Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

An estimate of road accident costs in Singapore

An earlier study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed that the annual cost of road traffic accidents in 2001 was S$699.36 million which was 0.5% of the annual GDP. This paper attempts to update of the cost estimates of road traffic accidents. More precise methods of computing the human cost, lost output and property damage are adopted which grew in an annual cost of S$610.3 million or 0.338% of the annual GDP in 2003. A more conservative estimate of S$878,000 for fatal accident is also obtained, compared to the earlier figure of S$1.4 million. This study has shown that it is necessary to update the annual traffic accident costs regularly, as the figures vary with the number of accidents which change with time.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Sustainability in road transport : an integrated life cycle analysis for estimating emissions

Despite of a significant contribution of transport sector in the global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of global energy consumption, green house gas emissions and environmental pollutions. A complete look onto the whole life cycle environmental inventory of this sector will be helpful to generate a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly compare environmental impacts of different modes of transport, but very few consider impacts other than the operational phase. Ignoring the impacts of non-operational phases, e.g., manufacture, construction, maintenance, may not accurately reflect total contributions on emissions. Moreover an integrated study for all motorized modes of road transport is also needed to achieve a holistic estimation. The objective of this study is to develop a component based life cycle inventory model which considers impacts of both operational and non-operational phases of the whole life as well as different transport modes. In particular, the whole life cycle of road transport has been segmented into vehicle, infrastructure, fuel and operational components and inventories have been conducted on each component. The inventory model has been demonstrated using the road transport of Singapore. Results show that total life cycle green house gas emissions from the road transport sector of Singapore is 7.8 million tons per year, among which operational phase and non-operational phases contribute about 55% and about 45%, respectively. Total amount of criteria air pollutants are 46, 8.5, 33.6, 13.6 and 2.6 thousand tons per year for CO, SO2, NOx, VOC and PM10, respectively. From the findings, it can be deduced that stringent government policies on emission control measures have a significant impact on reducing environmental pollutions. In combating global warming and environmental pollutions the promotion of public transport over private modes is an effective sustainable policy.

Impact of garment industries on road safety in metropolitan Dhaka

There are about 4,000 garment industries in Bangladesh, most of them are clustered in and around the capital city. Together they account for 75 percent of the country's export earnings and employ around 1.8 million people which is almost one half of the total industrial workforce of the country. Though it is the most important economy sector of Bangladesh, unplanned and haphazardly built garment factories are also inducing many social, housing and most importantly urban transportation problems which are a great cause of concern. This study investigates the impact of garment industries on transportation, in particular road safety issues of garment workers. Data is collected to identify the locational problems of garment factories, spatial distribution of worker residences, and their travel pattern as well as to assess their walking and road crossing problems. Finally, recommendations are put forward to tackle transport problems arising from these unplanned establishments of export oriented garments industries in Dhaka Metropolitan City.

Termination And Discipline Procedures, Disputes Procedures & Work Evaluation

This series of paper examines industrial issues from a nonprofit management perspective.

Empirical IEEE 802.11p performance evaluation on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for inter-vehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles. Metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined.

Dynamic compression improves biosynthesis of human zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis patients

Objective: We hypothesize that chondrocytes from distinct zones of articular cartilage respond differently to compressive loading, and that zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis (OA) patients can benefit from optimized compressive stimulation. Therefore, we aimed to determine the transcriptional response of superficial (S) and middle/deep (MD) zone chondrocytes to varying dynamic compressive strain and loading duration. To confirm effects of compressive stimulation on overall matrix production, we subjected zonal chondrocytes to compression for 2 weeks. Design: Human S and MD chondrocytes from osteoarthritic joints were encapsulated in 2% alginate, pre-cultured, and subjected to compression with varying dynamic strain (5, 15, 50% at 1 Hz) and loading duration (1, 3, 12 h). Temporal changes in cartilage-specific, zonal, and dedifferentiation genes following compression were evaluated using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The benefits of long-term compression (50% strain, 3 h/day, for 2 weeks) were assessed by measuring construct glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and compressive moduli, as well as immunostaining. Results: Compressive stimulation significantly induced aggrecan (ACAN), COL2A1, COL1A1, proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), and COL10A1 gene expression after 2 h of unloading, in a zone-dependent manner (P < 0.05). ACAN and PRG4 mRNA levels depended on strain and load duration, with 50% and 3 h loading resulting in highest levels (P < 0.05). Long-term compression increased collagen type II and ACAN immunostaining and total GAG (P < 0.05), but only S constructs showed more PRG4 stain, retained more GAG (P < 0.01), and developed higher compressive moduli than non-loaded controls. Conclusions: The biosynthetic activity of zonal chondrocytes from osteoarthritis joints can be enhanced with selected compression regimes, indicating the potential for cartilage tissue engineering applications. © 2012 Osteoarthritis Research Society International.

The Road to Whatever: Middle Class Cultgure and the Crisis of Adolescence

In this groundbreaking book, acclaimed sociologist and Pulitzer Prize finalist Elliott Currie draws on years of interviews to offer a profound investigation of what has gone wrong for so many “mainstream” American adolescents. Rejecting such predictable answers as TV violence, permissiveness, and inherent evil, Currie links this crisis to a pervasive “culture of exclusion” fostered by a society in which medications trump guidance and a punitive “zero tolerance” approach to adolescent misbehavior has become the norm. Broadening his inquiry, he dissects the changes in middle-class life that stratify the world into "winners" and "losers," imposing an extraordinarily harsh culture—and not just on kids. Vivid, compelling, and deeply empathetic, The Road to Whatever is a stark indictment of a society that has lost the will—or the capacity—to care.