Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Clarification of the low-frequency modelling concept for marine craft

This article presents some remarks on models currently used in low speed manoeuvring and dynamic positioning problems. It discusses the relationship between the classical hydrodynamic equations for manoeuvring and seakeeping, and offers insight into the models used for simulation and control system design.

Inverse Correlation between Vitamin D and C-Reactive Protein in Newborns

Some studies suggested that adequate vitamin D might reduce inflammation in adults. However, little is known about this association in early life. We aimed to determine the relationship between cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in neonates. Cord blood levels of 25(OH)D and CRP were measured in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. Potential confounders including maternal sociodemographic characteristics, perinatal health status, lifestyle, and birth outcomes were prospectively collected. The average values of cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP were 39.43 nmol/L (SD = 20.35) and 6.71 mg/L (SD = 3.07), respectively. Stratified by 25(OH)D levels, per 10 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, CRP decreased by 1.42 mg/L (95% CI: 0.90, 1.95) among neonates with 25(OH)D <25.0 nmol/L, and decreased by 0.49 mg/L (95% CI: 0.17, 0.80) among neonates with 25(OH)D between 25.0 nmol/L and 49.9 nmol/L, after adjusting for potential confounders. However, no significant association between 25(OH)D and CRP was observed among neonates with 25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/L. Cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP levels showed a significant seasonal trend with lower 25(OH)D and higher CRP during winter-spring than summer-autumn. Stratified by season, a significant linear association of 25(OH)D with CRP was observed in neonates born in winter-spring (adjusted β = −0.11, 95% CI: −0.13, −0.10), but not summer-autumn. Among neonates born in winter-spring, neonates with 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L had higher risk of CRP ≥10 mg/L (adjusted OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 2.00, 4.69), compared to neonates with 25(OH)D ≥25 nmol/L. Neonates with vitamin D deficiency had higher risk of exposure to elevated inflammation at birth.

Modelling discard ogives from Irish demersal fisheries

Annual discard ogives were estimated using generalized additive models (GAMs) for four demersal fish species: whiting, haddock, megrim, and plaice. The analysis was based on data collected on board commercial vessels and at Irish fishing ports from 1995 to 2003. For all species the most important factors influencing annual discard ogives were fleet (combination of gear, fishing ground, and targeted species), mean length of the catch and year, and, for megrim, also minimum landing size. The length at which fish are discarded has increased since 2000 for haddock, whiting, and plaice. In contrast, discarded length has decreased for megrim, accompanying a reduction in minimum landing size in 2000.

Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and seasonal variability of the MODIS NDVI and EVI images

Australian researchers have been developing robust yield estimation models, based mainly on the crop growth response to water availability during the crop season. However, knowledge of spatial distribution of yields within and across the production regions can be improved by the use of remote sensing techniques. Images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, available since 1999, have the potential to contribute to crop yield estimation. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between winter crop yields and the spectral information available in MODIS vegetation index images at the shire level. The study was carried out in the Jondaryan and Pittsworth shires, Queensland , Australia . Five years (2000 to 2004) of 250m resolution, 16-day composite of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) images were used during the winter crop season (April to November). Seasonal variability of the profiles of the vegetation index images for each crop season using different regions of interest (cropping mask) were displayed and analysed. Correlation analysis between wheat and barley yield data and MODIS image values were also conducted. The results showed high seasonal variability in the NDVI and EVI profiles, and the EVI values were consistently lower than those of the NDVI. The highest image values were observed in 2003 (in contrast to 2004), and were associated with rainfall amount and distribution. The seasonal variability of the profiles was similar in both shires, with minimum values in June and maximum values at the end of August. NDVI and EVI images showed sensitivity to seasonal variability of the vegetation and exhibited good association (e.g. r = 0.84, r = 0.77) with winter crop yields.

Modelling Leaf Production and Crop Development in Maize (Zea mays L.) After Tassel Initiation Under Diverse Conditions of Temperature and Photoperiod

Prediction of the initiation, appearance and emergence of leaves is critically important to the success of simulation models of crop canopy development and some aspects of crop ontogeny. Data on leaf number and crop ontogeny were collected on five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and genetic background grown under natural and extended photoperiods, and planted on seven sowing dates from October 1993 to March 1994 at Gatton, South-east Queensland. The same temperature coefficients were established for crop ontogeny before silking, and the rates of leaf initiation, leaf tip appearance and full leaf expansion, the base, optimum and maximum temperatures for each being 8, 34 and 40 degrees C. After silking, the base temperature for ontogeny was 0 degrees C, but the optimum and maximum temperatures remained unchanged. The rates of leaf initiation, appearance of leaf tips and full leaf expansion varied in a relatively narrow range across sowing times and photoperiod treatments, with average values of 0.040 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, 0.021 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, and 0.019 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, respectively. The relationships developed in this study provided satisfactory predictions of leaf number and crop ontogeny (tassel initiation to silking, emergence to silking and silking to physiological maturity) when assessed using independent data from Gatton (South eastern Queensland), Katherine and Douglas Daly (Northern Territory), Walkamin (North Queensland) and Kununurra (Western Australia).

The role of comfort in child restraint use practices

Suboptimal restraint use, particularly the incorrect use of restraints, is a significant and widespread problem among child vehicle occupants, and increases the risk of injury. Previous research has identified comfort as a potential factor influencing suboptimal restraint use. Both the real comfort experienced by the child and the parent’s perception of the child’s comfort are reported to influence the optimal use of restraints. Problems with real comfort may lead the child to misuse the restraint in their attempt to achieve better comfort whilst parent-perceived discomfort has been reported as a driver for premature graduation and inappropriate restraint choice. However, this work has largely been qualitative. There has been no research that objectively studies either the association between real and parent-perceived comfort, or any association between comfort and suboptimal restraint use. One barrier to such studies is the absence of validated tools for quantifying real comfort in children. We aimed to develop methods to examine both real and parent-perceived comfort and examine their effects on suboptimal restraint use. We conducted online parent surveys (n=470) to explore what drives parental perceptions of their child’s comfort in restraint systems (study 1) and used data from field observation studies (n=497) to examine parent-perceived comfort and its relationship with observed restraint use (study 2). We developed methods to measure comfort in children in a laboratory setting (n=14) using video analysis to estimate a Discomfort Avoidance Behaviour (DAB) score, pressure mapping and adapted survey tools to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions (study 3). The DAB rate was then used to compare an integrated booster with an add-on booster (study 4) Preliminary analysis of our recent online survey of Australian parents (study 1) indicates that 23% of parents report comfort as a consideration when making a decision to change restraints. Logistic regression modelling of data collected during the field observation study (study 2) revealed that parent-perceived discomfort was not significantly associated with premature graduation. Contrary to expectation, children of parents who reported that their child was comfortable were almost twice as likely to have been incorrectly restrained (p<0.01, 95% CI 1.24 - 2.77).In the laboratory study (study 3) we found our adapted survey tools did not provide a reliable measurement of real comfort among children. However our DAB score was able to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions and correlated well with pressure mapping. Preliminary results from the laboratory comparison study (study 4) indicate a positive correlation between DAB rate and use errors. In experiments conducted to date, we have seen a significantly higher DAB rate in the integrated booster compared to the add-on booster (p < 0.01). However, this needs to be confirmed in a naturalistic setting and in further experiments that take length of time under observation into account. Our results suggest that while some parents report concern about their child’s comfort, parent-reported comfort levels were not associated with restraint choice. If comfort is important for optimal restraint use, it is likely to be the real comfort of the child rather than that reported by the parent. The method we have developed for studying real comfort can be used in naturalistic studies involving child occupants to further understand this relationship. This work will be of interest to vehicle and child restraint manufacturers interested in improving restraint design for young occupants as well as researchers and other stakeholders interested in reducing the incidence of restraint misuse among children.

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: An integrated modelling approach in maize.

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

Inter-lamellar shear resistance confers compressive stiffness in the intervertebral disc: An image-based modelling study on the bovine caudal disc

The intervertebral disc withstands large compressive loads (up to nine times bodyweight in humans) while providing flexibility to the spinal column. At a microstructural level, the outer sheath of the disc (the annulus fibrosus) comprises 12–20 annular layers of alternately crisscrossed collagen fibres embedded in a soft ground matrix. The centre of the disc (the nucleus pulposus) consists of a hydrated gel rich in proteoglycans. The disc is the largest avascular structure in the body and is of much interest biomechanically due to the high societal burden of disc degeneration and back pain. Although the disc has been well characterized at the whole joint scale, it is not clear how the disc tissue microstructure confers its overall mechanical properties. In particular, there have been conflicting reports regarding the level of attachment between adjacent lamellae in the annulus, and the importance of these interfaces to the overall integrity of the disc is unknown. We used a polarized light micrograph of the bovine tail disc in transverse cross-section to develop an image-based finite element model incorporating sliding and separation between layers of the annulus, and subjected the model to axial compressive loading. Validation experiments were also performed on four bovine caudal discs. Interlamellar shear resistance had a strong effect on disc compressive stiffness, with a 40% drop in stiffness when the interface shear resistance was changed from fully bonded to freely sliding. By contrast, interlamellar cohesion had no appreciable effect on overall disc mechanics. We conclude that shear resistance between lamellae confers disc mechanical resistance to compression, and degradation of the interlamellar interface structure may be a precursor to macroscopic disc degeneration.

Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Fluctuation phenomena in electrochemistry part II. Modelling the noise sources

A discussion of the modelling of the primary and secondary noise sources introduced in the formalism of fluctuation phenomena in a previous report is presented. It is illustrated that the generalisation of the modelling of noise sources in mass transport as given by Tyagai is limited in its applicability. A general procedure for the same is discussed in detail.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Architectural modelling of maize under water stress

Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.

Characterization of disease resistance gene candidates of the nucleotide binding site (NBS) type from banana and correlation of a transcriptional polymorphism with resistance to Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense race 4

Most plant disease resistance (R) genes encode proteins with a nucleotide binding site and leucine-rich repeat structure (NBS-LRR). In this study, degenerate primers were used to amplify genomic NBS-type sequences from wild banana (Musa acuminata ssp. malaccensis) plants resistant to the fungal pathogen Fusarium oxysporum formae specialis (f. sp.) cubense (FOC) race 4. Five different classes of NBS-type sequences were identified and designated as resistance gene candidates (RGCs). The deduced amino acid sequences of the RGCs revealed the presence of motifs characteristic of the majority of known plant NBS-LRR resistance genes. Structural and phylogenetic analyses grouped the banana RGCs within the non-TIR (homology to Toll/interleukin-1 receptors) subclass of NBS sequences. Southern hybridization showed that each banana RGC is present in low copy number. The expression of the RGCs was assessed by RT-PCR in leaf and root tissues of plants resistant or susceptible to FOC race 4. RGC1, 3 and 5 showed a constitutive expression profile in both resistant and susceptible plants whereas no expression was detected for RGC4. Interestingly, RGC2 expression was found to be associated only to FOC race 4 resistant lines. This finding could assist in the identification of a FOC race 4 resistance gene.