Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Crisis management and risk communication: Why the food industry must get it right

There is public unease about food-related issues including food additives, food poisoning bacteria and GM ingredients. The public wants evidence of no risks, but all regulators can ever offer is no evidence of risk or evidence of a very small risk. The situation is complex because experts and non-experts can perceive the same risk in vastly different ways. The way in which the food industry manages crises and communicates risks will determine the public acceptance and success of new technologies such as GM foods and nanomaterials. There is a need for the food industry (including regulators and scientific experts) to sharpen up their risk communication skills to ensure that technical innovations are accepted by consumers, and crises such as food recalls do not undermine the public's confidence in the food industry. The AIFST has a key role to play in driving the risk communication process and allaying public unease about food-related issues.

The engineering link project: Learning about engineering by becoming an engineer

There has been a greater emphasis over the past few years of encouraging high school students to take up engineering as a career. This is due to a greater need for engineers in society, particularly in areas that are suffering a skills shortage. Both the engineering profession and universities across Australia have moved to address this shortage, with a proliferation of engineering outreach activities and programs the result. The Engineering Link Group (TELG) began the Engineering Link Project (ELP) over a decade ago with a focus on helping motivated high school students make an informed choice about engineering as a career. It also aimed at encouraging more high school students to study maths and science at high school. From the start the ELP was designed so that the students became engineers, rather than just hear from or watch engineers. Real working engineers pose problems to groups of students for them solve over the course of a day. In this way, students experience what it is like to be an engineer. It has been found that the project does help high school students make more informed career choices about engineering. The project also gave the students real life and practical reasons for studying sciences and mathematics at high school. © 2005, Australasian Association for Engineering Education

Por causa do Reino dos Céus Uma leitura de gênero de Mateus 19,1-12 e 5,27-32

Há no Evangelho de Mateus material suficiente para se chegar ao discipulado de iguais porque seu conteúdo reflete uma prática igualitária de Jesus em relação às mulheres. Nesta tese tal prática pode ser verificada através da investigação de duas perícopes nas quais Jesus advoga a causa das mulheres discutindo o direito masculino do divórcio e o adultério: 19,1-12 e 5,27-32. No debate sobre a justa causa para se despedir a mulher, Jesus declara que a volta à criação original não mais concede tal prerrogativa aos homens. Essa discussão ocorre em terreno legal e isso se evidencia pelo termo aitia, cujo significado demonstra que na demanda do divórcio a lei concede ao homem o benefício de encontrar um motivo para acusação. Jesus, por sua vez, declara que pela sua lei todo motivo e acusação contra a mulher se transforma em motivo e acusação contra o próprio homem diante de Deus. O silêncio dos fariseus comprova que os argumentos de Jesus são irrefutáveis, mas o protesto dos seus discípulos revela que não lhes agrada a igualdade social entre os sexos. A resposta final e definitiva de Jesus encontra-se em Mt 19,10 onde pelo uso da metáfora eunuco ele encerra o debate dizendo que somente podem aceitar a sua causa os que abraçarem a causa do Reino dos Céus. Os temas divórcio e adultério permitem estender a discussão para o matrimônio que é a relação social e legal que fundamenta tais práticas, e buscar na Antigüidade as leis e costumes que regiam a vida sexual das mulheres naquele tempo, considerando os ambientes mais relevantes em relação ao mundo bíblico: o mundo greco-romano e o oriente próximo no período entre os séculos IV a.C. e IV d.C. para que, através da pesquisa sobre matrimônio, divórcio, adultério, dote, repúdio e outras sanções relativas à vida sexual das mulheres, se possa chegar aos mecanismos culturais da educação capazes de levar as mulheres à cumplicidade ou à resistência aos seus papéis sociais. Essa pesquisa se encerra com uma apreciação da história da renúncia sexual nos contextos judaico e cristão para projetar o ambiente e o horizonte sócio-religioso que foram palcos da recepção e transmissão de Mt 5,27-32 e Mt 19,1-12, de modo a demonstrar que os argumentos misóginos que se tornaram inerentes à interpretação desses textos são o resultado de uma mentalidade sexista que não corresponde à crítica literária do evangelho.(AU)

Estratégias de enfrentamento utilizadas por praticantes de Artes Marciais

O presente estudo teve por objetivos, descrever as estratégias de enfrentamento utilizadas por praticantes de artes marciais; relacionar as estratégias de enfrentamento utilizadas por praticantes iniciantes em artes marciais com aquelas utilizadas por praticantes formados; e relacionar as estratégias de enfrentamento ao tempo de pratica das artes marciais. Participaram 94 sujeitos do sexo masculino, numa faixa etária de 15 até 56 anos, com nível de instrução médio, praticantes de: Kung Fu Chinês, Kung Fu Vietnamita (Qwan Ki Do), Taekwondo e Karatê, artes marciais de contato semelhantes tecnicamente. Foram distribuídos em dois grupos: Grupo 1 67 praticantes com tempo de pratica superior a 12 meses podendo ser ou não formados faixa-preta, ou seja, aqueles que tiveram experiência, treino e estudo necessários exigidos dentro de sua modalidade marcial e entre esses estão incluídos também os que se formaram e lecionam e o Grupo 2 - 27 praticantes chamados iniciantes, com tempo de prática compreendido até 12 meses. Utilizou-se a Escala de Modos de Enfrentamento de Problemas: EMEP e um Questionário. Os dados foram submetidos ao Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS), versão 15.0 para Windows, para analise estatística descritiva e r-Person. Os resultados indicaram que quanto ao uso de estratégias de enfrentamento utilizadas por estes praticantes de artes marciais não foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre os dois diferentes grupos. Numa compreensão conforme o ponto médio da escala pôde-se observar que as estratégias de enfrentamento focado no problema e busca de suporte social, apresentaram uma média de utilização (estável); isso significa que os sujeitos utilizam-nas dentro de um padrão adequado em ambos os grupos. É interessante também observar que com relação à estratégias focadas na emoção, estas estão entre as menores médias observadas. Isto significa que os sujeitos praticantes de artes marciais utilizam menos estas estratégias, denotando pouco mais de controle emocional em relação às outras estratégias. Outros aspectos interessantes, dizem respeito a um índice significativo, ou uma relação entre os anos de ensino e busca de suporte social entre os sujeitos do Grupo 1 (formados que lecionam). Pode-se entender que quanto mais tempo essas pessoas se dedicam ao ensino, mais estratégias de suporte social eles desenvolvem. De um ponto de vista lógico, pode-se dizer que essa convivência com alunos durante os anos que o sujeito leciona, também favorece um melhor contato social.

PERCEPÇÃO DE FATORES E SITUAÇÕES DE RISCO EM MOTORISTAS INFRATORES

O presente estudo teve como objetivo verificar a percepção de situações de acidentes de trânsito por motoristas infratores; levantar dados sócio-demográficos, fatores de riscos e fatores de proteção de motoristas infratores, como também verificou a percepção de invulnerabilidade destes motoristas infratores. A coleta de dados foi realizada através da aplicação de Escala de Percepção de Invulnerabilidade, questionário sócio-demográfico que visou caracterizar o condutor, e entrevista semi-estruturada com finalidade de conhecer as ações do condutor ao volante. A amostra foi realizada por acessibilidade. Foi adotado como critério de inclusão na amostra motoristas habilitados que acumularam mais de vinte pontos em seu prontuário da Carteira de habilitação. O estudo teve um total de 427 sujeitos, sendo 325 do gênero masculino e 102 do gênero feminino. As infrações mais cometidas foram as gravíssimas para os sujeitos habilitados entre 6 e 15 anos, independente do gênero. Em relação à Escala de Invulnerabilidade, identificou-se que a autopercepção positiva foi superior ao senso de proteção e a crença na invulnerabilidade dos sujeitos. Os sujeitos entrevistados têm em média 38 pontos no prontuário, mas consideram-se motoristas cautelosos, atentos, cuidadosos, preocupados com os outros e que procuram obedecer às leis. Verificou-se que o risco está associado com a idéia de perigo, causar danos a outras pessoas ou comprometer sua segurança. As situações de risco estão associadas ao volume excessivo de veículos, alta velocidade, não obediência às leis de trânsito, veículos mal conservados e falta de sinalização. A percepção de riscos tem muito mais a ver com a singularidade do indivíduo diante de algum evento do que com uma estimativa correta de probabilidades. Constatou-se que os níveis elevados de ameaça sempre apresentam estratégias cognitivas de minimização do risco e do seu impacto. Constatou-se que as infrações de trânsito que ocorrem têm a ver com o contexto social. Investigar sobre as possíveis variáveis psicológicas nesse contexto também é uma tarefa de grande amplitude. Os estudos realizados nessa área da psicologia de trânsito no Brasil podem dar mais um passo em direção à compreensão da complexa rede de relações envolvendo o homem, o trânsito e o ambiente.(AU)

GESTÃO DO CONHECIMENTO: UM ESTUDO SOBRE A RELAÇÃO ENTRE A LIDERANÇA TRANSFORMACIONAL, A CONVERSÃO DO CONHECIMENTO E A EFICÁCIA ORGANIZACIONAL

Este estudo teve como objetivo principal analisar a relação entre a Liderança Transformacional, a Conversão do Conhecimento e a Eficácia Organizacional. Foram considerados como pressupostos teóricos conceitos consolidados sobre os temas desta relação, além de recentes pesquisas já realizadas em outros países e contextos organizacionais. Com base nisto identificou-se potencial estudo de um modelo que relacionasse estes três conceitos. Para tal considera-se que as organizações que buscam atingir Vantagem Competitiva e incorporam a Knowledge-Based View possam conquistar diferenciação frente a seus concorrentes. Nesse contexto o conhecimento ganha maior destaque e papel protagonista nestas organizações. Dessa forma criar conhecimento através de seus colaboradores, passa a ser um dos desafios dessas organizações ao passo que sugere melhoria de seus indicadores Econômicos, Sociais, Sistêmicos e Políticos, o que se define por Eficácia Organizacional. Portanto os modos de conversão do conhecimento nas organizações, demonstram relevância, uma vez que se cria e se converte conhecimentos através da interação entre o conhecimento existente de seus colaboradores. Essa conversão do conhecimento ou modelo SECI possui quatro modos que são a Socialização, Externalização, Combinação e Internalização. Nessa perspectiva a liderança nas organizações apresenta-se como um elemento capaz de influenciar seus colaboradores, propiciando maior dinâmica ao modelo SECI de conversão do conhecimento. Se identifica então na liderança do tipo Transformacional, características que possam influenciar colaboradores e entende-se que esta relação entre a Liderança Transformacional e a Conversão do Conhecimento possa ter influência positiva nos indicadores da Eficácia Organizacional. Dessa forma esta pesquisa buscou analisar um modelo que explorasse essa relação entre a liderança do tipo Transformacional, a Conversão do Conhecimento (SECI) e a Eficácia Organizacional. Esta pesquisa teve o caráter quantitativo com coleta de dados através do método survey, obtendo um total de 230 respondentes válidos de diferentes organizações. O instrumento de coleta de dados foi composto por afirmativas relativas ao modelo de relação pesquisado com um total de 44 itens. O perfil de respondentes concentrou-se entre 30 e 39 anos de idade, com a predominância de organizações privadas e de departamentos de TI/Telecom, Docência e Recursos Humanos respectivamente. O tratamento dos dados foi através da Análise Fatorial Exploratória e Modelagem de Equações Estruturais via Partial Least Square Path Modeling (PLS-PM). Como resultado da análise desta pesquisa, as hipóteses puderam ser confirmadas, concluindo que a Liderança Transformacional apresenta influência positiva nos modos de Conversão do Conhecimento e que; a Conversão do Conhecimento influencia positivamente na Eficácia Organizacional. Ainda, concluiu-se que a percepção entre os respondentes não apresenta resultado diferente sobre o modelo desta pesquisa entre quem possui ou não função de liderança.

How earlobes can signify leadership potential

Evolutionary biologists have learned that people with greater “genetic fitness,” as manifested by a high degree of left-right body symmetry, are not just considered better looking but also tend to be healthier, more intelligent, and more dominant than others. They’re the classic alphas who rise to the top of rigidly hierarchical organizations such as the military. But our research shows that people with subtle asymmetries—for example, imbalances in ear or finger length—are often better “transformational” leaders, able to inspire followers to put self-interest aside for the good of the group. Furthermore, teams they lead outperform teams whose leaders have more-symmetrical bodies. These findings add a new twist to the debate about whether effective leaders are born or made. We believe it’s not asymmetry per se that positions people to be good transformational leaders. Instead, we argue, these individuals’ childhood responses to others’ perceptions shape them for success.

Who are you sleeping with? The construction of heteronormativity in stories about sleep in British newspapers

In popular British understanding the terms 'sleeping' or 'slept' are often used to mean sex, and (hetero)sex is seen as crucial to sustaining intimate relationships. This study of UK newspapers coverage shows that stories about sieep and sleeping arrangements can be seen to (re)produce heteronormativity through focusing on the (heterosexual) 'marital bed'. The 'marital bed' is constructed as both the physical and symbolic centre of successful heterosexual relationships. Moreover, the maintenance of this symbolic space is gendered with women given primary responsibility. The focus on the 'marital bed' helps to exclude non-heterosexuals from the idea of intimate relationships, by effectively silencing their experiences of sleep and sleeping arrangements. Normative ideas about male and female (hetero)sexualities are drawn on to undermine women's right to refuse sex within the martial bed. In addition, the term 'sleep-sex' is used to reconceptualise stories of rape, minimising the victim's experiences and absolve the perpetrator from full responsibility for the assault. By exploring these articles we can see both how the representation of the organisation of sleep is produced through heteronormativity, as well as how heteronormativity determines whose accounts of sleeping are prioritised. © Sociological Research Online.

Grammar in the curriculum for English: what next?

It is clear from several government reports and research papers published recently, that the curriculum for English in primary and secondary schools is about to change, yet again. After years of a bureaucratic stranglehold that has left even Ofsted report writers criticising the teaching of English, it seems as if the conditions are right for further revisions. One of the questions that inevitably arises when a curriculum for English is reviewed, relates to the place and purpose of the teaching of grammar. This paper outlines a possible curriculum for grammar across both primary and secondary phases, arguing that for the teaching of grammar to have any salience or purpose at all, it has to be integrated into the curriculum as a whole, and not just that of writing. A recontextualised curriculum for grammar of the kind proposed here, would teach pupils to become critically literate in ways which recognise diversity as well as unity, and with the aim of providing them with the means to critically analyse and appraise the culture in which they live.

Flow patterns, performance and scale-up of distillation trays

This work is concerned with the nature of liquid flow across industrial sieve trays operating in the spray, mixed, and the emulsified flow regimes. In order to overcome the practical difficulties of removing many samples from a commercial tray, the mass transfer process was investigated in an air water simulator column by heat transfer analogy. The temperature of the warm water was measured by many thermocouples as the water flowed across the single pass 1.2 m diameter sieve tray. The thermocouples were linked to a mini computer for the storage of the data. The temperature data were then transferred to a main frame computer to generate temperature profiles - analogous to concentration profiles. A comprehensive study of the existing tray efficiency models was carried out using computerised numerical solutions. The calculated results were compared with experimental results published by the Fractionation Research Incorporation (FRl) and the existing models did not show any agreement with the experimental results. Only the Porter and Lockett model showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results for cenain tray efficiency values. A rectangular active section tray was constructed and tested to establish the channelling effect and the result of its effect on circular tray designs. The developed flow patterns showed predominantly flat profiles and some indication of significant liquid flow through the central region of the tray. This comfirms that the rectangular tray configuration might not be a satisfactory solution for liquid maldistribution on sieve trays. For a typical industrial tray the flow of liquid as it crosses the tray from the inlet to the outlet weir could be affected by the mixing of liquid by the eddy, momentum and the weir shape in the axial or the transverse direction or both. Conventional U-shape profiles were developed when the operating conditions were such that the froth dispersion was in the mixed regime, with good liquid temperature distribution while in the spray regime. For the 12.5 mm hole diameter tray the constant temperature profiles were found to be in the axial direction while in the spray regime and in the transverse direction for the 4.5 mm hole tray. It was observed that the extent of the liquid stagnant zones at the sides of the tray depended on the tray hole diameter and was larger for the 4.5 mm hole tray. The liquid hold-up results show a high liquid hold-up at the areas of the tray with low liquid temperatures, this supports the doubts about the assumptions of constant point efficiency across an operating tray. Liquid flow over the outlet weir showed more liquid flow at the centre of the tray at high liquid loading with low liquid flow at both ends of the weir. The calculated results of the point and tray efficiency model showed a general increase in the calculated point and tray efficiencies with an increase in the weir loading, as the flow regime changed from the spray to the mixed regime the point and the tray efficiencies increased from approximately 30 to 80%.Through the mixed flow regime the efficiencies were found to remain fairly constant, and as the operating conditions were changed to maintain an emulsified flow regime there was a decrease in the resulting efficiencies. The results of the estimated coefficient of mixing for the small and large hole diameter trays show that the extent of liquid mixing on an operating tray generally increased with increasing capacity factor, but decreased with increasing weir loads. This demonstrates that above certain weir loads, the effect of eddy diffusion mechanism on the process of liquid mixing on an operating tray to be negligible.

Approximating differentiable relationships between delay embedded dynamical systems with radical basis functions

This thesis is about the study of relationships between experimental dynamical systems. The basic approach is to fit radial basis function maps between time delay embeddings of manifolds. We have shown that under certain conditions these maps are generically diffeomorphisms, and can be analysed to determine whether or not the manifolds in question are diffeomorphically related to each other. If not, a study of the distribution of errors may provide information about the lack of equivalence between the two. The method has applications wherever two or more sensors are used to measure a single system, or where a single sensor can respond on more than one time scale: their respective time series can be tested to determine whether or not they are coupled, and to what degree. One application which we have explored is the determination of a minimum embedding dimension for dynamical system reconstruction. In this special case the diffeomorphism in question is closely related to the predictor for the time series itself. Linear transformations of delay embedded manifolds can also be shown to have nonlinear inverses under the right conditions, and we have used radial basis functions to approximate these inverse maps in a variety of contexts. This method is particularly useful when the linear transformation corresponds to the delay embedding of a finite impulse response filtered time series. One application of fitting an inverse to this linear map is the detection of periodic orbits in chaotic attractors, using suitably tuned filters. This method has also been used to separate signals with known bandwidths from deterministic noise, by tuning a filter to stop the signal and then recovering the chaos with the nonlinear inverse. The method may have applications to the cancellation of noise generated by mechanical or electrical systems. In the course of this research a sophisticated piece of software has been developed. The program allows the construction of a hierarchy of delay embeddings from scalar and multi-valued time series. The embedded objects can be analysed graphically, and radial basis function maps can be fitted between them asynchronously, in parallel, on a multi-processor machine. In addition to a graphical user interface, the program can be driven by a batch mode command language, incorporating the concept of parallel and sequential instruction groups and enabling complex sequences of experiments to be performed in parallel in a resource-efficient manner.

British racial discourse: a study of political discourse about race and race-related matters at parliamentary and borough council levels

'British Racial Discourse' is a study of political discourse about race and race-related matters. The explanatory theory is adapted from current sociological studies of ideology with a heavy emphasis on the tradition developed from Marx and Engels's Feuerbach. The empirical data is drawn from the parliamentary debates on immigration and the Race Relations Bills, Conservative and Labour Party Conference Reports, and a set of interviews with Wolverhampton Borough councillors. Although the thesis has broader significance for British political discourse about race, it is particularly concerned with the responses of members of the two main political parties, rather than with the more overt and sensational racism of certain extreme Right-wing groups. Indeed, as the study progresses, it focuses more and more narrowly on the phenomenon of 'deracialised' discourse, and the details of the predominantly class-based justificatory systems of the Conservative and Labour Parties. Of particular interest are the argument forms (used in the debates on immigration and race relations) which manage to obscure the white electorate's responsibility for prejudice and discrimination. Such discoursive forms are of major significance for understanding British race relations, and their detailed examination provides an insight into the way in which 'ideological facades' are created and maintained.

The right time and place:strategic positioning for competitive manufacture

Increasingly in the UK, companies that have traditionally considered themselves as manufacturers are being advised to now see themselves as service providers and to reconsider whether to have any production capability. A key challenge is to translate this strategy into a selection of product and service-centred activities within the company's supply chain networks. Strategic positioning is concerned with the choice of business activities a company carries out itself, compared to those provided by suppliers, partners, distributors and even customers. In practice, strategic positioning is directly impacted by such decisions as outsourcing, off-shoring, partnering, technology innovation, acquisition and exploitation. If companies can better understand their strategic positioning, they can make more informed decisions about the adoption of alternative manufacturing and supply chain activities. Similarly, they are more likely to reject those that, like off-shoring, are currently en vogue but are highly likely to erode competitive edge and business success. Our research has developed a new concept we call 'competitive space' as a means of appreciating the strategic positioning of companies, along with a structured decision process for managing competitive space. Our ideas about competitive space, along with the decision process itself, have been developed and tested on a range of manufacturers. As more and more manufacturers are encouraged to move towards system integration and a serviceable business model, the challenge is to identify the appropriate strategic position for their organisations, or in other words, to identify their optimum competitive space for manufacture.