Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

As diferentes “personalidades” do número racional trabalhadas através da resolução de problemas

We address the different "personalities" of the rational number and the concept of proportionality, analyzing the possibilities for using the Mathematics Teaching and Learning through Problem-solving Method. This method is based on the principle that knowledge can be constructed through the use of problems that generate new concepts and new contents. The different meanings of rational number - rational point, quotient, fraction, ratio, and operator - are constructs that depend on mathematical theories in which they are imbedded and the situations that evoke them in problem-solving. Some data will be presented from continuing education courses for teachers, aiming to contribute to understanding regarding the different "personalities" of the rational number. In general, these "personalities" are not easily identified by teachers and students, which is the reason for the many difficulties encountered during problem-solving involving rational numbers. One of these "personalities", the ratio, provides the basis for the concept of proportionality, which is relevant because it is a unifying idea in mathematics.

Stochastic field processes in the mathematical modelling of damped transmission line vibrations

Wind-excited vibrations in the frequency range of 10 to 50 Hz due to vortex shedding often cause fatigue failures in the cables of overhead transmission lines. Damping devices, such as the Stockbridge dampers, have been in use for a long time for supressing these vibrations. The dampers are conveniently modelled by means of their driving point impedance, measured in the lab over the frequency range under consideration. The cables can be modelled as strings with additional small bending stiffness. The main problem in modelling the vibrations does however lay in the aerodynamic forces, which usually are approximated by the forces acting on a rigid cylinder in planar flow. In the present paper, the wind forces are represented by stochastic processes with arbitrary crosscorrelation in space; the case of a Kármán vortex street on a rigid cylinder in planar flow is contained as a limit case in this approach. The authors believe that this new view of the problem may yield useful results, particularly also concerning the reliability of the lines and the probability of fatigue damages. © 1987.

Desenvolvimento da quantificacao em geografia

Considering the textbooks, papers and articles published during the last decades, this paper deals with the development of the quantitative analysis in Geography. The comments are grouped into the following thematic questions: contributions aiming to introduce concepts and techniques in the geographical issues, focusing statistical and mathematical background and specific techniques about spatial and temporal distributions; contributions evaluating the potentialities of the quantification; contributions showing the character and applicability of the quantificative techniques, and the state of the use of these techniques in Brazilian literature and teaching. -English summary

Image registration and image interpolation in volume rendering of cross sections

We outline a method for registration of images of cross sections using the concepts of The Generalized Hough Transform (GHT). The approach may be useful in situations where automation should be a concern. To overcome known problems of noise of traditional GHT we have implemented a slight modified version of the basic algorithm. The modification consists of eliminating points of no interest in the process before the application of the accumulation step of the algorithm. This procedure minimizes the amount of accumulation points while reducing the probability of appearing of spurious peaks. Also, we apply image warping techniques to interpolate images among cross sections. This is needed where the distance of samples between sections is too large. Then it is suggested that the step of registration with GHT can help the interpolation automation by simplifying the correspondence between points of images. Some results are shown.

Tensoes Residuais na Soldagem, Aspectos Basicos

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the basic aspects of the residual stresses in welding. Concepts about macro and micro residual stresses in metals are considered in welding. In a simple welding model is shown how shrinkage macro stress results and how this can contribute to understand the distribution of residual stresses in common type of welded joint. Further, comments are made concerning the effects of additional mechanical and metallurgical phenomena, distortion in weldments and dimensional discrepancies.

Power analysis applying the instantaneous complex power analytical expressions on a RL symmetrical three-phase system

This paper enhances some concepts of the Instantaneous Complex Power Theory by analyzing the analytical expressions for voltages, currents and powers developed on a symmetrical RL three-phase system, during the transient caused by a sinusoidal voltage excitation. The powers delivered to an ideal inductor will be interpreted, allowing a deep insight in the power phenomenon by analyzing the voltages in each element of the circuit. The results can be applied to the understanding of non-linear systems subject to sinusoidal voltage excitation and distorted currents.

Theoretical approaches to forensic entomology: II. Mathematical model of larval development

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Control automatico de un sistema electrico mediante logica difusa

Substitution of fuzzy logic control in an electrical system normally controlled by proportional-integral frequency was studied and analyzed. A linear model of an electrical system, the concepts which govern the theory of fuzzy logic, and the application of this theory to systems control, are briefly presented. The methodology of fuzzy logic was then applied to develop a model for an electrical energy system. The results of the simulation demonstrated that fuzzy logic control eliminated the area frequency error and permitted that only the area experiencing an increase in charge responds to this variation. Based on the results, it is concluded that control based on fuzzy logic is simple, is easy to maintain, is of low cost, and can be used to substitute traditional velocity controllers.

Study on transient ice formation of laminar flow inside externally supercooled rectangular duct

The transient process of solidification of laminar liquid flow (water) submitted to super-cooling was investigated both theoretically and experimentally. In this study an alternative analytical formulation and numerical approach were adopted resulting in the unsteady model with temperature dependent thermophysical properties in the solid region. The proposed model is based upon the fundamental equations of energy balance in the solid and liquid regions as well as across the solidification front. The basic equations and the associated boundary and initial conditions were made dimensionless by using the Landau transformation to immobilize the moving front and render the problem to a fixed plane type problem. A laminar velocity profile is admitted in the liquid domain and the resulting equations were discretized using the finite difference approach. The numerical predictions obtained were compared with the available results based on other models and concepts such as Neumann analytical model, the apparent thermal capacity model due to Bonacina and the conventional fixed grid energy model due to Goodrich. To obtain further comparisons and more validation of the model and the numerical solution, an experimental rig was constructed and instrumented permitting very well controlled experimental measurements. The numerical predictions were compared with the experimental results and the agreement was found satisfactory.

The Bauru Group: A continental Cretaceous unit in Brazil - Concepts based on micropaleontological, oxygen isotope and stratigraphical data

The integration of outcrop and subsurface information, including micropaleontological data, facies and sequence stratigraphic studies, and oxygen isotope analysis, allow us to present a new stratigraphic model for the Cretaceous continental deposits of the Bauru Group, Brazil. Thirty-eight fossil taxa were recovered from these deposits, including 29 species of ostracodes and 9 species of charophytes. Seven of these ostracode species and three subspecies are new and formally described here. The associations of Chara barbosai - Ilyocypris cf. riograndensis, found in the Adamantina Formation, and Amblyochara sp. - Neuquenocypris minor mineira nov. subsp., found in the Marília Formation. Ponte Alta Member, represent two distinct groups that are respectively Turonian-Santonian and Maastrichtian (probably Late Maastrichtian) in age. Therefore, a hiatus, encompassing more than 11 Ma, separates those two formations. From bottom to top, four depositional cycles were recognized in the Bauru Group in western São Paulo: cycles 1 and 2 belong to Caiuá Formation (fluvio-lacustrine and lacustrine deposits in the Presidente Prudente region), cycle 3 to the Santo Anastácio and lower Adamantina Formation (respectively fluvial and lacustrine deposits), and cycle 4 to the upper Adamantina Formation (fluvio-lacustrine facies). An erosional unconformity separates the Caiuá and Santo Anastácio Formations (between cycles 2 and 3). The Marília Formation is a distinct unit from the underlying succession; it does not occur in western São Paulo, but is found in restricted areas of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás States. During the deposition of the Bauru Group (Aptian? to Maastrichtian) the climate was hot and arid-semiarid. Shallow lakes underwent fluctuations in expansion (wet phases) and contraction (dry phases), as well as variations in salinity. During the deposition of the Adamantina Formation (Turonian-Santonian) there were long, dry periods that caused segmentation of large lakes (due to topographic irregularities in the basaltic substrate) and sometimes exposures of the lake floors; when flooded these lake floors were colonized by extensive meadows of single species of charophytes. Small ephemeral ponds, that were hydrochemically unstable and colonized by multiple species of charophytes, were the depositional sites for the marls and mudstones of Ponte Alta Member (Maastrichtian, Late Maastrichtian?). Our micropaleontological age control, combined with the Late Cretaceous ages of volcanic ashes found in the southeastern Brazil coastal basins, and the stratigraphic position of analcimites from the Jaboticabal-SP region, suggest a Late Coniacian-Santonian age for important magmatic events occurred in the interior of Brazil (north-central São Paulo State, Triângulo Mineiro, and southwestern Goiás State).

A disease evolution model with uncertain parameters

In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

On the solution of mathematical programming problems with equilibrium constraints

Mathematical programming problems with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) are nonlinear programming problems where the constraints have a form that is analogous to first-order optimality conditions of constrained optimization. We prove that, under reasonable sufficient conditions, stationary points of the sum of squares of the constraints are feasible points of the MPEC. In usual formulations of MPEC all the feasible points are nonregular in the sense that they do not satisfy the Mangasarian-Fromovitz constraint qualification of nonlinear programming. Therefore, all the feasible points satisfy the classical Fritz-John necessary optimality conditions. In principle, this can cause serious difficulties for nonlinear programming algorithms applied to MPEC. However, we show that most feasible points do not satisfy a recently introduced stronger optimality condition for nonlinear programming. This is the reason why, in general, nonlinear programming algorithms are successful when applied to MPEC.