965 resultados para nested multinomial logit
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The Northeast region is the location of most cases of acute hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Brazil. In the present study, the genotypes of HAV strains from Pernambuco State, one of most populous states in the Northeast region, were characterized. Blood samples positive for anti-HAV IgM from 145 individuals (mean age = 29.1 years), collected during 2002 and 2003, were submitted to nested RT-PCR for amplification of the 5'non-translated region (5'NTR) and VP1/2A regions of the HAV genome. The VP1/2A and 5'NTR regions were amplified in 39 and 21% of the samples, respectively. Nucleotide sequencing was carried out in 46% of VP1/2A and in 53% of 5'NTR isolates. The identity in nucleotide sequence of the VP1/2A region ranged from 93.6 to 100.0%. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP1/2A sequences showed that 65% belong to sub-genotype IA and 35% to sub-genotype IB. Co-circulation of both sub-genotypes was observed in the two years studied. Distinct clusters of highly related sequences were observed in both sub-genotypes, suggesting endemic circulation of HAV strains in this area. In the 5'NTR isolates, 92.7-99.2% identity was observed and two isolates presented one deletion at position 413. Phylogenetic analysis showed that genotype IA strains cluster in the tree in the same way as genotype IB strains, but one IIIA isolate from Spain clusters with genotype IB strains. These results do not allow us to state that 5'NTR could be used to genotype HAV sequences. This is the first report of co-circulation of sub-genotypes IA and IB in this region, providing additional information about the molecular epidemiology of HAV strains in Brazil.
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Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a severe mental disorder associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Prenatal insults have been shown to be associated with later development of mental disorders and there is a growing interest in the potential role of prenatal and perinatal risk factors in the development of BPD. The aims of this thesis were to describe the overall study design of the Finnish Prenatal Study of Bipolar Disorders (FIPS-B) and demographic characteristics of the sample. Furthermore, it was aimed to examine the association of parental age, parental age difference, perinatal complications and maternal smoking during pregnancy with BPD. This thesis is based on FIPS-B, a nested case-control study using several nationwide registers. The cases included all people born in Finland between January 1st 1983 and December 31st 1998 and diagnosed with BPD according to the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (FHDR) before December 31st 2008. Controls for this study were people who were without BPD, schizophrenia or diagnoses related to these disorders, identified from the Population Register Centre (PRC), and matched two-fold to the cases on sex, date of birth (+/- 30 days), and residence in Finland on the first day of diagnosis of the matched case. Conditional logistic regression models were used to examine the association between risk factors and BPD. This study included 1887 BPD cases and 3774 matched controls. The mean age at diagnosis was 19.3 years and females accounted for 68% of the cases. Mothers with the lowest educational level had the highest odds of having BPD in offspring. Being born in Eastern and Southern region of Finland increased the odds of having BPD later in life. A U-shaped distribution of odds ratio was observed between paternal age and BPD in the unadjusted analysis. Maternal age and parental age difference was not associated with BPD. Birth by planned caesarean section was associated with increased odd of BPD. Smoking during pregnancy was not associated with BPD in the adjusted analyses. Region of birth and maternal educational level were associated with BPD. Both young and old father’s age was associated with BPD. Most perinatal complications and maternal smoking during pregnancy were not associated with BPD. The findings of this thesis, considered together with previous literature, suggest that the pre- and perinatal risk factor profile varies among different psychiatric disorders.
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Bone marrow is a heterogeneous cell population which includes hematopoietic and mesenchymal progenitor cells. Dysregulated hematopoiesis occurs in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), being caused at least in part by abnormalities in the hematopoietic progenitors. However, the role of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in CML has not been well characterized. The objectives of the present study were to observe the biological characteristics of MSCs from CML patients and to determine if MSCs originate in part from donors in CML patients after bone marrow transplantation (BMT). We analyzed MSCs from 5 untreated patients and from 3 CML patients after sex-mismatched allogeneic BMT. Flow cytometry analysis revealed the typical MSC phenotype and in vitro assays showed ability to differentiate into adipocytes and osteoblasts. Moreover, although some RT-PCR data were contradictory, combined fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis showed that MSCs from CML patients do not express the bcr-abl gene. Regarding MSCs of donor origin, although it is possible to detect Y target sequence by nested PCR, the low frequency (0.14 and 0.34%) of XY cells in 2 MSC CML patients by fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis suggests the presence of contaminant hematopoietic cells and the absence of host-derived MSCs in CML patients. Therefore, we conclude that MSCs from CML patients express the typical MSC phenotype, can differentiate into osteogenic and adipogenic lineages and do not express the bcr-abl gene. MSCs cannot be found in recipients 12 to 20 months after BMT. The influence of MSCs on the dysregulation of hematopoiesis in CML patients deserves further investigation.
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The present study examined the distribution of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and subtypes in a hemodialysis population in Goiás State, Central Brazil, and evaluated the efficiency of two genotyping methods: line probe assay (LiPA) based on the 5' noncoding region and nucleotide sequencing of the nonstructural 5B (NS5B) region of the genome. A total of 1095 sera were tested for HCV RNA by RT-nested PCR of the 5' noncoding region. The LiPA assay was able to genotype all 131 HCV RNA-positive samples. Genotypes 1 (92.4%) and 3 (7.6%) were found. Subtype 1a (65.7%) was the most prevalent, followed by subtypes 1b (26.7%) and 3a (7.6%). Direct nucleotide sequencing of 340 bp from the NS5B region was performed in 106 samples. The phylogenetic tree showed that 98 sequences (92.4%) were classified as genotype 1, subtypes 1a (72.6%) and 1b (19.8%), and 8 sequences (7.6%) as subtype 3a. The two genotyping methods gave concordant results within HCV genotypes and subtypes in 100 and 96.2% of cases, respectively. Only four samples presented discrepant results, with LiPA not distinguishing subtypes 1a and 1b. Therefore, HCV genotype 1 (subtype 1a) is predominant in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil. By using sequence analysis of the NS5B region as a reference standard method for HCV genotyping, we found that LiPA was efficient at the genotype level, although some discrepant results were observed at the subtype level (sensitivity of 96.1% for subtype 1a and 95.2% for subtype 1b). Thus, analysis of the NS5B region permitted better discrimination between HCV subtypes, as required in epidemiological investigations.
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Guided by the social-ecological conceptualization of bullying, this thesis examines the implications of classroom and school contexts—that is, students’ shared microsystems—for peer-to-peer bullying and antibullying practices. Included are four original publications, three of which are empirical studies utilizing data from a large Finnish sample of students in the upper grade levels of elementary school. Both self- and peer reports of bullying and victimization are utilized, and the hierarchical nature of the data collected from students nested within school ecologies is accounted for by multilevel modeling techniques. The first objective of the thesis is to simultaneously examine risk factors for victimization at individual, classroom, and school levels (Study I). The second objective is to uncover the individual- and classroom-level working mechanisms of the KiVa antibullying program which has been shown to be effective in reducing bullying problems in Finnish schools (Study II). Thirdly, an overview of the extant literature on classroom- and school-level contributions to bullying and victimization is provided (Study III). Finally, attention is paid to the assessment of victimization and, more specifically, to how the classroom context influences the concordance between self- and peer reports of victimization (Study IV). Findings demonstrate the multiple ways in which contextual factors, and importantly students’ perceptions thereof, contribute to the bullying dynamic and efforts to counteract it. Whereas certain popular beliefs regarding the implications of classroom and school contexts do not receive support, the role of peer contextual factors and the significance of students’ perceptions of teachers’ attitudes toward bullying are highlighted. Directions for future research and school-based antibullying practices are suggested.
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Our objective was to clone, express and characterize adult Dermatophagoides farinae group 1 (Der f 1) allergens to further produce recombinant allergens for future clinical applications in order to eliminate side reactions from crude extracts of mites. Based on GenBank data, we designed primers and amplified the cDNA fragment coding for Der f 1 by nested-PCR. After purification and recovery, the cDNA fragment was cloned into the pMD19-T vector. The fragment was then sequenced, subcloned into the plasmid pET28a(+), expressed in Escherichia coli BL21 and identified by Western blotting. The cDNA coding for Der f 1 was cloned, sequenced and expressed successfully. Sequence analysis showed the presence of an open reading frame containing 966 bp that encodes a protein of 321 amino acids. Interestingly, homology analysis showed that the Der p 1 shared more than 87% identity in amino acid sequence with Eur m 1 but only 80% with Der f 1. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses suggested that D. pteronyssinus was evolutionarily closer to Euroglyphus maynei than to D. farinae, even though D. pteronyssinus and D. farinae belong to the same Dermatophagoides genus. A total of three cysteine peptidase active sites were found in the predicted amino acid sequence, including 127-138 (QGGCGSCWAFSG), 267-277 (NYHAVNIVGYG) and 284-303 (YWIVRNSWDTTWGDSGYGYF). Moreover, secondary structure analysis revealed that Der f 1 contained an a helix (33.96%), an extended strand (17.13%), a ß turn (5.61%), and a random coil (43.30%). A simple three-dimensional model of this protein was constructed using a Swiss-model server. The cDNA coding for Der f 1 was cloned, sequenced and expressed successfully. Alignment and phylogenetic analysis suggests that D. pteronyssinus is evolutionarily more similar to E. maynei than to D. farinae.
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Group B rotaviruses (RV-B) were first identified in piglet feces, being later associated with diarrhea in humans, cattle, lambs, and rats. In human beings, the virus was only described in China, India, and Bangladesh, especially infecting adults. Only a few studies concerning molecular analysis of the RV-B NSP2 gene have been conducted, and porcine RV-B has not been characterized. In the present study, three porcine wild-type RV-B strains from piglet stool samples collected from Brazilian pig herds were used for analysis. PAGE results were inconclusive for those samples, but specific amplicons of the RV-B NSP2 gene (segment 8) were obtained in a semi-nested PCR assay. The three porcine RV-B strains showed the highest nucleotide identity with the human WH1 strain and the alignments with other published sequences resulted in three groups of strains divided according to host species. The group of human strains showed 92.4 to 99.7% nucleotide identity while the porcine strains of the Brazilian RV-B group showed 90.4 to 91.8% identity to each other. The identity of the Brazilian porcine RV-B strains with outer sequences consisting of group A and C rotaviruses was only 35.3 to 38.8%. A dendrogram was also constructed to group the strains into clusters according to host species: human, rat, and a distinct third cluster consisting exclusively of the Brazilian porcine RV-B strains. This is the first study of the porcine RV-B NSP2 gene that contributes to the partial characterization of this virus and demonstrates the relationship among RV-B strains from different host species.
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Few studies have reported the molecular epidemiological characterization of HIV-1 in the Northern region of Brazil. The present study reports the molecular and epidemiological characterization of 31 HIV-1 isolates from blood donors from the State of Amazonas who donated blood between April 2006 and March 2007. Serum/plasma samples from all donors were screened for HIV antibodies by ELISA and the results confirmed by Western blot analysis. Genomic DNA was extracted from the buffy coat using the Super Quik-Gene-DNA Isolation kit. Nested PCR was performed on the env, gag, and pol regions of HIV-1 using the Gene Amp PCR System 9700. Sequencing reactions were performed using the inner PCR primers and the DYEnamic™ ET Dye Terminator Kit, and phylogenetic analysis was performed using the gag, pol, and env gene sequences. We collected samples from 31 blood donors who tested positive for HIV-1 in confirmatory experiments. The male:female ratio of blood donors was 3.4:1, and the mean age was 32.4 years (range: 19 to 61 years). Phylogenetic analysis showed that subtype B is the most prevalent among Northern Brazilian HIV-1-seropositive blood donors. One HIV-1 subtype C and one circulating recombinant form (CRF_BF) of HIV-1 were identified in the State of Amazonas. This is the first study showing the occurrence of a possible "homogenous" subtype C in this region of Brazil. This finding could contribute to a better characterization of the HIV-1 strains that circulate in the country.
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We investigated the association between pulse wave velocity (PWV) and HIV infection, antiretroviral treatment-related characteristics, viral load, immune status, and metabolic changes in a cross-sectional study nested in a cohort of HIV/AIDS patients who have been followed for metabolic and cardiovascular changes since 2007. The study included patients recruited from the cohort (N = 261) and a comparison group (N = 82) of uninfected individuals, all enrolled from April to November 2009. Aortic stiffness was estimated using the carotid-femoral PWV (Complior-Artech, Paris, France). The groups were similar with respect to age, metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, Framingham score, and use of antihypertensive and hypolipidemic medications. Hypertension was more frequent among the controls. Individuals with HIV had higher triglyceride, glucose and HDL cholesterol levels. Among individuals with HIV/AIDS, those with a nadir CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/mm³ had a higher PWV (P = 0.01). There was no statistically significant difference when subjects were stratified by gender. Heart rate, age, male gender, and blood pressure were independently correlated with PWV. Nadir CD4+ T-cell count did not remain in the final model. There was no significance difference in PWV between HIV-infected individuals and uninfected controls. PWV was correlated with age, gender, and blood pressure across the entire population and among those infected with HIV. We recommend cohort studies to further explore the association between inflammation related to HIV infection and/or immune reconstitution and antiretroviral use and PWV.
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Estimates of occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection prevalence varies among different studies depending on the prevalence of HBV infection in the study population and on the sensitivity of the assay used to detect HBV DNA. We investigated the prevalence of occult HBV infection in cirrhotic patients undergoing liver transplantation in a Brazilian referral center. Frozen liver samples from 68 adults were analyzed using a nested polymerase chain reaction assay for HBV DNA. The specificity of the amplified HBV sequences was confirmed by direct sequencing of the amplicons. The patient population comprised 49 (72.1%) males and 19 (27.9%) females with a median age of 53 years (range=18-67 years). Occult HBV infection was diagnosed in three (4.4%) patients. The etiologies of the underlying chronic liver disease in these cases were alcohol abuse, HBV infection, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. Two of the patients with cryptic HBV infection also presented hepatocellular carcinoma. Markers of previous HBV infection were available in two patients with occult HBV infection and were negative in both. In conclusion, using a sensitive nested polymerase chain reaction assay to detect HBV DNA in frozen liver tissue, we found a low prevalence of occult HBV infection in cirrhotic patients undergoing liver transplant, probably due to the low prevalence of HBV infection in our population.
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Personalized medicine will revolutionize our capabilities to combat disease. Working toward this goal, a fundamental task is the deciphering of geneticvariants that are predictive of complex diseases. Modern studies, in the formof genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have afforded researchers with the opportunity to reveal new genotype-phenotype relationships through the extensive scanning of genetic variants. These studies typically contain over half a million genetic features for thousands of individuals. Examining this with methods other than univariate statistics is a challenging task requiring advanced algorithms that are scalable to the genome-wide level. In the future, next-generation sequencing studies (NGS) will contain an even larger number of common and rare variants. Machine learning-based feature selection algorithms have been shown to have the ability to effectively create predictive models for various genotype-phenotype relationships. This work explores the problem of selecting genetic variant subsets that are the most predictive of complex disease phenotypes through various feature selection methodologies, including filter, wrapper and embedded algorithms. The examined machine learning algorithms were demonstrated to not only be effective at predicting the disease phenotypes, but also doing so efficiently through the use of computational shortcuts. While much of the work was able to be run on high-end desktops, some work was further extended so that it could be implemented on parallel computers helping to assure that they will also scale to the NGS data sets. Further, these studies analyzed the relationships between various feature selection methods and demonstrated the need for careful testing when selecting an algorithm. It was shown that there is no universally optimal algorithm for variant selection in GWAS, but rather methodologies need to be selected based on the desired outcome, such as the number of features to be included in the prediction model. It was also demonstrated that without proper model validation, for example using nested cross-validation, the models can result in overly-optimistic prediction accuracies and decreased generalization ability. It is through the implementation and application of machine learning methods that one can extract predictive genotype–phenotype relationships and biological insights from genetic data sets.
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The cloned dihydrofolate reductase gene of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (DFR 1) is expressed in Escherichia coli. Bacterial strain JF1754 transformed with plasmids containing DFR 1 is at least 5X more resistant to inhibition by the folate antagonist trimethoprim. Expression of yeast DFR 1 in E. coli suggests it is likely that the gene lacks intervening sequences. The 1.8 kbp DNA fragment encoding yeast dhfr activity probably has its own promotor, as the gene is expressed in both orientations in E. coli. Expression of the yeast dhfr gene cloned into M13 viral vectors allowed positive selection of DFR 1 - M13 bacterial transfectants in medium supplemented with trimethoprim. A series of nested deletions generated by nuclease Bal 31 digestion and by restriction endonuclease cleavage of plasmids containing DFR 1 physically mapped the gene to a 930 bp region between the Pst 1 and Sal 1 cut sites. This is consistent with the 21,000 molecular weight attributed to yeast dhfr in previous reports. From preliminary DNA sequence analysis of the dhfr DNA fragment the 3' terminus of DFR 1 was assigned to a position 27 nucleotides from the Eco Rl cut site on the Bam Hi - Eco Rl DNA segment. Several putative yeast transcription termination consensus sequences were identified 3' to the opal stop codon. DFR 1 is expressed in yeast and it confers resistance to the antifolate methotrexate when the gene is present in 2 - 10 copies per cell. Plasmid-dependent resistance to methotrexate is also observed in a rad 6 background although the effect is somewhat less than that conferred to wild-type or rad 18 cells. Integration of DFR 1 into the yeast genome showed an intermediate sensitivity to folate antagonists. This may suggest a gene dosage effect. No change in petite induction in these yeast strains was observed in transformed cells containing yeast dhfr plasmids. The sensitivity of rad 6 , rad 18 and wild-type cell populations to trimethoprim were unaffected by the presence of DFR 1 in transformants. Moreover, trimethoprim did not induce petites in any strain tested, which normally results if dhfr is inhibited by other antifolates such as methotrexate. This may suggest that the dhfr enzyme is not the only possible target of trimethoprim in yeast. rad 6 mutants showed a very low level of spontaneous petite formation. Methotrexate failed to induce respiratory deficient mutants in this strain which suggested that rad 6 might be an obligate grande. However, ethidium bromide induced petites to a level approximately 50% of that exhibited by wild-type and rad 18 strains.
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Objective. Despite steady declines in the prevalence of tobacco use among Canadians, young adult tobacco use has remained stubbornly high over the past two decades (CTUMS, 2005a). Currently in Ontario, young adults have the highest proportion of smokers of all age cohorts at 26%. A growing body of evidence shows that smoking restrictions and other tobacco control policies can reduce tobacco use and consumption among adults and deter initiation among youth; whether young adult university students' smoking participation is influenced by community smoking restrictions, campus tobacco control policies or both remains an empirical question. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship among current smoking status of students on university campuses across Ontario and various tobacco control policies, 3including clean air bylaws of students' home towns, clean air by-laws of the community where the university is situated, and campus policies. Methods. Two data sets were used. The 200512006 Tobacco Use in a Representative Sample of Post-Secondary Students data set provides information about the tobacco use of 10,600 students from 23 universities and colleges across Ontario. Data screening for this study reduced the sample to 5,114 17-to-24 year old undergraduate students from nine universities. The second data set is researcher-generated and includes information about strength and duration of, and students' exposure to home town, local and campus tobacco control policies. Municipal by-laws (of students' home towns and university towns) were categorized as weak, moderate or strong based on criteria set out in the Ontario Municipal By-law Report; campus policies were categorized in a roughly parallel fashion. Durations of municipal and campus policies were calculated; and length of students' exposure to the policies was estimated (all in months). Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between students' current smoking status (daily, less-than-daily, never-smokers) and the following policy measures: strength of, duration of, and students' exposure to campus policy; strength of, duration of, and students' exposure to the by-law in the university town; and, strength of, duration of, and students' exposure to the by-law in the home town they grew up in. Sociodemographic variables were controlled for. Results. Among the Ontario university students surveyed, 7.0% currently use tobacco daily and 15.4% use tobacco less-than-daily. The proportions of students experiencing strong tobacco control policies in their home town, the community in which their university is located and at their current university were 33.9%,64.1 %, and 31.3% respectively. However, 13.7% of students attended a university that had a weak campus policy. Multinomial logistic regressions suggested current smoking status was associated with university town by-law strength, home town by-law strength and the strength of the campus tobacco control policy. In the fmal model, after controlling for sociodemographic factors, a strong by-law in the university town and a strong by-law in students' home town were associated with reduced odds of being both a less-than-daily (OR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.48-0.86; OR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.66-0.95) and daily smoker (OR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.39-0.89; OR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.58-0.99), while a weak campus tobacco control policy was associated with higher odds of being a daily smoker (OR = 2.08, 95%CI: 1.31-3.30) (but unrelated to less-than-daily smoking). Longer exposure to the municipal by-law (OR = 0.93; 95%CI: 0.90-0.96) was also related to smoking status. Conclusions. Students' smoking prevalence was associated with the strength of the restrictions in university, and with campus-specific tobacco control policies. Lessthan- daily smoking was not as strongly associated with policy measures as daily smoking was. University campuses may wish to adopt more progressive campus policies and support clean air restrictions in the broader community. More research is needed to determine the direction of influence between tobacco control policies and students' smoking.
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One of the most common bee genera in the Niagara Region, the genus Ceratina (Hymenoptera: Apidae) is composed of four species, C. dupla, C. calcarata, the very rare C. strenua, and a previously unknown species provisionally named C. near dupla. The primary goal of this thesis was to investigate how these closely related species coexist with one another in the Niagara ~ee community. The first necessary step was to describe and compare the nesting biologies and life histories of the three most common species, C. dupla, C. calcarata and the new C. near dupla, which was conducted in 2008 via nest collections and pan trapping. Ceratina dupla and C. calcarata were common, each comprising 49% of the population, while C. near dupla was rare, comprising only 2% of the population. Ceratina dupla and C. near dupla both nested more commonly in teasel (Dipsacus sp.) in the sun, occasionally in raspberry (Rubus sp.) in the shade, and never in shady sumac (Rhus sp.), while C. calcarata nested most commonly in raspberry and sumac (shaded) and occasionally in teasel (sunny). Ceratina near dupla differed from both C. dupla and C. calcarata in that it appeared to be partially bivoltine, with some females founding nests very early and then again very late in the season. To examine the interactions and possible competition for nests that may be taking place between C. dupla and C. calcarata, a nest choice experiment was conducted in 2009. This experiment allowed both species to choose among twigs from all three substrates in the sun and in the shade. I then compared the results from 2008 (where bees chose from what was available), to where they nested when given all options (2009 experiment). Both C. dupla and C. calcarata had the same preferences for microhabitat and nest substrate in 2009, that being raspberry and sumac twigs in the sun. As that microhabitat and nest substrate combination is extremely rare in nature, both species must make a choice. In nature Ceratina dupla nests more often in the preferred microhabitat (sun), while C. calcarata nests in the preferred substrate (raspberry). Nesting in the shade also leads to smaller clutch sizes, higher parasitism and lower numbers of live brood in C. calcarata, suggesting that C. dupla may be outcompeting C. calcarata for the sunny nesting sites. The development and host preferences of Ceratina parasitoids were also examined. Ceratina species in Niagara were parasitized by no less than eight species of arthropod. Six of these were wasps from the superfamily Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera), one was a wasp from the family Ichneumonidae (Hymenoptera) and one was a physogastric mite from the family Pyemotidae (Acari). Parasites shared a wide range of developmental strategies, from ichneumonid larvae that needed to consume multiple Ceratina immatures to complete development, to the species from the Eulophidae (Baryscapus) and Encyrtidae (Coelopencyrtus), in which multiple individuals completed development inside a single Ceratina host. Biological data on parasitoids is scarce in the scientific literature, and this Chapter documents these interactions for future research.
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The aim of this study was to describe the nonlinear association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer outcomes and to determine whether BMI improves prediction of outcomes. A cohort of906 breast cancer patients diagnosed at Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (1985-1990) were studied. The median follow-up was 10 years. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model breast cancer recurrence/progression and breast cancer-specific death. Restricted cubic splines were used to model nonlinear effects. Receiver operator characteristic areas under the curves (ROC AUC) were used to evaluate prediction. BMI was nonlinearly associated with recurrence/progression and death (p= 0.0230 and 0.0101). Probability of outcomes increased with increase or decrease ofBMI away from 25. BMI splines were suggestive of improved prediction of death. The ROC AUCs for nested models with and without BMI were 0.8424 and 0.8331 (p= 0.08). I f causally associated, modifying patients BMI towards 25 may improve outcomes.