The donor problem

Donors often rely on local intermediaries to deliver benefits to target beneficiaries. Each selected recipient observes if the intermediary under-delivers to them, so they serve as natural monitors. However, they may withhold complaints when feeling unentitled or grateful to the intermediary for selecting them. Furthermore, the intermediary may distort selection (e.g. by picking richer recipients who feel less entitled) to reduce complaints. We design an experimental game representing the donor s problem. In one treatment, the intermediary selects recipients. In the other, selection is random - as by an uninformed donor. In our data, random selection dominates delegation of the selection task to the intermediary. Selection distortions are similar, but intermediaries embezzle more when they have selection power and (correctly) expect fewer complaints.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region approach: Part I, the single-station case

We address the performance optimization problem in a single-stationmulticlass queueing network with changeover times by means of theachievable region approach. This approach seeks to obtainperformance bounds and scheduling policies from the solution of amathematical program over a relaxation of the system's performanceregion. Relaxed formulations (including linear, convex, nonconvexand positive semidefinite constraints) of this region are developedby formulating equilibrium relations satisfied by the system, withthe help of Palm calculus. Our contributions include: (1) newconstraints formulating equilibrium relations on server dynamics;(2) a flow conservation interpretation of the constraintspreviously derived by the potential function method; (3) newpositive semidefinite constraints; (4) new work decomposition lawsfor single-station multiclass queueing networks, which yield newconvex constraints; (5) a unified buffer occupancy method ofperformance analysis obtained from the constraints; (6) heuristicscheduling policies from the solution of the relaxations.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region method: Part II, the multi-station case

We address the problem of scheduling a multi-station multiclassqueueing network (MQNET) with server changeover times to minimizesteady-state mean job holding costs. We present new lower boundson the best achievable cost that emerge as the values ofmathematical programming problems (linear, semidefinite, andconvex) over relaxed formulations of the system's achievableperformance region. The constraints on achievable performancedefining these formulations are obtained by formulatingsystem's equilibrium relations. Our contributions include: (1) aflow conservation interpretation and closed formulae for theconstraints previously derived by the potential function method;(2) new work decomposition laws for MQNETs; (3) new constraints(linear, convex, and semidefinite) on the performance region offirst and second moments of queue lengths for MQNETs; (4) a fastbound for a MQNET with N customer classes computed in N steps; (5)two heuristic scheduling policies: a priority-index policy, anda policy extracted from the solution of a linear programmingrelaxation.

First nationwide study on driving under the influence of drugs in Switzerland.

In Switzerland, a two-tier system based on impairment by any psychoactive substances which affect the capacity to drive safely and zero tolerance for certain illicit drugs came into force on 1 January 2005. According to the new legislation, the offender is sanctioned if Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol THC is >or=1.5ng/ml or amphetamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), 3,4-methylenedioxyethylamphetamine (MDEA), cocaine, free morphine are >or=15ng/ml in whole blood (confidence interval+/-30%). For all other psychoactive substances, impairment must be proven in applying the so-called "three pillars expertise". At the same time the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for driving was lowered from 0.80 to 0.50g/kg. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prevalence of drugs in the first year after the introduction of the revision of the Swiss Traffic Law in the population of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of drugs (DUID). A database was developed to collect the data from all DUID cases submitted by the police or the Justice to the eight Swiss authorized laboratories between January and December 2005. Data collected were anonymous and included the age, gender, date and time of the event, the type of vehicle, the circumstances, the sampling time and the results of all the performed toxicological analyses. The focus was explicitly on DUID; cases of drivers who were suspected to be under the influence of ethanol only were not considered. The final study population included 4794 DUID offenders (4243 males, 543 females). The mean age of all drivers was 31+/-12 years (range 14-92 years). One or more psychoactive drugs were detected in 89% of all analyzed blood samples. In 11% (N=530) of the samples, neither alcohol nor drugs were present. The most frequently encountered drugs in whole blood were cannabinoids (48% of total number of cases), ethanol (35%), cocaine (25%), opiates (10%), amphetamines (7%), benzodiazepines (6%) and methadone (5%). Other medicinal drugs such as antidepressants and benzodiazepine-like were detected less frequently. Poly-drug use was prevalent but it may be underestimated because the laboratories do not always analyze all drugs in a blood sample. This first Swiss study points out that DUID is a serious problem on the roads in Switzerland. Further investigations will show if this situation has changed in the following years.

Exploiting fitness distance correlation of set covering problems

The set covering problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problemthat arises in applications ranging from crew scheduling in airlines todriver scheduling in public mass transport. In this paper we analyze searchspace characteristics of a widely used set of benchmark instances throughan analysis of the fitness-distance correlation. This analysis shows thatthere exist several classes of set covering instances that have a largelydifferent behavior. For instances with high fitness distance correlation,we propose new ways of generating core problems and analyze the performanceof algorithms exploiting these core problems.

Adaptive dynamics and the implementation problem with complete information

This paper studies the equilibrating process of several implementationmechanisms using naive adaptive dynamics. We show that the dynamics convergeand are stable, for the canonical mechanism of implementation in Nash equilibrium.In this way we cast some doubt on the criticism of ``complexity'' commonlyused against this mechanism. For mechanisms that use more refined equilibrium concepts,the dynamics converge but are not stable. Some papers in the literatureon implementation with refined equilibrium concepts have claimed that themechanisms they propose are ``simple'' and implement ``everything'' (incontrast with the canonical mechanism). The fact that some of these ``simple''mechanisms have unstable equilibria suggests that these statements shouldbe interpreted with some caution.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Iowa Drivers Manual, 2008-2009

The rules and regulations for operating a motored vehicles in Iowa.

You’re the COACH!: A Guide for Parents of New Drivers, June 23, 2008

This publication is a guide for parents and guardians of teenagers learning to drive. It should be used with the Iowa Driver’s Manual to aid you in instructing your new driver about how to safely and responsibly operate a motor vehicle. Since the task of driving is affected by changing conditions, this manual does not attempt to cover all situations that may arise. Under Iowa’s graduated driver licensing system young drivers must complete 20 hours of supervised drive time with their parents or guardians during the instruction permit stage and 10 hours during the intermediate license stage. Even though your teenager is taking or has completed driver education in school, there is a great deal of benefit to be obtained from you providing this additional practice time. Learning from your experience and under your guidance, your teenager will apply the rules of the road and more fully understand the risks involved in driving. This will require time and patience on your part, but the effort will result in you knowing that your teenager will be better able to cope with the demands of safe driving. In the back of this manual you will find several pages of diagrams. Use these diagrams to illustrate different driving situations for your teenage driver. Consider taking a notepad and pencil along during your practice sessions for additional drawings. This manual also contains a chart to log your supervised drive time. As your new driver advances through the graduated system you will be required to certify to an Iowa driver’s license examiner that you completed the minimum number of hours of supervised drive time. By becoming involved in the learning driver’s educational process, you are contributing to Iowa’s overall highway safety effort and helping your teenager develop safe driving habits that will last a lifetime.

The trail making test as a screening instrument for driving performance in older drivers; a translational research.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, primary care physicians determine whether or not older drivers are fit to drive. Little, however, is known regarding the effects of cognitive decline on driving performance and the means to detect it. This study explores to what extent the trail making test (TMT) can provide indications to clinicians about their older patients' on-road driving performance in the context of cognitive decline. METHODS: This translational study was nested within a cohort study and an exploratory psychophysics study. The target population of interest was constituted of older drivers in the absence of important cognitive or physical disorders. We therefore recruited and tested 404 home-dwelling drivers, aged 70 years or more and in possession of valid drivers' licenses, who volunteered to participate in a driving refresher course. Forty-five drivers also agreed to undergo further testing at our lab. On-road driving performance was evaluated by instructors during a 45 minute validated open-road circuit. Drivers were classified as either being excellent, good, moderate, or poor depending on their score on a standardized evaluation of on-road driving performance. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator curve for detecting poorly performing drivers was 0.668 (CI95% 0.558 to 0.778) for the TMT-A, and 0.662 (CI95% 0.542 to 0.783) for the TMT-B. TMT was related to contrast sensitivity, motion direction, orientation discrimination, working memory, verbal fluency, and literacy. Older patients with a TMT-A ≥ 54 seconds or a TMT-B ≥ 150 seconds have a threefold (CI95% 1.3 to 7.0) increased risk of performing poorly during the on-road evaluation. TMT had a sensitivity of 63.6%, a specificity of 64.9%, a positive predictive value of 9.5%, and a negative predictive value of 96.9%. CONCLUSION: In screening settings, the TMT would have clinicians uselessly consider driving cessation in nine drivers out of ten. Given the important negative impact this could have on older drivers, this study confirms the TMT not to be specific enough for clinicians to justify driving cessation without complementary investigations on driving behaviors.

Dispersal probability distributions and the wave-front speed problem

The speed and width of front solutions to reaction-dispersal models are analyzed both analytically and numerically. We perform our analysis for Laplace and Gaussian distribution kernels, both for delayed and nondelayed models. The results are discussed in terms of the characteristic parameters of the models