Systems Modeling of Lung Cancer Screening Programs to Improve Quality

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Multi-physics modeling of aluminium reduction cells

Aluminium cells involve a range of complex physical processes which act simultaneously to provide a narrow satisfactory operating range. These processes involve electromagnetic fields, coupled with heat transfer and phase change, two phase fluid flow with a range of complexities plus the development of stress in the cell structure. All of these phenomena are coupled in some significant sense and so to provide a comprehensive model of these processes involves their representation simultaneously. Conventionally, aspects of the process have been modeled separately using uncoupled estimates of the effects of the other phenomena; this has enabled the use of standard commercial CFD and FEA tools. In this paper we will describe an approach to the modeling of aluminium cells which describes all the physics simultaneously. This approach uses a finite volume approximation for each of the phenomena and facilitates their interactions directly in the modeling-the complex geometries involved are addressed by using unstructured meshes. The very challenging issues to be overcome in this venture will be outlined and some preliminary results will be shown.

Multiphase modeling of melting / solidification with high density variations using XFEM

La modélisation de la cryolite, utilisée dans la fabrication de l’aluminium, implique plusieurs défis, notament la présence de discontinuités dans la solution et l’inclusion de la difference de densité entre les phases solide et liquide. Pour surmonter ces défis, plusieurs éléments novateurs ont été développés dans cette thèse. En premier lieu, le problème du changement de phase, communément appelé problème de Stefan, a été résolu en deux dimensions en utilisant la méthode des éléments finis étendue. Une formulation utilisant un multiplicateur de Lagrange stable spécialement développée et une interpolation enrichie a été utilisée pour imposer la température de fusion à l’interface. La vitesse de l’interface est déterminée par le saut dans le flux de chaleur à travers l’interface et a été calculée en utilisant la solution du multiplicateur de Lagrange. En second lieu, les effets convectifs ont été inclus par la résolution des équations de Stokes dans la phase liquide en utilisant la méthode des éléments finis étendue aussi. Troisièmement, le changement de densité entre les phases solide et liquide, généralement négligé dans la littérature, a été pris en compte par l’ajout d’une condition aux limites de vitesse non nulle à l’interface solide-liquide pour respecter la conservation de la masse dans le système. Des problèmes analytiques et numériques ont été résolus pour valider les divers composants du modèle et le système d’équations couplés. Les solutions aux problèmes numériques ont été comparées aux solutions obtenues avec l’algorithme de déplacement de maillage de Comsol. Ces comparaisons démontrent que le modèle par éléments finis étendue reproduit correctement le problème de changement phase avec densités variables.

User Behavioral Modeling of Web-based Systems for Continuous User Authentication

Authentication plays an important role in how we interact with computers, mobile devices, the web, etc. The idea of authentication is to uniquely identify a user before granting access to system privileges. For example, in recent years more corporate information and applications have been accessible via the Internet and Intranet. Many employees are working from remote locations and need access to secure corporate files. During this time, it is possible for malicious or unauthorized users to gain access to the system. For this reason, it is logical to have some mechanism in place to detect whether the logged-in user is the same user in control of the user's session. Therefore, highly secure authentication methods must be used. We posit that each of us is unique in our use of computer systems. It is this uniqueness that is leveraged to "continuously authenticate users" while they use web software. To monitor user behavior, n-gram models are used to capture user interactions with web-based software. This statistical language model essentially captures sequences and sub-sequences of user actions, their orderings, and temporal relationships that make them unique by providing a model of how each user typically behaves. Users are then continuously monitored during software operations. Large deviations from "normal behavior" can possibly indicate malicious or unintended behavior. This approach is implemented in a system called Intruder Detector (ID) that models user actions as embodied in web logs generated in response to a user's actions. User identification through web logs is cost-effective and non-intrusive. We perform experiments on a large fielded system with web logs of approximately 4000 users. For these experiments, we use two classification techniques; binary and multi-class classification. We evaluate model-specific differences of user behavior based on coarse-grain (i.e., role) and fine-grain (i.e., individual) analysis. A specific set of metrics are used to provide valuable insight into how each model performs. Intruder Detector achieves accurate results when identifying legitimate users and user types. This tool is also able to detect outliers in role-based user behavior with optimal performance. In addition to web applications, this continuous monitoring technique can be used with other user-based systems such as mobile devices and the analysis of network traffic.

Three dimensional modeling of contaminants transportation (oil spill) in Caspian Sea

Nowadays, Caspian Sea is in focus of more attentions than past because of its individualistic as the biggest lake in the world and the existing of very large oil and gas resources within it. Very large scale of oil pollution caused by development of oil exploration and excavation activities not only make problem for coastal facilities but also make severe damage on environment. In the first stage of this research, the location and quality of oil resources in offshore and onshore have been determined and then affected depletion factors on oil spill such as evaporation, emulsification, dissolution, sedimentation and so on have been studied. In second stage, sea hydrodynamics model is offered and tested by determination of governing hydrodynamic equations on sea currents and on pollution transportation in sea surface and by finding out main parameters in these equations such as Coriolis, bottom friction, wind and etc. this model has been calculated by using cell vertex finite volume method in an unstructured mesh domain. According to checked model; sea currents of Caspian Sea in different seasons of the year have been determined and in final stage different scenarios of oil spill movement in Caspian sea on various conditions have been investigated by modeling of three dimensional oil spill movement on surface (affected by sea currents) and on depth (affected by buoyancy, drag and gravity forces) by applying main above mentioned depletion factors.

The Control of a Mathematical Analog of a Tentacle

A 2-dimensional dynamic analog of squid tentacles was presented. The tentacle analog consists of a multi-cell structure, which can be easily replicated to a large scale. Each cell of the model is a quadrilateral with unit masses at the corners. Each side of the quadrilateral is a spring-damper system in parallel. The spring constants are the controls for the system. The dynamics are subject to the constraint that the area of each quadrilateral must remain constant. The system dynamics was analyzed, and various equilibrium points were found with different controls. Then these equilibrium points were further determined experimentally, demonstrated to be asymptotically stable. A simulation built in MATLAB was used to find the convergence rates under different controls and damping coefficients. Finally, a control scheme was developed and used to drive the system to several configurations observed in real tentacle.

Idealized modeling of the role of stability and shear on mesoscale gravity wave evolution

Mesoscale Gravity Waves (MGWs) are large pressure perturbations that form in the presence of a stable layer at the surface either behind Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in summer or over warm frontal surfaces behind elevated convection in winter. MGWs are associated with damaging winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and occasional heat bursts at the surface. The forcing mechanism for MGWs in this study is hypothesized to be evaporative cooling occurring behind a convective line. This evaporatively-cooled air generates a downdraft that then depresses the surface-based stable layer and causes pressure decreases, strong wind speeds and MGW genesis. Using the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) version 3.0, evaporative cooling is simulated using an imposed cold thermal. Sensitivity studies examine the response of MGW structure to different thermal and shear profiles where the strength and depth of the inversion are varied, as well as the amount of wind shear. MGWs are characterized in terms of response variables, such as wind speed perturbations (U'), temperature perturbations (T'), pressure perturbations (P'), potential temperature perturbations (Θ'), and the correlation coefficient (R) between U' and P'. Regime Diagrams portray the response of MGW to the above variables in order to better understand the formation, causes, and intensity of MGWs. The results of this study indicate that shallow, weak surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of elevation. Conversely, deep strong surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of depression. This is also the type of atmospheric setup that tends to produce substantial surface heating at the surface.

Statistical modeling of protein lysate array data

The protein lysate array is an emerging technology for quantifying the protein concentration ratios in multiple biological samples. It is gaining popularity, and has the potential to answer questions about post-translational modifications and protein pathway relationships. Statistical inference for a parametric quantification procedure has been inadequately addressed in the literature, mainly due to two challenges: the increasing dimension of the parameter space and the need to account for dependence in the data. Each chapter of this thesis addresses one of these issues. In Chapter 1, an introduction to the protein lysate array quantification is presented, followed by the motivations and goals for this thesis work. In Chapter 2, we develop a multi-step procedure for the Sigmoidal models, ensuring consistent estimation of the concentration level with full asymptotic efficiency. The results obtained in this chapter justify inferential procedures based on large-sample approximations. Simulation studies and real data analysis are used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method in finite-samples. The multi-step procedure is simpler in both theory and computation than the single-step least squares method that has been used in current practice. In Chapter 3, we introduce a new model to account for the dependence structure of the errors by a nonlinear mixed effects model. We consider a method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator of all the parameters. Using the simulation studies on various error structures, we show that for data with non-i.i.d. errors the proposed method leads to more accurate estimates and better confidence intervals than the existing single-step least squares method.

Monte Carlo modeling of the patient and treatment delivery complexities for high dose rate brachytherapy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Computational modeling of laser-induced delamination testing of thin films

Thin film adhesion often determines microelectronic device reliability and it is therefore essential to have experimental techniques that accurately and efficiently characterize it. Laser-induced delamination is a novel technique that uses laser-generated stress waves to load thin films at high strain rates and extract the fracture toughness of the film/substrate interface. The effectiveness of the technique in measuring the interface properties of metallic films has been documented in previous studies. The objective of the current effort is to model the effect of residual stresses on the dynamic delamination of thin films. Residual stresses can be high enough to affect the crack advance and the mode mixity of the delimitation event, and must therefore be adequately modeled to make accurate and repeatable predictions of fracture toughness. The equivalent axial force and bending moment generated by the residual stresses are included in a dynamic, nonlinear finite element model of the delaminating film, and the impact of residual stresses on the final extent of the interfacial crack, the relative contribution of shear failure, and the deformed shape of the delaminated film is studied in detail. Another objective of the study is to develop techniques to address issues related to the testing of polymeric films. These type of films adhere well to silicon and the resulting crack advance is often much smaller than for metallic films, making the extraction of the interface fracture toughness more difficult. The use of an inertial layer which enhances the amount of kinetic energy trapped in the film and thus the crack advance is examined. It is determined that the inertial layer does improve the crack advance, although in a relatively limited fashion. The high interface toughness of polymer films often causes the film to fail cohesively when the crack front leaves the weakly bonded region and enters the strong interface. The use of a tapered pre-crack region that provides a more gradual transition to the strong interface is examined. The tapered triangular pre-crack geometry is found to be effective in reducing the stresses induced thereby making it an attractive option. We conclude by studying the impact of modifying the pre-crack geometry to enable the testing of multiple polymer films.

Experimental Modeling of Twin-Screw Extrusion Processes to Predict Properties of Extruded Composites

Twin-screw extrusion is used to compound fillers into a polymer matrix in order to improve the properties of the final product. The resultant properties of the composite are determined by the operating conditions used during extrusion processing. Changes in the operating conditions affect the physics of the melt flow, inducing unique composite properties. In the following work, the Residence Stress Distribution methodology has been applied to model both the stress behavior and the property response of a twin-screw compounding process as a function of the operating conditions. The compounding of a pigment into a polymer melt has been investigated to determine the effect of stress on the degree of mixing, which will affect the properties of the composite. In addition, the pharmaceutical properties resulting from the compounding of an active pharmaceutical ingredient are modeled as a function of the operating conditions, indicating the physical behavior inducing the property responses.

Physical modeling of processes of sediment transport in inlets

During the transformation of the low tide to the high tide, an exactly inverse phenomenon is occurred and the high tidal delta is formed at the mouth upstream. Increasing the tidal range does not affect the nature of this phenomenon and just change its intensity. In this situation, the inlet will be balance over time. A new relationship between equilibrium cross section and tidal prism for different tidal levels as well as sediment grading has been provided which its results are corresponded with results of numerical modeling. In the combination state, the wave height significantly affects the current and sedimentary pattern such that the wave height dimensionless index (Hw/Ht) determines the dominant parameter (the short period wave or tide) in the inlet. It is notable that in this state, the inlet will be balanced over the time. In order to calculate sedimentary phenomena, each of which are individually determined under solely wave and only tide conditions and then they are added. Estimated values are similar to numerical modeling results of the combination state considering nonlinear terms. Also, it is clear that the wave and tide performance is of meaning in the direct relationship with the water level. The water level change causes variations of the position of the breaking line and sedimentary active area. It changes the current and sedimentary pattern coastward while does not change anything seaward. Based on modeling results of sediment transport due to the wave, tide and their combination, it could be said that the erosion at the mouth due to the wave is less than that due to the wave and tide combination. In these situations, tide and wave-tide combination increase the low tidal and high tidal delta volume, respectively. Hence, tide plays an effective role in changing sedimentary phenomena at the channel and mouth downstream. Whereas, short period and combined waves have a crucial role in varying the morphology and sediment transport coast ward.

An introduction to mathematical models of coagulation-fragmentation processes: a discrete deterministic mean-field approach

We summarise the properties and the fundamental mathematical results associated with basic models which describe coagulation and fragmentation processes in a deterministic manner and in which cluster size is a discrete quantity (an integer multiple of some basic unit size). In particular, we discuss Smoluchowski's equation for aggregation, the Becker-Döring model of simultaneous aggregation and fragmentation, and more general models involving coagulation and fragmentation.

Frequency of elemental events of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics

The dynamics of intracellular Ca²⁺ is driven by random events called Ca²⁺ puffs, in which Ca²⁺ is liberated from intracellular stores. We show that the emergence of Ca²⁺ puffs can be mapped to an escape process. The mean first passage times that correspond to the stochastic fraction of puff periods are computed from a novel master equation and two Fokker-Planck equations. Our results demonstrate that the mathematical modeling of Ca²⁺ puffs has to account for the discrete character of the Ca²⁺ release sites and does not permit a continuous description of the number of open channels.