GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Clientelismo y poder político en los inicios del siglo XX. Tensiones, disputas e intercambios entre lo micro y lo macro : Benito Juárez y la provincia de Buenos Aires

En esta tesis, analizamos la praxis política entre 1902 y 1930 poniendo en tensión el espacio bonaerense con un microcosmos: el de la localidad del interior provincial Benito Juárez. Partimos de considerar que dicha praxis se caracterizó por una multiplicidad de actuaciones (algunas conocidas, otras novedosas) dotadas de sentido y articuladas por el clientelismo político. Nuestro estudio aborda los modos en que los actores entendieron, configuraron y practicaron la política por aquellos años. En ese sentido, el clientelismo y el imaginario social en torno a la política son dos conceptos centrales de esta investigación. La tesis se estructura en tres partes: la primera, dedicada a aspectos teórico- metodológicos, está compuesta por dos capítulos en los que realizamos un bosquejo por las principales características del período y los modos en que pueden entenderse nuestros conceptos (vinculándolos a las hipótesis); damos cuenta también allí de las fuentes empleadas y la metodología. En la segunda parte nos detenemos en el juego político bonaerense. Compuesta por tres capítulos, en ella abordamos las leyes electorales provinciales vistas en perspectiva con los preceptos de la legislación reformista (desde el último tercio del siglo XIX hasta 1930) y la contribución al imaginario epocal de la Revista Argentina de Ciencias Políticas (1910-1928) y el semanario Caras y Caretas (1898-1930). En la última parte de la tesis, consideramos la vida sociopolítica en el municipio de Benito Juárez, a partir de la trayectoria de un político preeminente: Pedro Díaz Pumará. A lo largo de dos capítulos, estudiamos el imaginario social en torno a la política local, los procesos electorales, las estrategias desarrolladas por Don Pedro así como las de quienes conformaron su base social de apoyo y de quienes resistieron a su liderazgo. Finalmente, en las conclusiones sistematizamos las consideraciones de cada capítulo considerando para ello nuestra 2hipótesis heurística y las que de ella se desprenden. Planteamos la conformación del clientelismo político en actos domésticos cotidianos, el carácter bifronte de un líder frente a los asuntos provinciales y locales, la novedosa legitimidad en torno a las urnas desde 1912, la construcción de leyes que permiten accionares ya conocidos, la heterogeneidad de las bases sociales de apoyo, las lógicas de quienes se oponen a un caudillo y las estrategias desarrolladas por los participantes de la vida política

Clientelismo y poder político en los inicios del siglo XX. Tensiones, disputas e intercambios entre lo micro y lo macro : Benito Juárez y la provincia de Buenos Aires

En esta tesis, analizamos la praxis política entre 1902 y 1930 poniendo en tensión el espacio bonaerense con un microcosmos: el de la localidad del interior provincial Benito Juárez. Partimos de considerar que dicha praxis se caracterizó por una multiplicidad de actuaciones (algunas conocidas, otras novedosas) dotadas de sentido y articuladas por el clientelismo político. Nuestro estudio aborda los modos en que los actores entendieron, configuraron y practicaron la política por aquellos años. En ese sentido, el clientelismo y el imaginario social en torno a la política son dos conceptos centrales de esta investigación. La tesis se estructura en tres partes: la primera, dedicada a aspectos teórico- metodológicos, está compuesta por dos capítulos en los que realizamos un bosquejo por las principales características del período y los modos en que pueden entenderse nuestros conceptos (vinculándolos a las hipótesis); damos cuenta también allí de las fuentes empleadas y la metodología. En la segunda parte nos detenemos en el juego político bonaerense. Compuesta por tres capítulos, en ella abordamos las leyes electorales provinciales vistas en perspectiva con los preceptos de la legislación reformista (desde el último tercio del siglo XIX hasta 1930) y la contribución al imaginario epocal de la Revista Argentina de Ciencias Políticas (1910-1928) y el semanario Caras y Caretas (1898-1930). En la última parte de la tesis, consideramos la vida sociopolítica en el municipio de Benito Juárez, a partir de la trayectoria de un político preeminente: Pedro Díaz Pumará. A lo largo de dos capítulos, estudiamos el imaginario social en torno a la política local, los procesos electorales, las estrategias desarrolladas por Don Pedro así como las de quienes conformaron su base social de apoyo y de quienes resistieron a su liderazgo. Finalmente, en las conclusiones sistematizamos las consideraciones de cada capítulo considerando para ello nuestra 2hipótesis heurística y las que de ella se desprenden. Planteamos la conformación del clientelismo político en actos domésticos cotidianos, el carácter bifronte de un líder frente a los asuntos provinciales y locales, la novedosa legitimidad en torno a las urnas desde 1912, la construcción de leyes que permiten accionares ya conocidos, la heterogeneidad de las bases sociales de apoyo, las lógicas de quienes se oponen a un caudillo y las estrategias desarrolladas por los participantes de la vida política

Clientelismo y poder político en los inicios del siglo XX. Tensiones, disputas e intercambios entre lo micro y lo macro : Benito Juárez y la provincia de Buenos Aires

En esta tesis, analizamos la praxis política entre 1902 y 1930 poniendo en tensión el espacio bonaerense con un microcosmos: el de la localidad del interior provincial Benito Juárez. Partimos de considerar que dicha praxis se caracterizó por una multiplicidad de actuaciones (algunas conocidas, otras novedosas) dotadas de sentido y articuladas por el clientelismo político. Nuestro estudio aborda los modos en que los actores entendieron, configuraron y practicaron la política por aquellos años. En ese sentido, el clientelismo y el imaginario social en torno a la política son dos conceptos centrales de esta investigación. La tesis se estructura en tres partes: la primera, dedicada a aspectos teórico- metodológicos, está compuesta por dos capítulos en los que realizamos un bosquejo por las principales características del período y los modos en que pueden entenderse nuestros conceptos (vinculándolos a las hipótesis); damos cuenta también allí de las fuentes empleadas y la metodología. En la segunda parte nos detenemos en el juego político bonaerense. Compuesta por tres capítulos, en ella abordamos las leyes electorales provinciales vistas en perspectiva con los preceptos de la legislación reformista (desde el último tercio del siglo XIX hasta 1930) y la contribución al imaginario epocal de la Revista Argentina de Ciencias Políticas (1910-1928) y el semanario Caras y Caretas (1898-1930). En la última parte de la tesis, consideramos la vida sociopolítica en el municipio de Benito Juárez, a partir de la trayectoria de un político preeminente: Pedro Díaz Pumará. A lo largo de dos capítulos, estudiamos el imaginario social en torno a la política local, los procesos electorales, las estrategias desarrolladas por Don Pedro así como las de quienes conformaron su base social de apoyo y de quienes resistieron a su liderazgo. Finalmente, en las conclusiones sistematizamos las consideraciones de cada capítulo considerando para ello nuestra 2hipótesis heurística y las que de ella se desprenden. Planteamos la conformación del clientelismo político en actos domésticos cotidianos, el carácter bifronte de un líder frente a los asuntos provinciales y locales, la novedosa legitimidad en torno a las urnas desde 1912, la construcción de leyes que permiten accionares ya conocidos, la heterogeneidad de las bases sociales de apoyo, las lógicas de quienes se oponen a un caudillo y las estrategias desarrolladas por los participantes de la vida política

Examination of Inequalities in Hungary by Microsimulation in Consistency with Macro Data

Effective decision making uses various databases including both micro and macro level datasets. In many cases it is a big challenge to ensure the consistency of the two levels. Different types of problems can occur and several methods can be used to solve them. The paper concentrates on the input alignment of the households’ income for microsimulation, which means refers to improving the elements of a micro data survey (EU-SILC) by using macro data from administrative sources. We use a combined micro-macro model called ECONS-TAX for this improvement. We also produced model projections until 2015 which is important because the official EU-SILC micro database will only be available in Hungary in the summer of 2017. The paper presents our estimations about the dynamics of income elements and the changes in income inequalities. Results show that the aligned data provides a different level of income inequality, but does not affect the direction of change from year to year. However, when we analyzed policy change, the use of aligned data caused larger differences both in income levels and in their dynamics.

Combining micro and macro data in hedonic price indexes

This paper proposes arithmetic and geometric Paasche quality-adjusted price indexes that combine micro data from the base period with macro data on the averages of asset prices and characteristics at the index period.

Desenvolvimento de tecnologias para o manejo integrado de pragas da macieira e pereira. Atividade: Bioindicadores de macro fauna de solo para avaliação de impacto do manejo fitossanitário.

Este estudo foi realizado com o objetivo de analisar o impacto antrópico comparando as populações de macrofauna de solo de diferentes sistemas ambientais. A avaliação do impacto na variabilidade e quantidade da macrofauna comparadas entre si permitirá a criação de um índice bioindicador expedito de qualidade ambiental, que poderá ser utilizado pelo produtor, auxiliando no registro da evolução dos processos de degradação ou recuperação de uma área. Para realizar este trabalho, foram escolhidos nove locais para armadilhas, sendo oito na unidade da Embrapa Uva e Vinho (pomar orgânico, capoeira, bosque, pomar pequenos frutos, campo nativo, pomar em implantação, pomar convencional, área de pinnus) e uma lavoura de grãos ao lado da unidade, todos com as mesmas condições de clima e solo.

Teores de micronutrientes em plantas de sorgo forrageiro irrigadas com efluente salino de piscicultura.

O conhecimento do estado nutricional de uma cultura em condições salinas é essencial para definir qual o manejo mais adequado para o seu cultivo. Com isto, objetivou-se com o presente estudo avaliar o estado nutricional de micronutrientes catiônicos de variedades de sorgo forrageiro irrigadas com efluente salino de piscicultura. O estudo foi implantado no município de Petrolina/PE no ano de 2013, em Argissolo Vermelho Amarelo. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos foram dispostos em parcelas subdivididas, sendo as parcelas quatro frações de lixiviação: 0; 5; 10 e 15%, com efluente salino (2,57 dS m-1) proveniente de piscicultura e as subparcelas três variedades de sorgo forrageiro: Volumax, F305 e Sudão. A colheita foi realizada quando os grãos da porção central da panícula apresentaram aspecto pastoso a farináceo. Foram coletadas amostras do limbo foliar para determinação dos teores cobre, ferro, manganês e zinco por espectrofotometria de absorção atômica. Verificou-se que a aplicação de frações de lixiviação proporcionou uma redução nos teores de ferro, manganês e zinco, e um aumento no teor de cobre nos tecidos foliares de sorgo forrageiro.

Deficiencia de micronutrientes em solo podzolico vermelho-amarelo e sua correcao com "Pellet" de F.T.E.

1974

Experimental and numerical investigation on short and long term performance of macro-synthetic fibre reinforced concrete materials

Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.

Monitoring of macro- and microlitter in the Venice lagoon and coastal area

Marine litter and plastics are a significant and growing marine contaminant that has become a global problem. Macrolitter is subject to fragmentation and degradation due to physical, chemical and biological processes, leading to the formation of micro-litter, the so-called microplastics. The purpose of this research is to assess marine litter pollution by using remote sensing tools to identify areas of macrolitter accumulation and to evaluate the concentrations of microplastics in different environmental matrices: water, sediment and biota (i.e. mussels and fish) and to contribute to the European project MAELSTROM (Smart technology for MArinE Litter SusTainable RemOval and Management). The aim is to monitor the presence of macro- and microlitter at two sites of the Venice coastal area: an abandoned mussel farm at sea and a lagoon site near the artificial Island of Sacca Fisola; The results showed that both study areas are characterised by high amounts of marine litter, but the type of observed litter is different. In fact, in the mussel farm area, most of the litter is linked to aquaculture activities (ropes, nets, mooring blocks and floating buoys). In the Venice lagoon site, the litter comes more from urban activities and from the city of Venice (car tyres, crates, wrecks, etc.). Microplastics is present in both sites and in all the analysed matrices. Generally, higher microplastics concentrations were found at Sacca Fisola (i.e., in surface waters, mussels and fish). Moreover, some differences were also observed in shapes and colours comparing the two sites. At Sacca Fisola, white irregular fragments predominate in water samples, blue filaments in sediment and mussels, and transparent irregular fragments in fish. At the Mussel Farm, blue filaments predominate in water, sediment and mussels, while flat black fragments predominate in fish. These differences are related to the different types of macrolitter that characterised the two areas.

Alimentação, nutrição e a saúde da família: desequilíbrio nutricional e carência de vitaminas e micronutrientes

Aborda o desequilíbrio nutricional destacando os fatores que podem intervir na dinâmica entre consumo alimentar e as necessidades nutricionais que pode resultar em obesidade ou desnutrição, além da carência de vitaminas (Complexo B, vitaminas A, C e D) e sais minerais (Zinco, iodo e ferro). Unidade 3 do módulo 13 “Alimentação e nutrição” do Curso de Especialização em Saúde da Família.

[theoretical Construction In The Sociology Of Health: A Reflection On Its Trajectory].

The scope of this paper is to reflect on the theoretical construction in the constitution of the sociology of health, still called medical sociology in some countries. Two main ideas constitute the basis for this: interdisciplinarity and the degree of articulation in the fields of medicine and sociology. We sought to establish a dialogue with some dimensions - macro/micro, structure/action - that constitute the basis for understanding medicine/health in relation to the social/sociological dimension. The main aspects of these dimensions are initially presented. Straus' two medical sociologies and the theory/application impasses are then addressed, as well as the dilemmas of the sociology of medicine in the 1960s and 1970s. From these analyses the theoretical production before 1970 is placed as a counterpoint. Lastly, the sociology of health is seen in the general context of sociology, which underwent a fragmentation process from 1970 with effects in all subfields of the social sciences. This process involves a rethinking of the theoretical issues in a broadened spectrum of possibilities. The 1980s are highlighted when theoretical issues in the sociology of health are reinvigorated and the issue of interdisciplinarity is once again addressed.

[need For Orthodontic Treatment Among Brazilian Adolescents: Evaluation Based On Public Health].

To identify the prevalence and the severity of malocclusions and to analyze factors associated with the need for orthodontic treatment of Brazilian adolescents. This exploratory, cross-sectional study was carried out based on secondary data from the national epidemiological survey on oral health in Brazil (2002-2003). Socio-demographic conditions, self-perception, and the existence and degree of malocclusion, using the Dental Aesthetic Index, were evaluated in 16,833 adolescent Brazilians selected by probabilistic sample by conglomerates. The dependent variable - need orthodontic treatment - was estimated from the severity of malocclusion. The magnitude and direction of the association in bivariate and multivariate analyzes from a Robust Poisson regression was estimated RESULTS: The majority of the adolescents needed orthodontic treatment (53.2%). In the multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the need for orthodontic treatment was larger among females, non-whites, those that perceived a need for treatment, and those that perceived their appearance as normal, bad, or very bad. The need for orthodontic treatment was smaller among those that lived in the Northeast and Central West macro-regions compared to those living in Southeast Brazil and it was also smaller among those that perceived their chewing to be normal or their oral health to be bad or very bad. There was a high prevalence of orthodontic treatment need among adolescents in Brazil and this need was associated with demographic and subjective issues. The high prevalence of orthodontic needs in adolescents is a challenge to the goals of Brazil's universal public health system.