Ramprogram solfångarutveckling och systematik. FoU 1997-1999. Slutrapport BFR projekt 19960605

Man kan förbättra energibesparingen på årsbasis för ett traditionellt svenskt kombisolvärmesystem från knappt 20 % för ett referenssystem till över 25 %. Alla de studerade systemen har 10 m2 solfångare, lika stor tank, och samma värme- och tappvarmvattenlast. Skillnaderna består endast i systemutformning. Arbetet har utförts genom mätningar i värmelaboratorium och simuleringsberäkningar. Inom området optisk design av solenergisystem har metoder utvecklats för: - analys av solinstråningens himmelsfordelning och asymmetriska årsfordelning - optimering av sollangare med reflektorer - optimering av solceller med tillsatsreflektorer Programmet PRESIM, grafisk indatabehandlare till simuleringsprogrammet TRNSYS, har vidareutvecklats i linje med användarnas önskemål, men förutsättningarna för fortsatt utveckling har försämrats. En förbättrad version, delvis finansierad av Statens energimyndighet och anpassad till TRNSYS 15.0, kommer att släppas under år 2000, men därefter kommer aktiviteten att ligga på en lägre nivå.

Provning av ackumulatorsystem för solvärmeanläggningar

Inom projektet provades 10 konfigurationer av samma ackumulatortank. Tankarna utsattes under kontrollerade förhållanden för en 6-dagars testcykel. Under testet tillfördes varje tank värme från en (simulerad) solfångare och, i den mån det behövdes, tillsatsvärme från elpatronen. Väderförhållanden under de sex dagarna var två fina, en växlande, två dåliga och ytterligare en växlande dag i nämnd följd. De flesta systemkonfigurationer klarade sig under de soliga dagarna utan energitillskott från elpatronen och förmådde dessutom att lagra värnlen så att även tappningar på följande dag med "växlande" väder kunde ske utan el-tillskott. De molniga dagarna behövde alla systemkonfigurationer el-tillskott. Solvärmesystemens täckningsgrad varierade mellan 36,5 % för det sämsta systemet till 70, 3 % för det bästa. En ackumulatortank med två seriekopplade tappvarmvattenvärmeväxIare (en i botten för förvärmning och en i tankens övre del för slutvärmning) ger betydligt bättre resultat än en tank med bara en enda sådan värmeväxlare. Tankens volym var i de utförda provningarna 750 liter, solfångarstorleken 10 m2 och lasten 13 kWh per dag. För dessa förutsättningar ger en yttre solvärmeväxlare inga mätbara fördelar gentemot en tillräcklig stor inbyggd värmeväxlare. De gjorda försöken visar, att alla tankkonfigurationerna visar dålig skiktning. Ett fortsatt arbete bör göras för att minska omblandningen i tanken vid både inladdning och uttag av värme.

Simulation of Photovoltaic Panel Production as Complement to Ground Source Heat Pump System

This master thesis presents a new technological combination of two environmentally friendly sources of energy in order to provide DHW, and space heating. Solar energy is used for space heating, and DHW production using PV modules which supply direct current directly to electrical heating elements inside a water storage tank. On the other hand a GSHP system as another source of renewable energy provides heat in the water storage tank of the system in order to provide DHW and space heating. These two sources of renewable energy have been combined in this case-study in order to obtain a more efficient system, which will reduce the amount of electricity consumed by the GSHP system.The key aim of this study is to make simulations, and calculations of the amount ofelectrical energy that can be expected to be produced by a certain amount of PV modules that are already assembled on a house in Vantaa, southern Finland. This energy is then intended to be used as a complement to produce hot water in the heating system of the house beside the original GSHP system. Thus the amount of electrical energy purchased from the grid should be reduced and the compressor in the GSHP would need fewer starts which would reduce the heating cost of the GSHP system for space heating and providing hot water.The produced energy by the PV arrays in three different circuits will be charged directly to three electrical heating elements in the water storage tank of the existing system to satisfy the demand of the heating elements. The excess energy can be used to heat the water in the water storage tank to some extent which leads to a reduction of electricity consumption by the different components of the GSHP system.To increase the efficiency of the existing hybrid system, optimization of different PV configurations have been accomplished, and the results are compared. Optimization of the arrays in southern and western walls shows a DC power increase of 298 kWh/year compared with the existing PV configurations. Comparing the results from the optimization of the arrays on the western roof if the intention is to feed AC power to the components of the GSHP system shows a yearly AC power production of 1,646 kWh.This is with the consideration of no overproduction by the PV modules during the summer months. This means the optimized PV systems will be able to cover a larger part of summer demand compared with the existing system.

Economic Evaluation of a Solar Charged Thermal Energy Store for Space Heating

A thermal energy store corrects the misalignment of heating demand in the winter relative to solar thermal energy gathered in the summer. This thesis reviews the viability of a solar charged hot water tank thermal energy store for a school at latitude 56.25N, longitude -120.85W

Provningsmetod för sol- och biovärmesystem : Systemprestanda och emissionsdata

SP i Borås och SERC, Högskolan Dalarna har i samverkan tagit fram en systemprovnings-metod där kompletta sol- och pelletsvärmesystem har provats i laboratorium under sex dygn. Plus två inledande dygn för termisk stabilisering av systemet. Provningen innefattar verklig-hetstrogna lastfall för två sommardagar, två vinterdagar, och två vår/höstdagar. Syftet är att få fram information om systemets helårsprestanda och systemfunktion genom en kortare tids provning. Vid mätningarna som genomförts vid Högskolan Dalarna har syftet också varit att undersöka systemens emissionsprestanda. Emissionsmätningarna ingår normalt inte i system-provningen, eftersom det skulle öka kostnaderna för att genomföra proven. Ett komplett system inklusive regulatorer provas med undantag för solfångaren, som utgörs av en dator-styrd rigg för att kunna skapa en repeterbar solvärmemängd från en systemspecifik solfångar-krets.Totalt har sju olika sol-pelletsystem provats samt ett referenssystem som utgörs av en kombi-panna utan solvärme. Dessutom har det inom projektet genomförts en jämförande provning mellan SP och Högskolan Dalarna på samma system. Provningsmetoden som utvecklats i detta projekt har visat sig kunna uppfylla målen, det vill säga kunna jämföra systemprestanda mellan olika system och uppskatta årsprestandan. Till detta har även eventuella driftsproblem i systemen kunnat identifieras så att dessa kan åtgärdas och systemen förbättras. För att förbättra provningsmetoden och öka noggrannheten i utvärderingen föreslås ett antal åtgärder inför en fortsatt provning. De viktigaste förändringarna är att se till att pannans och systemets laddstatus är så lika som möjligt vid början av sexdagarssekvensen, liksom vid sekvensens slut. Detta kräver två olika åtgärder: dels att de inledande två dygnen är identiska med de sista två dygnen och att panna triggas igång ett par timmar innan sekvensens början och slut, så att risken minskar att pannan levererar värme till tanken vid sekvensens början och slut. Vidare föreslås att en ny metod skall användas för att mäta värmeavgivningen till rummet från kaminer och att dess noggrannhet undersöks.För att åstadkomma exakt rätt last och solvärmetillskott vid provningen skall riggen använda en teknik med kontinuerlig kompensation av last och solvärmetillskott så att uppmätt och önskad energimängd alltid blir densamma i alla provningar. Detta förenklar även handhavan-det vid provningen och underlättar utvärderingen. För att kunna ge bättre återkoppling och kunna ge råd till hur systemen skall förbättras bör tanktemperaturen alltid mätas i några punk-ter och att förlustkoefficienter för panna och tank tas fram genom ett separat avsvalningsprov.Systemprovningen visar generellt att det är gynnsamt att kombinera pelleteldning med sol-värme. Pelletpannor har en låg verkningsgrad under låglastperioden och med solvärme kan pannan stängas av när driftsförutsättningarna är som sämst. Hög pannverkningsgrad liksom en väl fungerande ackumulatortank och styrsystem har visat sig vara avgörande för att erhålla höga systemprestanda i denna provningsmetod. Pannverk-ningsgraden över mätperioden är betydligt lägre än för motsvarande pannor under stationär drift på full effekt. Detta beror på att driftstiden för brännaren endast utgör en liten del av hela provningsperioden och därför blir pannans egenskaper under stilleståndsperioderna desto viktigare för systemets prestanda. Under stilleståndsperioderna är det värmeförlusterna till rummet som är avgörande för prestandan, medan värmeförlusterna har en försumbar inverkan på verkningsgraden när pannan eldas på full effekt enligt provningsmetoden för pannor EN 303-5. Resultaten pekar alltså på att de normala prestandaprovningarna för pannor enligt EN 303-5 inte ger någon garanti för att pannan är effektiv under verklighetstrogen drift och att provning vid stationär effekt inte heller styr utvecklingen mot bättre isolerade pannor och därmed effektivare sol- och biovärmesystem.Solfångarens prestanda och storlek har också relativt liten inverkan på den totala systempres-tandan. Solfångarprovning som garanterar solfångarens prestanda är viktigt för att garantera solfångarnas kvalitet och prestanda, men alltså inte på något sätt avgörande för att uppnå höga årsprestanda i kombinerade sol- och biobränslesystem Det finns uppenbarligen en stor förbätt-ringspotential för denna typ av system och den utvecklade provmetoden är ett mycket viktigt redskap för att effektivisera sol- och biovärmesystem.Emissionsfaktorer redovisade som medelvärde för hela provningssekvensen (sex dygn) var mellan 192 och 547 mg/MJ för CO, mellan 61 och 95 mg/MJ för NO, mellan 6 och 45 mg/MJ för TOC och mellan 31 och 116 mg/MJ för partiklar. För CO och NO ligger värdena inom de intervall som redovisas från forskningsprogrammet "biobränsle hälsa och miljö BHM. Upp-mätt medelkoncentration av kolväten och partiklar ligger betydligt högre än de emissionsfak-torer som redovisas av BHM.Andelen av emissionerna som släpps ut under start/stopp sekvenserna ligger mellan 63 och 96 % för CO-utsläppen och mellan 48 och 93 % av TOC-utsläppen. För partiklar är motsvarande andel mellan 30 och 39 % och för NO endast 10 till 21 %. Det betyder att styrningen av brän-naren och emissionskarakteristiken under start/stopp-blir mycket avgörande för hur mycket CO och TOC som släpps ut och att nuvarande metoder för miljömärkning av pelletpannor som baseras på stationära mätningar enligt EN 303-5 inte leder till att emissioner av CO och TOC minimeras på årsbasis.

System Integration of PV/T Collectors in Solar Cooling Systems

The demand for cooling and air-conditioning of building is increasingly ever growing. This increase is mostly due to population and economic growth in developing countries, and also desire for a higher quality of thermal comfort. Increase in the use of conventional cooling systems results in larger carbon footprint and more greenhouse gases considering their higher electricity consumption, and it occasionally creates peaks in electricity demand from power supply grid. Solar energy as a renewable energy source is an alternative to drive the cooling machines since the cooling load is generally high when solar radiation is high. This thesis examines the performance of PV/T solar collector manufactured by Solarus company in a solar cooling system for an office building in Dubai, New Delhi, Los Angeles and Cape Town. The study is carried out by analyzing climate data and the requirements for thermal comfort in office buildings. Cooling systems strongly depend on weather conditions and local climate. Cooling load of buildings depend on many parameters such as ambient temperature, indoor comfort temperature, solar gain to the building and internal gains including; number of occupant and electrical devices. The simulations were carried out by selecting a suitable thermally driven chiller and modeling it with PV/T solar collector in Polysun software. Fractional primary energy saving and solar fraction were introduced as key figures of the project to evaluate the performance of cooling system. Several parametric studies and simulations were determined according to PV/T aperture area and hot water storage tank volume. The fractional primary energy saving analysis revealed that thermally driven chillers, particularly adsorption chillers are not suitable to be utilizing in small size of solar cooling systems in hot and tropic climates such as Dubai and New Delhi. Adsorption chillers require more thermal energy to meet the cooling load in hot and dry climates. The adsorption chillers operate in their full capacity and in higher coefficient of performance when they run in a moderate climate since they can properly reject the exhaust heat. The simulation results also indicated that PV/T solar collector have higher efficiency in warmer climates, however it requires a larger size of PV/T collectors to supply the thermally driven chillers for providing cooling in hot climates. Therefore using an electrical chiller as backup gives much better results in terms of primary energy savings, since PV/T electrical production also can be used for backup electrical chiller in a net metering mechanism.

Emissions from realistic operation of residential wood pellets heating systems

Emissions from residential combustion appliances vary significantly depending on the firing behaviours and combustion conditions, in addition to combustion technologies and fuel quality. Although wood pellet combustion in residential heating boilers is efficient, the combustion conditions during start-up and stop phases are not optimal and produce significantly high emissions such as carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon from incomplete combustion. The emissions from the start-up and stop phases of the pellet boilers are not fully taken into account in test methods for ecolabels which primarily focus on emissions during operation on full load and part load. The objective of the thesis is to investigate the emission characteristics during realistic operation of residential wood pellet boilers in order to identify when the major part of the annual emissions occur. Emissions from four residential wood pellet boilers were measured and characterized for three operating phases (start-up, steady and stop). Emissions from realistic operation of combined solar and wood pellet heating systems was continuously measured to investigate the influence of start-up and stop phases on total annual emissions. Measured emission data from the pellet devices were used to build an emission model to predict the annual emission factors from the dynamic operation of the heating system using the simulation software TRNSYS. Start-up emissions are found to vary with ignition type, supply of air and fuel, and time to complete the phase. Stop emissions are influenced by fan operation characteristics and the cleaning routine. Start-up and stop phases under realistic operation conditions contribute 80 – 95% of annual carbon monoxide (CO) emission, 60 – 90% total hydrocarbon (TOC), 10 – 20% of nitrogen oxides (NO), and 30 – 40% particles emissions. Annual emission factors from realistic operation of tested residential heating system with a top fed wood pelt boiler can be between 190 and 400 mg/MJ for the CO emissions, between 60 and 95 mg/MJ for the NO, between 6 and 25 mg/MJ for the TOC, between 30 and 116 mg/MJ for the particulate matter and between 2x10-13 /MJ and 4x10-13 /MJ for the number of particles. If the boiler has the cleaning sequence with compressed air such as in boiler B2, annual CO emission factor can be up to 550 mg/MJ. Average CO, TOC and particles emissions under realistic annual condition were greater than the limits values of two eco labels. These results highlight the importance of start-up and stop phases in annual emission factors (especially CO and TOC). Since a large or dominating part of the annual emissions in real operation arise from the start-up and stop sequences, test methods required by the ecolabels should take these emissions into account. In this way it will encourage the boiler manufacturers to minimize annual emissions. The annual emissions of residential pellet heating system can be reduced by optimizing the number of start-ups of the pellet boiler. It is possible to reduce up to 85% of the number of start-ups by optimizing the system design and its controller such as switching of the boiler pump after it stops, using two temperature sensors for boiler ON/OFF control, optimizing of the positions of the connections to the storage tank, increasing the mixing valve temperature in the boiler circuit and decreasing the pump flow rate. For 85 % reduction of start-ups, 75 % of CO and TOC emission factors were reduced while 13% increase in NO and 15 % increase in particle emissions was observed.

The Key Role of the School Principal’s Leadership in the Schooling of Newly Arrived Immigrant Pupils in Sweden : Experiences from an Interactive Action Research Project

When newly immigrated children and young people begin school in Sweden, certain challengesarise. These may result from weak Swedish-language skills and different schooling backgrounds,as well as organizational and pedagogical limitations in the schools. This generates demands onschool leaders to lead and develop the organization and teachers competences to meet these pupils’needs. This situation was behind the initiation of the project “New Immigrants and Learning—Competence Development for Teachers and School Principals.” The project ran in schools infour Swedish municipalities, its aim was to develop leadership, organizational and pedagogicalskills that would facilitate the schooling and integration of newly arrived pupils. This article aimsto describe and discuss a Participant Action Research (PAR) based on a think tank and researchcircles, drawing special attention to the role of the school leaders. It will also examine whether theresearch circles and the project overall served to develop educational and intercultural leadership,organizational conditions, collegial learning, pedagogical methods and competence in terms ofschooling for this pupil group.

Predator Survival Tactics and Use of Habitat Cover in Rana Catesbeiana.

Predator-prey relationships are an important aspect of the natural world, and, because of its relevance to survival and natural selection, is an interesting relationship to study. In amphibian larvae, level of activity and landscape use are often what determines the survival as prey. I studied the anti-predator behavior of the North American bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) tadpoles when presented with dragonfly (Aeshna) larvae, a known predator of tadpoles. Tadpoles were acclimated to four different habitats with varying degrees of habitat cover, and were transferred to a new habitat with a degree of cover equal to one of the acclimation tanks. A restrained predator, and thus its chemical cue, was introduced, and the behavior, particularly the use of the habitat cover to hide from the perceived risk of predation was observed. A significantly higher frequency of inactivity was found in tank I than in II and III, and inactivity followed a general trend of decreasing with increasing habitat cover. Difference in tank cover was not found to have a significant effect on swimming behavior, but did have a significant effect on hiding behavior, which increased with higher availability. Foraging decreased significantly with the addition of a predator, but did not vary significantly with different levels of cover. Hiding behavior and reducing conspicuous behaviors (like foraging) are probably the behaviors that afford the tadpole the most success at eluding a predator in their natural environment.

Hydrodynamic Simulations Of Vacuum-Driven Storage Tanks

As a result of urbanization, stormwater runoff flow rates and volumes are significantly increased due to increasing impervious land cover and the decreased availability of depression storage. Storage tanks are the basic devices to efficiently control the flow rate in drainage systems during wet weather. Presented in the paper conception of vacuum-driven detention tanks allows to increase the storage capacity by usage of space above the free surface water elevation at the inlet channel. Partial vacuum storage makes possible to gain cost savings by reduction of both the horizontal area of the detention tank and necessary depth of foundations. Simulation model of vacuum-driven storage tank has been developed to estimate potential profits of its application in urban drainage system. Although SWMM5 has no direct options for vacuum tanks an existing functions (i.e. control rules) have been used to reflect its operation phases. Rainfall data used in simulations were recorded at raingage in Czestochowa during years 2010÷2012 with time interval of 10minutes. Simulation results gives overview to practical operation and maintenance cost (energy demand) of vacuum driven storage tanks depending of the ratio: vacuum-driven volume to total storage capacity. The following conclusion can be drawn from this investigations: vacuum-driven storage tanks are characterized by uncomplicated construction and control systems, thus can be applied in newly developed as well as in the existing urban drainage systems. the application of vacuum in underground detention facilities makes possible to increase of the storage capacity of existing reservoirs by usage the space above the maximum depth. Possible increase of storage capacity can achieve even a few dozen percent at relatively low investment costs. vacuum driven storage tanks can be included in existing simulation software (i.e. SWMM) using options intended for pumping stations (including control and action rules ).

Decision Tree Classification Model In Water Supply Network

With the service life of water supply network (WSN) growth, the growing phenomenon of aging pipe network has become exceedingly serious. As urban water supply network is hidden underground asset, it is difficult for monitoring staff to make a direct classification towards the faults of pipe network by means of the modern detecting technology. In this paper, based on the basic property data (e.g. diameter, material, pressure, distance to pump, distance to tank, load, etc.) of water supply network, decision tree algorithm (C4.5) has been carried out to classify the specific situation of water supply pipeline. Part of the historical data was used to establish a decision tree classification model, and the remaining historical data was used to validate this established model. Adopting statistical methods were used to access the decision tree model including basic statistical method, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Recall-Precision Curves (RPC). These methods has been successfully used to assess the accuracy of this established classification model of water pipe network. The purpose of classification model was to classify the specific condition of water pipe network. It is important to maintain the pipeline according to the classification results including asset unserviceable (AU), near perfect condition (NPC) and serious deterioration (SD). Finally, this research focused on pipe classification which plays a significant role in maintaining water supply networks in the future.

Desenvolvimento de um programa de simulação computacional de sistemas de aquecimento solar para água

Esta Tese apresenta uma análise do comportamento térmico de um sistema de aquecimento solar operando por termossifão. Neste tipo de sistema o fluido no coletor solar é circulado por convecção natural, que acontece devido à diferença de massa específica da água ao longo circuito. Nestes sistemas a vazão mássica varia ao longo do dia e do ano, dependendo, dentre outros fatores, da irradiância solar absorvida, do perfil de temperaturas da água no sistema, da geometria, do volume e do perfil de demanda de água quente. Para uma avaliação detalhada do comportamento térmico de aquecedores solares operando por termossifão foram realizados ensaios experimentais e cálculos teóricos. Os resultados dos experimentos concordaram com aqueles apresentados na literatura e sua análise fundamentou o desenvolvimento do aplicativo TermoSim, um programa de simulação computacional do comportamento térmico de sistemas de aquecimento de água com energia solar. O tratamento matemático adotado no TermoSim compreende a modelagem dos coletores solares de acordo com a teoria de Hottel-Bliss-Whillier. O reservatório térmico é modelado com estratificação térmica, convecção e condução entre as camadas. A vazão mássica é obtida a partir do balanço da quantidade de movimento no circuito. Os modelos matemáticos empregados na construção do aplicativo TermoSim foram validados através do confronto dos resultados simulados com medidas experimentais. Foi demonstrado que a utilização destes modelos é adequada e permite reproduzir com precisão o comportamento térmico dos coletores solares e do reservatório térmico. Além do programa TermoSim, foi também desenvolvido o programa TermoDim, que é uma ferramenta para o dimensionamento de sistemas de aquecimento solar, que requer apenas o conhecimento dos parâmetros geométricos do sistema, dados meteorológicos em média mensal e informação a respeito do volume de demanda. O TermoDim é apropriado para estimar o desempenho de aquecedores solares operando por termossifão com tanques verticais e horizontais. O método de dimensionamento do TermoDim é baseado na correlação para a eficiência média mensal obtida neste trabalho a partir de um grande número de simulações.

Criatividade em educação escolar: estudo de caso

Este trabalho consiste em um estudo sobre a criatividade na escola, tendo como base teórica os estudos de Guilford, Torrance e Kneller, dentre outros, e em uma investigação prática realizada em um colégio particular localizado em são Luis (MA) , que se propõe a desenvolver as capacidades criativas dos alunos. O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a importância que os professores atribuem às atividades que possibilitam a criação e analisar, através da metodologia adotada pelos professores, se os fatores facilitadores da criatividade, segundo Kneller, estão sendo desenvolvidos em sala de aula e, a partir daí, levantar subsídias para novos trabalhos de pesquisa. Foram realizadas entrevistas com professores de 1o grau (8a. série) e de 2o grau (la. e 2a. séries},além de observação de sua atuação em classe. Os dados coletados foram analisados segundo os componentes criativos de Guilford e os fatores facilitadores da criatividade de Kneller. Os resultados foram confrontados com a proposta do colégio. Concluiu-se que os professores estudados têm conhecimento teórico sobre a necessidade de tornar o ensino mais interessante e dinâmico, através de atividades consideradas por eles como capazes de desenvolver as capacidades criativas. Na prática, porém, observou-se que as aulas, em geral, eram expositivas, com predominância de informação unilateral por parte dos professores, que pareciam empenhados apenas em transmitir o conteúdo da disciplina que ensinavam, não criando oportunidade para desenvolver o pensamento criativo dos alunos. Verificou-se também que os professores encontram dificuldades para realizar sua prática pedagógica visando-a o processo ensino-aprendizagem-criatividade. Entre essas dificuldades, incluem-se o grande número de alunos nas turmas, a utilização de livros que contêm basicamente exercícios de fixação e a pouca aceitação pelos alunos de alguns dos livros adotados pelo colégio. Com base na análise dos resultados da aplicação dos instrumentos, levantou-se a hipótese de estar havendo problemas na relação professor-aluno, causados principalmente pela ação didática de alguns professores. Observou-se que o objetivo maior da escola - promover uma educação criativa e dinâmica, procurando desenvolver uma atitude criativa-critica-reflexiva - não está sendo seguido na prática. A conclusão é a de que, além de um ambiente que favoreça a criatividade, a escola precisa também de professores que permitam a livre manifestação do potencial criativo dos alunos e, para isso, torna-se necessário ao professor aceitar e valorizar o individuo criativo.

O futuro das ideias: análise estrutural & incertezas-críticas prospectivas para think tanks

O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar as incertezas-críticas prospectivas para fhínk fanks, importante subsídio na elaboração de cenários prospectivos para essas organizações. O enfoque é qualitativo: os dados, coletados por bibliografia e em entrevistas com executivos estratégicos da Fundação Getulio Vargas e especialistas internacionais, foram tratados pelo método da Análise Estrutural. Para tanto, utilizouse o Modelo URCA (MARQUES, 1988). Acredita-se tratar de abordagem inédita na área, pois registro de Análises Prospectivas para thínk tanks não foram localizados. A base teórica analisa diversas definições e classificações de fhínk fanks, identifica atributos comuns a tais conceitos e, a partir deste referencial, apresenta a definição de thínk tank, objeto deste estudo. Em seguida, a partir dos dados coletados, são descritas 21 variáveis prospectivas. Essa lista inicial de variáveis é submetida ao Modelo URCA de Análise Estrutural, gerando, como resultado, oito incertezascríticas prospectivas para thínk fanks: Internacionalização de thínk fanks; Globalização da agenda; Projeção internacional das nações; Concorrência entre thínk tanks; Concorrência de organizações não-governamentais, consultorias, web e similares; Quadro técnico; Corpo dirigente; e Diversificação e sustentação financeiras.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.