Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies of the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the discovery of the``eddy-compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing-length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO$_2$) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that, to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

Comparison of the portion size and frequency of consumption of 156 foods across seven European countries: insights from the Food4ME study

There are no standardised serving/portion sizes defined for foods consumed in the European Union (EU). Typical serving sizes can deviate significantly from the 100 g/100 ml labelling specification required by the EU legislation. Where the nutritional value of a portion is specified, the portion size is determined by the manufacturers. Our objective was to investigate the potential for standardising portion sizes for specific foods, thereby ensuring complementarity across countries. We compared portion size for 156 food items measured using a food frequency questionnaire across the seven countries participating in the Food4me study. The probability of consuming a food and the frequency of consumption differed across countries for 93% and 58% of the foods, respectively. However, the individual country mean portion size differed from the average across countries in only 16% of comparisons. Thus, although dietary choices vary markedly across countries, there is much less variation in portion sizes. Our results highlight the potential for standardisation of portion sizes on nutrition labels in the EU

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Reproducibility of the online Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire for estimating dietary intakes across Europe

Background: Accurate dietary assessment is key to understanding nutrition-related outcomes and is essential for estimating dietary change in nutrition-based interventions. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the pan-European reproducibility of the Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in assessing the habitual diet of adults. Methods: Participantsfromthe Food4Me study, a 6-mo,Internet-based, randomizedcontrolled trial of personalized nutrition conducted in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Greece, and Poland were included. Screening and baseline data (both collected before commencement of the intervention) were used in the present analyses, and participants were includedonly iftheycompleted FFQs at screeningand at baselinewithin a 1-mo timeframebeforethe commencement oftheintervention. Sociodemographic (e.g., sex andcountry) andlifestyle[e.g.,bodymass index(BMI,inkg/m2)and physical activity] characteristics were collected. Linear regression, correlation coefficients, concordance (percentage) in quartile classification, and Bland-Altman plots for daily intakes were used to assess reproducibility. Results: In total, 567 participants (59% female), with a mean 6 SD age of 38.7 6 13.4 y and BMI of 25.4 6 4.8, completed bothFFQswithin 1 mo(mean 6 SD: 19.26 6.2d).Exact plus adjacent classification oftotal energy intakeinparticipants was highest in Ireland (94%) and lowest in Poland (81%). Spearman correlation coefficients (r) in total energy intake between FFQs ranged from 0.50 for obese participants to 0.68 and 0.60 in normal-weight and overweight participants, respectively. Bland-Altman plots showed a mean difference between FFQs of 210 kcal/d, with the agreement deteriorating as energy intakes increased. There was little variation in reproducibility of total energy intakes between sex and age groups. Conclusions: The online Food4Me FFQ was shown to be reproducible across 7 European countries when administered within a 1-mo period to a large number of participants. The results support the utility of the online Food4Me FFQ as a reproducible tool across multiple European populations. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530139.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Effects of dense code-switching on executive control

Bilingualism is reported to re-structure executive control networks, but it remains unknown which aspects of the bilingual experience cause this modulation. This study explores the impact of three code-switching types on executive functions: (1) alternation of languages, (2) insertion of lexicon of one language into grammar of another, (3) dense code-switching with co-activation of lexicon and grammar. Current models hypothesise that they challenge different aspects of the executive system because they vary in the extent and scope of language separation. Two groups of German-English bilinguals differing in dense code-switching frequency participated in a flanker task under conditions varying in degree of trial-mixing and resulting demands to conflict-monitoring. Bilinguals engaging in more dense code-switching showed inhibitory advantages in the condition requiring most conflict-monitoring. Moreover, dense code-switching frequency correlated positively with monitoring skills. This suggests that the management of co-activated languages during dense code-switching engages conflict-monitoring and that the consolidation processes taking place within co-activated linguistic systems involve local inhibition. Code-switching types requiring greater degrees of language separation may involve more global forms of inhibition. This study shows that dense code-switching is a key experience shaping bilinguals’ executive functioning and highlights the importance of controlling for participants’ code-switching habits in bilingualism research.

A Prospective Follow-up Study of 44 Mandibular Immediately Loaded Implants Using Resonance Frequency Analysis: Preliminary 1-Year Results

Purpose: This clinical study aimed to evaluate initial, 4-months, and 1-year stability of immediately loaded dental implants inserted according to a protocol of lower rehabilitation with prefabricated bars. Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 11 edentulous patients. In each patient, 4 interforaminal implants were inserted. Immediately after implant installation, resonance frequency analysis (RFA) for each fixation was registered as well as after 4 months and 1 year with the prosthetic bar removed as it is a screwed system. Results: The clinical implant survival rate was 100%. The RFA showed an increase in stability after 4 months from 64.09 +/- 648 to 64.31 +/- 4.96 and I year, 67.11 +/- 4.37. The analysis of variance showed a statistically significant result (P = 0.015) among implant stability quotient values for the different periods evaluated. Tukey test results showed statistically significant differences between 1-year results and the initial periods but there was no statistically significant difference between initial and 4-month results (P > 0.05). Conclusion: These preliminary 1-year results indicate that immediate loading of mandibular dental implants using the studied prefabricated bars protocol is a reliable treatment as it is in accordance with the results described in the literature for other similar techniques. (Implant Dent 2009; 18:530-538)

Accuracy of the iPex multi-frequency electronic apex locator in primary molars: an ex vivo study

P>Aim To evaluate ex vivo the accuracy of the iPex multi-frequency electronic apex locator (NSK Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) for working length determination in primary molar teeth. Methodology One calibrated examiner determined the working length in 20 primary molar teeth (total of 33 root canals). Working length was measured both visually, with the placement of a K-file 1 mm short of the apical foramen or the most coronal limit of root resorption, and electronically using the electronic apex locator iPex, according to the manufacturers` instructions. Data were analysed statistically using the intraclass correlation (ICC) test. Results Comparison of the actual and the electronic measurements revealed high correlation (ICC = 0.99) between the methods, regardless of the presence or absence of physiological root resorption. Conclusions In this laboratory study, the iPex accurately identified the apical foramen or the apical opening location for working length measurement in primary molar teeth.

Performance of the Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire Used in the Brazilian Center of the Prospective Study Natural History of Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men: The HIM Study

The Natural History of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection in Men: The HIM Study is a prospective multi-center cohort study that, among other factors, analyzes participants` diet. A parallel cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of the quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) used in the Brazilian center from the HIM Study. For this, a convenience subsample of 98 men aged 18 to 70 years from the HIM Study in Brazil answered three 54-item QFFQ and three 24-hour recall interviews, with 6-month intervals between them (data collection January to September 2007). A Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the difference between instruments was dependent on the magnitude of the intake for energy and most nutrients included in the validity analysis, with the exception of carbohydrates, fiber, polyunsaturated fat, vitamin C, and vitamin E. The correlation between the QFFQ and the 24-hour recall for the deattenuated and energy-adjusted data ranged from 0.05 (total fat) to 0.57 (calcium). For the energy and nutrients consumption included in the validity analysis, 33.5% of participants on average were correctly classified into quartiles, and the average value of 0.26 for weighted kappa shows a reasonable agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficients for all nutrients were greater than 0.40 in the reproducibility analysis. The QFFQ demonstrated good reproducibility and acceptable validity. The results support the use of this instrument in the HIM Study. J Am Diet Assoc. 2011;111:1045-1051.

Validation of a food frequency questionnaire for women with osteoporosis

The importance of nutrient intakes in osteoporosis prevention in treatment is widely recognized. The objective of the present study was to develop and validate a FFQ for women with osteoporosis. The questionnaire was composed of 60 items, separated into 10 groups. The relative validation was accomplished through comparison of the 3-Day Food Record (3DR) with the FFQ. The 3DR was applied to 30 elderly women with confirmed osteoporosis, and after 45 days the FFQ was administrated. Statistical analysis comprised the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Student T test and Pearson correlation coefficient. The agreement between two methods was evaluated by the frequency of similar classification into quartiles, and by the Bland-Altman method. No significant differences between methods were observed for the mean evaluated nutrients, except for carbohydrate and magnesium. Pearson correlation coefficients were positive and statistically significant for all nutrients. The overall proportion of subjects classified in the same quartile by the two methods was on average 50.01% and in the opposite quartile 0.47%. For calcium intake, only 3% of subjects were classified in opposite extreme quartiles by the two methods. The Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that the differences obtained by the two methods in each subject were well distributed around the mean of the difference, and the disagreement increases as the mean intake increases. These results indicates that the FFQ for elderly women with osteoporosis presented here is highly acceptable and is an accurate method that can be used in large-scale or clinical studies for evaluation of nutrient intakes in a similar population.

Time-frequency analysis of acoustic noise produced by breaking of crisp biscuits

This paper demonstrates by means of joint time-frequency analysis that the acoustic noise produced by the breaking of biscuits is dependent on relative humidity and water activity. It also shows that the time-frequency coefficients calculated using the adaptive Gabor transformation algorithm is dependent on the period of time a biscuit is exposed to humidity. This is a new methodology that can be used to assess the crispness of crisp foods. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of agitation on the performance of an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor in the treatment of dairy effluents

Agitation rate is an important parameter in the operation of Anaerobic Sequencing Biofilm Batch Reactors (ASBBRs), and a proper agitation rate guarantees good mixing, improves mass transfer, and enhances the solubility of the particulate organic matter. Dairy effluents have a high amount of particulate organic matter, and their anaerobic digestion presents inhibitory intermediates (e. g., long-chain fatty acids). The importance of studying agitation in such batch systems is clear. The present study aimed to evaluate how agitation frequency influences the anaerobic treatment of dairy effluents. The ASBBR was fed with wastewater from milk pasteurisation process and cheese manufacture with no whey segregation. The organic matter concentration, measured as chemical oxygen demand (COD), was maintained at approximately 8,000 mg/L. The reactor was operated with four agitation frequencies: 500 rpm, 350 rpm, 200 rpm, and no agitation. In terms of COD removal efficiency, similar results were observed for 500 rpm and 350 rpm (around 90%) and for 200 rpm and no agitation (around 80%). Increasing the system`s agitation thus not only improved the global efficiency of organic matter removal but also influenced volatile acid production and consumption and clearly modified this balance in each experimental condition.

MODELLING OF HIGH-PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM IN SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE FOOD ENGINEERING FIELD USING THE PENG-ROBINSON EQUATION OF STATE WITH TWO DIFFERENT MIXING RULES

In this work, thermodynamic models for fitting the phase equilibrium of binary systems were applied, aiming to predict the high pressure phase equilibrium of multicomponent systems of interest in the food engineering field, comparing the results generated by the models with new experimental data and with those from the literature. Two mixing rules were used with the Peng-Robinson equation of state, one with the mixing rule of van der Waals and the other with the composition-dependent mixing rule of Mathias et al. The systems chosen are of fundamental importance in food industries, such as the binary systems CO(2)-limonene, CO(2)-citral and CO(2)-linalool, and the ternary systems CO(2)-Limonene-Citral and CO(2)-Limonene-Linalool, where high pressure phase equilibrium knowledge is important to extract and fractionate citrus fruit essential oils. For the CO(2)-limonene system, some experimental data were also measured in this work. The results showed the high capability of the model using the composition-dependent mixing rule to model the phase equilibrium behavior of these systems.