A estos operadores de agregación, se les denominará el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel medio ponderado ordenado generalizado (GOWAIMAM) y cuasi aritmético (Quasi-OWAIMAM). Estos nuevos operadores generalizan una amplia gama de casos particulares como el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel generalizado (GIMAM), el OWAIMAM, y otros. También se desarrolla una aplicación en la toma de decisiones sobre selección de productos.

Dynamic compact thermal models with multiple power sources: application to an ultrathin chip stacking technology

Whereas numerical modeling using finite-element methods (FEM) can provide transient temperature distribution in the component with enough accuracy, it is of the most importance the development of compact dynamic thermal models that can be used for electrothermal simulation. While in most cases single power sources are considered, here we focus on the simultaneous presence of multiple sources. The thermal model will be in the form of a thermal impedance matrix containing the thermal impedance transfer functions between two arbitrary ports. Eachindividual transfer function element ( ) is obtained from the analysis of the thermal temperature transient at node ¿ ¿ after a power step at node ¿ .¿ Different options for multiexponential transient analysis are detailed and compared. Among the options explored, small thermal models can be obtained by constrained nonlinear least squares (NLSQ) methods if the order is selected properly using validation signals. The methods are applied to the extraction of dynamic compact thermal models for a new ultrathin chip stack technology (UTCS).

Defect study of SnO2 nanostructures by cathodoluminescence analysis: Application to nanowires

Defects in SnO2 nanowires have been studied by cathodoluminescence, and the obtained spectra have been compared with those measured on SnO2 nanocrystals of different sizes in order to reveal information about point defects not determined by other characterization techniques. Dependence of the luminescence bands on the thermal treatment temperatures and pre-treatment conditions have been determined pointing out their possible relation, due to the used treatment conditions, with the oxygen vacancy concentration. To explain these cathodoluminescence spectra and their behavior, a model based on first-principles calculations of the surface oxygen vacancies in the different crystallographic directions is proposed for corroborating the existence of surface state bands localized at energy values compatible with the found cathodoluminescence bands and with the gas sensing mechanisms. CL bands centered at 1.90 and 2.20 eV are attributed to the surface oxygen vacancies 100° coordinated with tin atoms, whereas CL bands centered at 2.37 and 2.75 eV are related to the surface oxygen vacancies 130° coordinated. This combined process of cathodoluminescence and ab initio calculations is shown to be a powerful tool for nanowire defect analysis.

Application of a floating well concept to a latch-up-free, low-cost, smart power high-side switch technology

The aim of this brief is to present an original design methodology that permits implementing latch-up-free smart power circuits on a very simple, cost-effective technology. The basic concept used for this purpose is letting float the wells of the MOS transistors most susceptible to initiate latch-up.

Transfer insensitive labeling technique (TILT): application to multislice functional perfusion imaging.

Cerebral blood flow can be studied in a multislice mode with a recently proposed perfusion sequence using inversion of water spins as an endogenous tracer without magnetization transfer artifacts. The magnetization transfer insensitive labeling technique (TILT) has been used for mapping blood flow changes at a microvascular level under motor activation in a multislice mode. In TILT, perfusion mapping is achieved by subtraction of a perfusion-sensitized image from a control image. Perfusion weighting is accomplished by proximal blood labeling using two 90 degrees radiofrequency excitation pulses. For control preparation the labeling pulses are modified such that they have no net effect on blood water magnetization. The percentage of blood flow change, as well as its spatial extent, has been studied in single and multislice modes with varying delays between labeling and imaging. The average perfusion signal change due to activation was 36.9 +/- 9.1% in the single-slice experiments and 38.1 +/- 7.9% in the multislice experiments. The volume of activated brain areas amounted to 1.51 +/- 0.95 cm3 in the contralateral primary motor (M1) area, 0.90 +/- 0.72 cc in the ipsilateral M1 area, 1.27 +/- 0.39 cm3 in the contralateral and 1.42 +/- 0.75 cm3 in the ipsilateral premotor areas, and 0.71 +/- 0.19 cm3 in the supplementary motor area.

Le jeu trilogique de Lausanne et son application dans des situations de consultance

Pour honorer Edith Tilmans-Ostyn, j'ai choisi de parler de « consultance », selon sa définition, avec différentes utilisations du jeu trilogique de Lausanne, dit LTP (Lausanne Trilogue Play). Elaboré au Centre d'Etude de la Famille à Lausanne avec Elisabeth Fivaz-Depeursinge, cette situation se prête aussi bien à l'évaluation des interactions familiales à des fins de recherche que comme outil clinique pour des interventions thérapeutiques, objectif de la consultance. Etant aussi à l'aube de ma retraite professionnelle, j'ai retracé dans cet article des situations où j'étais impliquée personnellement comme consultante-thérapeute avec différents aménagements possibles du jeu (jeu père-mère-bébé, jeu prénatal avec une poupée, jeu thérapeute-mère-bébé). Ces descriptions cliniques s'accompagnent de réflexions sur les propriétés de la consultance, les spécificités des interventions thérapeutiques sur les relations familiales précoces et l'usage de la vidéo: en quelque sorte un passage de témoin, une transmission d'un certain savoir-faire.

Anaerobically controlled expression system derived from the arcDABC operon of Pseudomonas aeruginosa: application to lipase production.

The anaerobically inducible arcDABC operon encodes the enzymes of the arginine deiminase pathway in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Upon induction, the arcAB mRNAs and proteins reach high intracellular levels, because of a strong anaerobically controlled promoter and mRNA processing in arcD, leading to stable downstream transcripts. We explored the usefulness of this system for the construction of expression vectors. The lacZ gene of Escherichia coli was expressed to the highest levels when fused close to the arc promoter. Insertion of lacZ further downstream into arcA or arcB did not stabilize the intrinsically unstable lacZ mRNA. On the contrary, lacZ mRNA appeared to be a vulnerable endonuclease target destabilizing arcAB mRNAs in the 5'-to-3' direction in P. aeruginosa. The native arc promoter was modified for optional expression in the -10 sequence and in the -40 region, which is a binding site for the anaerobic regulator ANR. In P. aeruginosa grown either anaerobically or with oxygen limitation in unshaken cultures, this promoter was stronger than the induced tac promoter. The P. aeruginosa lipAH genes, which encode extracellular lipase and lipase foldase, respectively, were fused directly to the modified arc promoter in an IncQ vector plasmid. Semianaerobic static cultures of P. aeruginosa PAO1 carrying this recombinant plasmid overproduced extracellular lipase 30-fold during stationary phase compared with the production by strain PAO1 without the plasmid. Severe oxygen limitation, in contrast, resulted in poor lipase productivity despite effective induction of the ANR-dependent promoter, suggesting that secretion of active lipase is blocked by the absence of oxygen. In conclusion, the modified arc promoter is useful for driving the expression of cloned genes in P. aeruginosa during oxygen-limited growth and stationary phase.