Monte Carlo study of a kinetic lattice model with random diffusion of disorder

We report Monte Carlo results for a nonequilibrium Ising-like model in two and three dimensions. Nearest-neighbor interactions J change sign randomly with time due to competing kinetics. There follows a fast and random, i.e., spin-configuration-independent diffusion of Js, of the kind that takes place in dilute metallic alloys when magnetic ions diffuse. The system exhibits steady states of the ferromagnetic (antiferromagnetic) type when the probability p that J>0 is large (small) enough. No counterpart to the freezing phenomena found in quenched spin glasses occurs. We compare our results with existing mean-field and exact ones, and obtain information about critical behavior.

Use of aggregating brain cell cultures to study developmental effects of organophosphorus insecticides.

Aggregating brain cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon can be grown in a chemically defined medium for extended periods of time. After a phase of intense mitotic activity, these three-dimensional cell cultures undergo extensive morphological differentiation, including synaptogenesis and myelination. To study the developmental toxicity of organophosphorus compounds (OP), aggregating brain cell cultures were treated with parathion. Protein content and cell type-specific enzyme activities were not affected up to a concentration of 10(5) M. Gliosis, characterized by an increased staining for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), was observed in immature and in differentiated cells. In contrast, uridine incorporation and myelin basic protein (MBP) immunoreactivity revealed strong differences in sensitivity between these two developmental stages. These results are in agreement with the view that in vivo the development-dependent toxicity is not only due to changes in hepatic detoxification, but also to age-related modifications in the susceptibility of the different populations of brain cells. Furthermore, they underline the usefulness of histotypic culture systems with a high developmental potential, such as aggregating brain cell cultures, and stress the importance of applying a large range of criteria for testing the developmental toxicity of potential neurotoxicants.

Systematic surgical closure of patent foramen ovale in selected patients with cerebrovascular events due to paradoxical embolism. Early results of a preliminary study.

OBJECTIVE: To define therapeutic strategy for management of patients with ischemic stroke due to a high probability of paradoxical embolism through a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO). METHODS: Since 1988 all consecutive patients with cerebrovascular events and PFO from the Stroke Registry of our population-based primary-care center are prospectively studied and followed. Since 1992, among 118 patients with cryptogenic embolic brain infarct or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO, 32 consecutive patients younger than 60 years who presented at least two of the following criteria were admitted for surgery: history of Valsalva strain before stroke (11); multiple clinical events (13); multiple infarcts on brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (15); atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) (16); large right-to-left shunt (> 50 microbubbles) (12). RESULTS: Operative time 135' +/- 33'. CPB time 34' +/- 14'. Aortic crossclamping time 16' +/- 6'. Post-operative bleeding 485 +/- 170 ml. No homologous blood transfusion required. No neurological, cardiac or renal complications. All patients were followed-up corresponding to a cumulative time of 601 patient-months. This revealed no recurrent vascular events nor silent new brain lesions on brain MRI. Systematic simultaneous contrast Trans Esophageal Echocardiography (TEE)-Trans Cranial Doppler showed a small residual interatrial shunt in two patients. CONCLUSION: Surgical closure of a patent foramen ovale can be accomplished with very low morbidity and reduce efficiently the risk of stroke recurrence. It seems to be the option of choice in selected patients with a higher (> 1.5%/year) risk of stroke recurrence.

Business Development Efforts and Performance Improvements in SMEs Case Study of Business Development Projects Implemented in SME

Under the circumstances of the increasing market pressure, enterprises try to improve their competitive position by development efforts, and a business development project is one tool for that. There are not many answers to the question of how the development projects launched to improve the business performance in SMEs have succeeded. Theacademic interest in the business development project success has mainly focused on projects implemented in larger organisations rather than in SMEs. The previous studies on the business success of SMEs have mainly focused on new business ventures rather than on existing SMEs. However, nowadays a large number of business development projects are undertaken in existing SMEs, where they can pose a great challenge. This study focuses on business development success in SMEs thathave already established their business. The objective of the present study is to gain a deep understanding on business development project success in the SME-context and to identify the dimensions and factors affecting the project success. Further, the aim is to clarify how the business development projects implemented in SMEs have affected their performance. The empirical evidence is based on multiple case study. This study builds a framework for a generic theory of business development success in the SME-context, based on literature from the areas ofproject and change management, entrepreneurship and small business management, as well as performance measurement, and on empirical evidence from SMES. The framework consists of five success dimensions: entrepreneurial, project preparation, change management, project management and project success. The framework provides a systematic way for analysing the business development project and its impact on the performance and on the performing company. This case evidence indicates that successful business development projects have a balanced, high performance concerning all the dimensions. Good performance in one dimension is not enoughfor the project success, but it gives a good ground for the other dimensions. The other way round, poor performance in one success dimension affects the others, leading to poor performance of the project. In the SME-context the business development project success seems to be dependent on several interrelated dimensions and factors. Success in one area leads to success in other areas, and so creates an upward success spiral. Failure in one area seems to lead to failure in other areas, creating a downward failure spiral. The study indicates that the internal business development projects have affected the SMEs' performance widely also on areas and functions not initially targeted. The implications cover all thesuccess categories: the project efficiency, the impact on the customer, the business success and the future potentiality. With successful cases, the success tends to spread out to areas and functions not mentioned as the project goals, andwith unsuccessful cases the failure seems to spread out widely to the SMEs' other functions. This study also indicates that the most important key factors for successful business development project implementation are the strength of intention, business ability, knowledge, motivation and participation of the employees, as well as adequate and well-timed training provided to the employees.

MLL2 mutation detection in 86 patients with Kabuki syndrome: a genotype-phenotype study.

Recently, pathogenic variants in the MLL2 gene were identified as the most common cause of Kabuki (Niikawa-Kuroki) syndrome (MIM#147920). To further elucidate the genotype-phenotype correlation, we studied a large cohort of 86 clinically defined patients with Kabuki syndrome (KS) for mutations in MLL2. All patients were assessed using a standardized phenotype list and all were scored using a newly developed clinical score list for KS (MLL2-Kabuki score 0-10). Sequencing of the full coding region and intron-exon boundaries of MLL2 identified a total of 45 likely pathogenic mutations (52%): 31 nonsense, 10 missense and four splice-site mutations, 34 of which were novel. In five additional patients, novel, i.e. non-dbSNP132 variants of clinically unknown relevance, were identified. Patients with likely pathogenic nonsense or missense MLL2 mutations were usually more severely affected (median 'MLL2-Kabuki score' of 6) as compared to the patients without MLL2 mutations (median 'MLL2-Kabuki score' of 5), a significant difference (p < 0.0014). Several typical facial features such as large dysplastic ears, arched eyebrows with sparse lateral third, blue sclerae, a flat nasal tip with a broad nasal root, and a thin upper and a full lower lip were observed more often in mutation positive patients.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

Software SMEs asStrategic Partners in the Partner Programs of Large International Companies

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia pienten- ja keskisuurten (PK) ohjelmistoyritysten kansainvälisiä kumppanuuksia. Päätavoitteena oli löytää keinoja kuinka PK-ohjelmistoyritykset voisivat tulla strategisiksi kumppaneksi suurten kansainvälisten yritysten kumppanuusohjelmissa. Lisäksi tutkielmassa oli tavoitteena selvittää kuinka kumppaneiden välistä sitoutumista voitaisiin vahvistaa, jotta PK-ohjelmistoyritykset voisivat saavuttaa todellista lisäarvoa ja kansainvälistä kasvua kumppanuusohjelmien kautta. Tutkielma jakaantuu teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Teoreettinen osa keskittyy tarkastelemaan korkean teknologian markkinointia ohjelmistoalalla sekä kansainvälisiä kumppanuuksia. Suurten yritystenkumppanuusohjelmia ei ole tutkittu suomalaisten PK-ohjelmistoyritysten näkökulmasta, minkä vuoksi empiirinen tutkimus on perusteltua. Empiirinen tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisena case-tutkimuksena ja tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin puolistrukturoitua haastattelua. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että strategisen kumppanin aseman saavuttaminen on pitkä ja haastava matka PK-yrityksille. Suurten kansainvälisten yritysten kumppanuusohjelmat ovat useimmiten monimutkaisia ja todellisen lisäarvon saavuttaminen kumppanuusohjelman kautta vaatii paljon resursseja PK-yrityksiltä. Jotta PK-yritykset voisivat saavuttaa ja säilyttää strategisen kumppanin aseman kumppanuusohjelmassa, vaatii se aktiivista ja päivittäistä vuorovaikutusta kumppaneiden kesken. Erityisesti tiiviit henkilösuhteet oikeiden avainhenkilöiden kanssa ovat välttämättömyys. Läheiset kontaktit mahdollistavat sen, että PK-yritykset voivat ainakin osittain ohittaa kumppanuusohjelman byrokratian, mikä lisää luottamusta ja sitoutumista kumppanuussuhteessa sekä edistää kansainvälistä kasvua ja menestystä liiketoiminnassa.

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

A computationally efficient shear deformable beam element for large deformation multibody applications

In this paper, a new two-dimensional shear deformable beam element based on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation is proposed. The nonlinear elastic forces of the beam element are obtained using a continuum mechanics approach without employing a local element coordinate system. In this study, linear polynomials are used to interpolate both the transverse and longitudinal components of the displacement. This is different from other absolute nodal-coordinate-based beam elements where cubic polynomials are used in the longitudinal direction. The accompanying defects of the phenomenon known as shear locking are avoided through the adoption of selective integration within the numerical integration method. The proposed element is verified using several numerical examples, and the results are compared to analytical solutions and the results for an existing shear deformable beam element. It is shown that by using the proposed element, accurate linear and nonlinear static deformations, as well as realistic dynamic behavior, can be achieved with a smaller computational effort than by using existing shear deformable two-dimensional beam elements.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.