Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Group size effects on foraging and vigilance in migratory Tibetan antelope

Large group sizes have been hypothesized to decrease predation risk and increase food competition. We investigated group size effects on vigilance and foraging behaviour during the migratory period in female Tibetan antelope Pantholops hodgsoni, in the Kekexili Nature Reserve of Qinghai Province, China. During June to August, adult female antelope and yearling females gather in large migratory groups and cross the Qinghai-Tibet highway to calving grounds within the Nature Reserve and return to Qumalai county after calving. Large groups of antelope aggregate in the migratory corridor where they compete for limited food resources and attract the attention of mammalian and avian predators and scavengers. We restricted our sampling to groups of less than 30 antelopes and thus limit our inference accordingly. Focal-animal sampling was used to record the behaviour of the free-ranging antelope except for those with lambs. Tibetan antelope spent more time foraging in larger groups but frequency of foraging bouts was not affected by group size. Conversely, the time spent vigilant and frequency of vigilance bouts decreased with increased group size. We suggest that these results are best explained by competition for food and risk of predation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breeding behavior under temporal risk of predation in male root voles (Microtus oeconomus)

We examined breeding behavior responses of male root votes (Microtus oeconomus) to temporal risk of predation by using acute and chronic exposure to predator odor. The 2 series of exposure experiments provided 2 types of temporal patterns of risk: continuous safety with a brief period of risk and Sustained risk with a brief period of safety. Male root votes that were acutely exposed to predator odor for I h suppressed their breeding behavior, but bred immediately after exposure to control odor for I h. Those chronically exposed to predator odor for 20 days maintained behavioral suppression during the 1-h period of exposure to control odor. Acutely exposed males did not change their physiological patterns of breeding, but those chronically exposed to predator odor had reduced testosterone concentration and epididymis index. Our results indicate that breeding behavior in a given situation depends on the overall patterns of risk experienced by male root votes, and the acute and chronic stress responses that affect reproduction are responsible for different behavioral responses to the 2 types of temporal patterns of risk. We also discuss the reasons for conflicting results about breeding suppression of votes between previous studies in the laboratory and the field.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

Radon and King Solomons Miners: Faynan Orefeild, Jordanian desert

Grattan, J. Gilmore, G. Gilbertson, D. Pyatt, F.B. HUnt, C. McLaren, S. Phillips, P. Denman, A. Radon and King Solomons Miners: Paynan Orefield, Jordanian Desert. The Science of the Total Environment. 2004 319 pp 99-113

Rough set feature selection and rule induction for prediction of malignancy degree in brain glioma

X. Wang, J. Yang, R. Jensen and X. Liu, 'Rough Set Feature Selection and Rule Induction for Prediction of Malignancy Degree in Brain Glioma,' Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, vol. 83, no. 2, pp. 147-156, 2006.

Re-focusing risk assessment in forensic mental health nursing.

Editorial in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 2015, 22(7)

The effects of ageing and exercise on skeletal muscle structure and function

Musculoskeletal ageing is associated with profound morphological and functional changes that increase fall risk and disease incidence and is characterised by age-related reductions in motor unit number and atrophy of muscle fibres, particularly type II fibres. Decrements in functional strength and power are relatively modest until the 6th decade, after which the rate of loss exponentially accelerates, particularly beyond the 8th decade of life. Physical activity is a therapeutic modality that can significantly attenuate age-related decline. The underlying signature of ageing, as manifested by perturbed redox homeostasis, leads to a blunting of acute and chronic redox regulated exercise adaptations. Impaired redox regulated exercise adaptations are mechanistically related to altered exercise-induced reactive oxygen and nitrogen species generation and a resultant failure to properly activate redox regulated signaling cascades. Despite the aforementioned specific impairment in redox signaling, exercise induces a plethora of beneficial effects, irrespective of age. There is, therefore, strong evidence for promoting regular physical exercise, especially progressive resistance training as a lifelong habitual practice.

Stochastic Refinement of the Visual Hull to Satisfy Photometric and Silhouette Consistency Constraints

An iterative method for reconstructing a 3D polygonal mesh and color texture map from multiple views of an object is presented. In each iteration, the method first estimates a texture map given the current shape estimate. The texture map and its associated residual error image are obtained via maximum a posteriori estimation and reprojection of the multiple views into texture space. Next, the surface shape is adjusted to minimize residual error in texture space. The surface is deformed towards a photometrically-consistent solution via a series of 1D epipolar searches at randomly selected surface points. The texture space formulation has improved computational complexity over standard image-based error approaches, and allows computation of the reprojection error and uncertainty for any point on the surface. Moreover, shape adjustments can be constrained such that the recovered model's silhouette matches those of the input images. Experiments with real world imagery demonstrate the validity of the approach.

A Local Circuit Model of Learned Straitial and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward

Before choosing, it helps to know both the expected value signaled by a predictive cue and the associated uncertainty that the reward will be forthcoming. Recently, Fiorillo et al. (2003) found the dopamine (DA) neurons of the SNc exhibit sustained responses related to the uncertainty that a cure will be followed by reward, in addition to phasic responses related to reward prediction errors (RPEs). This suggests that cue-dependent anticipations of the timing, magnitude, and uncertainty of rewards are learned and reflected in components of the DA signals broadcast by SNc neurons. What is the minimal local circuit model that can explain such multifaceted reward-related learning? A new computational model shows how learned uncertainty responses emerge robustly on single trial along with phasic RPE responses, such that both types of DA responses exhibit the empirically observed dependence on conditional probability, expected value of reward, and time since onset of the reward-predicting cue. The model includes three major pathways for computing: immediate expected values of cures, timed predictions of reward magnitudes (and RPEs), and the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The first two model pathways refine those previously modeled by Brown et al. (1999). A third, newly modeled, pathway is formed by medium spiny projection neurons (MSPNs) of the matrix compartment of the striatum, whose axons co-release GABA and a neuropeptide, substance P, both at synapses with GABAergic neurons in the SNr and with the dendrites (in SNr) of DA neurons whose somas are in ventral SNc. Co-release enables efficient computation of sustained DA uncertainty responses that are a non-monotonic function of the conditonal probability that a reward will follow the cue. The new model's incorporation of a striatal microcircuit allowed it to reveals that variability in striatal cholinergic transmission can explain observed difference, between monkeys, in the amplitutude of the non-monotonic uncertainty function. Involvement of matriceal MSPNs and striatal cholinergic transmission implpies a relation between uncertainty in the cue-reward contigency and action-selection functions of the basal ganglia. The model synthesizes anatomical, electrophysiological and behavioral data regarding the midbrain DA system in a novel way, by relating the ability to compute uncertainty, in parallel with other aspects of reward contingencies, to the unique distribution of SP inputs in ventral SN.

Becoming a CEO: an exploration of the theory and practice of effective organisational leadership

This Thesis is an exploration of potential enhancement in effectiveness, personally, professionally and organisationally through the use of Theory as an Apparatus of Thought. Enhanced effectiveness was sought by the practitioner (Subject), while in transition to becoming Chief Executive of his organization. The introduction outlines the content and the structure of the University College Cork DBA. Essay One outlines what Theory is, what Adult Mental Development is and an exploration of Theories held in the Authors past professional practice. Immunity to change is also reflected on. Essay Two looks at the construct of the key Theories used in the Thesis. Prof. Robert Kegan’s Theory of Adult Mental Development was used to aid the generation of insight. The other key Theories used were The Theory of The Business, Theory of the Co‐operative and a Theory of Organisational Leadership. Essay Three explores the application of the key Theories in a professional setting. The findings of the Thesis were that the subject was capable of dealing with increased environmental complexity and uncertainty by using Theory as an Apparatus of Thought, which in turn enhanced personal, professional and organisational effectiveness. This was achieved by becoming more aware of the Theories held by the practitioner, the experiences from the application of those Theories, which then led to greater insight. The author also found that a detailed understanding of the Theory of the Business and a Theory of Leadership would support any new CEO in the challenging early part of their tenure.

Effects of synbiotics on cancer risk biomarkers

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cause of death from cancer in the world and second most common (behind lung cancer) in developed countries. In recent years there has been much interest in the potential use of prebiotics, probiotics and synbiotics in the prevention and treatment of CRC. We have previously shown that synbiotic consumption in Azoxymethane treated rats modulates the immune system, influences the genotoxic potential of caecal contents and reduces the number of colonic tumours compared to control rats who did not receive the synbiotic. The aim of the current study was to identify biomarkers suitable for use as cancer risk markers and as intervention markers. A second aim was to determine the influence of synbiotic consumption on cancer risk biomarkers such as in vivo colonic mucosal proliferation and genotoxic damage along with examining the genotoxic, cytotoxic and tumour promoting potential of faecal water (FW). Synbiotic consumption altered the composition of the gastrointestinal flora and reduced in vivo genotoxic damage and the genotoxic potential of FW in cancer and polyp subjects. Synbiotic consumption also reduced the proliferative activity in the colonic mucosa in polyp subjects. In both cancer and polyp subjects gene expression in the colonic mucosa was modulated in synbiotic consuming subjects. In this and other studies the activity of natural killer cells, the level of PGE2 in FW, IL-12 production by PBMCs, genotoxic damage in the colonic mucosa and the tumour promoting activities of FW have been identified as possible biomarkers of cancer risk. Future large scale studies investigating these parameters in healthy and diseased individuals are needed to confirm the suitability of these markers in assessing cancer risk and the role of synbiotics in modulating them.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.