Outward foreign direct investment and human capital development:A small country perspective

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the pattern of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by Irish MNCs, and more specifically, to investigate their approach to human capital development and how these correspond to foreign MNCs in Ireland. In particular, it seeks to investigate training and development expenditure, adoption of succession planning, use of formal development programmes for senior management "potential", and also the presence of a specific "key group" development programme. Design/methodology/approach - Data were obtained through the largest, most representative study ever conducted on multinational companies (MNCs) in Ireland. The most senior human resources practitioner in these firms completed a questionnaire, through the personal interview medium, on various facets of their human resource management (HRM) practices. In total 260 usable interviews were completed equating to an overall response rate of 63 per cent. This represents a 78 per cent response rate for Irish MNCs, the primary focus of this paper, and 60 per cent for foreign MNCs. Findings - Overall, Irish MNCs tend to compare favourably with their foreign counterparts in terms of the human capital development mechanisms examined. Only one statistically significant association was found regarding differences between Irish and foreign owned MNCs, Irish MNCs were found to be significantly less likely to have formal management development programmes. Originality/value - The study is the first large scale, representative survey to be conducted on MNCs in Ireland helping to address the research lacuna on Irish owned MNCs. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Prevalence and Causes of Prescribing ErrorsL The PRescribing Outcomes for Trainee Doctors Engaged in Clinical Training (PROTECT) Study

Objectives: Study objectives were to investigate the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors amongst foundation doctors (i.e. junior doctors in their first (F1) or second (F2) year of post-graduate training), describe their knowledge and experience of prescribing errors, and explore their self-efficacy (i.e. confidence) in prescribing.

Method: A three-part mixed-methods design was used, comprising: prospective observational study; semi-structured interviews and cross-sectional survey. All doctors prescribing in eight purposively selected hospitals in Scotland participated. All foundation doctors throughout Scotland participated in the survey. The number of prescribing errors per patient, doctor, ward and hospital, perceived causes of errors and a measure of doctors’ self-efficacy were established.

Results: 4710 patient charts and 44,726 prescribed medicines were reviewed. There were 3364 errors, affecting 1700 (36.1%) charts (overall error rate: 7.5%; F1:7.4%; F2:8.6%; consultants:6.3%). Higher error rates were associated with : teaching hospitals (p,0.001), surgical (p = ,0.001) or mixed wards (0.008) rather thanmedical ward, higher patient turnover wards (p,0.001), a greater number of prescribed medicines (p,0.001) and the months December and June (p,0.001). One hundred errors were discussed in 40 interviews. Error causation was multi-factorial; work environment and team factors were particularly noted. Of 548 completed questionnaires (national response rate of 35.4%), 508 (92.7% of respondents) reported errors, most of which (328 (64.6%) did not reach the patient. Pressure from other staff, workload and interruptions were cited as the main causes of errors. Foundation year 2 doctors reported greater confidence than year 1 doctors in deciding the most appropriate medication regimen.

Conclusions: Prescribing errors are frequent and of complex causation. Foundation doctors made more errors than other doctors, but undertook the majority of prescribing, making them a key target for intervention. Contributing causes included work environment, team, task, individual and patient factors. Further work is needed to develop and assess interventions that address these.

Re-challenge chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus carboplatin in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Despite recent improvements to current therapies and the emergence of novel agents to manage advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the patients' overall survival remains poor. Re-challenging with first-line chemotherapy upon relapse is common in the management of small cell lung cancer but is not well reported for advanced NSCLC. NSCLC relapse has been attributed to acquired drug resistance, but the repopulation of sensitive clones may also play a role, in which case re-challenge may be appropriate. Here, we report the results of re-challenge with gemcitabine plus carboplatin in 22 patients from a single institution who had previously received gemcitabine plus platinum in the first-line setting and had either partial response or a progression-free interval of longer than 6 months. In this retrospective study, the charts of patients who underwent second-line chemotherapy for NSCLC in our cancer center between January 2005 and April 2010 were reviewed. All the patients who received a combination of gemcitabine and carboplatin for re-challenge were included in the study. These patients were offered second-line treatment on confirmation of clear radiological disease progression. The overall response rate was 15% and disease control rate was 75%. The median survival time was 10.4 months, with 46% of patients alive at 1 year. These results suggest that re-challenge chemotherapy should be considered in selected patients with radiological partial response or a progression-free survival of longer than 6 months to the initial therapy.

Efficient, Scalable, and Solvent-free Mechanochemical Synthesis of the OLED Material Alq(3) (q=8-Hydroxyquinolinate)

The aluminum complex Alq(3) (q = 8-hydroxyquinolinate), which has important applications in organic light-emitting diode materials, is shown to be readily synthesized as a pure phase under solvent-free mechanochemical conditions from Al(OAc)(2)OH and 8-hydroxyquinoline by ball milling. The initial product of the mechanochemical synthesis is a novel acetic acid solvate of Alq(3), and the alpha polymorph of Alq(3) is obtained on subsequent heating/desolvation of this phase. The structure of the mechanochemically prepared acetic acid solvate of Alq(3) has been determined directly from powder X-ray diffraction data and is shown to be a different polymorph from the corresponding acetic acid solvate prepared by solution-state crystallization of Alq(3) from acetic acid. Significantly, the mechanochemical synthesis of Alq(3) is shown to be fully scalable across two orders of magnitude from 0.5 to 50 g scale. The Alq(3) sample obtained from the solvent-free mechanochemical synthesis is analytically pure and exhibits identical photoluminescence behavior to that of a sample prepared by the conventional synthetic route.

Thermosensitive hydrogels of poly(methyl vinyl ether-co-maleic anhydride) - Pluronic (R) F127 copolymers for controlled protein release

Thermosensitive hydrogels are of a great interest due to their many biomedical and pharmaceutical applications. In this study, we synthesized a new series of random poly (methyl vinyl ether-co-maleic anhydride) (Gantrez (R) AN, GZ) and Pluronic (R) F127 (PF127) copolymers (GZ-PF127), that formed thermosensitive hydrogels whose gelation temperature and mechanical properties could be controlled by the molar ratio of GZ and PF127 polymers and the copolymer concentration in water. Gelation temperatures tended to decrease when the GZm/PF127 ratio increased. Thus, at a fixed GZm/PF127 value, sol-gel temperatures decreased at higher copolymer concentrations. Moreover, these hydrogels controlled the release of proteins such as bovine serum albumin (BSA) and recombinant recombinant kinetoplastid membrane protein of Leishmania (rKMP-11) more than the PF127 system. Toxicity studies carried out in J774.2 macrophages showed that cell viability was higher than 80%. Finally, histopathological analysis revealed that subcutaneous administration of low volumes of these hydrogels elicited a tolerable inflammatory response that could be useful to induce immune responses against the protein cargo in the development of vaccine adjuvants.

Barriers to Goals of Care Discussions With Seriously Ill Hospitalized Patients and Their Families: A Multicenter Survey of Clinicians

Importance: Seriously ill hospitalized patients have identified communication and decision making about goals of care as high priorities for quality improvement in end-of-life care. Interventions to improve care are more likely to succeed if tailored to existing barriers.

Objective: To determine, from the perspective of hospital-based clinicians, (1) barriers impeding communication and decision making about goals of care with seriously ill hospitalized patients and their families and (2) their own willingness and the acceptability for other clinicians to engage in this process.

Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter survey of medical teaching units of nurses, internal medicine residents, and staff physicians from participating units at 13 university-based hospitals from 5 Canadian provinces.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Importance of 21 barriers to goals of care discussions rated on a 7-point scale (1 = extremely unimportant; 7 = extremely important).

Results: Between September 2012 and March 2013, questionnaires were returned by 1256 of 1617 eligible clinicians, for an overall response rate of 77.7% (512 of 646 nurses [79.3%], 484 of 634 residents [76.3%], 260 of 337 staff physicians [77.2%]). The following family member-related and patient-related factors were consistently identified by all 3 clinician groups as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions: family members' or patients' difficulty accepting a poor prognosis (mean [SD] score, 5.8 [1.2] and 5.6 [1.3], respectively), family members' or patients' difficulty understanding the limitations and complications of life-sustaining treatments (5.8 [1.2] for both groups), disagreement among family members about goals of care (5.8 [1.2]), and patients' incapacity to make goals of care decisions (5.6 [1.2]). Clinicians perceived their own skills and system factors as less important barriers. Participants viewed it as acceptable for all clinician groups to engage in goals of care discussions-including a role for advance practice nurses, nurses, and social workers to initiate goals of care discussions and be a decision coach.

Conclusions and Relevance: Hospital-based clinicians perceive family member-related and patient-related factors as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions. All health care professionals were viewed as playing important roles in addressing goals of care. These findings can inform the design of future interventions to improve communication and decision making about goals of care.

Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide and Rituximab:an effective chemoimmunotherapy combination with high remission rates for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

BACKGROUND: Combined Fludarabine and Cyclophosphamide is now standard first-line therapy in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and the addition of Rituximab improves outcome.

METHODS: We adopted a modified Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide and Rituximab (FCR) protocol in treating 39 patients (median age 57 years) with progressive or advanced CLL. Depending on CR, treatment was given for four or six cycles.

RESULT: Twenty-six patients were treatment naïve and 13 were pre-treated. Twelve patients had progressive Binet stage A, 16 stage B and 11 stage C disease. The overall response rate (ORR) was 100%, with 75% achieving CR. Neutropenia was the major toxicity in 71/187 (38%) of the cycles. There were five deaths, two from infection and three from progressive disease. Twenty-six of 31 patients have maintained their post-treatment disease status for a median of 17 months (2-41).

CONCLUSION: We conclude that FCR is a feasible, well-tolerated and effective treatment for patients with CLL.

Donor type microchimerism is an infrequent event following liver transplantation and is not associated with graft acceptance

Donor-type microchimerism, the presence of a minority population of donor-derived haematopoietic cells following solid organ transplantation, has been postulated as a mechanism for induction of donor-specific graft tolerance. The stability, frequency, and relevance of microchimerism with respect to long-term outcome, however, remains uncertain. Using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method of microsatellite analysis of highly polymorphic short tandem repeat sequences (STRs) to detect donor-type cells, DNA from 11 patients was analyzed prospectively at specific time points for 12 months following liver transplantation, and from a further six patients retrospectively 2 years after liver transplantation. Using a panel of STRs, transient peripheral blood donor microchimerism was detected in 2 of 11 patients at a single time-point following transplantation, but persistent evidence of donor-derived cells was not observed during the study period. Analysis of DNA extracted from skin and duodenum in two patients likewise failed to show donor-type cells at these sites. None of the six patients in the retrospective arm showed donor microchimerism, resulting in an overall detection rate of 1.58%. These results suggest that donor microchimerism following liver transplantation is an infrequent event, and that the generation of graft tolerance is independent of microchimerism.

Outcomes of surgical bleb revision for complications of trabeculectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the results of revision surgery for complications of trabeculectomy in a case series from an academic glaucoma service. DESIGN: Retrospective case series. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 177 eyes of 167 adult patients who underwent revision of trabeculectomy at the Wilmer Eye Institute between 1994 and 2007. METHODS: Three indications for surgery were identified: hypotony without leak, bleb leak, and bleb dysesthesia. Revision was deemed successful when all of the following were true: the primary indication was eliminated, further intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering surgery was not required, no major complication occurred, and a new bleb-related problem did not develop. Patients with less than 3 months of follow-up were excluded unless failure occurred earlier. Surgical procedures included variations on excision of thin or leaking conjunctiva with advancement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in IOP, change in visual acuity, need for further IOP-lowering surgery, and complications after bleb revision. RESULTS: Subjects' mean age was 67+/-14 years, 54% were female, and mean follow-up was 2.8+/-2.7 years, with a mean interval from trabeculectomy to revision of 3.5+/-3.7 years. Overall success rate was 63% (112/177), which was slightly higher for leak repair (65%; 64/98) and hypotony (63%; 32/51) than for dysesthesia (57%; 16/28) indications. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, overall cumulative success rates at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after bleb revision were 80%, 75%, 50%, and 41%, respectively. IOP and visual acuity improved significantly in both hypotony and leak groups (P values ranging from 0.004 to <0.0001). Additional IOP-lowering surgery was required in 9%. In multivariate regression analysis adjusting for age, gender, and number of prior surgeries, patients with glaucoma other than primary open-angle glaucoma were twice as likely to have failed bleb revision. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical bleb revision often provides successful resolution of bleb-related complications. Most patients maintain IOP control without need for further IOP-lowering surgery. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Nurturing attachments in looked after children: a feasibility study of a group-based programme for carers

Introduction: The attachment related difficulties of Looked after Children are well recognised in literature with difficulties linked to early experiences hypothesised to be perpetuated by experiences of the care system itself. Recent policy guidelines have emphasised the importance of relationships for children in care, one of the most important being with their primary carer. Golding (2014) published a group format training resource entitled ‘Nurturing Attachments’ which aims to promote ‘therapeutic parenting’; however there is limited knowledge on the feasibility of this intensive approach.
Aims: To assess the feasibility of Nurturing Attachments through exploring (i.) recruitment, retention and attrition, (ii.) initial outcomes, (iii.) acceptability and (iv.) ability of the programme to be delivered in line with the manual content and structure.
Method Two Health and Social Care Trusts in NI participated in the study by facilitating a Nurturing Attachments group in each site with adoptive parents, foster carers and kinship carers (N = 26). Carers completed pre and post measures to explore initial outcome, completing an evaluation questionnaire to explore acceptability. Acceptability was also explored with Trust stakeholders and group facilitators through focus group and interview. To explore if the manual can be delivered as intended, each group completed debrief tools.
Results: The overall response rate for uptake was 13.9%, which impacted on engagement for a ‘treatment as usual’ group. Once engaged in the programme, attrition was low and attendance was high. Initial outcomes have shown positive effects for both young person and carers. Feedback suggests a positive response regarding acceptability with limited expressed concern. The manual can be delivered in a standardised way; however can be flexible enough to allow for group processes.
Conclusions: Further research is needed to continue to explore efficacy, however the current study has provided supporting evidence that Nurturing Attachments as an intervention has positively impacted on many levels of the LAAC system.

Propriedades intrínsecas e de processamento de termoplásticos elastoméricos incorporando borracha de pneu reciclada

O trabalho apresentado tem por objetivo contribuir para a valorização da borracha proveniente de pneus em fim de vida, assente em princípios de sustentabilidade ambiental. A abordagem adotada para a concretização deste objetivo consiste na incorporação de borracha de pneus em formulações de base termoplástica e elastomérica (TPE), adequadas ao processo de moldação por injeção. São desenvolvidos estudos sobre a morfologia, propriedades mecânicas, térmicas e reológicas das ligas poliméricas à base de granulado de borracha de pneu (GTR). A falta de adesão entre o GTR e a matriz polimérica leva à degradação das propriedades mecânicas dos materiais obtidos. A estratégia explorada passa pela utilização de um elastómero para promover o encapsulamento do GTR e, desta forma, procurar obter ligas com propriedades mecânicas características de um TPE. São analisadas ligas ternárias (TPEGTR) compostas por polipropileno (PP) de elevada fluidez, GTR e elastómero virgem. O efeito da presença de diferentes elastómeros nas ligas é analisado neste trabalho: um elastómero de etilenopropileno- dieno (EPDM), e um novo elastómero de etileno-propileno (EPR) obtido por catálise metalocénica. O estudo da morfologia das ligas obtidas mostra haver interação entre os materiais, sendo possível inferir a viabilidade da estratégia adotada para promover a adesão do GTR. A incorporação de elastómero promove o aumento da resistência ao impacto e da extensão na rotura nas ligas, o que é atribuído, fundamentalmente, ao encapsulamento do GTR e ao aumento da tenacidade da matriz termoplástica. Com o objetivo de avaliar a influência da estrutura cristalina das ligas TPEGTR no seu comportamento mecânico, procede-se à análise do processo de cristalização sob condições isotérmicas e não isotérmicas. Neste estudo, é avaliado o efeito da presença dos materiais que constituem a fase elastomérica na cinética de cristalização. Para cada uma das ligas desenvolvidas, recorre-se ao modelo de Avrami para avaliar o efeito da temperatura no mecanismo de nucleação, na morfologia das estruturas cristalinas e na taxa de cristalização. Recorre-se à reometria capilar para estudar, sob condições estacionárias, o comportamento reológico das ligas TPEGTR. O modelo de Cross-WLF é utilizado para avaliar o comportamento reológico de todos os materiais, obtendo-se resultados similares àqueles obtidos experimentalmente. O comportamento reológico dos polímeros PP, EPR e EPDM é do tipo reofluidificante, tendo o EPR um comportamento reológico similar ao do PP e o EPDM um comportamento reo-fluidificante mais pronunciado. Em todas as ligas analisadas o comportamento reológico revela-se do tipo reo-fluidificante, sendo que a presença de GTR promove o aumento da viscosidade. Os parâmetros obtidos do modelo de Cross-WLF são utilizados para realizar a simulação da etapa de injeção recorrendo a um software comercial. Os resultados obtidos são validados experimentalmente pelo processo de moldação por injeção, evidenciando uma boa adequabilidade da aplicação deste modelo a estas ligas. O trabalho desenvolvido sobre ligas TPEGTR, constitui um contributo para a valorização da borracha proveniente de pneus em fim de vida, assente em princípios de sustentabilidade ambiental.

Development of an FIA system with amperometric detection for determination of bentazone in estuarine waters

On the basis of its electrochemical behaviour a new flow-injection analysis (FIA) method with amperometric detection has been developed for quantification of the herbicide bentazone (BTZ) in estuarine waters. Standard solutions and samples (200 µL) were injected into a water carrier stream and both pH and ionic strength were automatically adjusted inside the manifold. Optimization of critical FIA conditions indicated that the best analytical results were obtained at an oxidation potential of 1.10 V, pH 4.5, and an overall flow-rate of 2.4 mL min–1. Analysis of real samples was performed by means of calibration curves over the concentration range 2.5x10–6 to 5.0x10–5 mol L–1, and results were compared with those obtained by use of an independent method (HPLC). The accuracy of the amperometric determinations was ascertained; errors relative to the comparison method were below 4% and sampling rates were approximately 100 samples h–1. The repeatability of the proposed method was calculated by assessing the relative standard deviation (%) of ten consecutive determinations of one sample; the value obtained was 2.1%.

Bioproduction of succinic acid from renewable feedstocks by Actinobacillus succinogenes 130Z

Succinic acid (SA) is a highly versatile building block that is used in a wide range of industrial applications. The biological production of succinic acid has emerged in the last years as an efficient alternative to the chemical production based on fossil fuels. However, in order to fully replace the competing petro-based chemical process from which it has been produced so far, some challenges remain to be surpassed. In particular, one main obstacle would be to reduce its production costs, mostly associated to the use of refined sugars. The present work is focused on the development of a sustainable and cost-e↵ective microbial production process based on cheap and renewable resources, such as agroindustrial wastes. Hence, glycerol and carob pods were identified as promising feedstocks and used as inexpensive carbon sources for the bioproduction of succinic acid by Actinobacillus succinogenes 130Z, one of the best naturally producing strains. Even though glycerol is a highly available carbon source, as by-product of biodiesel production, its consumption by A. succinogenes is impaired due to a redox imbalance during cell growth. However, the use of an external electron acceptor such as dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) may improve glycerol metabolism and succinic acid production by this strain. As such, DMSO was tested as a co-substrate for glycerol consumption and concentrations of DMSO between 1 and 4% (v/v) greatly promoted glycerol consumption and SA production by this biocatalyst. Aiming at obtaining higher succinic acid yield and production rate, batch and fed-batch experiments were performed under controlled cultivation conditions. Batch experiments resulted in a succinic acid yield on glycerol of 0.95 g SA/g GLY and a production rate of 2.13 g/L.h, with residual production of acetic and formic acids. In fed-batch experiment, the SA production rate reached 2.31 g/L.h, the highest value reported in the literature for A. succinogenes using glycerol as carbon source. DMSO dramatically improved the conversion of glycerol by A. succinogenes and may be used as a co-substrate, opening new perspectives for the use of glycerol by this biocatalyst. Carob pods, highly available in Portugal as a residue from the locust bean gum industry, contain a significant amount of fermentable sugars such as sucrose, glucose and fructose and were also used as substrate for succinic acid production. Sugar extraction from raw and roasted carobs was optimized varying solid/water ratio and extraction time, maximizing sugar recovery while minimizing the extraction of polyphenols. Kinetic studies of glucose, fructose and sucrose consumption by A. succinogenes as individual carbon sources till 30 g/L were first determined to assess possible metabolic diferences. Results showed no significant diferences related to sugar consumption and SA production between the diferent sugars. Carob pods water extracts were then used as carbon source during controlled batch cultivations. (...)

Comportamentos das famílias portuguesas em épocas de calor e durante a onda de calor de Agosto de 2003

RESUMO - Este estudo teve como principal objectivo a caracterização das atitudes e da adopção de medidas de protecção em períodos de calor e em particular conhecer aquelas que efectivamente foram adoptadas durante a onda de calor de Agosto de 2003 (29 de Julho a 15 de Agosto). Foi realizado um inquérito por via postal, aplicando um questionário aos indivíduos de 18 e mais anos das unidades de alojamento (UA), que constituem a amostra ECOS (Em Casa Observamos Saúde) do Observatório Nacional de Saúde. Estudaram-se 769 indivíduos, o que correspondeu a 25,6% da totalidade dos indivíduos elegíveis nas UA. Uma vez que a amostra ECOS não é autoponderada, foram ponderados os resultados das unidades de alojamento pela variável do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) «número de famílias clássicas» por região e pela «população residente segundo o nível de instrução» obtidas pelos censos de 2001. Os comportamentos referidos como adoptados em épocas de calor que apresentaram maiores percentagens foram «tomar duches ou banhos» (84,6%), «ingestão de líquidos» (79,6%), «uso de roupa leve, larga e clara» (73,2%) e «tomar refeições leves» (53,7%). Durante a onda de calor de 2003, a maior parte da população (92,5%) leu, ouviu ou viu informação sobre os cuidados a ter durante a onda de calor, tendo sido a televisão (95,2%), a rádio (56,3%) e os jornais (49,3%) os meios de comunicação social mais referidos. Cerca de metade da população (51,4%) informou alguém, fundamentalmente a família, sobre os cuidados a ter. Com efeito, durante esta onda de calor verificou-se um maior cuidado em relação a comportamentos mais prejudiciais em épocas de maior calor. Por um lado, a população portuguesa andou menos ao sol (49,4%), fez menos viagens de carro/transportes à hora do calor (39,8%), realizou menos actividades que exigiriam esforço físico (32,5%) e também houve alguma preocupação em beber menos bebidas alcoólicas (26,5%). Por outro lado, aumentaram os comportamentos que já são mais habituais durante o período de Verão, tais como abrir as janelas durante a noite (40,8%), tomar refeições leves (46,7%), tomar mais duches ou banhos (58,5%), o uso de roupas leves largas e claras (42,5%) e o uso de ventoinhas (37,8%). A alteração do comportamento andar ou estar ao sol sem restrições aumenta com o número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação. Abrir as janelas de casa durante a noite e tomar duches ou banhos apresentou uma associação com o número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação e com o número de pessoas que prestaram informação. Ingerir líquidos e usar roupa leve, larga e clara mostrou também uma dependência do número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação.

Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.