Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe

European grassland-based livestock production systems are challenged to produce more milk and meat to meet increasing world demand and to achieve this by using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for coping with such requests. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil-plant-animal-atmosphere system and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume abundance of 30-50%. The resulting benefits are a reduced dependency on fossil energy and industrial N fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication due to bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an option for adapting to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and to climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research in order to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland-livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can only be expected that legumes will become more important in the future.

Interregional migration 'wage premia': the case of creative and science and technology graduates in the UK

We analyze the migration behavior of graduates from UK universities with a focus on the salary benefits they receive from the migration process. We focus on sequential interregional migration and specifically examine the case of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) and Creative subject graduates. Our analysis differs from previous studies in that it accounts explicitly for migrant selectivity through propensity score matching, and it also classifies graduates into different migration behavior categories. Graduates were classified according to their sequential migration behavior first from their pre-university domicile to university and then from university to first job post-graduation. Our results show that ‘repeat migration’, as expected, is associated with the highest wage premium (around 15%). Other migration behaviors are also advantageous although this varies across different types of graduates. Creative graduates, for instance, do not benefit much from migration behaviors other than repeat migration. STEM graduates, on the contrary, benefit from both late migration and staying in the university area to work.

Costing conservation: an expert appraisal of the pollinator habitat benefits of England’s entry level stewardship

Pollination services provided by insects play a key role in English crop production and wider ecology. Despite growing evidence of the negative effects of habitat loss on pollinator populations, limited policy support is available to reverse this pressure. One measure that may provide beneficial habitat to pollinators is England’s entry level stewardship agri-environment scheme. This study uses a novel expert survey to develop weights for a range of models which adjust the balance of Entry Level Stewardship options within the current area of spending. The annual costs of establishing and maintaining these option compositions were estimated at £59.3–£12.4 M above current expenditure. Although this produced substantial reduction in private cost:benefit ratios, the benefits of the scheme to pollinator habitat rose by 7–140 %; significantly increasing the public cost:benefit ratio. This study demonstrates that the scheme has significant untapped potential to provide good quality habitat for pollinators across England, even within existing expenditure. The findings should open debate on the costs and benefits of specific entry level stewardship management options and how these can be enhanced to benefit both participants and biodiversity more equitably.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe

European grassland-based livestock production systems face the challenge of producing more meat and milk to meet increasing world demands and to achieve this using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for achieving these objectives. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil–plant–animal–atmosphere system, and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume proportion of 30–50%. The resulting benefits include reduced dependence on fossil energy and industrial N-fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication, due to the presence of bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an adaptation option to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land-area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland–livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can be expected that forage legumes will become more important in the future.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

Distraction control processes in free recall: benefits and costs to performance

How is semantic memory influenced by individual differences under conditions of distraction? This question was addressed by observing how visual target words—drawn from a single category—were recalled whilst ignoring spoken distracter words that were either members of the same, or members of a different (single) category. Working memory capacity (WMC) was related to disruption only with synchronous, not asynchronous, presentation and distraction was greater when the words were presented synchronously. Subsequent experiments found greater negative priming of distracters amongst individuals with higher WMC but this may be dependent on targets and distracters being comparable category exemplars. With less dominant category members as distracters, target recall was impaired – relative to control – only amongst individuals with low WMC. The results highlight the role of cognitive control resources in target-distracter selection and the individual-specific cost implications of such cognitive control.

The extent to which potential benefits to EU farmers of adopting transgenic crops are reduced by cost of compliance with coexistence regulations

This article forecasts the extent to which the potential benefits of adopting transgenic crops may be reduced by costs of compliance with coexistence regulations applicable in various member states of the EU. A dynamic economic model is described and used to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios. The model simulates varying levels of pest, weed, and drought pressures, with associated management strategies regarding pesticide and herbicide application, and irrigation. We report on the initial use of the model to calculate the net reduction in gross margin attributable to coexistence costs for insect-resistant (IR) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize grown continuously or in a rotation, HT soya grown in a rotation, HT oilseed rape grown in a rotation, and HT sugarbeet grown in a rotation. Conclusions are drawn about conditions favoring inclusion of a transgenic crop in a crop rotation, having regard to farmers’ attitude toward risk.

Towards cost-sensitive adaptation: when is it worth updating your predictive model?

Our digital universe is rapidly expanding,more and more daily activities are digitally recorded, data arrives in streams, it needs to be analyzed in real time and may evolve over time. In the last decade many adaptive learning algorithms and prediction systems, which can automatically update themselves with the new incoming data, have been developed. The majority of those algorithms focus on improving the predictive performance and assume that model update is always desired as soon as possible and as frequently as possible. In this study we consider potential model update as an investment decision, which, as in the financial markets, should be taken only if a certain return on investment is expected. We introduce and motivate a new research problem for data streams ? cost-sensitive adaptation. We propose a reference framework for analyzing adaptation strategies in terms of costs and benefits. Our framework allows to characterize and decompose the costs of model updates, and to asses and interpret the gains in performance due to model adaptation for a given learning algorithm on a given prediction task. Our proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates how the framework can aid in analyzing and managing adaptation decisions in the chemical industry.

Bifidobacteria in milk products: An overview of physiological and biochemical properties, exopolysaccharide production, selection criteria of milk products and health benefits

Research and commercial interest in the genus Bifidobacterium have increased in the last decade due to their potential health benefits in probiotic functional foods, especially in dairy products. However, cultivation of bifidobacteria in milk is a difficult task compared with that of conventional starters because milk is not a good medium for growth of these nutritionally fastidious microorganisms. Therefore, suitable strains of Bifidobacterium for dairy products should be selected based on their safety and technological and functional properties. There are a number of milk products containing bifidobacteria in the world market and the demand for new products is increasing with the awareness of the potential health benefits of the consumption of products blended with bifidobacteria. Some strains of Bifidobacterium, which produce exopolysaccharide, have been isolated and characterised. This review will discuss the general characteristics of bifidobacteria, exopolysaccharide production, the selection criteria of bacterial strains for milk products, current applications of bifidobacteria in milk products, and their nutritional and beneficial health properties.

Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

Chronic consumption of flavanone-rich orange juice is associated with cognitive benefits: an 8-wk randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in healthy older adults

Background: Research indicates that chronic consumption of flavonoids is associated with cognitive benefits in adults with mild cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative disease, although, there has been no such studies in healthy older adults. Furthermore, the effects of commonly consumed orange juice flavanones on cognitive function remain unexplored. Objective: To investigate whether eight weeks of daily flavanone-rich orange juice consumption was beneficial for cognitive function in healthy older adults. Design: High flavanone (HF: 305mg) 100% orange juice and equicaloric low flavanone (LF: 37mg) orange flavored cordial (500ml) were consumed daily for eight weeks by thirty seven healthy older adults (mean age 67 years) according to a crossover, double blind, randomized design separated by a four week washout. Cognitive function, mood and blood pressure were assessed at baseline and follow up with standardized validated tests. Results: Global cognitive function was significantly better following eight week consumption of flavanone-rich juice relative to eight week consumption of the low flavanone control. No significant effects on mood or blood pressure were observed. Conclusions: Chronic daily consumption of flavanone-rich 100% orange juice over eight weeks is beneficial for cognitive function in healthy older adults. The potential for flavanone-rich foods and drinks to attenuate cognitive decline in ageing and the mechanisms which underlie these effects should be investigated.

A stated preference valuation of the non-market benefits of pollination services in the UK

Using a choice experiment survey this study examines the UK public's willingness to pay to conserve insect pollinators in relation to the levels of two pollination service benefits: maintaining local produce supplies and the aesthetic benefits of diverse wildflower assemblages. Willingness to pay was estimated using a Bayesian mixed logit with two contrasting controls for attribute non-attendance, exclusion and shrinkage. The results suggest that the UK public have an extremely strong preference to avoid a status quo scenario where pollinator populations and pollination services decline. Total willingness to pay was high and did not significantly vary between the two pollination service outputs, producing a conservative total of £379M over a sample of the tax-paying population of the UK, equivalent to £13.4 per UK taxpayer. Using a basic production function approach, the marginal value of pollination services to these attributes is also extrapolated. The study discusses the implications of these findings and directions for related future research into the non-market value of pollination and other ecosystem services.