Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts. CEPS Working Document No. 420/April 2016

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Future older generations will have increasingly better health and are likely to work longer. By combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data for seven European countries, we project the quantitative impact of ageing on public finances until 2040 and compare it to projected DDRs. We then simulate the public finance impact of changes in three key indicators related to the policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing and longer working lives. We do this by linking age-specific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge: first, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied – significantly so for some countries, e.g. Austria, Finland and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing has a modest effect (on public finances) except in the case of Sweden, where it is substantial. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is well captured by the simple DDR measure if immigrants are similar to the native population. Finally, increasing the length of working lives is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. Extending the length of working lives by three to four years over the next 25 years – equivalent to the increase in life expectancy – severely limits the impact of ageing on public transfers.

«Cidadania em Movimento» - Projeto de iIntervenção socioeducativa no bairro Las Palmeras em Córdoba, Espanha

Trabalho de projeto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre na área de Educação Social e Intervenção Comunitária

A inserção dos jovens no mercado de trabalho: o caso dos jovens com o ensino secundário

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão Estratégica de Recursos Humanos

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Das Prinzip der Freizügigkeit: eine Idee für alle

"Das Prinzip der Freizügigkeit. Eine Idee für alle". Presentation (in German) by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 2d Doctoral Seminar of the Center for Migration Law held in Oberdorf (Switzerland) on 30 November and 1 December 2012. In the presentation (in German), Charlotte Sieber-Gasser argues that there is a direct link between regional labour market integration, economic development and migration pressure. The link consists of the impact of labour market integration on added-value production: Through more added-value production in the global South, economic development in the region is more sustainable, jobs are created and brain drain is to a certain extent reversed. As this is acknowledged also by developing countries, more and more regional labour market integration measures emerge in the global South. These newer forms of regulation of the movement of labour is in some cases relatively unique and innovative. Charlotte Sieber-Gasser presents five examples of such newer regulation. The different models range from liberalisation restricted to high skilled labour and indirect liberalisation through the recognition of certificates to relatively far reaching liberalisation for particular groups of professionals and their families, also covering low skilled labour.

Análisis del seguro de desempleo en el Uruguay

Este documento analiza el programa de seguro de desempleo (SD) en Uruguay y su utilización por parte de las empresas. El SD en ese país se ha constituido en una de las principales políticas del Estado hacia el mercado laboral. A lo largo del estudio se describen las características del programa, la evolución de su cobertura y el perfil de sus beneficiarios, comparando el seguro uruguayo con esquemas vigentes en otros países. El documento también analiza en profundidad los microdatos del programa de seguro de desempleo provenientes de los registros administrativos del Banco de Previsión Social del Uruguay (BPS).

Cambios y continuidades en la movilidad laboral de la fuerza de trabajo femenina en México

Este artículo tiene por objeto analizar diferentes transiciones laborales de mujeres mexicanas de tres generaciones, desde su primer empleo hasta los 30 años. La finalidad es doble: por una parte, observar procesos de informalización, descalificación, desalarización y tercerización del mercado de trabajo femenino en los últimos años, y, por la otra, analizar en qué medida estos procesos se manifiestan en la movilidad individual de las trayectorias laborales femeninas. En primer término, los hallazgos indicarían que los cambios generacionales asociados a las transiciones laborales en el sector de actividad, la posición en el empleo, el estatus ocupacional y la rama de la economía no son procesos intercambiables. En segundo lugar, reflejarían que las movilidades estructurales del mercado de trabajo no se corresponden, punto por punto, con las movilidades individuales de la fuerza de trabajo femenina. Los resultados también dan cuenta de que las condiciones de entrada al mercado laboral tienen gran incidencia en las posibilidades futuras de las trayectorias laborales de las mujeres.

Perú, 2002-2012: crecimiento, cambio estructural y formalización

Cambiando drásticamente de tendencia, se ha observado un proceso de formalización laboral en el Perú, en un contexto de crecimiento económico, durante el cual también se impulsó una reforma laboral que creó un régimen especial para micro y pequeñas empresas —lo que redujo los costos laborales— y se introdujeron mejoras en la inspección del trabajo. Mediante un panel de regiones subnacionales se analiza el papel cumplido por estos factores en el proceso de formalización. En primer lugar, se confirma que la composición del crecimiento importa para la formalización. Al analizar de manera conjunta los factores económicos (crecimiento y crecimiento sectorial) y los cambios institucionales recientes, se encuentra que —en el período analizado— dichos factores explican la mayor parte del proceso de formalización y que el crecimiento de los sectores intensivos en empleo agrega poder explicativo, mientras que los cambios institucionales no incidieron significativamente a pesar de su magnitud.

The incidence and intensity of employer funded training: Australian evidence on the impact of flexible work

The interaction between the growth of flexible forms of employment and employer funded training is important for understanding labour market performance. In particular, the idea of a trade-off has been advanced to describe potential market failures in the employment of flexible workers. This study finds that evidence of a trade-off is apparent in both the incidence and intensity of employer funded training. Flexible workers receive training that is 50-80% less intense than the workforce average. Casual workers - especially males - suffer more acutely from the trade-off. This suggests that flexible production externalities may seriously reduce human capital formation in the workforce.

Access to parental leave in Australia: evidence from Negotiating the Life Course

Although unpaid parental leave has been available to most Australian employees for more than a decade, and public sector legislation and company policies provide at least some employees with an entitlement to paid parental leave, there is as yet little information available on accessibility, take-up rates or the extent to which current leave provisions meet the needs of parents. In this paper, data from the Negotiating the Life Course survey are used to examine the first of these issues: accessibility. Variations in perceptions of access to paid and unpaid parental leave are examined in bivariate and multivariate analyses, which emphasise marked divisions in the Australian labour market between permanent and casual status. The data also suggest that access to unpaid parental leave is more variable than might be expected from a reading of formal legislative provisions, and raise questions over the accessibility of paid parental leave to those who need it most-employees with young children.

The return to schooling: Estimates from a sample of young Australian twins

This study uses a sample of young Australian twins to examine whether the findings reported in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp.1157-73] and [Miller, P.W., Mulvey, C and Martin, N., (1994). 'What Do Twins Studies Tell Us About the Economic Returns to Education?: A Comparison of Australian and US Findings', Western Australian Labour Market Research Centre Discussion Paper 94/4] are robust to choice of sample and dependent variable. The economic return to schooling in Australia is between 5 and 7 percent when account is taken of genetic and family effects using either fixed-effects models or the selection effects model of Ashenfelter and Krueger. Given the similarity of the findings in this and in related studies, it would appear that the models applied by [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73] are robust. Moreover, viewing the OLS and IV estimators as lower and upper bounds in the manner of [Black, Dan A., Berger, Mark C., and Scott, Frank C., (2000). 'Bounding Parameter Estimates with Nonclassical Measurement Error', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No.451, pp.739-748], it is shown that the bounds on the return to schooling in Australia are much tighter than in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73], and the return is bounded at a much lower level than in the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Graduate overeducation and its effects among recently arrived immigrants to Australia: A longitudinal survey

There is increasing importance attached to skill-based immigration in many countries including Australia. This paper investigates the incidences, determinants, and returns to graduate overeducation among tertiary qualified immigrants during the early phase of their settlement in Australia. We place particular emphasis on visa categories and region of origin. As expected, those on visas with higher skill requirements perform better in the labour market. The bulk of these are immigrants from English Speaking Backgrounds (ESB). Non-English Speaking Background (NESB) immigrants, on the other hand, have higher and persistent rates of overeducation. The wage returns to required and surplus education match the stylized facts of overeducation for ESB and Other NESB immigrants while Asian NESB immigrants receive no return to surplus education. Thus, the results suggest that NESB graduate immigrants are a heterogeneous group, with Asian graduate immigrants facing greater assimilation hurdles in the Australian labour market.

'Hybrids' and the gendering of computing jobs in Australia

This paper presents recent Australian evidence on the extent to which women are entering “hybrid” computing jobs combining technical and communication or “people management” skills, and the way these skill combinations are valued at organisational level. We draw on a survey of detailed occupational roles in large IT firms to examine the representation of women in a range of jobs consistent with the notion of “hybrid”, and analyse the discourse around these sorts of skills in a set of organisational case studies. Our research shows a traditional picture of labour market segmentation, with limited representation of women in high status jobs, and their relatively greater prevalence in more routine areas of the industry. While our case studies highlight perceptions of the need for hybrid roles and assumptions about the suitability of women for such jobs, the ongoing masculinity of core development functions appears untouched by this discourse.