Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

Alcances y limitaciones del tercer pilar de la doctrina de responsabilidad de proteger en la intervención militar de la crisis Libia (2011-2013)

El siguiente trabajo de investigación pretende analizar no solo la manera en la que la Intervención en la crisis Libia (2011-2013) se vio justificada a la luz de lo que establece la Doctrina de R2P, sino también investigar si logró cumplir con los objetivos de la misma. Con tal propósito, se evaluará si la intervención Militar Humanitaria por parte de la OTAN bajo la resolución 1973 del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, se justifica desde los objetivos que establece la Doctrina de Responsabilidad de Proteger y cumple parcialmente con los propósitos fundamentales de prevenir, reaccionar y reconstruir en la crisis Libia de 2011- 2013. El método que se utilizará para responder a la pregunta de este estudio de caso, será en su totalidad cualitativo, descriptivo y analítico. En lo que respecta a las fuentes, se usarán fuentes secundarias como artículos académicos y fuentes primarias provenientes de noticias de periódicos, revistas, resoluciones AG y del CS de la ONU.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Australia's National Medicines Policy using geographical mapping

Background: There has been a proliferation of quality use of medicines activities in Australia since the 1990s. However, knowledge of the nature and extent of these activities was lacking. A mechanism was required to map the activities to enable their coordination. Aims: To develop a geographical mapping facility as an evaluative tool to assist the planning and implementation of Australia's policy on the quality use of medicines. Methods: A web-based database incorporating geographical mapping software was developed. Quality use of medicines projects implemented across the country was identified from project listings funded by the Quality Use of Medicines Evaluation Program, the National Health and Medical Research Council, Mental Health Strategy, Rural Health Support, Education and Training Program, the Healthy Seniors Initiative, the General Practice Evaluation Program and the Drug Utilisation Evaluation Network. In addition, projects were identified through direct mail to persons working in the field. Results: The Quality Use of Medicines Mapping Project (QUMMP) was developed, providing a Web-based database that can be continuously updated. This database showed the distribution of quality use of medicines activities by: (i) geographical region, (ii) project type, (iii) target group, (iv) stakeholder involvement, (v) funding body and (vi) evaluation method. At September 2001, the database included 901 projects. Sixty-two per cent of projects had been conducted in Australian capital cities, where approximately 63% of the population reside. Distribution of projects varied between States. In Western Australia and Queensland, 36 and 73 projects had been conducted, respectively, representing approximately two projects per 100 000 people. By comparison, in South Australia and Tasmania approximately seven projects per 100 000 people were recorded, with six per 100 000 people in Victoria and three per 100 000 people in New South Wales. Rural and remote areas of the country had more limited project activity. Conclusions: The mapping of projects by geographical location enabled easy identification of high and low activity areas. Analysis of the types of projects undertaken in each region enabled identification of target groups that had not been involved or services that had not yet been developed. This served as a powerful tool for policy planning and implementation and will be used to support the continued implementation of Australia's policy on the quality use of medicines.

The new Africa and Brazil in the Lula era: the rebirth of Brazilian Atlantic Policy

In the post-Cold War world, Africa has been an important focus of Brazilian foreign policy. Having a significant historical weight in building our nation, African countries are also part of the moves adopted by Brazil's foreign policy. The main purpose of the present text is to show this relevant regional dimension regarding Brazil's international insertion during the Lula era. The work is divided in two parts: the first part approaches Africa's international insertion throughout recent years and the second analyses the dimension occupied by African affairs in Brazil during the Lula era. The main argument is that the new role played by Africa in the international scene coincides with a global Brazil

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Cohesion policy in the European Union: a brief critical review

Over the past four decades the EU cohesion policy’s focus, objectives and content have experienced significant changes as a result of successive reforms aiming at adapting it to a Union in constant evolution. In the early stages, cohesion policy had eminently redistributive goals and it assumed an explicit spatial dimension. In the late nineties, the possibility of an extension towards Eastern European countries and the limited willingness of net contributors to increase funding led to a turning point in cohesion policy. The increased importance of economic growth and job creation in the 2000’s, within the cohesion policy’s context, has led to a misrepresentation of its essence and motivations. Cohesion was losing importance towards competitiveness and regional equity towards national efficiency. Today, cohesion policy is for many EU countries the main mean for mobilising investment in a context of budgetary constraints and credit rationing. In light of the available evidence, it is likely that the overall design and priorities of the current cohesion policy have a limited impact in terms of convergence in many EU regions, especially in the less developed regions. This paper’s main objectives are to analyse the evolution of European cohesion policy throughout its history, to present a picture of cohesion policy in the 2014-2020 programming period and to discuss the main problems associated with its design, priorities and programming model.

Discretionary Policy in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Debt

This paper examines the interactions between multiple national fiscal policy- makers and a single monetary policy maker in response to shocks to government debt in some or all of the countries of a monetary union. We assume that national governments respond to excess debt in an optimal manner, but that they do not have access to a commitment technology. This implies that national fi scal policy gradually reduces debt: the lack of a commitment technology precludes a random walk in steady state debt, but the need to maintain national competitiveness avoids excessively rapid debt reduction. If the central bank can commit, it adjusts its policies only slightly in response to higher debt, allowing national fiscal policy to undertake most of the adjustment. However if it cannot commit, then optimal monetary policy involves using interest rates to rapidly reduce debt, with signifi cant welfare costs. We show that in these circumstances the central bank would do better to ignore national fiscal policies in formulating its policy.

Health care management autonomy: Evidence from the Catalonian hospital sector in a decentralised Spain

The organisation of inpatient care provision has undergone significant reform in many southern European countries. Overall across Europe, public management is moving towards the introduction of more flexibility and autonomy . In this setting, the promotion of the further decentralisation of health care provision stands out as a key salient policy option in all countries that have hitherto had a traditionally centralised structure. Yet, the success of the underlying incentives that decentralised structures create relies on the institutional design at the organisational level, especially in respect of achieving efficiency and promoting policy innovation without harming the essential principle of equal access for equal need that grounds National Health Systems (NHS). This paper explores some of the specific organisational developments of decentralisation structures drawing from the Spanish experience, and particularly those in the Catalonia. This experience provides some evidence of the extent to which organisation decentralisation structures that expand levels of autonomy and flexibility lead to organisational innovation while promoting activity and efficiency. In addition to this pure managerial decentralisation process, Spain is of particular interest as a result of the specific regional NHS decentralisation that started in the early 1980 s and was completed in 2002 when all seventeen autonomous communities that make up the country had responsibility for health care services.Already there is some evidence to suggest that this process of decentralisation has been accompanied by a degree of policy innovation and informal regional cooperation. Indeed, the Spanish experience is relevant because both institutional changes took place, namely managerial decentralisation leading to higher flexibility and autonomy- alongside an increasing political decentralisation at the regional level. The coincidence of both processes could potentially explain why some organisation and policy innovation resulting from policy experimentation at the regional level might be an additional featureto take into account when examining the benefits of decentralisation.

Il voto ticinese sull'iniziativa 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014

Riassunto Il presente studio verte sull'analisi del voto relativo all'iniziativa popolare 'contro l'immigrazione di massa' del 9 febbraio 2014. In particolare, l'analisi si concentra sul voto avvenuto nel Ticino, il cantone svizzero in cui l'iniziativa ha avuto maggiore sostegno. Lo studio si è avvalso di un'inchiesta d'opinione rappresentativa realizzata dall'Osservatorio della vita politica regionale dell'Università di Losanna presso 1.429 cittadini ticinesi nei giorni successivi allo scrutinio. Dopo una contestualizzazione del voto del 9 febbraio rispetto alla storia delle votazioni sui temi di politica estera e migratoria, l'analisi si è concentrata sulla partecipazione al voto. Il ricorso a tre modelli interpretativi (delle risorse, della competenza e della mobilitazione) ha permesso di mostrare come il voto del 9 febbraio sia caratterizzato in particolare modo dal senso del dovere, dall'interesse per la politica e dal legame di partito. L'analisi dell'orientamento di voto evidenzia l'influenza delle dimensioni economiche, politiche, identitarie, e soprattutto, alla stregua di altri voti nel passato recente di questo cantone, una forte tensione tra centro e periferia. Dall'analisi del voto del 9 febbraio emerge un forte timore che vede nel Ticino una 'doppia periferia', verso Berna e in relazione alla vicina Lombardia. Parole chiave: iniziativa popolare, partecipazione, orientamento di voto, centro-periferia. Résumé Cette étude porte sur l'analyse du vote sur l'initiative populaire 'contre l'immigration de masse' du 9 février 2014 et, plus précisément, sur le vote qui s'est déroulé au Tessin, canton suisse dans lequel l'initiative a obtenu le plus large soutien. L'étude a été menée à l'aide d'une enquête d'opinion représentative réalisée par l'Observatoire de la vie politique régionale de l'Université de Lausanne auprès de 1.429 citoyens tessinois dans les jours suivant le scrutin. Après une contextualisation du vote du 9 février par rapport à l'histoire des votations sur les thèmes de la politique étrangère et de l'immigration, l'analyse a porté sur la participation au vote. À ce propos, l'utilisation de trois modèles explicatifs (des ressources, de la compétence et de la mobilisation) a permis de dévoiler que le vote a été caractérisé plus particulièrement par le sens du devoir (habitus du vote), par l'intérêt pour la politique et par le lien avec un parti. L'analyse de l'orientation du vote montre l'influence des aspects économiques, politiques et identitaire ainsi que, à l'instar d'autres votations récemment passées dans le canton italophone, des raisons qui mettent en évidence une vision contrastée du Tessin et notamment le risque de devenir une 'double périphérie' par rapport à Berne et à la Lombardie. Mots-clés: initiative populaire, participation, choix du vote, centre-périphérie. Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert das Abstimmungsverhalten anlässlich der eidgenössischen Volksinitiative 'Gegen Masseneinwanderung' vom 9. Februar 2014. Die Analyse beschränkt sich auf die Abstimmung im Kanton Tessin, wo die Initiative am stärksten unterstützt wurde. Die Studie wurde vom Observatorium des regionalen politischen Lebens der Universität Lausanne durchgeführt und basiert auf einer repräsentativen Umfrage, bei welcher 1429 Bürger des Kantons Tessin in den Tagen nach der Abstimmung teilnahmen. Zunächst wird die Abstimmung vom 9. Februar in Bezug auf die Geschichte verschiedener anderer Abstimmungen zum Thema Aussen- und Immigrationspolitik kontextualisiert. Die Analyse analysiert dann als erstes die Wahlbeteiligung: Der Gebrauch von drei Erklärungsmodellen (Ressourcen, Kompetenz und Mobilisierung) zeigt auf, dass der Entscheid, an der Abstimmung vom 9. Februar überhaupt teilzunehmen, vor allem von Pflichtbewusstsein, politischem Interesse und Parteibindung geprägt war. Das Abstimmungsverhalten selber war dann von ökonomischen und politischen Faktoren, von der eigenen Identität sowie insbesondere - und wie auch schon andere Abstimmungen in der jüngsten Vergangenheit des italienisch-sprechenden Kantons -von einer grossen Angst geprägt, dass das Tessin eine 'doppelte Peripherie' zwischen Bern und der Lombardei werden könnte. Stichwörter: Volksinitiative, Teilnahme, Abstimmungsverhalten, Zentrum-Peripherie Abstract This study focuses on the analysis of the federal vote on the popular initiative 'against mass immigration' of 9 February 2014. More precisely, the analysis focuses on the vote that took place in Ticino, the Swiss canton in which the popular initiative has received the widest support. The study was carried out by the Research Observatory for Regional Politics at the University of Lausanne using a representative survey among 1.429 citizens of Ticino during the days following the vote. After a contextualization of the vote of 9 February with respect to the history of referenda about foreign policy and immigration issues, the analysis first discusses voter turnout. In this regard, the use of three explanatory models (resources, expertise and mobilisation) reveals that participation in the vote of 9 February was especially characterized by one's sense of duty, political interest, and links with a political party. The decision how to vote was then influenced by economic, political and identity factors as well as - like other votes in the recent past in the Italian-speaking canton - the particular fear that Ticino would become a 'double periphery' vis-à-vis both Berne and Lombardy. Keywords: popular initiative, participation, vote, centre-periphery.

Ranking Regional Innovation Policies: DEA-based Benchmarking in an European Setting

Seudullinen innovaatio on monimutkainen ilmiö, joka usein sijaitsee paikallisten toimijoiden keskinäisen vuorovaikutuksen kentässä. Täten sitä on perinteisesti pidetty vaikeasti mitattavana ilmiönä. Työssä sovellettiin Data Envelopment Analysis menetelmää, joka on osoittautunut aiemmin menestyksekkääksi tapauksissa, joissa mitattavien syötteiden ja tuotteiden väliset suhteet eivät ole olleet ilmeisiä. Työssä luotiin konseptuaalinen malli seudullisen innovaation syötteistä ja tuotteista, jonka perusteella valittiin 12 tilastollisen muuttujan mittaristo. Käyttäen Eurostat:ia datalähteenä, lähdedata kahdeksaan muuttujsta saatiin seudullisella tasolla, sekä mittaristoa täydennettiin yhdellä kansallisella muuttujalla. Arviointi suoritettiin lopulta 45 eurooppalaiselle seudulle. Tutkimuksen painopiste oli arvioida DEA-menetelmän soveltuvuutta innovaatiojärjestelmän mittaamiseen, sillä menetelmää ei ole aiemmin sovellettu vastaavassa tapauksessa. Ensimmäiset tulokset osoittivat ylipäätään liiallisen korkeita tehokkuuslukuja. Korjaustoimenpiteitä erottelutarkkuuden parantamiseksi esiteltiin ja sovellettiin, jonka jälkeen saatiin realistisempia tuloksia ja ranking-lista arvioitavista seuduista. DEA-menetelmän todettiin olevan tehokas ja kiinnostava työkalu arviointikäytäntöjen ja innovaatiopolitiikan kehittämiseen, sikäli kun datan saatavuusongelmat saadaan ratkaistua sekä itse mallia tarkennettua.

China's 'Assertive’ South China Sea Policy And Rhetoric: Proactive, Reactive Or Myth?

In March 2010, Chinese State Councillor, Dai Bingguo, in a private meeting with US Deputy Secretary of State, James Steinberg, allegedly referred to the South China Sea (SCS) as one of the country’s ‘core interests’, a term normally only used to refer to regions like Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang upon whose sovereignty Beijing will make no compromises. This alleged wording by Mr Dai caused a strong global reaction, with many countries around the world expressing a fear that China, on the back of its rise to the status of the world's second largest economic power, was now about to implement a more assertive foreign policy more in keeping with its new status of global superpower. As the use of the term ‘core interest’ took place in a private meeting and appears to have been subsequently leaked, it is impossible to prove what was said or meant, yet in 2011, with China and the US continuing to eye each other with suspicion, the adverse repercussions of people trying to deduce what was meant are undeniable. By analysing the views of experts and the evolution or otherwise of Chinese rhetoric and policy towards the SCS, this thesis will show how the alleged use of a term in a private meeting can have consequences that far exceed what was originally intended. It will also show that it is highly unlikely that China’s maritime policy is becoming more assertive as, at China's present stage of social and economic development, it simply cannot afford the ill will and adverse consequences that would result from an act of international aggression. It will show how easy it seems to be for a country like the US to project a misleading image of another country’s intentions, which can in turn serve partially to mask its own intentions. Finally, it will show that the China’s stance on the SCS is starting to be seen by the world as a litmus test for the assertiveness of overall Chinese foreign policy.

“THE PATIENT SURVIVED DESPITE THE TREATMENT”. A study of Finnish health policy and New Public Management. Case: The Government Resolution on the Health 2015 public health programme.

Internationally, Finland has been among the most respected countries during several decades in terms of public health. WHO has had the most significant influence on Finnish health policy and the relationship has traditionally been warm. However, the situation has slightly changed in the last 10-20 years. The objectives of Finnish national health policy have been to secure the best possible health for the population and to minimize disparities in health between different population groups. Nevertheless, although the state of public health and welfare has steadily improved, the socioeconomic disparities in health have increased. This qualitative case study will demonstrate why health is political and why health matters. It will also present some recommendations for research topics and administrative reforms. It will be argued that lack of political interest in health policy leads to absence of health policy visions and political commitment, which can be disastrous for public health. This study will investigate how Finnish health policy is defined and organised, and it will also shed light on Finnish health policy formation processes and actors. Health policy is understood as a broader societal construct covering the domains of different ministries, not just Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (MSAH). The influences of economic recession of the 1990s, state subsidy reform in 1993, globalisation and the European Union will be addressed, as well. There is not much earlier Finnish research done on health policy from political science viewpoint. Therefore, this study is interdisciplinary and combines political science with administrative science, contemporary history and health policy research with a hint of epidemiology. As a method, literature review, semi-structured interviews and policy analysi will be utilised. Institutionalism, policy transfer, and corporatism are understood as the theoretical framework. According to the study, there are two health policies in Finland: the official health policy and health policy generated by industry, media and various interest organisations. The complex relationships between the Government and municipalities, and on the other hand, the MSAH and National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) seemed significant in terms of Finnish health policy coordination. The study also showed that the Investigated case, Health 2015, does not fulfil all necessary criteria for a successful public health programme. There were also several features both in Health 2015 and Finnish health policy, which can be interpreted in NPM framework and seen having NPM influences.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.