Does the UK Local Finance Improvement Trust (Lift) Initiative Improve Risk Management in Public-Private Procurement?

The UK government introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and, latterly, the Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) in an attempt to improve public service provision. As a variant of PFI, LIFT seeks to create a framework for the effective provision of primary care facilities. Like conventional PFI procurement, LIFT projects involve long-term contracts, complex multi-party interactions and thus create various risks to public sector clients. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of LIFT with a focus on how this approach facilitates or impedes risk management from the public sector client perspective. Our paper concludes that LIFT has a potential for creating additional problems, including the further reduction of public sector control, conflicts of interest, the inappropriate use of enabling funds, and higher than market rental costs affecting the uptake of space in the buildings by local health care providers. However, there is also evidence that LIFT has facilitated new investment and that Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have themselves started addressing some of the weaknesses of this procurement format through the bundling of projects and other forms of regional co-operation.

Economic Ideas and the Political Construction of the Financial Crash of 2008

This article is a short introduction to a special section on economic ideas and the political construction of the financial crash. It begins by explaining why economic ideas and the politics of appeals to certain ideas are so integral to the historical significance of the crash of 2008 and the question of whether it can be considered a crash at all. The first section covers the literature on ideas and economic crisis. The second section highlights that the contribution of the special section is to engage in a stock taking exercise of the empirical and conceptual patterns concerning the politics of ideational change underway in the areas of: comparative fiscal policy; monetary policy and Euro zone debt management; capital controls; and financial and securities market regulation and standard setting. The final section outlines the structure of this special section and content of the individual articles.

Monitoring Bridge Dynamic Behaviour using an Instrumented Two Axle Vehicle

Highway structures such as bridges are subject to continuous degradation primarily due to ageing, loading and environmental factors. A rational transport policy must monitor and provide adequate maintenance to this infrastructure to guarantee the required levels of transport service and safety. Increasingly in recent years, bridges are being instrumented and monitored on an ongoing basis due to the implementation of Bridge Management Systems. This is very effective and provides a high level of protection to the public and early warning if the bridge becomes unsafe. However, the process can be expensive and time consuming, requiring the installation of sensors and data acquisition electronics on the bridge. This paper investigates the use of an instrumented 2-axle vehicle fitted with accelerometers to monitor the dynamic behaviour of a bridge network in a simple and cost-effective manner. A simplified half car-beam interaction model is used to simulate the passage of a vehicle over a bridge. This investigation involves the frequency domain analysis of the axle accelerations as the vehicle crosses the bridge. The spectrum of the acceleration record contains noise, vehicle, bridge and road frequency components. Therefore, the bridge dynamic behaviour is monitored in simulations for both smooth and rough road surfaces. The vehicle mass and axle spacing are varied in simulations along with bridge structural damping in order to analyse the sensitivity of the vehicle accelerations to a change in bridge properties. These vehicle accelerations can be obtained for different periods of time and serve as a useful tool to monitor the variation of bridge frequency and damping with time.

Research-informed design, management and maintenance of infrastructure slopes: development of a multi-scalar approach

The UK’s transport infrastructure is one of the most heavily used in the world. The performance of these networks is critically dependent on the performance of cutting and embankment slopes which make up £20B of the £60B asset value of major highway infrastructure alone. The rail network in particular is also one of the oldest in the world: many of these slopes are suffering high incidents of instability (increasing with time). This paper describes the development of a fundamental understanding of earthwork material and system behaviour, through the systematic integration of research across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatially these range from microscopic studies of soil fabric, through elemental materials behaviour to whole slope modelling and monitoring and scaling up to transport networks. Temporally, historical and current weather event sequences are being used to understand and model soil deterioration processes, and climate change scenarios to examine their potential effects on slope performance in futures up to and including the 2080s. The outputs of this research are being mapped onto the different spatial and temporal scales of infrastructure slope asset management to inform the design of new slopes through to changing the way in which investment is made into aging assets. The aim ultimately is to help create a more reliable, cost effective, safer and more resilient transport system.

The welfare implications of large litter size in the domestic pig II:Management factors

Increasing litter size has long been a goal of pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) breeders and producers in many countries. Whilst this has economic and environmental benefits for the pig industry, there are also implications for pig welfare. Certain management interventions are used when litter size routinely exceeds the ability of individual sows to successfully rear all the piglets (ie viable piglets outnumber functional teats). Such interventions include: tooth reduction; split suckling; cross-fostering; use of nurse sow systems and early weaning, including split weaning; and use of artificial rearing systems. These practices raise welfare questions for both the piglets and sow and are described and discussed in this review. In addition, possible management approaches which might mitigate health and welfare issues associated with large litters are identified. These include early intervention to provide increased care for vulnerable neonates and improvements to farrowing accommodation to mitigate negative effects, particularly for nurse sows. An important concept is that management at all stages of the reproductive cycle, not simply in the farrowing accommodation, can impact on piglet outcomes. For example, poor stockhandling at earlier stages of the reproductive cycle can create fearful animals with increased likelihood of showing poor maternal behaviour. Benefits of good sow and litter management, including positive human-animal relationships, are discussed. Such practices apply to all production situations, not just those involving large litters. However, given that interventions for large litters involve increased handling of piglets and increased interaction with sows, there are likely to be even greater benefits for management of hyper-prolific herds. © 2013 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare.

Acceleration-as-a-Service: Exploiting Virtualised GPUs for a Financial Application

How can GPU acceleration be obtained as a service in a cluster? This question has become increasingly significant due to the inefficiency of installing GPUs on all nodes of a cluster. The research reported in this paper is motivated to address the above question by employing rCUDA (remote CUDA), a framework that facilitates Acceleration-as-a-Service (AaaS), such that the nodes of a cluster can request the acceleration of a set of remote GPUs on demand. The rCUDA framework exploits virtualisation and ensures that multiple nodes can share the same GPU. In this paper we test the feasibility of the rCUDA framework on a real-world application employed in the financial risk industry that can benefit from AaaS in the production setting. The results confirm the feasibility of rCUDA and highlight that rCUDA achieves similar performance compared to CUDA, provides consistent results, and more importantly, allows for a single application to benefit from all the GPUs available in the cluster without loosing efficiency.

Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Flexible management of bandwidth and redundancy in fieldbuses

Os sistemas distribuídos embarcados (Distributed Embedded Systems – DES) têm sido usados ao longo dos últimos anos em muitos domínios de aplicação, da robótica, ao controlo de processos industriais passando pela aviónica e pelas aplicações veiculares, esperando-se que esta tendência continue nos próximos anos. A confiança no funcionamento é uma propriedade importante nestes domínios de aplicação, visto que os serviços têm de ser executados em tempo útil e de forma previsível, caso contrário, podem ocorrer danos económicos ou a vida de seres humanos poderá ser posta em causa. Na fase de projecto destes sistemas é impossível prever todos os cenários de falhas devido ao não determinismo do ambiente envolvente, sendo necessária a inclusão de mecanismos de tolerância a falhas. Adicionalmente, algumas destas aplicações requerem muita largura de banda, que também poderá ser usada para a evolução dos sistemas, adicionandolhes novas funcionalidades. A flexibilidade de um sistema é uma propriedade importante, pois permite a sua adaptação às condições e requisitos envolventes, contribuindo também para a simplicidade de manutenção e reparação. Adicionalmente, nos sistemas embarcados, a flexibilidade também é importante por potenciar uma melhor utilização dos, muitas vezes escassos, recursos existentes. Uma forma evidente de aumentar a largura de banda e a tolerância a falhas dos sistemas embarcados distribuídos é a replicação dos barramentos do sistema. Algumas soluções existentes, quer comerciais quer académicas, propõem a replicação dos barramentos para aumento da largura de banda ou para aumento da tolerância a falhas. No entanto e quase invariavelmente, o propósito é apenas um, sendo raras as soluções que disponibilizam uma maior largura de banda e um aumento da tolerância a falhas. Um destes raros exemplos é o FlexRay, com a limitação de apenas ser permitido o uso de dois barramentos. Esta tese apresentada e discute uma proposta para usar a replicação de barramentos de uma forma flexível com o objectivo duplo de aumentar a largura de banda e a tolerância a falhas. A flexibilidade dos protocolos propostos também permite a gestão dinâmica da topologia da rede, sendo o número de barramentos apenas limitado pelo hardware/software. As propostas desta tese foram validadas recorrendo ao barramento de campo CAN – Controller Area Network, escolhido devido à sua grande implantação no mercado. Mais especificamente, as soluções propostas foram implementadas e validadas usando um paradigma que combina flexibilidade com comunicações event-triggered e time-triggered: o FTT – Flexible Time- Triggered. No entanto, uma generalização para CAN nativo é também apresentada e discutida. A inclusão de mecanismos de replicação do barramento impõe a alteração dos antigos protocolos de replicação e substituição do nó mestre, bem como a definição de novos protocolos para esta finalidade. Este trabalho tira partido da arquitectura centralizada e da replicação do nó mestre para suportar de forma eficiente e flexível a replicação de barramentos. Em caso de ocorrência de uma falta num barramento (ou barramentos) que poderia provocar uma falha no sistema, os protocolos e componentes propostos nesta tese fazem com que o sistema reaja, mudando para um modo de funcionamento degradado. As mensagens que estavam a ser transmitidas nos barramentos onde ocorreu a falta são reencaminhadas para os outros barramentos. A replicação do nó mestre baseia-se numa estratégia líder-seguidores (leaderfollowers), onde o líder (leader) controla todo o sistema enquanto os seguidores (followers) servem como nós de reserva. Se um erro ocorrer no nó líder, um dos nós seguidores passará a controlar o sistema de uma forma transparente e mantendo as mesmas funcionalidades. As propostas desta tese foram também generalizadas para CAN nativo, tendo sido para tal propostos dois componentes adicionais. É, desta forma possível ter as mesmas capacidades de tolerância a falhas ao nível dos barramentos juntamente com a gestão dinâmica da topologia de rede. Todas as propostas desta tese foram implementadas e avaliadas. Uma implementação inicial, apenas com um barramento foi avaliada recorrendo a uma aplicação real, uma equipa de futebol robótico onde o protocolo FTT-CAN foi usado no controlo de movimento e da odometria. A avaliação do sistema com múltiplos barramentos foi feita numa plataforma de teste em laboratório. Para tal foi desenvolvido um sistema de injecção de faltas que permite impor faltas nos barramentos e nos nós mestre, e um sistema de medida de atrasos destinado a medir o tempo de resposta após a ocorrência de uma falta.

Management and Control of Water Supply Systems

The fast increase in the energy’s price has brought a growing concern about the highly expensive task of transporting water. By creating an hydraulic model of the Water Supply System’s (WSS) network and predicting its behaviour, it is possible to take advantage of the energy’s tariffs, reducing the total cost on pumping activities. This thesis was developed, in association with a technology transfer project called the E-Pumping. It focuses on finding a flexible supervision and control strategy, adaptable to any existent Water Supply System (WSS), as well as forecasting the water demand on a time period chosen by the end user, so that the pumping actions could be planned to an optimum schedule, that minimizes the total operational cost. The OPC protocol, associated to a MySQL database were used to develop a flexible tool of supervision and control, due to their adaptability to function with equipments from various manufacturers, being another integrated modular part of the E-Pumping project. Furthermore, in this thesis, through the study and performance tests of several statistical models based on time series, specifically applied to this problem, a forecasting tool adaptable to any station, and whose model parameters are automatically refreshed at runtime, was developed and added to the project as another module. Both the aforementioned modules were later integrated with an Graphical User Interface (GUI) and installed in a pilot application at the ADDP’s network. The implementation of this software on WSSs across the country will reduce the water supply companies’ running costs, improving their market competition and, ultimately, lowering the water price to the end costumer.

Coupling anchovy eggs and hydrodynamic model as an assessement tool for estuarine ecohydrological management

Nitrate and urban waste water directives have raised the need for a better understanding of coastal systems in European Union. The incorrect application of these directives can lead to important ecological or social penalties. In the paper this problem is addressed to Ria Formosa Coastal Lagoon. Ria Formosa hosts a Natural Park, important ports of the southern Portuguese coast and significant bivalve aquaculture activity. Four major urban waste water treatment plants discharging in the lagoon are considered in this study. Its treatment level must be selected, based on detailed information from a monitoring program and on a good knowledge of the processes determining the fate of the material discharged in the lagoon. In this paper the results of a monitoring program and simulations using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality / ecological model, MOHID, are used to characterise the system and to understand the processes in Ria Formosa. It is shown that the water residence time in most of the lagoon is quite low, of the order of days, but it can be larger in the upper parts of the channels where land generated water is discharged. The main supply of nutrients to the lagoon comes from the open sea rather than from the urban discharges. For this reason the characteristics and behaviour of the general lagoon contrasts with the behaviour of the upper reaches of the channels where the influence of the waste water treatment plants are high. In this system the bottom mineralization was found to be an important mechanism, and the inclusion of that process in the model was essential to obtain good results.

Aplicação de métodos de customer relationship management ao tratamento de dados para o desenvolvimento de negócios

Tese de Doutoramento, Gestão, na especialidade de Marketing, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

How do analysts deal with bad news? Going-concern opinions and analyst behaviour

Tese dout., University of Edinburg, 2008

Logistics management and costs of biomass fuel supply

Discusses part of a project conducted by the authors into the logistics planning and management and costs of supplying biomass fuels to biomass-fired power stations in the UK. Defines biomass fuels and the reasons for the growth in interest in their use for electricity generation. The activities and parties involved in the biomass fuel supply chain are discussed together with the management of the chain in order to achieve smooth and consistent flow of biomass fuel to power stations. Explains the approach used to modelling the delivered costs of biomass fuels for four types of biomass fuel included in the project: forest fuel, short rotation coppice, straw and miscanthus. Comments are given on the environmental impacts of the fuel supply chains. The results indicate that straw supply systems are capable of producing the lowest delivered costs of the four fuels studied. Short rotation coppice and miscanthus, two new energy crops, are likely to have the highest delivered costs at present. This is due to the cost of growing these fuels and the financial incentives required by farmers to persuade them to grow these crops. Logistics costs (i.e. transport, storage and handling) are shown to represent a significant proportion of total delivered cost in biomass supply. Careful supply chain planning and logistics management will be of central importance to the success of the biomass industry.

Governing through community? A comparative study of changing management practices in mixed tenure housing development

An important feature of UK housing policy has been the promotion of consortia between local authorities, private developers and housing associations in order to develop mixed tenure estates to meet a wide range of housing needs. Central to this approach has been a focus on the management of neighbourhoods, based on the assumption that high densities and the inter-mixing of tenure exacerbates the potential for incivility and anti-social behaviour and exerts a disproportionate impact on residents' quality of life. Landlord strategies are therefore based on a need to address such issues at an early stage in the development. In some cases community-based, third sector organisations are established in order to manage community assets and to provide a community development service to residents. In others, a common response is to appoint caretakers and wardens to tackle social and environmental problems before they escalate and undermine residents’ quality of life. A number of innovative developments have promoted such neighbourhood governance approaches to housing practice by applying community development methods to address potential management problems. In the process, there is an increasing trend towards strategies that shape behaviour, govern ethical conduct, promote aesthetic standards and determine resident and landlord expectations. These processes can be related to the wider concept of governmentality whereby residents are encouraged to become actively engaged in managing their own environments, based on the assumption that this produces more cohesive, integrated communities and projects positive images. Evidence is emerging from a number of countries that increasingly integrated and mutually supportive roles and relationships between public, private and third sector agencies are transforming neighbourhood governance in similar ways. This paper will review the evidence for this trend towards community governance in mixed housing developments by drawing on a series of UK case studies prepared for two national agencies in 2007. It will review in particular the contractual arrangements with different tenures, identify codes and guidelines promoting 'good neighbour' behaviour and discuss the role of community development trusts and other neighbourhood organisations in providing facilities and services, designed to generate a well integrated community. The second part of the paper will review evidence from the USA and Australia to see how far there is a convergence in this respect in advanced economies. The paper will conclude by discussing the extent to which housing management practice is changing, particularly in areas of mixed development, whether there is a convergence in practice between different countries and how far these trends are supported by theories of governmentality.

Agent-Based Modeling of Deshopping Behaviour: A Single Shop Model with Multiple Deshoppers

Deshopping is rapidly turning into a modern day scourge for the retailers worldwide due to its prevalence and regularity. The presence of flexible return policies have made retail return management a real challenging issue for both the present and the future. In this study, we propose and develop a multi-agent simulation model for deshopper behavior in a single shop context. The background, theoretical underpinning, logical and computational model, experiment design and simulation results are reported and discussed in the paper.