Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Property studies of optical waveguide formed by 6.0 MeV carbon ion implantation into Nd : silicate glass

Nd:silicate glass was implanted at room temperature by 6.0 MeV C3+ ions with a dose of 2.0 x 10(15) ions cm(-2). A waveguide with thickness of about 6.3 mu m was formed. The prism-coupling method was used to observe the dark modes of the waveguide at 633 nm and 1539 nm, respectively. There are three dark modes at 633 nm, of which one is the enhanced-index mode. The propagation loss of the enhanced-index mode in the waveguide measured at 633 nm is 0.42 dB cm(-1) after annealing at 217 degrees C for 35 min. The reflectivity calculation method was applied to simulate the refractive index profiles in the waveguide. The mode optical near-field output at 633 nm was presented.

Epitaxial growth of ZnO films on (100) and (001) gamma-LiAlO2 substrates by pulsed laser deposition

Structural and optical properties were investigated for ZnO films grown on (100) and (001) gamma-LiAlO2 (LAO) substrates by pulsed laser deposition method. According XRD results, it is intuitionistic that (100) LAO is suitable for fabricating high quality ZnO film, while (001) LAO is unsuitable. The FWHM of XRD, stress in film and FWHM of UV PL spectra for ZnO films on (100) LAO show a decreasing with increasing substrate temperature from 300 to 600 degrees C. ZnO film fabricated at 600 degrees C has the greatest grain size, the smallest stress (0.47 Gpa) and PL FWHM value (similar to 85 meV). This means that the substrate temperature of 600 degrees C is optimum for ZnO film deposited on (100) LAO. Moreover, it was found that the UV PL spectra intensity of ZnO film is not only related to the grain size and stoichiometric, but also depends on the stress in the film.

Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Caracterização de filmes formados por dispersões aquosas de poli(uretano-uréia)s para aplicação em membranas para permeação de gases

Entre os polímeros considerados promissores para a remoção seletiva de CO2, destacam-se aqueles que contêm os grupos glicol etilênico (EG). Nesta dissertação, foram obtidos filmes a partir de dispersões aquosas de poliuretano (PU), sintetizadas em trabalho anterior, à base de poli(glicol propilênico) (PPG), copolímero em bloco à base de poli(glicol etilênico) (PEG) e PPG (EG-b-PG), ácido dimetilolpropiônico (DMPA), diisocianato de isoforona (IPDI) e etilenodiamina (EDA). PPG, EG-b-PG e DMPA formaram as regiões flexíveis nas proporções de: PPG 100% e 0% EG-b-PG, PPG 75% e 25% EG-b-PG, PPG 50% e 50% EG-b-PG e PPG 25% e 75% EG-b-PG em termos de equivalentes-gramas. A influência da quantidade dos segmentos de PEG foi avaliada por ensaios de permeação com os gases CO2, CH4 e N2. Os filmes obtidos das dispersões foram caracterizados por espectrometria de infravermelho com transformadas de Fourier (FTIR), análise termogravimétrica (TGA), difração de raios x (DRX) e espalhamento de raios X a baixo ângulo (SAXS). Espectros de FTIR mostraram que os segmentos de EG influenciaram a frequência da banda de carbonila. Curvas de perda de massa (TG) mostraram perfis semelhantes de degradação, enquanto que as curvas derivadas apresentaram diferenças. DRX e SAXS mostraram que os segmentos de PEG promoveram uma maior ordenação na estrutura da membrana. Testes de permeação de gases mostraram que o aumento do teor de PEG aumentou o valor da permeabilidade para o CO2, indicando que os segmentos de PEG interagiram favoravelmente com este gás. Em relação ao CH4 e N2, houve uma diminuição na permeabilidade quando comparados com os valores encontrados para o CO2, sendo atribuído a perda de mobilidade segmental. Em termos de seletividade, para o par CO2/CH4 foi obtido um valor médio de 61,7 para a membrana contendo o maior teor de PEG, e o par CO2/N2 um valor médio de 121,5, sendo superior aos valores encontrados na literatura, tornando o material promissor

Smoked marine fish from Western Region, Ghana: a value chain assessment

The value chain analysis of ths report focused on smoked marine fish- overwhelmingly the most important fish product originating in Western Region, Ghana. Smoked fish from Western Region is mainly destined for the domestic market where demand is very strong. Small quantities of smoked fish are destined for markets in Togo, Benin and Nigeria. The underlying objective of the fisheries value chain analysis is to identify opportunities for growth in the fisheries value chain, with an emphasis on those opportunities that have the potential to generate significant additional livelihoods, particularly at the level of the fishing communities and for low-income groups. The results from the value chain analysis will be used to identify pilot interventions to promote those livelihood outcomes. The main focus for the study is smoked fish (major species/product forms) destined for domestic markets. However, work will also be undertaken on the fresh fish trade and frozen fish to find out more about the significance of these value chains.

Financial Value Added FVA: uma nova ferramenta para a medição do desempenho financeiro das empresas

O objetivo dessa pesquisa é apresentar uma ferramenta alternativa ao valor econômico adicionado na mensuração da performance empresarial correlacionada com o valor de mercado. Na revisão da literatura apresenta-se o conceito de estrutura e custo de capital, utilizando a metodologia do CAPM e do APT. São igualmente apresentadas as principais medidas financeiras de desempenho tais como: retorno operacional sobre o investimento, retorno sobre o patrimônio liquido, retorno sobre os ativos, além de outras formas para cálculo do retorno. Na sequência introduzimos o conceito de lucro residual e o valor econômico adicionado, discutindo suas vantagens, desvantagens, dificuldades e limitações dessa ferramenta. Através do EVA podemos calcular o valor de mercado adicionado, fundamental para o cálculo do valor patrimonial ajustado. Também é apresentado nessa obra a interpretação do EVA pela ótica do modelo Fleuriet de planejamento financeiro. Após essa explanação teórica é apresentado o Financial Value Added proposto por esse trabalho, como alternativa ao Valor Econômico Adicionado na mensuração do desempenho empresarial. Essa ferramenta exclui da base de cálculo as receitas e despesas econômicas, uma vez que as mesmas em alguns casos distorcem o resultado como é constatado no teste com as empresas: Sadia S.A. e Perdigão S.A. onde os resultados foram 54% na Sadia e 13% na Perdigão superiores ao EVA. Em nenhum momento argumenta-se a substituição do EVA, apenas a introdução do FVA como alternativa nos casos em que o EVA não funcione adequadamente.

"Erran nahi baita" birformulatzaile esplikatiboa gaurko euskaran

[EN] This article presents a detailed study of the present-day use of the Basque discourse marker "erran/esan nahi baita" (‘that is to say’). This is an explanatory reformulator by means of which the speaker presents a reformulation of something said in the previous utterance (either a clause that forms part of the current sentence, or the preceding sentence) in order to express it more clearly or explain it. In the article I will examine the marker’s values; literary tradition; form and origin; present-day variants; equivalent expressions; position; punctuation; syntax; frequency, medium (written or spoken), register and text type; equivalents in other languages; and discourse value.

Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda

This study examines the vulnerability of fish pr oduction in Uganda, particularly as it r elates to the predicted impacts from climate change, using the concept of the value chain. The value chain approach has been recommended as a useful tool to study specific challenges facing a sector resulting from various drivers of change, including climate. Critically, such analyses can reveal context-specific response strategies to enhance a sector (Jacinto and Pomer oy 2010). The specific purpose of the study was to identify curr ent and potential impacts of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies in fish value chains. The study builds upon information fr om earlier value chain analyses on fisheries and aquaculture production in Uganda to provide a more in-depth understanding of issues facing the fish industry, in particular, those to be incorporated in the CGIAR Resear ch Program Livestock and Fish.

The structure and margins of the Lake Chilwa fisheries in Malawi: a value chain analysis

Small freshwater pelagic fisheries in closed lakes are very important to millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa providing livelihoods and nutritional security. However, returns from these fisheries have been shown to �uctuate in response to climatic variability. In order to understand the impact of these fluctuations on the livelihoods of people dependant on these fisheries, there is a need for information on how the fish value chain is organized and how it functions in response to variation in supplies. The results will feed into strategies that build resilience in fishing households against the uncertainties arising from unstable ecosystems. The Lake Chilwa fishery value chain is composed of fishers, processors, traders, fish transporters, boat owners, owners of fish processing shades, fisheries associations, gear owners, gear makers, firewood sellers, and traders of fishing gear and equipment. The value chain employs many people and local authorities can consider using this information in the design of rural development strategies for employment generation in small-scale fishing communities. The findings from this study have a number of implications for the improvement of the livelihood of fishers and enhancing their capacity to mitigate against the effects of climate change.