Current account and capital mobility hypothesis: Evidence from the G-7

This paper investigates an intertemporal optimization model in order to analyze the current account of the G-7 countries, measured as the present value of the future changes in net output. The study compares observed and forecasted series, generated by the model, using Campbell & Shiller’s (1987) methodology. In the estimation process, the countries are considered separately (with OLS technique) as well as jointly (SURE approach), to capture contemporaneous correlations of the shocks in net output. The paper also proposes a note on Granger causality and its implications to the optimal current account. The empirical results are sensitive to the technique adopted in the estimation process and suggest a rejection of the model in the G-7 countries, except for the USA and Japan, according to some papers presented in the literature.

Microinsurance in Brazil: current situation and outlook

O trabalho aqui apresentado teve como objetivo investigar as oportunidades do microseguro no Brasil levando em conta o atual contexto de microfinanças no país e as potencias sinergias quem poderiam facilitar a implementação e o desenvolvimento do conceito. Cumpre lembrar que o microseguro não pode ser um substituto do microcrédito, mas; é um necessario complemento para continuar no caminho da inclusão social e financeira. A primeira parte desse trabalho aborda o tema de microfinanças no mundo e depois no Brasil, para poder entender o papel do microseguro como uma das ferramentas de microfinanças. A segunda parte é dedicada ao microseguro, com uma apresentação do conceito geral e de algumas iniciativas no mundo antes de se focar sobre o microseguro no Brasil. Apresentamos o quadro legal e os incentivos, juntos com o mercado potencial e os canais de distribuição no Brasil. A última parte apresenta o estudo de caso do Banco Bradesco e do órgão regulatório Susep, realizado através de entrevistas.

The BoP approach and its links to main related research fields: sense-making of the current discussion

A Base-da-Pirâmide (Base ofthePyramid- BoP) é referida na literatura como sendo o segmento sócio-econômico mais baixo em termos de paridade do poder de compra. Esse segmento encontrase geralmente excluído do sistema capitalista global. Esta tese analisa o tema BoP e discute dentro de um contexto sócio-econômico, como essa abordagem se relaciona com outras áreas de pesquisa, assim como a teoria do desenvolvimento internacional e a teoria de negócios internacionais. Estas duas teorias são identificadas como tendo uma relação mais forte com BoP. No que se segue, a abordagem BoP é incorporada nessas duas teorias com o objetivo de tornar este conceito mais claro e abrangente. Seguindo este raciocínio a abordagem BoP vem identificar contribuições no tocante a cada uma dessas abordagens teóricas. O argumento principal da tese é que a abordagem BoP é capaz de ligar essas duas teorias (teoria do desenvolvimento internacional e a teoria de negócios internacionais) em um só modelo teórico, mostrando assim que essas duas abordagens teóricas distintas podem na realidade serem complementares.

The impact of past hyperinflation on current household investment behavior

Neste estudo é proposto que a instabilidade macroeconômica extrema causada pela hiperinflação nas décadas de 80 e 90 no Brasil causou um efeito de longo prazo no comportamento de poupança dos indivíduos. Usando dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (PNAD) de 2009 e 2011 e um questionário complementar, encontramos três evidências significantes: (1) indivíduos que possuem memória do período de hiperinflação no Brasil tem uma menor probabilidade de participar do mercado de ações; (2) há uma forte evidência que pessoas que estavam em idade formativa durante a hiperinflação são menos dispostos de possuir algum tipo de instrumento financeiro do que pessoas que tiveram a experiência desse choque macroeconômico em outros períodos de suas vidas; (3) mulheres solteiras são muito mais prováveis de ter uma poupança financeira que homens solteiros.

Some notes about the determination of current account equilibrium real exchange rate and the relation between real exchange rate and productive specialization

The objective of these notes is to present a simple mathematical model of the determination of current account real exchange rate as defined by Bresser-Pereira (2010); i.e. the real exchange rate that guarantees the inter temporal equilibrium of balance of payments and to show the relation between Real Exchange rate and Productive Specialization at theoretical and empirical level.

Construção, caracterização e aplicação de eletrodos para descarga por arco de cátodo oco

The system built to characterize electrodes and, consequently, deposited fine films are constituted by a hollow cathode that works to discharges and low pressures (approximately 10-3 to 5 mbar), a source DC (0 to 1200 V), a cylindrical camera of closed borossilicato for flanges of stainless steel with an association of vacuum bombs mechanical and spread. In the upper flange it is connected the system of hollow cathode, which possesses an entrance of gas and two entrances for its refrigeration, the same is electrically isolated of the rest of the equipment and it is polarized negatively. In front of the system of hollow cathode there is a movable sample in stainless steel with possibility of moving in the horizontal and vertical. In the vertical, the sample can vary its distance between 0 and 70 mm and, in the horizontal, can leave completely from the front of the hollow cathode. The sample and also the cathode hollow are equipped with cromel-alumel termopares with simultaneous reading of the temperatures during the time of treatment. In this work copper electrodes, bronze, titanium, iron, stainless steel, powder of titanium, powder of titanium and silício, glass and ceramic were used. The electrodes were investigated relating their geometry change and behavior of the plasma of the cavity of hollow cathode and channel of the gas. As the cavity of hollow cathode, the analyzed aspects were the diameter and depth. With the channel of the gas, we verified the diameter. In the two situations, we investigated parameters as flow of the gas, pressure, current and applied tension in the electrode, temperature, loss of mass of the electrode with relationship at the time of use. The flow of gas investigated in the electrodes it was fastened in a work strip from 15 to 6 sccm, the constant pressure of work was among 2.7 to 8 x 10-2 mbar. The applied current was among a strip of work from 0,8 to 0,4 A, and their respective tensions were in a strip from 400 to 220 V. Fixing the value of the current, it was possible to lift the curve of the behavior of the tension with the time of use. That curves esteem in that time of use of the electrode to its efficiency is maximum. The temperatures of the electrodes were in the dependence of that curves showing a maximum temperature when the tension was maximum, yet the measured temperatures in the samples showed to be sensitive the variation of the temperature in the electrodes. An accompaniment of the loss of mass of the electrode relating to its time of use showed that the electrodes that appeared the spherical cavities lost more mass in comparison with the electrodes in that didn't appear. That phenomenon is only seen for pressures of 10-2 mbar, in these conditions a plasma column is formed inside of the channel of the gas and in certain points it is concentrated in form of spheres. Those spherical cavities develop inside of the channel of the gas spreading during the whole extension of the channel of the gas. The used electrodes were cut after they could not be more used, however among those electrodes, films that were deposited in alternate times and the electrodes that were used to deposit films in same times, those films were deposited in the glass substrata, alumina, stainless steel 420, stainless steel 316, silício and steel M2. As the eletros used to deposit films in alternate time as the ones that they were used to deposit in same times, the behavior of the thickness of the film obeyed the curve of the tension with relationship the time of use of the electrode, that is, when the tension was maximum, the thickness of the film was also maximum and when the tension was minimum, the thickness was minimum and in the case where the value of the tension was constant, the thickness of the film tends to be constant. The fine films that were produced they had applications with nano stick, bio-compatibility, cellular growth, inhibition of bacterias, cut tool, metallic leagues, brasagem, pineapple fiber and ornamental. In those films it was investigated the thickness, the adherence and the uniformity characterized by sweeping electronic microscopy. Another technique developed to assist the production and characterization of the films produced in that work was the caloteste. It uses a sphere and abrasive to mark the sample with a cap impression, with that cap form it is possible to calculate the thickness of the film. Through the time of life of the cathode, it was possible to evaluate the rate of waste of its material for the different work conditions. Values of waste rate up to 3,2 x 10-6 g/s were verified. For a distance of the substratum of 11 mm, the deposited film was limited to a circular area of 22 mm diameter mm for high pressures and a circular area of 75 mm for pressure strip. The obtained films presented thickness around 2,1 µm, showing that the discharge of arch of hollow cathode in argon obeys a curve characteristic of the tension with the time of life of the eletrodo. The deposition rate obtained in this system it is of approximately 0,18 µm/min